-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
Chicago Tribune: Trump's tariffs have provided 800 new jobs so far for Illinois Town
- Thread starter xStoyax
- Start date
<+)O Robido O(+>
Member
800? Well, goddamn!
The tariffs will absolutely work if Trump keeps pushing as other countries will have to
acquiesce as they cannot battle an economy of this scale. It will get tough, but the benefits will start to shine in time.
Trump is actually using the economic might available to every president but have all failed to do so. Balance in trade will come, and jobs and the economy will boom. This is what will win Trump a second term.
Vicetrailia
Member
That's great! The economy added 200k+ jobs last month in booming fashion, and 800 steel isn't bad but...
TRUMP’S UNPOPULAR TARIFFS COULD COST U.S. 400,000 JOBS, ECONOMISTS ESTIMATE.
TRUMP’S UNPOPULAR TARIFFS COULD COST U.S. 400,000 JOBS, ECONOMISTS ESTIMATE.
Last edited by a moderator:
Christopher
Member
You source Newsweek? They are utter trash get a better source.
Last edited:
Dr.Guru of Peru
played the long game
The source isn't Newsweek dummy, thats just an article on the analysis.
This is the actual analysis:
http://tradepartnership.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/232RetaliationPolicyBriefJune5.pdf
Vicetrailia
Member
A new report by Trade Partnerships Worldwide, an economic consulting firm in Washington D.C.
The Tax Foundation estimates that the Trump tariffs will immediately result in the loss of 48,585 jobs and that job losses could number as high as 250,000
LMC Automotive last month estimated a 25 percent tariff would reduce U.S. auto sales by 1 million annually. That’s without factoring in the downturn in the American car market that began last year.
The Association of Global Automakers last week predicted that “hundreds of thousands of American jobs” are at risk, while the Japanese government estimated that a minimum 200,000 U.S. workers linked to “transplant” factories, dealerships and other facilities operated by Japanese auto brands could lose their jobs. And the Japanese report said that number could climb as high as 624,000 if it and other trade partners choose to retaliate
So 400k to 1 million jobs isn't that much especially as the economy is pumping 200k+ jobs a month, but Trumps tariffs will not make up for the losses, not even close. It's just moving in a direction that won't yield good results, especially because other countries could escalate the strategy rather than merely retaliating.
Last edited by a moderator:
davepoobond
you can't put a price on sparks
So glad we lost millions of dollars just for 800 jobs
Bungledpatch Silentspue
Neo Member
Totally worth it, isn't it?
PuppetMaster
Member
Not lost yet. Just estimated to lose. Just like Trump was estimated to lose.
Honestly I am not pro trade war. But if you were to have a Trade war with China this is kind of the best time in years to do it. China is at a disadvantage on this one in 2018. This is gonna hurt and has already hurt China a lot more than the US.
Last edited:
TheLaughingStock
Member
Doubtful but thank you for providing an alternative view for context. The net effect on jobs could be roughly 0 over time as well where the job composition changes as a result of disruption. Now I guess others will know how those hurt by the current paradigm/globalization are feeling. Pres. Trump is looking to tip the scales in the US's favor or break the status quo. The only thing stopping him from going all the way is political will to keep things the way they are. We'll see if Trump's team prevails.
Dontero
Banned
"Could"
When people do this math they often try to manipulate data to fit their ideology.
Like in this case. They assume jobs lost in one sector won't be replaced in other.
Let us be clear here. IF some programmer will lose job and in his place there will be 5 jobs in steel works/or any other) this is actually better. The more competition on inside market them more people will earn as companies will start to run out of people and will have to rise prices to match expected wages.
And b4 someone will claim that this "won't work". Since 1970 median US family real wages didn't grow at all.
So clearly previous system didn't benefit people.
Real question is "Is this change for worse ?" For which we are yet to see answer but at least someone tries something new.
GDP =/= real wages:
and some more enlightening chart:
1970 is around time when US went from Internal domestic consuption market into international globalist market.
Up until 1970 internal market decided amount of GDP generated mostly and it was tied to people actually earning stuff. In 1970 US removed trade embargo on China and they started opening completely market on world with low tariffs believing that ANY trade is good.
GDP skyrocketed but wages didn't, in fact for almost 3 DECADES they were worse than pre 1970.
What is more important CHINA clearly understands that and they do everything they can to stop international companies on their market before they will have their own companies etc. They know that key to prosperity of people IS internal market.
Last edited:
Cauliflower of Love
Banned
Eight hundred jobs, which are rehires from a closed plant.
A closed plant directly attributed to a congress filled with assholes who refused to budge or do anything for nearly a decade.
This isn't a win for tariffs. This is last resort measures.
A closed plant directly attributed to a congress filled with assholes who refused to budge or do anything for nearly a decade.
This isn't a win for tariffs. This is last resort measures.
Dontero
Banned
Care to explain now why:
- Every nation on earth has tariffs
- EU, China and Japan have HIGHER tariff rates than US
- EU, China and Japan have SEVERELY hard restrictions on competition from abroad. Especially China which does not allow foreign company to operate unless there is Chinese stake in it.
Since you know that all other parts of world that matter have higher tarrifs and they are ULTRA protestionistic against foreign compnies...
... why then complain about Trump increase in tarrifs.
It's almost as if it was all bull from the start and only served as part of their platform as a code for what they really wanted.
12Goblins
Lil’ Gobbie
Lmao
Arkage
Banned
Because every study created to look at the effects of Trumps tarrifs say they will kill more American jobs than they create. It's really not that hard to figure out.
Last edited:
Cauliflower of Love
Banned
Newsweek isn't the source, they are the reporting medium.
Two sentences into the story is the source:
http://c-7npsfqifvt34x24usbefqbsuof...jfgKvof6.qeg_$/$/$/$/$/$?i10c.ua=1&i10c.dv=14
fucking wow
Yeah, and all those tariffs are stupid. Other countries have economic policies that don't make sense and make them worse off. I don't see why we should copy them.
Last edited:
Dontero
Banned
OR maybe they actually do make sense.
I am with you on idea of free market. Problem here is that free market needs just arbiter and international relations are by definition are without one, which means you can be used as someone sees fit if you don't protect yourself.
Which is why tarrifs exist. EU protects its food sector because it knows that without those protections they won't be able to produce food in EU which is strategical fuckup. Japanese created shitload of really high end electronics companies and pretty amazing internal market for country of only 120mln people and they for sure don't want foreign companies to destroy their own companies. And this song goes for every nation.
Trade goes both ways. If one side earns something then other side should also earn. If trade is inbalanced then it is only right to adjust trade, if someone doesn't want adjustment then tariffs are only logical extension of previous statement.
Actually it is pretty fucking hard to figure out what will change. You will never see anyone saying something like US WILL lose/gain, you always hear could/would.
Secondly i already pointed out that previous model (or current if you want to call it current) CLEARLY doesn't work as opening up market in 70 in US only produced growth in GDP but not in actually median real wages which should be definition of progress not GDP.
Last edited:
Rentahamster
Rodent Whores
In general, I'm pretty skeptical of the predicative power of most economic models. These trade deals/wars ramification projections are similar. There are so many variables at play that it's hard to say what will happen for sure. The big constant I do see, however, is that Trump is a wild card, and things tend to buck the "conventional wisdom" when he's in play. This trade gambit might be great, it might fuck shit up, or maybe it's a net neutral. I have no idea. I'm going to wait and see.
What I would like to know is what the prediction record is like for these various institutions are. I'd tend to give credibility to the projections of those groups that have a good track record for these things, but I dunno what they are, so I can't evaluate them on those merits.
What I would like to know is what the prediction record is like for these various institutions are. I'd tend to give credibility to the projections of those groups that have a good track record for these things, but I dunno what they are, so I can't evaluate them on those merits.
Cauliflower of Love
Banned
This is what troubles me most. I have a little bit of faith people down stream will push back and like "no you can't do this shit" when trying to implement this haphazard moves.
Last edited:
Rentahamster
Rodent Whores
I'm pretty sure they already do.
Vicetrailia
Member
Addressing median wage is a separate issue.
You're mad at other countries and immigrants now, but you aren't mad at your own politicians not addressing inequality. Want a bold america first strategy? Tell them to weaken the dollar.
Automotive companies and trade groups state that 195,000 US jobs could be lost with the auto tariffs if countries don’t retaliate and over 624,000 US jobs lost if countries do.
https://ca.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idCAKBN1JN1T2-OCABS
So +800 here and -600,000 there looks very much like Trump math.
https://ca.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idCAKBN1JN1T2-OCABS
So +800 here and -600,000 there looks very much like Trump math.
Cauliflower of Love
Banned
Remember when he "stood up" for boeing and ended up having airbus buy up bomardier? good times.
gunslikewhoa
Member
You mean every study that's publicized.
quickwhips
Member
It said he barely won in this state so I’m sure they didn’t all vote for him. Way to generalize.
Cauliflower of Love
Banned
Did you quote a wrong post?
quickwhips
Member
Yes I’m sorry. No clue how that happened.
Dontero
Banned
?? I mean in one sentence you say median wage (mind you "real" wage not just median wage as those two are different things) is separate issue and then you say how about fighting inequality ?
That is precisely what you do when you want less inequality. You get people who make 0 make something and generally everyone at lower spectrum do better.
Also i am not US citizent. I live in EU and as someone from EU i fully understand EU game here.
Last edited:
This is good news. Steel production is a serious national security issue.
China produces 50% of the worlds steel, western nations relying on China, an openly hostile nation with conflicting
geopolitical goals to supply our steel is deeply misguided.
The Chinese government subsidies steel production, they make so much steel they do not need so they dump it at low prices the rest of the world has no chance of competing with. It significantly hurts the industries of all other steel producing nations.
China produces 50% of the worlds steel, western nations relying on China, an openly hostile nation with conflicting
geopolitical goals to supply our steel is deeply misguided.
The Chinese government subsidies steel production, they make so much steel they do not need so they dump it at low prices the rest of the world has no chance of competing with. It significantly hurts the industries of all other steel producing nations.
Last edited:
Vicetrailia
Member
The U.S. doesn't get much steel from China (4%), that's for Dontero in the EU to worry about.
But what he did do was convince you to boogeyman China steel, and now the floodgates have opened.
It's funny how there's no justification other than blind faith, normally you'd need to sell a cost justification piece with some ROI or any form of expectations. "In God we trust, all others bring data" - Deming.
Last edited by a moderator:
Super Mario
Banned
Any type of market correction isn't butterflies and rainbows at first. We are getting killed on trade. Many would acknowledge that. Few would do anything. Trump made some bold moves. That is for sure.
The never Trump crowd would rather sit around and complain about the scenario we are in, and fix it by pointing the finger at millionaires and billionaires. Then one day, the rich elite say "you got us, here is the trillions of dollars we hoarded. Have it." There's never any type of actual policy ever from the left. Just feelings.
The never Trump crowd would rather sit around and complain about the scenario we are in, and fix it by pointing the finger at millionaires and billionaires. Then one day, the rich elite say "you got us, here is the trillions of dollars we hoarded. Have it." There's never any type of actual policy ever from the left. Just feelings.
TheLaughingStock
Member
They lifted 100 of millions out of poverty doing it their way. The Chinese definitely have the key to prosperity for sure.
Since their default nearly 80 years ago they've put together an impressive economic run.
When you think about it, China is one of the most protectionist countries on the planet using state directed capitalism and leveraging trade barriers to get rich. They've stolen IP and poached talent like other rich nations. They have ambitious industrial policies like Made in China 2025 that are an attempt to put China in the driver's seat. The country's success and existence is a huge reason why America and others need to rethink how they operate if they want to keep up. Otherwise China is going to leave its competitors in the dust.
llien
Member
We live in an utterly complex world with myriads of factors. Nothing is clear about it. It could have been better, it could have been worse.
Dontero
Banned
Actually we know answer for that.
It is precisely China, EU and Japan. Each of them instead of opening ass wide like US started to protect their market from international competition. Median real wage grown in those nations/ragions.
Everything has two sides though. While US median wages didn't grow US technological output put into a shame EU.
Real question is "what matters the most" and it is not black and white answer. It is gradient between progression of technology and chasing the best and looking back to see if that progress didn't fuck over people to point where they can't pick up themsleves.
If Germany was for example as US they would long gone move all car factories outside of US to China or other cheap labor nation. But they had some oil in head to know that if they do that then people won't be making money thus won't be buying cars in their own nation. They do outsource ! but mostly stuff that goes out of EU while they still mostly keep internal production AND goverment would destroy anyone trying to get those companies to move away from germany.
Other important factor is that with US ass being wide rest of the world improved a lot. Thanks to US nations like China, Taiwan, South Korea thrived and created robust markets because they had access to very big internal market of US AND had advantage of cheap labor which later they transformed into know how.
So overall US policy made world better. But US citizents paid for that, literally in their quality of life.
Last edited:
Dontero
Banned
Not 100mln. 500mln. They are one of the main beneficent of US trade policies, rise of China could not be achieved without access to US internal market.
They are currently in process of going from export based economy to internal market economy. Chinese govs know perfectly that only by doing that they can provide wealth to their people. Exports are important but not as important as internal market.
Haha. We certainly seem to be surrounded by a lot of lefty, bleeding-heart, Harvard Business school economists then. All those feelings. I see them crying all the time in the hallways. Hahaha.
tekumseh
a mass of phermones, hormones and adrenaline just waiting to explode
Good. It's those who put him in office that should reap the benefits of their choice. It's just too bad that when pre-existing conditions are no longer protected by law that his supporters can't exclusively benefit from that...
llien
Member
Would you give us examples of EU and Japan actions of that kind (China is complicated, communist regimes have tricks up their sleeves)
Last edited:
Dirk Benedict
Gold Member
That is why I think Trump has the right idea about space, but not "Space Force"
We seriously need to break away from our reliance on such a nation. It's history has always been no mercy and shake hands with a knife behind the back. I want to say we already know that there are swaths of precious metals in space. I think I read somewhere that China is home to most of the precious metals that have not been unearthed or period.
They already have that advantage by default, AFAIK. If we invested more into space exploration and the technology that could take us there, it would be a significant boon. One that requires a lot of time, intelligent minds and a whole landfill of money, unfortunately.
Here is an old read for the sake of discussion.
Apr 15, 2012
NickFire
Member
I think its sad to assume that the people who voted for Trump were manipulated, as opposed to realizing they knew exactly what they were doing, and voted for him to send a message to both parties and to stop the status quo from continuing any longer.
Arkage
Banned
I agree Trump voters were trying to "send a message." By the way, the status quo has been chugging along just fine politically. The only aspect that changed was that we can now say being a racist old man whose political career flourished by parroting birther conspiracies and who grabs women by the pussy can win the Presidency; not despite of him doing these things but because of them. Trump really did break the status quo barriers in that respect.
TheShadowLord
Member
I find that they going to rebuild the silk road to be quite ambitious and exciting. Sounds like something that is going to be very costly but may pay off in the end.
Similar threads
- Locked