firehawk12
Subete no aware
So Sheer basically the last worst out of the three of O'Toole, Chong, and Raitt? lol
What a way to vote... reminds me of a real election!
What a way to vote... reminds me of a real election!
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Canadian PoliGAF - 42nd Parliament: Sunny Ways in Trudeaupia
- Thread starter matthewwhatever
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Sapiens
Member
Don't tell people how to vote.
matthewwhatever
Member
I think including both O'Toole and Scheer is the safe thing to do. I think it's significantly more likely that it comes down to Bernier versus one of them than we get a final of Bernier vs. Leitch. I know you can't look at it totally logically, but Leitch's probable down-ballot support would come from the people who vote for Brad Trost, Pierre Lemieux, and Steven Blaney -- all total non-contenders. I think she'll get a bit of a post-O'Leary bump, but that's not going to be enough to make her a viable contender. She'll have a decent showing on the first ballot (I'll guess a very close third place, with around 18-20%), but her room for growth is pretty limited, even assuming that many of her voters are too shy to admit to pollsters that they support her.
Of course, if you're rooting for chaos (rather than rooting for an Official Opposition that isn't run by crazy people), Bernier vs. Leitch would be pretty interesting. Most of caucus support has gone to O'Toole and Scheer, and a lot of those MPs and Senators have made it clear they wouldn't support either Bernier and Leitch. The small CPC Quebec caucus have pointedly refused to endorse Bernier, and I think all the other leadership candidates have insulted Leitch. If it's Bernier or Leitch, I could imagine the CPC -- at least in Parliament -- splitting, Democratic Representative Caucus-style. From a partisan Liberal point of view, that would be amazing to see, but as someone who wants our democracy to continue to function, I'd hope that it doesn't.
Scheer is basically a blander version of Stephen Harper, while, as UberTag explained, Saxton is the most generic businessman Conservative imaginable. He's a former MP, and he has no chance of winning.
And Obhrai is a goofball, but he's got better policy ideas than most of the other candidates. Plus, throwing him a vote is implicitly sticking it to the racist wing of the CPC.
Following up on my earlier comments on the BC election polling, there's now significant divergence among the pollsters in terms of what's being predicted, as two new polls have come out giving the BC Liberals their first (narrow) leads since February:
Meanwhile, the other pollsters see a much wider gap in favour of the NDP.
In a week, we find out who's right.
Meanwhile, the other pollsters see a much wider gap in favour of the NDP.
In a week, we find out who's right.
Following up on my earlier comments on the BC election polling, there's now significant divergence among the pollsters in terms of what's being predicted, as two new polls have come out giving the BC Liberals their first (narrow) leads since February:
Meanwhile, the other pollsters see a much wider gap in favour of the NDP.
In a week, we find out who's right.
Have online polls been reliable in previous provincial/federal elections? That's the only difference I see between the Liberal and NDP leading polls.
pr0cs
Member
We are waaaaaaay beyond that in this thread
firehawk12
Subete no aware
Went Scheer and Obhrai as 4 and 5 and then just randomly did the others. Although maybe I could have put O'Leary down since it doesn't matter. lol
Fixed.
How likely is it that they redo the CPC ballot due to keeping O'Leary on after he dropped out?
You Are Viewtiful
Member
Following up on my earlier comments on the BC election polling, there's now significant divergence among the pollsters in terms of what's being predicted, as two new polls have come out giving the BC Liberals their first (narrow) leads since February:
Meanwhile, the other pollsters see a much wider gap in favour of the NDP.
In a week, we find out who's right.
The debates took place April 20 and April 26, so the last poll in that snapshot is outdated.
matthewwhatever
Member
I don't know Justason Marketing Intelligence at all, but my general rule is that if Forum is saying one thing and someone else is saying another, go with the other.
Not very likely. The ballots have all been mailed out, and since it's ranked voting they'll just redistribute whatever first choice votes he gets to the #2 choices. If anyone is 1 & done in voting after O'Leary, they can just discard the ballots, like they'd do normally.
Not very likely. The ballots have all been mailed out, and since it's ranked voting they'll just redistribute whatever first choice votes he gets to the #2 choices. If anyone is 1 & done in voting after O'Leary, they can just discard the ballots, like they'd do normally.
Sapiens
Member
I'm not. Whenever elections come up, the most important thing you can tell someone is to vote - not for whom to vote.
firehawk12
Subete no aware
Do I have to wait until after the election results to "quit" the party? I'm ready to buy my NDP membership. lol
gutter_trash
Banned
I'm not big on BC politics but I find it hilarious that Christy Clark will manage to snag another win. LOL
when I saw Clark threaten retaliation against Trump over softwood lumber, that's when I knew that average voters would flock to her.
,,,,,,,,,,
Quebec news: Wait times have not improved ever since having a Doctor as Premier and a having a Doctor has Health Minister. LOL in a non LOL sarcastic way
when I saw Clark threaten retaliation against Trump over softwood lumber, that's when I knew that average voters would flock to her.
,,,,,,,,,,
Quebec news: Wait times have not improved ever since having a Doctor as Premier and a having a Doctor has Health Minister. LOL in a non LOL sarcastic way
UberTag
Member
Updated my ballot to include Obhrai and Bernier (as per reasons stated above).
Will be mailing it out in the next day or so. Glad to have this monkey off my back.
Tell that to the Americans who are now saddled with Trump for 4 years. Ill-informed voters did a lot of damage there.
matthewwhatever
Member
You have until August 17th to buy your NDP membership, so there's no urgency -- and besides, it's not like either party has any way of knowing that you have a membership with the other!
UberTag
Member
What's the cost to pony up for an NDP membership? Comparable to what we shelled out to join the Conservatives?
firehawk12
Subete no aware
I know, I don't want to break any rules though. lol
It looks like it's pay what you want. I'm not sure if there's an actual minimum though, or if you can just buy a dollar membership.
I really hope Horgan is able to somehow pull it a rabbit out of a hat for the last week, I really want a miracle NDP win. But yes as I've said before, I know the reality (on the bright side a Liberal minority would be much better than before). I do think that JH will remain on as leader to the next election though, so things should remain stable moving forward. And the Greens may continue to make inroads.
Probably going to sign up for federal NDP party membership to vote on the next leader too. I'll have to do my research on the candidates since Nathan Cullen sadly isn't running.
Probably going to sign up for federal NDP party membership to vote on the next leader too. I'll have to do my research on the candidates since Nathan Cullen sadly isn't running.
matthewwhatever
Member
It's either more or less expensive, depending on your situation. It's generally $25, but less if you're a student, union member, if you're unemployed/underemployed, etc.
RE: who's running, right now there are only four official candidates: Niki Ashton, Charlie Angus, Guy Caron, and Peter Julian. They're all MPs. Ashton and Angus are fighting over who gets to be the Bernie-style candidate, Caron is running on Basic Income, and Peter Julian is the most boring man in the world.
They also have another two people registered with Elections Canada, but they haven't met the NDP requirements in terms of signatures: Pat Stogran (former military, not a member of the NDP) and Ibrahim Bruno El-Khoury (I know literally nothing about him).
On top of that, Jagmeet Singh (MPP from Brampton) is almost definitely running, and I've heard he's announcing after the BC election ends. He's being attacked for being substance-free, but he looks pretty good in a suit, and the race is structured in a way that should be favourable to him.
Someone told me they may have up to 11 candidates by the summer, but if there are, the other four will all be relative nobodies.
matthewwhatever
Member
Here's the poll in question: Bernier 31, Scheer 22, O'Toole 11.
Quebec is going to play a pretty big role, but I don't know that that's necessarily to Bernier's advantage. All the other Quebec MPs have been going for O'Toole, including Gerard Deltell, who apparently holds much more sway in the province than Bernier.
I think Bernier is probably most likely at this point, but I think it's not as sure a thing as a lot of people are suggesting.
Quebec is going to play a pretty big role, but I don't know that that's necessarily to Bernier's advantage. All the other Quebec MPs have been going for O'Toole, including Gerard Deltell, who apparently holds much more sway in the province than Bernier.
I think Bernier is probably most likely at this point, but I think it's not as sure a thing as a lot of people are suggesting.
I looked at the polls for the last BC election, and it seems like the online polls were actually more favourable to the NDP than IVR ones.
Deltell sure has influence, but he's not on the ballot. O'Toole is, and 99% of the Quebec population has no idea who he is, even after this leadership campaign. It's not like he was a key minister under Harper.
lol, I'm secretly hoping for a BC NDP win just to see BC and AB duke it out on provincial interests despite technically being the same party
In one of the post-O'Leary polls that was conducted, Maxime Bernier is found to be leading first-ballot voters by 35% (Kellie Leitch is in third, behind Andrew Scheer). It is worth noting that this statistic, while being provided by Bernier's campaign and thus may suggest that the lead Bernier possesses is not as significant as his campaign believe it to be, is not an outlier in terms of ranking for the top candidates.
I'm not saying Quebec is decisive, but in combination with those numbers?
There's just no way someone else catches up to 50 before he does. For the "coming up the middle" thing to work you really need to actually have a middle. There's no middle here.
matthewwhatever
Member
For sure, and that'll hurt him if he's leading the CPC in 2019. In a leadership contest, though, it's all about who has the best machinery behind them, since it's strictly about motivating the party base. Being known doesn't necessarily hurt, but it's mainly a numbers game.
Just to be clear, though, I totally agree that Bernier winning is the most likely outcome right now.
EDIT: the reason I'm not convinced it's done is that we've seen several leadership elections where the front-runner with a commanding first ballot lead couldn't make the jump. Look at the Liberals in 2006: Ignatieff came out of the first ballot with 30% - a 10 point lead over Rae. The winner was the guy who finished 12 points back on the first ballot. Or look at Alberta: in 2006 Ed Stelmach came from 15 points back and third place on the first ballot to be the eventual winner, while in 2011 Alison Redford was 20+ points back on the first ballot and still came from behind to win. Very different voting systems in both cases, but they show how hard it is for frontrunner candidates to make the jump to 50%+1.
gutter_trash
Banned
Christy Clark having her Tony Abbott moment (PG rated though)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JYcBd8avnOI
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for those who don't know what Tony Abbott moment I am reffereing to:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bxu_VJ2ZhQY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JYcBd8avnOI
-----------------
for those who don't know what Tony Abbott moment I am reffereing to:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bxu_VJ2ZhQY
You'd think stuff like this would sink a politician but the BC Liberals are made of teflon and I wouldn't be surprised if this makes no difference at all and the party cruises to yet another majority government.
This is a government that has no restrictions on corprorate, union or foreign donations and has taken in incredible amounts of money. They've had heaps of scandals over the years that would sink any normal government. Even the New York Times(!!!) has weighed in multiple times on the gross state of politics in BC. Nothing sticks.
Eh, I wouldn't think that would sink her. And it shouldn't. It's one person's opinion.
I like her spin, though. "She said she's never voted Liberal!" No...no, she never said that. It's not just about her idiology, Christy.
UberTag
Member
I have a hard time seeing Bernier as a lot of folks 2nd or 3rd choice. If they're voting for him, chances are they're putting him 1st. Otherwise, he's probably not showing up.
The only reason he even wound up on my ballot at all was at the bottom as a last-gasp check on Leitch.
Mike Works
Member
Her spin was that they accused her of being an NDP plant, and it took 5 days of journalists disproving that accusation until the BC Liberals issued this statement:
This comes a few months after Christy Clark accused the NDP of hacking their computers, only to be forced to apologize days later after it turned out the material that was discovered via their website was readily available to the public.
Ether_Snake
å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®
If Bernier wins, Trudeau wins.
AuthenticM
Member
holy fuck, coming into this thread right now made me remember that I dreamed Chong won the leadership last night, lol.
I mean, points for the alliteration but now all I can think of is a rock crab with a serious workout regiment.
But by how much, exactly? It's likely the Liberals will win 2019 short of a terrorist attack, failure to legalize marijuana or economic collapse if Bernier wins, but I doubt Bernier will cause western provinces, the maritimes or territories to sway from one party to the other in any significant fashion. If anything, he's likely to swing a few seats to the CPC in Quebec, potentially enough to reduce the Liberal majority to a minority.
Ether_Snake
å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®
Could be, you can't expect Trudeau's majority to last much longer anyway. Still better than losing the PMship.
If he runs a bad/uninspired campaign, they could lose seats elsewhere.
Also, the type of Quebec seats that the Tories would be likely to pick up under Bernier would come from the Bloc and the NDP, not the Liberals.
Ribbed for your pleasure
Both of these are good lol.
Like, does he think people are going down their ballots and stopping at his name and being all "oh, that rock-ribbed guy. I heard everybody liked him. Let's vote for him"?
Just a really funny slogan. 😂
Canadian PoliGAF - 43rd Parliament: Canada's Got Some Rocking Ribs!
Glad to see the government rolling back the asinine Harper era changes to the citizenship process.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/senate-passes-bill-that-would-repeal-many-many-conservative-citizenship-changes/article34890037/
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/senate-passes-bill-that-would-repeal-many-many-conservative-citizenship-changes/article34890037/
Seems like the Senate is helping with some of the finer details, which is good all around really
TheRealTalker
Banned
We dodged a bullet guys
When he (inevitably) comes to Ottawa, we'll take to the street.
We didn't, he did. His fragile ego wouldn't be able to handle the protests against him that will happen the second he sets foot in this country.
gutter_trash
Banned
he will probably go to one of his hotels, either Vancouver or Toronto
matthewwhatever
Member
Yep -- it's the trouble with being a frontrunner. It's possible to run a successful frontrunner campaign (i.e. Trudeau in 2013, Ignatieff in 2009, or Mulcair in 2012 to a lesser extent), but you need to have a massive advantage over the other campaigns and no viable alternative. Bernier is way ahead in money, but O'Toole and Scheer have significantly more caucus and organizational support, and he's running on a much more divisive platform than you'd usually see.
I think you could say this about any of the candidates. All of them have pretty glaring fatal flaws.
Obviously Atlantic Canada can't go any more Liberal than it already is. But Bernier could be a major liability to the Conservatives in southern Ontario. It's going to be really easy to paint him as anti-farmer, plus his stance on immigration and multiculturalism may be a massive liability in the 905 area. I can't speak to western Canada, but my impression is that his opposition to supply management will be a little more popular there -- but even then, winning over rural farmers in Alberta and Saskatchewan should be a gimme for a CPC leader, not the specific group he's targeting.
I'll be shocked if Trump comes to a major city if he visits Canada. I think there's a slim chance he'd visit one of his properties, but it's more likely that he either doesn't come at all or goes to some rural resort in the middle of nowhere.
KernelPanic
Member
People were protesting there when he got elected. Don't think he will get a better reception.
And I just hugged my OHIP card today seeing what's going on across the border
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