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[Hollywood]

With the 8 extra months or whatever they have from XBox 360 to Revolution launch? No XBox's being sold on the market, stock getting cleared out or whatever ... think it will catch it? I say it can gain a good half a mil on it in the US, so will that be enough?

 

[God's Hand]

Duh. And Nintendo will make mention of this at E3 for sure. Still a lot of games coming out, and GC is still in production, so yeah, it will end up 2nd this gen.

 

[Ryudo]

With the 8 extra months or whatever they have from XBox 360 to Revolution launch? No XBox's being sold on the market, stock getting cleared out or whatever ... think it will catch it? I say it can gain a good half a mil on it in the US, so will that be enough?

The damage is already done, its like shooting a hoop after the buzzer.

 

[Property of Jumpship]

What you should be asking is does it matter? If Nintendo catches them this year Microsoft can laugh it off and bitch slap them with X360 number next year. This year is so fucking over.

 

[Lindsay]

Doubt it since they won't do the reasonable thing ang drop to $50 to create a fire sale.

 

[Pedigree Chum]

Yeah, with MS stopping production of Xbox it'll happen.

I think the biggest problem with this is keeping good will with Xbox1 gamers, stopping hardware and no BC is going to piss off people who bough Xbox last year for Halo 2. Sony is doing this shit right, transitioning nicely from PS2 to PS3 with BC. This is why they'll maintain mindshare and marketshare next gen.

 

[Gahiggidy]

A Zelda pack-in would help.

 

[jimbo]

Not if they continue to sell hardware like they are currently doing.

 

[Mrbob]

Does it really matter anymore?

Microsoft has its sight on the bigger picture now - Securing a larger spot next gen.

 

[midnightguy]

of course Nintendo GAMECUBE is going to, ultimately, out-sell the XBOX worldwide, and probably in every major territory.


-Xbox production ends soon
-very close to Xbox2 release
+Zelda
+another price drop of Gamecube
+Revolution isnt come until mid-2006 at the soonest.


all these factors will contribute to Gamecube outselling Xbox and being #2 this generation

 

[cvxfreak]

Nintendo would need a price drop and/or redesign to help drive their efforts.

 

[Hollywood]

Does it really matter anymore?

Matters about as much as counting a small sales 'victory' when you are selling your product for a considerable loss over your competitors.

 

[Suikoguy]

Yeah, with MS stopping production of Xbox it'll happen.

I think the biggest problem with this is keeping good will with Xbox1 gamers, stopping hardware and no BC is going to piss off people who bough Xbox last year for Halo 2. Sony is doing this shit right, transitioning nicely from PS2 to PS3 with BC. This is why they'll maintain mindshare and marketshare next gen.

For fun today, (and cause i'm leaving)

3 people today were going to buy an xbox.
I just casually let them know that starting August MS was not going to be making any more xboxes. I did not mention anything about the 360 unless they asked, and did not mention anything about games so they could draw their own conclusions.

2 changed their minds, both bought a PS2 (one used, one new).
1 already had an xbox and games, and was buying a replacement since his broke.

I'm not sure how this will play out after seeing reactions today.

 

[Mrbob]

Matters about as much as counting a small sales 'victory' when you are selling your product for a considerable loss over your competitors.

Eh? Do you own MS or Nintendo stock?

 

[golem]

gamecube fans need to look up pyrrhic victory

 

[Pedigree Chum]

Does it really matter anymore?

Microsoft has its sight on the bigger picture now - Securing a larger spot next gen.

I think the biggest problem with this is keeping good will with Xbox1 gamers, stopping hardware and no BC is going to piss off people who bough Xbox last year for Halo 2. Sony is doing this shit right, transitioning nicely from PS2 to PS3 with BC. This is why they'll maintain mindshare and marketshare next gen.

That matters when you wnt to secure a larger spot next-gen. MS needs the casuals, and by the way they're treating them, there's going to be a lot of pissed off Xbox owners this holiday season.

 

[Mrbob]

Who says there won't be BC? You? I'll wait for MS final word on the subject.

Yes, due to userbase differences I do agree MS having BC is more important than Sony.

 

[909er]

Worldwide, probably. It's only a million difference(maybe more like 1.5 now)

But in America? No way. It's a over 3 million gap in NA, and it's gonna keep growing until Xbox's run out.

Asia, obviously.

Europe, maybe. The stated gap is 1.3 million(or was it 1.7 million?) but I still don't think that GC can catch up there.

The bigger question is, does it matter? That's like beating some guys' high school 100 m time after he's moved on to the Olympics.

 

[Hollywood]

Eh? Do you own MS or Nintendo stock?

Neither, but you asked if it matters. You could say so a lot of things sales wise don't really matter.

 

[Odysseus]

Worldwide, probably.

United States, nope.

 

[Pedigree Chum]

Who says there won't be BC? You? I'll wait for MS final word on the subject.

Yes, due to userbase differences I do agree MS having BC is more important than Sony.

IMO it's not just the userbase difference, but the fact that MS is launching only 4 years after Xbox1 and only one year after Halo 2 (which sold a shitload of system with it). Many XBox owners will have only owned the system for 1-2 years before X360 comes out. And they're going to be like, "WTF, I dropped a few hundred on this and now it's not being supported, and X360 doesn't support my old games?". Not a good position for MS to be in.

If there is BC, it'll help curtail some of the damage. But people that recently bought XBox1 are still going to feel burned.

 

[Mrbob]

Neither, but you asked if it matters. You could say so a lot of things sales wise don't really matter.

Yeah and what I'm saying is that MS is focusing on next gen. So if they lose some sales this gen it doesn't matter if they succeed in creating a much larger userbase next gen.

MS may reach 25 million by the end of this gen if they kept going. Now they may finish at 22-23 million. They'll sacrifice some loss this gen if they can get a 45-50 million userbase next gen.

f there is BC, it'll help curtail some of the damage. But people that recently bought XBox1 are still going to feel burned.

Most people who bought Xbox won't even consider a 360 right away.

 

[909er]

Yeah and what I'm saying is that MS is focusing on next gen. So if they lose some sales this gen it doesn't matter if they succeed in creating a much larger userbase next gen.

MS may reach 25 million by the end of this gen if they kept going. Now they may finish at 22-23 million. They'll sacrifice some loss this gen if they can get a 45-50 million userbase next gen.



Most people who bought Xbox won't even consider a 360 right away.

Especially the ones that bought it in the last year. Those tend to be the casual gamers that wait for what I think is called mass market price, while the hardcores are the ones that buy a new system at launch.

 

[Cubsfan23]

The damage is already done, its like shooting a hoop after the buzzer.

:lol

 

[boredJonathan]

Besides, has it even been confirmed that Microsoft will stop production on the original XBox??

 

[Pedigree Chum]

Most people who bought Xbox won't even consider a 360 right away.

Yeah, so? If Xbox hardware production stops, software production is going to slowdown considerably. So people with Xbox1 that wait for next-gen are going to feel the burn even if they don't pick up the X360.

 

[Mrbob]

You overstate things. Publishers aren't abondoning the platform. Especially since software sales are extremely strong for its userbase.

 

[AniHawk]

Besides, has it even been confirmed that Microsoft will stop production on the original XBox??

Well it'd be awfully hard without those nvidia chips.

 

[Odysseus]

Well it'd be awfully hard without those nvidia chips.

Not if the last shipment of chips is a bajillion (rounded).

 

[Pedigree Chum]

You overstate things. Publishers aren't abondoning the platform. Especially since software sales are extremely strong for its userbase.

At the moment. We'll see how things are early next year then.

 

[Hollywood]

Yeah and what I'm saying is that MS is focusing on next gen. So if they lose some sales this gen it doesn't matter if they succeed in creating a much larger userbase next gen.

MS may reach 25 million by the end of this gen if they kept going. Now they may finish at 22-23 million. They'll sacrifice some loss this gen if they can get a 45-50 million userbase next gen.

And if not, it was all a bust. They lose money for nothing while the competitors gained.

 

[Mrbob]

I agree MS is taking a big risk.

But big risks can lead too big rewards......or humiliated defeat.

 

[golem]

so what will gamecube fans say when the 360 starts outselling the gc on a month to month basis? we're beating the xbox(1)? its all about second place?

 

[IJoel]

I doubt it.

Nintendo would have a chance if there was software being released for it, but damn, there's barely any being released. I wouldn't be surprised if even after Xbox 360 is released, the Xbox releases still exceed the gamecube ones.

 

[Odysseus]

so what will gamecube fans say when the 360 starts outselling the gc on a month to month basis? we're beating the xbox(1)??

Well.... yeah.

 

[Pedigree Chum]

I agree MS is taking a big risk.

But big risks can lead too big rewards......or humiliated defeat.

Yeah. I think we agree that there's just as big of a chance of succuess with their plan for next-gen as there is failure (not in the DC sense, but in XBox1-type finish).

 

[Spike]

Who cares?

Second place is the first loser.

 

[gamergirly]

so what will gamecube fans say when the 360 starts outselling the gc on a month to month basis? we're beating the xbox(1)? its all about second place?

Why are you comparing a next gen system to a current gen system? Basically if MS stops production and there's no BC, it's going to slow down early adopters for Xbox 360 unless it has some killer software(and NO I'm not talking about that ruckus last night).

It's inevitable that GC IS going to outsell Xbox on a consistent basis once production stops. Xbox sales will end. And you'll be comparing 0 Xbox 1 sales to 100,000(and more around Zelda's release) GC sales.

So the question is if Nintendo fans are the ones that will need to be doing damage control? You should realize that regardless of how successful or unsuccessful Xbox 360 is, most people will still be playing and buying games and systems from THIS generation.....

 

[909er]

I doubt it.

Nintendo would have a chance if there was software being released for it, but damn, there's barely any being released. I wouldn't be surprised if even after Xbox 360 is released, the Xbox releases still exceed the gamecube ones.

Yeah, after the whole "no new releases for GC in April" thing, I don't think that GC is gonna do much better in 8 monthes. Especially with Nintendo development focused on the Revolution.

 

[Spike]

so what will gamecube fans say when the 360 starts outselling the gc on a month to month basis? we're beating the xbox(1)? its all about second place?

Most likely the same thing X360 fans will say when the PS2 continues to outsell the X360 on a month to month basis well after the PS3 releases...

 

[909er]

Why are you comparing a next gen system to a current gen system? Basically if MS stops production and there's no BC, it's going to slow down early adopters for Xbox 360 unless it has some killer software(and NO I'm not talking about that ruckus last night).

It's inevitable that GC IS going to outsell Xbox on a consistent basis once production stops. Xbox sales will end. And you'll be comparing 0 Xbox 1 sales to 100,000(and more around Zelda's release) GC sales.

So the question is if Nintendo fans are the ones that will need to be doing damage control? You should realize that regardless of how successful or unsuccessful Xbox 360 is, most people will still be playing and buying games and systems from THIS generation.....

Except, around the release of Zelda it's still probably gonna be 200,000 Xboxes to 100,000 GC's, and then the GC is just dry and devoid of games, whereas Xbox will probably still get meager support from a few publishers.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Worldwide, probably. It's only a million difference(maybe more like 1.5 now)

Ehh, more like ~2 last we saw a direct comparison, probably higher since then.

But in America? No way. It's a over 3 million gap in NA, and it's gonna keep growing until Xbox's run out.

Yes, but after that it will be some amount of GameCubes versus no Xboxes. Right now I'd still say probably no, but with things like Zelda, minor continued support, and who-knows-what lowered price for this holiday season and beyond, it certainly could make up the difference in the next few years. The lack of available Xbox 1 will probably help GCN sales a little, too; some of that demand for non-$300 systems that would've gone to an Xbox will now split itself between PS2 and GCN.

Even if GameCube sales decrease, say, 30% this year from last year (which is the trend thus far), and decreased another 30% next year, then from May 2005 through December 2006 would be 2.75 million hardware units.

 

[gamergirly]

Except, around the release of Zelda it's still probably gonna be 200,000 Xboxes to 100,000 GC's, and then the GC is just dry and devoid of games, whereas Xbox will probably still get meager support from a few publishers.

What brand of crack are you smoking again?

 

[909er]

Ehh, more like ~2 last we saw a direct comparison, probably higher since then.


Yes, but after that it will be some amount of GameCubes versus no Xboxes. Right now I'd still say probably no, but with things like Zelda, minor continued support, and who-knows-what lowered price for this holiday season and beyond, it certainly could make up the difference in the next few years. The lack of available Xbox 1 will probably help GCN sales a little, too; some of that demand for non-$300 systems that would've gone to an Xbox will now split itself between PS2 and GCN.

Even if GameCube sales decrease, say, 30% this year from last year (which is the trend thus far), and decreased another 30% next year, then from May 2005 through December 2006 would be 2.75 million hardware units.

And there will still probably be maybe 3 million more Xboxs sold in the US before it's good and dead. The GC just cannot catch up in the US unless something major instigates huge sales, and I'm willing to bet that Zelda isn't even up to that task this late in the game.

 

[909er]

What brand of crack are you smoking again?

What, are you saying that whats been happening for, oh, the last year and half will suddenly end this summer? As long as the systems are there, and it's not too close to Xbox 360 launch, Xbox will still sell good, and GC will still sell waht it is now, barring the one month Zelda boost.

 

[Fularu]

Except, around the release of Zelda it's still probably gonna be 200,000 Xboxes to 100,000 GC's, and then the GC is just dry and devoid of games, whereas Xbox will probably still get meager support from a few publishers.

no system produced and no bc will see that there is no more support for the system, just like the DC, the n64 or the genesis before it

No market growth will lead developpers into not supporting the system. While for the GC you'd be crazy if you don't think it will sell more than 1.5 or 2 million units this holiday season (especially with the new Zelda game and a possible 79$ price drop)

 

[Fularu]

What, are you saying that whats been happening for, oh, the last year and half will suddenly end this summer? As long as the systems are there, and it's not too close to Xbox 360 launch, Xbox will still sell good, and GC will still sell waht it is now, barring the one month Zelda boost.

You can bet MS won't keep both products on the shelf, they want to phase out the xbox and this generation as soon as possible. People want xbox games? then they'll have to get the xbox 360, or else that was in vain for MS, since they need 360 sales, not xbox sales

 

[909er]

no system produced and no bc will see that there is no more support for the system, just like the DC, the n64 or the genesis before it

No market growth will lead developpers into not supporting the system. While for the GC you'd be crazy if you don't think it will sell more than 1.5 or 2 million units this holiday season (especially with the new Zelda game and a possible 79$ price drop)

I see that the end of this year, the GC, at best, will have sold the same amount as Xbox for 2005. Are you telling me that between that and teh Revolution launch next year, it'll sell a further 3 million? Especially since it's selling like 50,000 to a 100,000 a month?

 

[midnightguy]

will Zelda will outsell Halo2 ? regardless, it will push Gamecube over the top, AT LEAST WORLDWIDE, if not in the U.S. also.

 

[gamergirly]

What, are you saying that whats been happening for, oh, the last year and half will suddenly end this summer? As long as the systems are there, and it's not too close to Xbox 360 launch, Xbox will still sell good, and GC will still sell waht it is now, barring the one month Zelda boost.

Nope. What I'm saying is that if Nvidia is going to STOP production of Xbox graphics chips at the end of August, Xbox sales will be running on a limited supply that will run out. Therefore, eventually there will be NO Xboxes sold while GC is still selling "whatever" it might be(alot can happen from now and then). Thus, you must be running some Puff the Magic Dragon compaign in which MS has millions of Xbox piled up somewhere in the world that it's going to sell over the next year to reach your number.

As for my "crack" comment towards you, it would be insane to think that GC will not get a heavy boost from Zelda at this point. I would say that Xbox 1 doesnt have anything that will come close to the millions that Zelda is probably going to generate(making your guess of Xbox 1 outselling GC on a limited quantity of systems and no game to drive it like Zelda will for GC illogical and imaginary), but it's better to wait until after E3 to make such claims