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[Hollywood]

While true, when the Xbox runs out of units, we'll be dead-smack in the face of Next Generation with maybe two next generation console releases. When that happens, both the Xbox 1 and Gamecube will be ignored (The PS2 will prolly sell well until a bit after PS3 hits it's stride).


Zelda might hold as much weight as Scarface (Or Godfather. I Told you I get them confused), GTA:SA, Conker, Halo 2 map pack, Need for Speed (sequel), Half-Life 2, The EA Sports games, or Matrixath of Neo. These titles are all confirmed for the Xbox this year. If you think the Xbox is just going to up-and-die because Nvidia is shipping their last bulk quantity of NV2As then you'd be quite wrong, miss.

That's all well and good, but the fact is you don't know exactly how many XBox's will be left to be sold off. I'm guessing once production on XBox 360 starts, XBox production will end, and there will maybe be two months of decent supply of Xbox after the 360 is released.

 

[TheDiave]

Still a lot of games coming out, and GC is still in production, so yeah, it will end up 2nd this gen.

And if we're lucky, 1st next gen... VIVA LAS REVOLUTION!

(Sorry, I had to.)

 

[KeithFranklin]

OK lets change this around a bit. Please predict month by month sales of XBOX and GameCube the remainder of this year.

I believe that MS is controlling distribution of XBOX to limit to about 200K per month thru October. So I believe that from May thru October were talking another 1.2 million consoles sold in the US. As for GameCube I see it selling on average just under 100K per month thru October. So the XBOX will pick up an additional 600K lead in the US. Then XBOX will sell about 800K in November and December. Think the GameCube will do about the same as the XBOX in November and December.

In Japan the GameCube is not doing well at all. Last time I checked I saw that the GameCube was selling at a rate that would have it sell less than 500K for all of 2005.

Lets just say the rest of the world is a tie in 2005 (Which is a reach if you ask me. XBOX is outselling the GameCube everywhere besides Japan, but for arguments sake 2005 wont adjust the totals towards either console).

So all in all I expect the 2 million lead the XBOX to have at the end of 2004 to be at just about 3 million at the end of 2005.

Now make your predictions.

 

[cvxfreak]

Who doesn't own a GameCube already that wants Zelda? I mean they have already released one on the console that got the fans of the series.

Same reason why Halo 2 did the Xbox a lot of good.

 

[KeithFranklin]

Same reason why Halo 2 did the Xbox a lot of good.

Ok so lets go with that. So the increase in XBOX sales in November and December was because of Halo 2. So Halo 2 sold what an extra 300K XBOX's.

So Zelda Mature will sell an extra 300K GameCubes this November and December. I can believe that. Think that leaves a good 2.7 million for the GameCube to sell somewhere else.

 

[cvxfreak]

Ok so lets go with that. So the increase in XBOX sales in November and December was because of Halo 2. So Halo 2 sold what an extra 300K XBOX's.

So Zelda Mature will sell an extra 300K GameCubes this November and December. I can believe that. Think that leaves a good 2.7 million for the GameCube to sell somewhere else.

I agree with your logic; however, I think other sales will come from the low price GameCube. A $50, $60 or $70 GC, especially if redesigned, could potentially move a lot of systems.

 

[Mooreberg]

Which system sold 10 million units first? That's who won.

 

[Manders]

meh. who honestly cares? even if the gamecube outsells the xbox by a slim margin, in people's minds, xbox is ahead of gamecube. no one cares about nintendo anymore.

 

[Suranga3]

Who cares about the current gen numbers? Its all about next-gen now.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

OK lets change this around a bit. Please predict month by month sales of XBOX and GameCube the remainder of this year.

I believe that MS is controlling distribution of XBOX to limit to about 200K per month thru October. So I believe that from May thru October were talking another 1.2 million consoles sold in the US. As for GameCube I see it selling on average just under 100K per month thru October. So the XBOX will pick up an additional 600K lead in the US. Then XBOX will sell about 800K in November and December. Think the GameCube will do about the same as the XBOX in November and December.

Heh. My numbers come out quite similar to yours, though I did them independently by tinkering with year-over-year changes and applying total guesstimates about things like price drops, remaining Xbox stock, etc. With so much guessing I place very little faith in these, but hey.

___________________________Xbox______GCN
May 2005		184,447	  54,479
June 2005		222,700	  76,300
July 2005		208,250	  65,100
August 2005		184,374	  76,267
September 2005		212,054	  80,352
October 2005		173,600	  154,000
November 2005		449,400	  550,000
December 2005		417,600	  814,000
January 2006		 72,713   134,792
February 2006		 63,600	  116,000
March 2006		 45,400	  84,600
April 2006		 15,300	  53,550
May 2006			  46,307
June 2006			  64,855
July 2006			  55,335
August 2006			  64,827
September 2006			  68,299
October 2006			  130,900
November 2006			  385,000
December 2006			  488,400

2005 total            2,886,800  2,255,825
Rest of 2005 total    2,052,425  1,870,498
2006 total              197,013  1,692,866
May 2005-Dec 2006     2,249,438  3,563,364
Total through 2006   14,982,190 13,119,051

 

[midnightguy]

I just don't get this Zelda faith. I've already acknowleged that I think GC will probably outsell the Xbox WW. But in the US, this one game(and ONLY this one game, since Nintendo has to be in development in Rev titles after to make a good launch) will not seal and exceed the current 3+million gap.

not Zelda alone, pushing GC over the top in the U.S. (that will help) but for the fact that Gamecube will be sold for 1-2 years longer than Xbox.

by early 2007, we should see that GC has finally outsold Xbox in the U.S.

 

[gamergirly]

Who cares about the current gen numbers? Its all about next-gen now.

The PS2 says nah nah

 

[_Angelus_]

Wouldn't you guys rather have Nintendo's badly tarnished image sewn up rather than have them reach some cheaply earned 2nd place finish? Its like showing up to a dance and making out with a pimply faced girl. Whats the point? Basicaly the public will see you and the girl and just cringe,same way the public views the GameCube so to speak.:b

 

[HokieJoe]

Marketshare doesn't matter if your not making money. Nintendo didn't need an opener console to beat Atari did they? Sony didn't need one to beat Nintendo? I think its all a bunch of spin by MSoft. You can have all the marketshare you want if you are willing to take the hit.

Exactly my point- they are willing to take the hit. Marketshare matters- if you're in it for the long haul. Microsoft can burn money in a furnace 24/7 so...

They want the world's livingroom just like Sony does.