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Canadian PoliGAF - 42nd Parliament: Sunny Ways in Trudeaupia

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CazTGG

Member
I'm guessing it'll be a Liberal minority in B.C. Clark's comments about Trump and Trump's recent actions no doubt boosted her in the polls but I doubt it will be enough to make people ignore the amount of scandals that are linked to her government.
 
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Tiktaalik

Member
I've set very low expectations for a BC Liberal victory.

The NDP could still win, the increase in early voter turnout is promising, but they have a really difficult path to victory. They basically need to win every Vancouver suburb riding they're hoping to flip from the Libs and to hold off any gains from the Greens on the island.

Horgan has been pretty decent, and this campaign was much better than the diasterous 2013 one, yet the NDP haven't seemed to move the needle (at least in polling). It of course doesn't help that the entire media apparatus is against them, but nonetheless I feel they're going to need to try something else.
 
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Tiktaalik

Member
The BC Greens seem a lot more interested in replacing the NDP as the official opposition than working with the NDP to advance the many common items of their platforms. They're not really to the left of the NDP and they have a fair bit in common with the BC Liberals.

It'd be pretty interesting to see what would happen in a minority government scenario.

If the BC Greens prop up the Liberals in exchange for some trivial environmentalist moves, such as an increased carbon tax (that the BC gov will have to eventually do anyway), I'll be super pissed.
 
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matthewwhatever

Member
gutter_trash said:
are both the NDP and the Greens flexible enough to form a coalition government?
Click to expand...

If the relationship in BC between the Greens and the NDP is like it is anywhere else in Canada, I'm going to say: no way. They *hate* each other. A lot of NDPers I know think the Greens are basically Liberals in, uh, green clothing (going back, in part, to the Liberals not running a candidate against May in the 2008 federal election), while -- as Tik notes above me -- the Greens want to break through into the mainstream, and their best chance of doing that is displacing the NDP. I think in a minority situation, the Greens would be much more likely to prop up Clark than they would Horgan.
 
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Sean C

Member
matthewwhatever said:
If the relationship in BC between the Greens and the NDP is like it is anywhere else in Canada, I'm going to say: no way. They *hate* each other. A lot of NDPers I know think the Greens are basically Liberals in, uh, green clothing (going back, in part, to the Liberals not running a candidate against May in the 2008 federal election), while -- as Tik notes above me -- the Greens want to break through into the mainstream, and their best chance of doing that is displacing the NDP. I think in a minority situation, the Greens would be much more likely to prop up Clark than they would Horgan.
Click to expand...
The calculation they'd have to make is whether propping up Clark would endear them to the sort of voters the Greens want to rally under their banner.
 
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Tiktaalik

Member
For those out East that want to stay up late and follow along, the polls in an hour at 8PST.

There will be live coverage at http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia

Here's a cheat sheet of ridings to keep an eye on.

Basically the NDP have a super narrow path to victory. They need to do extremely well in Metro Vancouver and win a bunch of suburbs. There are lots of people mad about the state of housing and transportation in Vancouver, so this is possible, but it's a longshot. If the NDP starts doing badly in their must win ridings like Mission and Coquitlam it's all over.

Expect to see the Liberals do very well in the interior.

The goal of the BC Greens this time around is to get to that magic number of 4 seats needed to get official party status. All those ridings are on the Island around Victoria.
 
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Tiktaalik

Member
matthewwhatever said:
If the relationship in BC between the Greens and the NDP is like it is anywhere else in Canada, I'm going to say: no way. They *hate* each other. A lot of NDPers I know think the Greens are basically Liberals in, uh, green clothing (going back, in part, to the Liberals not running a candidate against May in the 2008 federal election), while -- as Tik notes above me -- the Greens want to break through into the mainstream, and their best chance of doing that is displacing the NDP. I think in a minority situation, the Greens would be much more likely to prop up Clark than they would Horgan.
Click to expand...

Regarding the Greens I'd be open to supporting them but holy shit now is not the time to entertain the idea of keeping the Libs in power while building up a new party. The Liberals have been terrible these last four years on housing and transportation amongst other things, and there's a lot of very important projects on the horizon that the Liberals have the wrong position on. Centre left voters need to come together and ditch the Liberals, ban corporate and union donations and implement PR.

The Green platform as well in my opinion was all over the place. Some great ideas, but others out of nowhere, and some ideas that seem to exist purely to be bigger and better (and more expensive) than the equivalent NDP policy. I think the party is still not ready for the big show.
 
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mugwhump

Member
Man, I totally forgot. I left the house and saw a bus flashing VOTE TODAY and was like FUCK. So I hightailed it to the nearest voting booth.

I forgot to research the candidates though, lol. I was planning to sit there with my ballot and research them on my phone, but they wanted me to fill it out right away. Oops.

And apparently Burnaby north is a big swing district. I mostly just voted NDP because I'm still butthurt about electoral reform.

I'm sorry, I'm a bad citizen ( ͡↑ ͜ʖ ͡↑)
 
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sikkinixx

Member
Bitterly awaiting yet another fucking Liberal win. Clark is like Trump in her ability to skirt any damn thing that gets people mad yet nothing comes of it.

Oh well. At least the Supreme Court told her to get fucked and helped out with teacher funding.

Also; the NDP need to dump their fucking name and rebrand. Everything the Liberals hurl is "but but but but remember the 90s?! REMEMBER DECK-GATE?!" That baggage lives in with people like my parents who will *never* vote NDP again.
 
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Tiktaalik

Member
mugwhump said:
Man, I totally forgot. I left the house and saw a bus flashing VOTE TODAY and was like FUCK. So I hightailed it to the nearest voting booth.

I forgot to research the candidates though, lol. I was planning to sit there with my ballot and research them on my phone, but they wanted me to fill it out right away. Oops.

And apparently Burnaby north is a big swing district. I mostly just voted NDP because I'm still butthurt about electoral reform.

I'm sorry, I'm a bad citizen ( ͡↑ ͜ʖ ͡↑)
Click to expand...

Its ok you did good. The NDP have promised a referendum on electoral reform and they'd campaign in favour.
 
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Sean C

Member
8 to 8 thus far, with only a handful of polls in.

Edit: Now 17-11 for the Liberals.

The Greens were nipping at the NDP's heels in at least one of those Vancouver Island ridings.
 
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MMarston

Was getting caught part of your plan?
21-15 Lib/NDP and at the moment, 70% winning chance compared to 23% respectively according to CTV.
 
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Sean C

Member
The Greens are ahead in Saanich North and the Islands, which might theoretically be Seat #2 (though, again, very early going).
 
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CygnusXS

will gain confidence one day
I'm prepared for another Liberal majority, as distasteful as that would be. I have little hope for politics in this province.
 
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CazTGG

Member
Looks like the B.C. Liberals are taking home a smaller majority than before but a majority nonetheless. Things might change but as is, looks like Clark calling out Trump paid off.
 
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Tiktaalik

Member
CazTGG said:
Looks like the B.C. Liberals are taking home a smaller majority than before but a majority nonetheless. Things might change but as is, looks like Clark calling out Trump paid off.
Click to expand...

Yeah I think this helped. Calling for a strong, stable government in unsteady times etc etc etc. This tactic worked for Mr. Harper for a very long time.
 
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mo60

Member
CazTGG said:
Looks like the B.C. Liberals are taking home a smaller majority than before but a majority nonetheless. Things might change but as is, looks like Clark calling out Trump paid off.
Click to expand...

They may lose 3-6 seats in the end which may put them in minority territory
 
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Sean C

Member
The Greens are leading in Saanich and the Islands (38 to the NDP's 32) at the moment, with 7 polls in. That seems like their best shot at a second seat.
 
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MMarston

Was getting caught part of your plan?
NDP takes the lead by 1.


1098.gif
Click to expand...
 
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