Would certainly blow apart the notion that conference championships matter and early losses don't.
Though I think it's fairly obvious at this point that the committee is just going to do whatever the hell it feels like at the end of the day.
Don't get me wrong: those two things are very true (early losses being essentially irrelevant and conference titles being important to an extent), but I think a lot of other factors come into play when more than 1 team has an argument for an open spot.
Last year, the one thing that I thought was fairly obvious from the start was that early losses don't matter. They've NEVER mattered. EVER. Which is why I was so surprised at how often Virgina Tech was being brought up. For all intents and purposes, it's not about who you lose to, but
when you lose. Everything in the history of forever has always been about "primacy and recency" (but mostly recency in this case).
Now, going by what we saw last year, 3 teams had an argument for the last spot: TCU, Baylor, and Ohio State. And what was the most
recent thing they did?
1. TCU: destroyed an unranked nobody (Iowa State)
2. Baylor: beat No. 9 Kansas State
3. Ohio State: obliterated No. 13 Wisconsin
Going by this, TCU is already out because they didn't beat a ranked team. So it came down to Ohio State and Baylor. The teams they beat were separated by 4 ranking places, so scoreline was the tiebreaker, IMO. Now, had the scorelines been switched, I am also positive that the 4th spot would have gone to Baylor.
Conference championship status is only going to carry so much weight. If Florida beats Alabama, no way is the 4th spot going to Florida. Same goes for the PAC 12. If USC beats Standford and an open spot becomes available, no way is the 4th spot going to USC. The committee makes the assumption that the conference champ is already a highly-ranked team (like in the Michigan State-Iowa situation). So it can only help you if you're in a position to BE helped.
Which makes UNC's situation interesting. They are sitting at No. 10 right now. Is this a good enough position for a conference title to help them? Maybe. Maybe not. I had UNC at No. 9 yesterday....and getting the 4th spot should they upset Clemson. The committee has them at No. 10. Makes it slightly more difficult; the further away you are from the 4th spot, the more impressive your win has to be.
The door is definitely open for UNC though.
Fake edit:
I'm just quickly trying to find a comparable scenario: the OSU-MSU game from 2013. OSU was ranked 2nd and MSU was ranked 10th.
MSU jumped 6 spots to 4th after they won.
With this info, I think UNC has a very good chance of getting that 4th spot should they upset Clemson. There has been plenty of chatter that they would get the spot, AND there is similar precedent for that kind of jump in the polls. I'm gonna go ahead and say that if they win, they're in.
EDIT: But if Stanford also wins....