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[Stumpokapow]

What a lot of people don't realize is that a tax cut for the middle class also benefits richer people as well due to the progressive tax code. Of course, once we get into bigger digits (above 130k~) thats when the hurt comes on, but the modifications really aren't that major. It's more of a symbolic gesture than anything substantive. The real grist comes from stimulating the economy, funding new jobs and hoepfully making us more competitive in the international marketplace, not saving ma and pa 2000 every april

looks like the middle class cut is 22.5% -> 20% for marginal income between 44701 and 89401 and a raise of 4% for marginal income over 200000. assume it's implemented as follows:

middleClassBracketBottom = 44701
middleClassBracketTop = 89401
richAssBracketBottom = 200000
richAssBracketTop = 9999999999999
changeInRateMiddle = -0.025
changeInRateRich = 0.04

for income in [45000, 47500, 50000, 55000, 60000, 65000, 70000, 75000, 90000, 100000, 125000, 150000, 200000, 210000, 220000, 230000, 250000, 275000, 300000, 500000, 1000000]:
	deltaTax = min(middleClassBracketTop-middleClassBracketBottom,max(0,income-middleClassBracketBottom))*changeInRateMiddle + min(richAssBracketTop-richAssBracketBottom,max(0,income-richAssBracketBottom))*changeInRateRich
	print "Someone making "+str(income)+" pays "+str(deltaTax)+" extra tax"

Someone making 45000 pays -7.475 extra tax
Someone making 47500 pays -69.975 extra tax
Someone making 50000 pays -132.475 extra tax
Someone making 55000 pays -257.475 extra tax
Someone making 60000 pays -382.475 extra tax
Someone making 65000 pays -507.475 extra tax
Someone making 70000 pays -632.475 extra tax
Someone making 75000 pays -757.475 extra tax
Someone making 90000 pays -1117.5 extra tax
Someone making 100000 pays -1117.5 extra tax
Someone making 125000 pays -1117.5 extra tax
Someone making 150000 pays -1117.5 extra tax
Someone making 200000 pays -1117.5 extra tax
Someone making 210000 pays -717.5 extra tax
Someone making 220000 pays -317.5 extra tax
Someone making 230000 pays 82.5 extra tax
Someone making 250000 pays 882.5 extra tax
Someone making 275000 pays 1882.5 extra tax
Someone making 300000 pays 2882.5 extra tax
Someone making 500000 pays 10882.5 extra tax
Someone making 1000000 pays 30882.5 extra tax

So ma and pa will save $1,200 if their income is ~125,000-200,000 ish (assuming no credits of any kind and pooled income and...)

My assessment of the renamed ministerial posts:

Minister of Fisheries, Oceans and the Canadian Coast Guard - "Fisheries and Oceans" was just fine; the add-on is cumbersome and unnecessary.

coast guard reminds putin we mean business!!!

Minister of Employment, Workforce and Labour - Another overly complicated renaming; what was wrong with "Minister of Labour"? The new name pretty much just says the same thing three times.

labour sounds communist, workforce and employment = we love businesses

 

[gutter_trash]

Peter Mansbridge has an exclussive interview today on the National


PVR history

 

[Tiktaalik]

So ma and pa will save $2,000 if their income is ~125,000-200,000 ish (assuming no credits of any kind and pooled income and...)

Yeah the "middle class" tax cut is basically raising taxes on the top 1% and handing it over to the top 10%. It's bullshit.

Because people were chatting about Dion a few pages back. He wasn't the right leader at the time, but he's clearly a smart, dedicated MP and a good person for Canada to have in cabinet.

The redemption of Stéphane Dion

Seven years ago, Stéphane Dion resigned as Liberal leader. Today, he joins the Trudeau cabinet as the minister of foreign affairs.


In the crowded aftermath of the Liberal celebration at the Queen Elizabeth hotel in Montreal on election night, awhile after Justin Trudeau had spoken and departed, Stéphane Dion was still around, looking like one of the happiest people on the planet.

Almost exactly seven years earlier, Dion had been at another hotel in Montreal for another election night, but in that case to concede defeat. Several days later he would announce his intention to resign as party leader and so, after some unexpected moments of drama, he would become just the second leader of the Liberal party of Canada to never be prime minister.

But this bright morning at Rideau Hall, Stephane Dion, shoulders low, body somewhat slouched, stepped forward to swear the oaths of office, first in French, then in his awkwardly enunciated English, as the minister of foreign affairs. When he attempted then to sign the official documents, the pen seemed not to work, and there were chuckles at the awkward moment. Which was sort of perfect.

Amid the change, there is the comeback and redemption of Stéphane Dion.

...

 

[Pancake Mix]

too bad he changes his positions and ideologies for electoral opportunism

You really think anything resembling the promised end of the current first-past-the-post system is going to happen when the Liberals grabbed a huge majority with 39.4 percent of the popular vote? I'd like to see it but I have my doubts.

You really think he'll make up Canada Post's huge shortfall and reintroduce door to door delivery in the pre-1985 areas that had already been forced over and stop new roll-outs?

Wow.

 

[gutter_trash]

You really think anything resembling the promised end of the current first-past-the-post system is going to happen when the Liberals grabbed a huge majority with 39.4 percent of the popular vote? I'd like to see it but I have my doubts.

You really think he'll make up Canada Post's huge shortfall and reintroduce door to door delivery in the pre-1985 areas that had already been forced over and stop new roll-outs?

Wow.

election is over, enjoy the tax cut


i will be enjoying my 1k tax cut with a sunny vacation

 

[firehawk12]

Anyone follow British politics? The British government tried to pass a bill that basically fucks the poor, and the House of Lords punted it back. It's like living in 2009 all over again. They are even threatening to stuff the House with more Conservative peerages or even musing about abolishing the entire House entirely. lol

(The funniest part is that Andrew Lloyd Webber is involved in all of this)

 

[maharg]

Ah, I wonder if they'll just let Sheer keep it or if they'll toss that position to someone in the party who didn't get a cabinet position.

It'll go to a Liberal.

Spoiler

Make it May, lol

Give it to Mulcair as a final fuck you. lol

To be clear, they don't "give" it to anyone. It's an all party vote on a secret ballot and everyone is nominated until they reject the nomination. No one can be forced into the role, and it will almost certainly be a liberal who gets it, and sheer wouldn't be keeping it, he isn't speaker now. He would have to re-win it.

May would be incredibly stupid to not reject the nomination since it would disenfranchise every single green voter in the country, effectively.

 

[firehawk12]

To be clear, they don't "give" it to anyone. It's an all party vote on a secret ballot and everyone is nominated until they reject the nomination. No one can be forced into the role, and it will almost certainly be a liberal who gets it, and sheer wouldn't be keeping it, he isn't speaker now. He would have to re-win it.

May would be incredibly stupid to not reject the nomination since it would disenfranchise every single green voter in the country, effectively.

Oh I know the MPs elect the speaker, but presumably you can whip the votes to elect anyone you want if there was someone in particular you wanted to put up for it.
Although they are "forced" into the position because of that silly little ceremony where the PM and the opposition leader drags the speaker to his seat at the start of the session. I still have vivid images of Dion and Harper doing that to... whoever was speaker back then.

Ah, Peter Milliken. How could I forget.

(I wonder who the Tories will get to do that this time... do they even have an interim leader?)

----
Speaking of random British politics, they seem to be going through a tampon tax thing of their own at the moment and it reminded me that we only recently got rid of GST on tampons this summer. But it seems like there are still some arcane tariff laws imposing taxes on importers of sanitary products that already makes me hate trade law.
http://www.macleans.ca/economy/econ...n-tax-is-gone-but-the-tampon-tariff-lives-on/

 

[matthewwhatever]

Tories pick their interim leader tomorrow! Interested in seeing who it'll be. I think Nicholson or Finley will get it, though a Rempel-Lebel joint leadership would be really interesting.

To be clear, they don't "give" it to anyone. It's an all party vote on a secret ballot and everyone is nominated until they reject the nomination. No one can be forced into the role, and it will almost certainly be a liberal who gets it, and sheer wouldn't be keeping it, he isn't speaker now. He would have to re-win it.

May would be incredibly stupid to not reject the nomination since it would disenfranchise every single green voter in the country, effectively.

Nope -- Sheer is Speaker of the House until they reconvene and select a new Speaker. Check out the current page on Parl.gc.ca -- it still has him there. Just quickly glancing at the list on that page, you can see that John Allen Fraser was Speaker until January 1994, even though he'd retired from the position just prior to the 1993 election in October. I think it's kind of like every other position in our system -- once you're in, you're in it until you either get replaced or you die.

EDIT: Looking at the dates on Wikipedia, there has been the odd time when they had small gaps between Speakers. For the most part, though, it's been a fairly unbroken line -- the last time it wasn't there was a break was a few months in late 1979/early 1980, which in turn was the first time since 1953.

 

[PumpkinSpice]

looks like the middle class cut is 22.5% -> 20% for marginal income between 44701 and 89401 and a raise of 4% for marginal income over 200000. assume it's implemented as follows:

middleClassBracketBottom = 44701
middleClassBracketTop = 89401
richAssBracketBottom = 200000
richAssBracketTop = 9999999999999
changeInRateMiddle = -0.025
changeInRateRich = 0.04

for income in [45000, 47500, 50000, 55000, 60000, 65000, 70000, 75000, 90000, 100000, 125000, 150000, 200000, 210000, 220000, 230000, 250000, 275000, 300000, 500000, 1000000]:
	deltaTax = min(middleClassBracketTop-middleClassBracketBottom,max(0,income-middleClassBracketBottom))*changeInRateMiddle + min(richAssBracketTop-richAssBracketBottom,max(0,income-richAssBracketBottom))*changeInRateRich
	print "Someone making "+str(income)+" pays "+str(deltaTax)+" extra tax"

Someone making 45000 pays -7.475 extra tax
Someone making 47500 pays -69.975 extra tax
Someone making 50000 pays -132.475 extra tax
Someone making 55000 pays -257.475 extra tax
Someone making 60000 pays -382.475 extra tax
Someone making 65000 pays -507.475 extra tax
Someone making 70000 pays -632.475 extra tax
Someone making 75000 pays -757.475 extra tax
Someone making 90000 pays -1117.5 extra tax
Someone making 100000 pays -1117.5 extra tax
Someone making 125000 pays -1117.5 extra tax
Someone making 150000 pays -1117.5 extra tax
Someone making 200000 pays -1117.5 extra tax
Someone making 210000 pays -717.5 extra tax
Someone making 220000 pays -317.5 extra tax
Someone making 230000 pays 82.5 extra tax
Someone making 250000 pays 882.5 extra tax
Someone making 275000 pays 1882.5 extra tax
Someone making 300000 pays 2882.5 extra tax
Someone making 500000 pays 10882.5 extra tax
Someone making 1000000 pays 30882.5 extra tax

So ma and pa will save $1,200 if their income is ~125,000-200,000 ish (assuming no credits of any kind and pooled income and...)

Man, I would rather they keep my $1000 and spend it on something useful. I don't know how they plan on increasing social services without eventually raising taxes; this is just going to make that harder.

 

[BigJonsson]

I nominate Gutter for speaker of Canada-Gaf

 

[Azzanadra]

In all the hooplah over the swearing in, how do the CPC's fortunes look? I can't imagine a Harperless CPC... they will need to seriously "re-invent" themselves.

 

[matthewwhatever]

A neat look by the Ottawa Citizen at the new cabinet, with a breakdown of how difficult their tasks are. The takeaway: Carla Qualtrough has it easy as Minister of Sport and Persons with Disabilities, Mélanie Joly will have it a little harder in Heritage, and everyone else has their work cut out for them.

 

[firehawk12]

In all the hooplah over the swearing in, how do the CPC's fortunes look? I can't imagine a Harperless CPC... they will need to seriously "re-invent" themselves.

Presumably they toss in an interim leader who can represent them for a while until they go through a leadership convention (which should be really fun to watch since the field is so wide open because of all the retirements and general malaise with Harper's style of leadership).

 

[SRG01]

So even if I'm above that 90k mark, I'm still going to get a tax break? This was a pleasant surprise

 

[sikkinixx]

Find it odd no one is giving Trudeau grief about no Asian-Canadians in cabinet. There are kind of a few Canadians of Asian descent.

Unless there are some that I am missing?

 

[PumpkinSpice]

Find it odd no one is giving Trudeau grief about no Asian-Canadians in cabinet. There are kind of a few Canadians of Asian descent.

Unless there are some that I am missing?

There are south Asians in cabinet but no east Asians. I found that a strange omission as well but I suppose it's hard to balance everything, especially when you need to factor in regional representation.

 

[firehawk12]

Are there any experienced East Asian Liberal MPs around? I seem to remember there were a couple from BC, but I can't remember if they were booted in 2011 or not.

 

[matthewwhatever]

They have three East Asian MPs, all from the GTA (2 from Scarborough, Arnold Chan and Shaun Chen, plus Geng Tan from Don Valley North). In general, with a few exceptions, East Asian communities aren't as politically involved as a lot of the Southeast Asian communities.

In all the hooplah over the swearing in, how do the CPC's fortunes look? I can't imagine a Harperless CPC... they will need to seriously "re-invent" themselves.

It's hard to tell. They only lost about a half-million votes from 2011, so it may be tempting for them to look at this election as a bit of a fluke, and assume that if turnout falls in 2019, their base will turn out and return them to power. The danger for them in that, obviously, is that if it's not a fluke, then they continue to lose.

There are some other factors to consider, but it's too early to tell how they'll break:
- we don't know the full extent of the damage they did to themselves with all the dogwhistle racism. They need minority communities to win some major ridings in the 905 area and elsewhere; if they don't go back to supporting the party like they did in 2011, they're doomed.
- we don't know how their fundraising will respond. Presumably their donors are committed enough to to give no matter what, especially since the CPC will have all kinds of fundraising fodder, but that's no sure thing. There are also some reports the party has far less money in the bank than they'd been letting on, so if that's true, that's got to hurt them.
- we don't know how their leadership will play out. It's quite possible they get stuck in the same cycle that's afflicting the Ontario PCs or the Republicans in the US, where every loss gets blamed by the party base -- the ones who actually pick the leader -- on being insufficiently conservative so they just keep going further and further to the right. We haven't heard many people complaining that Harper wasn't conservative enough, but there's still time for that to develop.

 

[Sean C]

There are south Asians in cabinet but no east Asians. I found that a strange omission as well but I suppose it's hard to balance everything, especially when you need to factor in regional representation.

There are three East Asian MPs (all Chinese), but they're all from the Toronto area, and all male, which makes it a bit of a tough fit. For the record, there aren't any black or Arab ministers either (Monsef is Afghan).

 

[gutter_trash]

I nominate Gutter for speaker of Canada-Gaf

the best part of being speaker is that one can be naked under those 19th Century robes

In all the hooplah over the swearing in, how do the CPC's fortunes look? I can't imagine a Harperless CPC... they will need to seriously "re-invent" themselves.

oh boy, comedy time tomorow.
I want them pick someone funny

 

[PumpkinSpice]

Are there any experienced East Asian Liberal MPs around? I seem to remember there were a couple from BC, but I can't remember if they were booted in 2011 or not.

I checked the map and it doesn't look like it.

There would have been a few options in Toronto, but they're men and rookies so it probably would have been hard to make a token east Asian minister.

 

[firehawk12]

It's quite possible they get stuck in the same cycle that's afflicting the Ontario PCs or the Republicans in the US, where every loss gets blamed by the party base -- the ones who actually pick the leader -- on being insufficiently conservative so they just keep going further and further to the right. We haven't heard many people complaining that Harper wasn't conservative enough, but there's still time for that to develop.

The backbench revolt happened by Harper was trying to moderate them. Which is why stuff like the sex-selection abortion ban private member's bill went nowhere and why that one dude (I'm so bad with names) resigned from the party last year.

 

[diaspora]

Ted Hsu would have been a fantastic cabinet minister. It's too bad he resigned.

 

[Slime]

The National tonight was pretty neat. Trudeau and Peter Mansbridge hangin' out before and after the swearing-in ceremony.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/the-national-for-november-04-2015-1.3304962

 

[maharg]

Oh I know the MPs elect the speaker, but presumably you can whip the votes to elect anyone you want if there was someone in particular you wanted to put up for it.

Nope, can't be whipped because it's a secret ballot. The closest you can come is the majority caucus nominating only one candidate (in which case the person ruining the plan could be easily identified), but even then it'd be easy for a backbencher revolt to elect an opposition speaker without consequences.

 

[Stumpokapow]

A neat look by the Ottawa Citizen at the new cabinet, with a breakdown of how difficult their tasks are. The takeaway: Carla Qualtrough has it easy as Minister of Sport and Persons with Disabilities, Mélanie Joly will have it a little harder in Heritage, and everyone else has their work cut out for them.

that is a neat look but one thing strikes me:

Almost all of the "first challenge" sections look like "well the conservatives completely fucked up this ministry and now canada has no credibility so this is going to be an unmitigated fiasco and almost impossible to fix that's how terrible things are" and almost all of the challenges are "very hard"

No mention that the Ottawa Citizen endorsed the conservatives

Accountability doesn't mean you need to eat shit if the people you endorse lose, but it does mean that you can't flip from saying they're the team best equipped to govern to the team that fucked things up beyond repair. Nothing has changed in the last two weeks. I think editorial boards should be held to account. If their endorsement is wholly irrelevant, they shouldn't make one, and if it's relevant, then they have a responsibility to ensure its content is an honest and full appraisal.

- we don't know how their leadership will play out. It's quite possible they get stuck in the same cycle that's afflicting the Ontario PCs or the Republicans in the US, where every loss gets blamed by the party base -- the ones who actually pick the leader -- on being insufficiently conservative so they just keep going further and further to the right. We haven't heard many people complaining that Harper wasn't conservative enough, but there's still time for that to develop.

The sad case of the Ontario PCs is remarkable. "The centerpiece of our campaign is going to be announcing we plan to fire 1,000,000 employees." ...

 

[Sean C]

Ted Hsu would have been a fantastic cabinet minister. It's too bad he resigned.

Yeah, when I was going over the regional distribution of Ontario Liberal MPs I thought it was too bad that Hsu didn't opt for another term, because he'd have been an ideal choice to give some representation to the big piece of land between Ottawa and Toronto.

 

[diaspora]

I one day wish I can be hype for anything as much as Duncan is to be minister of science.

 

[firehawk12]

Nope, can't be whipped because it's a secret ballot. The closest you can come is the majority caucus nominating only one candidate (in which case the person ruining the plan could be easily identified), but even then it'd be easy for a backbencher revolt to elect an opposition speaker without consequences.

I forgot it was secret ballot. Although I'm sure Harper had his ways when he was running the show!

 

[Pterion]

Yeah the "middle class" tax cut is basically raising taxes on the top 1% and handing it over to the top 10%. It's bullshit./QUOTE]

Simply infuriating. How about helping out those who truly need it, like you know, people who make less than 40k a year instead of 90-200k?

 

[lupinko]

I actually watched the entire swearing in ceremony before I went to bed and it went pretty late too since I'm a day ahead of you guys.

 

[diaspora]

In all the hooplah over the swearing in, how do the CPC's fortunes look? I can't imagine a Harperless CPC... they will need to seriously "re-invent" themselves.

 

[firehawk12]

^
I look forward to when Trudeau Obamas himself and people have to begin apologizing for him.

 

[Azzanadra]

^
I look forward to when Trudeau Obamas himself and people have to begin apologizing for him.

Well its not a certainty, I have some optimism despite my normally-pessimistic nature. Here's hoping the NDP returns to their socialist roots and overtakes the CPC by next election?

 

[Tiktaalik]

In all the hooplah over the swearing in, how do the CPC's fortunes look? I can't imagine a Harperless CPC... they will need to seriously "re-invent" themselves.

Normally I'd say that the CPC should be in good shape, as they still kept a large amount of seats, didn't lose much vote share, and have largely forced all parties into embracing the Conservative view on how the economy should be run. However, judging from the immediate reaction from Conservative MPs and staff, they don't seem to have taken any good lessons from their loss, and are blaming the electorate and the Liberals instead of their own terrible policies.

Potentially the CPC should be in good shape because they have four years to tear everything down and rebuild themselves better and stronger. Unfortunately for them, I'm not sure if they've figured out that they need to do that yet.

 

[Pedrito]

Obama hasn't even been all that bad.

What did people really expect? Maybe I just have low standards.

 

[CitizenVectron]

election is over, enjoy the tax cut


i will be enjoying my 1k tax cut with a sunny vacation

See this is the weird thing about Gutter, everyone. He wants the Liberals to win, and he hates the other guys...but he doesn't really have a reason. He doesn't actually care about their policies or promises, it's all just about his team winning, and the other teams losing. If you call out his team making a mistake or potentially going back on promises he says 'doesn't matter, they won.' And in the other thread I asked him directly if he would be okay with the Liberals cheating to win, even to the extend of outright stuffing ballot boxes, and he says he would be okay with that as long as they win, and that the ends justify the means.

Gutter is truly a horrible partisan, and we should truly shame him for his outlook on politics. He is the worst type of voter and person.

 

[mdubs]

If Trudeau is Canada's Obama when can I expect the anime memes to be arriving? Consider me excited!

Also the new defence minister seems cool, good pick

 

[Pedrito]

See this is the weird thing about Gutter, everyone. He wants the Liberals to win, and he hates the other guys...but he doesn't really have a reason. He doesn't actually care about their policies or promises, it's all just about his team winning, and the other teams losing. If you call out his team making a mistake or potentially going back on promises he says 'doesn't matter, they won.' And in the other thread I asked him directly if he would be okay with the Liberals cheating to win, even to the extend of outright stuffing ballot boxes, and he says he would be okay with that as long as they win, and that the ends justify the means.

Gutter is truly a horrible partisan, and we should truly shame him for his outlook on politics. He is the worst type of voter and person.

It all stems from a pathological fear of being deported back to Portugal by PKP after a 50%+1 vote.

 

[PumpkinSpice]

See this is the weird thing about Gutter, everyone. He wants the Liberals to win, and he hates the other guys...but he doesn't really have a reason. He doesn't actually care about their policies or promises, it's all just about his team winning, and the other teams losing. If you call out his team making a mistake or potentially going back on promises he says 'doesn't matter, they won.' And in the other thread I asked him directly if he would be okay with the Liberals cheating to win, even to the extend of outright stuffing ballot boxes, and he says he would be okay with that as long as they win, and that the ends justify the means.

Gutter is truly a horrible partisan, and we should truly shame him for his outlook on politics. He is the worst type of voter and person.

But bro the Sherbrooke Declaration

 

[Dr.Guru of Peru]

^
I look forward to when Trudeau Obamas himself and people have to begin apologizing for him.

I don't understand comments like this.

Of course he's going to have controversies. Of course he won't stick by every promise. Of course his popularity is going to wax and wane. This is what happens in politics. Are you going to sit there and and tell us "i told you so" for predicting something that has happened and will happen to every single politician in history?

 

[firehawk12]

Well its not a certainty, I have some optimism despite my normally-pessimistic nature. Here's hoping the NDP returns to their socialist roots and overtakes the CPC by next election?

I don't mind the Liberals I suppose. And while I have no baggage when it comes to the Trudeau name, I do sort of understand what the Liberal brand means and everything that it entails. It's politics as usual - picking the lesser of two evils.

I just assume the next election will come down to the Tories and the Grits again, with Ontario being yet another battleground because that's where all the seats still are.

Obama hasn't even been all that bad.

What did people really expect? Maybe I just have low standards.

First term Obama was the worst. I naively bought into "Yes We Can" until it soon became clear that the entire first term, short of the still broken Obama-care project, was mostly a wash.
Second term Obama is better (never thought I'd see normalized relations with Cuba in my life time), but you have things like the expansion of the drone program to think about. In some ways, he's more hawkish than Bush.

I don't understand comments like this.

Of course he's going to have controversies. Of course he won't stick by every promise. Of course his popularity is going to wax and wane. This is what happens in politics. Are you going to sit there and and tell us "i told you so" for predicting something that has happened and will happen to every single politician in history?

Admittedly, I just find the smugness a bit off putting. But then again, I'm still salty that I don't have anyone to vote for anymore. lol

 

[Azzanadra]

Normally I'd say that the CPC should be in good shape, as they still kept a large amount of seats, didn't lose much vote share, and have largely forced all parties into embracing the Conservative view on how the economy should be run. However, judging from the immediate reaction from Conservative MPs and staff, they don't seem to have taken any good lessons from their loss, and are blaming the electorate and the Liberals instead of their own terrible policies.

Potentially the CPC should be in good shape because they have four years to tear everything down and rebuild themselves better and stronger. Unfortunately for them, I'm not sure if they've figured out that they need to do that yet.

Even if they failed to rebuild, the CPC- and conservative parties in general around the world- have the benefit of having voters who will never vote anything except conservative regardless of what platform appears to be the best.

 

[killer rin]

Normally I'd say that the CPC should be in good shape, as they still kept a large amount of seats, didn't lose much vote share, and have largely forced all parties into embracing the Conservative view on how the economy should be run. However, judging from the immediate reaction from Conservative MPs and staff, they don't seem to have taken any good lessons from their loss, and are blaming the electorate and the Liberals instead of their own terrible policies.

Potentially the CPC should be in good shape because they have four years to tear everything down and rebuild themselves better and stronger. Unfortunately for them, I'm not sure if they've figured out that they need to do that yet.

Not to mention, if Trudeau follows through on Electoral Reform the chance of the CPC winning goes down drastically. If its MMP the Liberals and NDP will always be able to out seat the CPC. And if its AV, Liberal and NDP supporters are more likely than CPC supporters to back each other, thus ensuring Liberal win.

Plus, if Trudeau throws in a couple cards which outlaw the playbook the Conservatives use to demonize the opposition and win, we could be looking at a couple rounds of them in 2nd to 3rd place.

 

[firehawk12]

^
To be fair, eventually any government that sits in power long enough begins to build up enough crud. It's just a matter of who becomes the proper protest vote for when the Liberals start having Duffy-like scandals. By default, the Tories capture more of those votes than the NDP, particularly because there is no NDP base to speak of.

 

[Mr.Sumal]

The golden age for canada starts now!

 

[subrock]

Man, I would rather they keep my $1000 and spend it on something useful. I don't know how they plan on increasing social services without eventually raising taxes; this is just going to make that harder.

Totally. I make $70k and I have absolutely no desire for a tax cut. It's just a way to buy votes with our own money

 

[Tiktaalik]

Not to mention, if Trudeau follows through on Electoral Reform the chance of the CPC winning goes down drastically. If its MMP the Liberals and NDP will always be able to out seat the CPC. And if its AV, Liberal and NDP supporters are more likely than CPC supporters to back each other, thus ensuring Liberal win.

Plus, if Trudeau throws in a couple cards which outlaw the playbook the Conservatives use to demonize the opposition and win, we could be looking at a couple rounds of them in 2nd to 3rd place.

Under MMP I think we'd see the Conservatives forced into fundamentally changing their party away from how it was run under Harper. If it becomes clear that under MMP the old Conservative playbook is unelectable, then we'd eventually see that party change. I don't think they'll be satisfied to be in permanent opposition. We'd probably see the Conservatives move a bit left to become a more progressive right of centre party while the Reform elements would split into its own party that the Conservatives would potentially partner with to pass legislation in government.

In New Zealand, where they have MMP, the right of centre National Party has had a long string of success, winning their latest election with 47% (!!!) of the vote (for reference the Canadian Liberals received 39% of the vote). Of course the National Party is not the Conservative Party but the point is that free market, fiscally cautious, right of centre parties have a lot of appeal and can do quite well in an MMP system.

 

[mo60]

Normally I'd say that the CPC should be in good shape, as they still kept a large amount of seats, didn't lose much vote share, and have largely forced all parties into embracing the Conservative view on how the economy should be run. However, judging from the immediate reaction from Conservative MPs and staff, they don't seem to have taken any good lessons from their loss, and are blaming the electorate and the Liberals instead of their own terrible policies.

Potentially the CPC should be in good shape because they have four years to tear everything down and rebuild themselves better and stronger. Unfortunately for them, I'm not sure if they've figured out that they need to do that yet.

The problem is if they will be able to find a good leader and figure out their mistakes in the next few years. It took the liberals like 9 years to do that and I do not think it will just take 4 years for the conservatives to do it either.The election may be even a harbinger of things to come for the Conservatives where the struggle for like a decade to win elections, possibly become more irrelevant then they are right now while the Liberals and possibly a third party like the NDP leap frogs past the conservatives(they end up in third place in a future election possibly) eventually like what happened in 2011 were the NDP beat the liberals.