BlackLagoon
Member
Yeah, while one shouldn't trivialize the problems of far right bullshit gaining traction on social media, Trump is getting the amount of power he is getting because of weaknesses in the American political system. He managed to coup the Republican nomination by splitting the establishment, boosted by early victories like getting a full pot of delegates from one state early on with only 30-35% of the vote. Then he got the backing of the Republican party, which meant a huge mass of conservative voters who would vote for the GOP candidate no matter what since there is no other realistic alternative.That's a crazy bet to do.
There are basically four more or less reasonable results of the upcoming election:
1. CDU/CSU/SPD coalition stays in power, as does Merkel. By far the most likely result
2. CDU/CSU/FDP coalition. Merkel stays in power
3. SPD/Greens/Linke coalition. Merkel loses power, Germany would actually be significantly more to the left with this result.
4. CDU/CSU/Greens coalition. Merkel stays in power, Germany would be a little more to the left, but this is very unlikely.
No atleast semi-reasonable result involves the AFD and almost all of them involve CDU/CSU as the major party of a coalition.
Most European countries have more resilient party nomination procedures, making the far/populist right contained to their own fringe parties. And there usually are enough alternatives that that their reach is limited to those who want exactly what they're selling, which puts a ceiling on how large they can grow. Thus without any chance of getting a full majority in the legislature their only path to power is coalitions with other parties, which means moderating their policies and infuriating their base. Or more realistically - simply being stuck in opposition and never accomplishing anything of note.