A lot of people whom I've talked to, who aren't nearly as hardcore as me (but still tuned into the MTV demo) - a mixture of casual, and regular gamers... all agreed that the X360 MTV special was weak. And still, they all seem to be taking the attitude of waiting till PS3 or Rev. If PS3 and Rev truly come out next spring/summer, MS's lead won't even be that long. Sadly, since it seems MS is on the right track with this one, compared to the original Xbox. (except, whoever came up with the idea of micropayments needs to be shot on the spot)
Remember, a LOT of people purchased the original Xbox last Xmas season, try telling them to shell out $300 for a new system no more than a year since they purchased their first one.
And based upon my experience with people who play Madden, they buy the game for whatever system the rest of their friends have. Like, my cousin (who owns all 3 current gen systems) purchased the PS2 one. I asked him, why not get the Xbox version, and he said, all his friends have the PS2 one and they'd rather not get used to the Xbox controller. A lot of the more casual fans don't care THAT much about graphics.
Also, we have to take into account how MS's traditional division is doing... With Firefox chomping away at the bit of IE, and Longhorn not due out till 2007 at the earliest... I'm not really too sure how the 2 different divisions cross over too much, but say MS took a big hit in their PC products division (probably unlikely, but you never know)... I think that'll have serious effects on their games division, since right now their games division is operating at a loss.