sonycowboy
Member
Removed
Complete & Unadulterated Current Generation LTD NPD Hardware Totals
- Thread starter sonycowboy
- Start date
DarienA said:
Maybe, but it's not faring much better than the Cube, only ahead of it by nominal amount. And, I need to ask, "inroads" into what? If Sega hadn't pulled the plug on the Dreamcast, it would have "made good inroads." Relative to what, exactly? The fact of the matter is, the PS2 is selling at an astonishing pace, one that has gone unabated since its debut. The Xbox and Cube are not even playing catch-up -- they're flailing about in Sony's wake.
peedi said:
I'm not sure how you can make this statement looking at the difference in sales from 2003 to 2004 in regards the gap between PS2 and Xbox sales. Sure the Xbox has not increased as MUCH as the PS2 has decreased, but it did increase.
Mashing said:
I'm not so sure about this term "market saturation" there are still alot of people who don't own any systems, but I'm in an online class and can't really shift mental modes to get deep in to this discussion.
sonycowboy
Member
jarrod said:
I'm the one that started that spreadsheet from years ago that listed the GBA in May (like July or Aug 2001). I think I did it months later based off a Q1 number for CSFB that didn't jive with the June total, so I just subtracted the difference and put it in May
And it stood until today. :lol
sonycowboy
Member
Odnetnin said:when GAF is going slow. SALES threadToo tired to process all the numbers.
Just wait. I was preparing my February NPD Sales prediction thread and thought I'd give these numbers some time to their own. I'll probably put the prediction thread up on Monday.
Justin Bailey
------ ------
sonycowboy: is there any trick to copy/paste that into excel where the columns match up and everything? I'm bored at work and I was trying to make a line graph or something
sonycowboy
Member
Mashing said:
There are alot of factors to the PS2's dropping number and Microsoft's rising and market saturation isn't one of them. IMO, Sony could have EASILY topped 2003 hardware sales and maybe even come close to 2002 if they had had enough units. The $179 price point simply didn't do enough to bounce sales. Some of the factors that contributed to 2004 hw.
Price drops - This year we hit the mystical $149 price point, but Sony wasn't ready.
Shortages - Both systems could have been higher if they had the production capacity.
Halo 2 - This game sold Xbox's all year long in 2004.
sonycowboy
Member
Justin Bailey said:sonycowboy: is there any trick to copy/paste that into excel where the columns match up and everything? I'm bored at work and I was trying to make a line graph or something
Justin,
Copy the data, paste it into word and save it as text ony. Then open that file in Excel and it should recognize that it's fixed width and take you through a wizard to put the data into columns.
Justin Bailey
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Awesome, thanks man.sonycowboy said:
I might be wrong on this, but I think that Xbox Live has helped Xbox sales. I don't mean sales of Xbox Live necessarily, but just the perception of the Xbox being associated with such a supported service. I also think the lack of that perception hurts Cube sales. (among many, many other things)
Justin Bailey said:sonycowboy: is there any trick to copy/paste that into excel where the columns match up and everything? I'm bored at work and I was trying to make a line graph or something
Paste the data into Excel. Highlight the column and select "Text to Columns". Select "Fixed Width". Remove all splits except for the one seperating the "Comments" column from the rest. That will split off the comments. Move that column over several columns, and then do the same process, but select "Delimted". Check the "Space" box, and Finish.
There's probably an easier way, but that's how I did it.
sonycowboy said:
See, toldja there was an easier way. :lol
DarienA said:
Perhaps the Xbox picked up the pace a bit, but the PS2 hasn't slowed much, excepting the shortages we recently endured. There hasn't been any lessening of the "gap" dividing the two. If anything, it's widened. I count only three instances where the Xbox enjoyed a month ahead of the PS2. That's it. Three.
peedi said:
I think the inroads can be measured in total market share. The PS2 has been pulling ahead in units, but MS has been growing the proportion of total units sold. So yeah, Sony is pulling ahead further, but at a slower rate. (Their rate of increase is decreasing - I'd be interested to see what the derivative of that is, if there are any calculus guru's out there.)
GhaleonEB said:
the bigger you are, the lousier your rate of increasing will ratio out. It means nothing.
Anyhow, the Xbox lifecycle will be cut short once Xenon so expect that momentum or what have you to fall. I wonder how long MS will support Xbox (as in output) once Xenon plans are underway; will they still produce them as they make a rather substantial loss of the machines or do they bail out.
DarienA said:
Ok, look at the yearly totals. The only year the Xbox came close to the PS2, is in 2004 when Halo 2, the system's largest selling title, was released. Now that the fanfare has subsided, and the shortage remedied, the PS2 is well ahead of the Xbox. If the Xbox had shown itself to be consistently competitive, the "inroads" comment might apply.
sonycowboy
Member
Azih said:
Cumulative Totals:
Code:
Month / Period Playstation 2 Xbox Gamecube GB Advance Nintedo DS Comment
Oct-00 391,245 0 0 0 0
Nov-00 578,799 0 0 0 0
Dec-00 1,101,038 0 0 0 0
Jan-01 1,349,090 0 0 0 0
Feb-01 1,582,313 0 0 0 0
Mar-01 2,128,885 0 0 0 0
Apr-01 2,454,899 0 0 0 0
May-01 2,736,780 0 0 0 0
Jun-01 3,080,411 0 0 870,179 0
Jul-01 3,432,346 0 0 1,231,083 0
Aug-01 3,754,120 0 0 1,562,217 0
Sep-01 4,095,420 0 0 1,886,546 0
Oct-01 4,424,461 0 0 2,169,666 0
Nov-01 5,333,382 711,619 647,466 3,093,330 0
Dec-01 7,280,616 1,402,436 1,205,666 4,801,506 0
Jan-02 7,638,587 1,529,470 1,264,378 4,972,056 0
Feb-02 8,053,087 1,667,997 1,341,193 5,380,487 0
Mar-02 8,412,250 1,803,399 1,451,444 5,879,435 0
Apr-02 8,607,957 1,880,856 1,532,639 6,184,352 0
May-02 9,071,666 2,109,770 1,643,702 6,498,498 0
Jun-02 9,761,687 2,373,108 1,850,602 7,045,206 0
Jul-02 10,197,223 2,527,312 1,988,392 7,369,372 0
Aug-02 10,649,635 2,663,981 2,115,693 7,632,108 0
Sep-02 11,181,386 2,835,718 2,281,190 7,904,155 0
Oct-02 11,698,008 3,073,918 2,448,936 8,208,604 0
Nov-02 12,981,819 3,540,880 2,873,192 9,407,093 0
Dec-02 15,668,107 4,572,020 3,463,669 11,545,036 0
Jan-03 16,119,174 4,735,333 3,544,426 11,805,197 0
Feb-03 16,606,472 4,931,505 3,710,468 12,084,361 0
Mar-03 17,005,509 5,095,027 3,873,558 12,781,343 0
Apr-03 17,266,506 5,220,174 3,973,333 13,199,492 0
May-03 17,549,923 5,343,071 4,056,651 13,578,938 0
Jun-03 17,987,133 5,508,932 4,179,847 14,226,971 0
Jul-03 18,297,222 5,645,131 4,305,941 14,708,449 0
Aug-03 18,588,015 5,789,336 4,405,848 15,075,840 0
Sep-03 18,910,068 5,959,201 4,569,514 15,484,565 0
Oct-03 19,202,753 6,134,283 4,822,415 15,884,365 0
Nov-03 20,039,432 6,596,164 5,573,706 17,071,032 0
Dec-03 21,976,890 7,675,590 6,731,935 19,326,299 0
Jan-04 22,307,276 7,865,933 6,862,343 19,620,270 0
Feb-04 22,660,681 8,066,006 6,998,934 19,971,843 0
Mar-04 22,955,118 8,264,451 7,161,962 20,468,259 0
Apr-04 23,143,787 8,561,801 7,258,012 20,760,700 0
May-04 23,397,241 8,778,798 7,335,839 21,029,384 0
Jun-04 23,824,397 9,040,449 7,444,586 21,550,289 0
Jul-04 24,128,966 9,242,422 7,537,524 21,944,377 0
Aug-04 24,340,656 9,459,333 7,646,477 22,256,945 0
Sep-04 24,593,951 9,724,400 7,761,266 22,781,712 0
Oct-04 24,974,491 9,940,245 7,870,098 23,224,988 0
Nov-04 25,670,367 10,648,342 8,220,253 24,342,163 479,695
Dec-04 26,660,586 11,686,300 9,016,987 26,402,606 1,225,594
Jan-05 27,150,588 11,928,675 9,129,314 26,695,523 1,377,685sonycowboy
Member
explodet said:
What they show is that Microsoft and Nintendo have an infrastructure to sell "manufacturer" refurbished systems to Gamestop & EB, whereas Sony does not. In the past weeks, I've spoken at length to retail people and understand better why these numbers are even being reported. However, their inclusion is dubious at best, but it is the case that some percentage of these numbers can be correctly attributed as installed userbase sales. However, some percentage of them are simply doubled counted sales.
NOTE: Nintendo apparently chooses not to do this for the GBA. Clearly, those tiny numbers for PS2 & GBA are errors that have made their way into the NPD data
KeithFranklin
Banned
LTD Refurbished
PS2: 965
Xbox: 567,528
Cube: 127,455
GBA: 72
Something don't look right.
PS2: 965
Xbox: 567,528
Cube: 127,455
GBA: 72
Something don't look right.
sonycowboy
Member
KeithFranklin said:
See my post above. Microsoft & Nintendo both sell "Manufacturer refurbished" console systems to stores (shrinkwrapped and in an official box and everything) whereas Sony does not
sonycowboy
Member
Azih said:
1) Well, if you go just by the 2nd half you're conveniently comparing a system that had a shortage for that entire period to one that (for the most part) did not.
2) The GC did outsell the XBox for 2003 and had "as Reggie said", momentum, but 2004 was simply disastrous for them in worldwide sales.
jarrod said:
From current retail reports, the PS2 is completely dry hasn't been shipping for somewhere over 2 weeks and the specialty stores have been given a memo stating that Sony claims that in April, they will finally be shipping PSTwo's in significant quantity. The Xbox has also remained in extremely short supply, but stores claim to be getting very small shipments (say 4-5 units) every week vs Sony doing larger shipments (say 15-20 units) but at extremely inconsistent intervals and they can go weeks without a shipment.
I believe that there was a crest there during February where they could be readily found and many stores may still be on that crest, but the PS2 shipment situation has gotten worse again.
JoshuaJSlone
Member
GhaleonEB said:
For reference, I'll calculate total market shares for post each year using sonycowboy's numbers up top.
2000
PS2 100%
2001
PS2: 73.6%
XBX: 14.2%
GCN: 12.2%
2002
PS2: 66.1%
XBX: 19.3%
GCN: 14.6%
2003
PS2: 60.4%
XBX: 21.1%
GCN: 18.5%
2004
PS2: 56.3%
XBX: 24.7%
GCN: 19.0%
Ehh, certainly Xbox has done better than GameCube particularly in 2003, but number of months in the lead means little. As has been pointed out before, for instance, Xbox was #1 in November/December 2004, whereas GameCube pulled better numbers in those months the year before and was #2.Speevy said:
Sgt. Killjoy
Member
GBA sold 2,000,000 in November?
sonycowboy
Member
Meier said:
With the DS & PSP being available and the PS2 coming back into stock, I believe it's likely that it will never overtake the PS2. Look at 2004's drop in PS2 sales vs previous years. The GBA would never have gotten within sniffing distance if the PS2 shortage hadn't been so severe and protracted. No knock against the GBA, it's performance has been phenomenal.
Well, just looking at the chart, the GBA has been outsold by the PS2 ~18 months, while the remaining ~25 months had the GBA with the highest total hardware sales. I'm not saying these machines have anything to do with one another, but I personally believe that the DS will never outsell the GBA SP for even a month. (what that means is another thing entirely)
sonycowboy said:
I dont think the PSP or DS will hurt the sales of the GBA considerably personally. They're so much more expensive, that the GBA is much more in line with what a large number of parents would rather spend on their kids. I expect it will still sell a solid 250-300k for the remainder of the year and do over 2+ million in the final two months. It might take until the end of the year, but I definitely expect it will close the gap by then.
Who knows though, PS2 sales should be pretty astronomical when they drop to 100 bucks.
Sgt. Killjoy
Member
GBA sales for January are completely in line with previous Januarys.
sonycowboy
Member
Meier said:
They might also go crazy (PS2 sales) when stores actually have them for sale on a regular basis
.IMO, GBA will most likely not pass PS2 sales, although I expect the GBA to be the 2nd best selling system for 2005 (assuming the PSP doesn't have enough units to really challenge the GBA, even the $250 vs $79 is a tough battle to win if you're just counting individual units)
peedi said:
Doesn't really matter as developers will be making shovelware kids games for the GBA for quite awhile and Nintendo's back catalog sells amazing numbers every month to new owners. Mario Kart has done about 20k or more every month for the past few years now at full price ($30).
A parent can buy 2 GBAs and about 5 games for the price of a PSP and a game -- they simply will not compete with one another. The DS on the other hand has to be worried about the PSP.
JoshuaJSlone
Member
It's funny... according to the older numbers we used this happened in December. However, since sonycowboy presented better numbers it will have to do it again.Meier said:
In 2003 and 2004 GBA sold 3.87 million more than the PS2; another half mil shouldn't be a big problem. Sure the DS and PSP will detract from GBA's numbers, but as the months since DS's launch have shown, there's still plenty of demand left for the GBA. As well, it's not like PS2 won't also have new competition in PSP and XB2.sonycowboy said:
sonycowboy
Member
JoshuaJSlone said:
I think you're simply not giving the horribly bad year the PS2 had in 2004, it's due. The GBA outsold it by 2.4M units, which I will attribute 90% to the PS2 shortages.
That's not going to happen in 2005. And I believe the PSP and DS will have a huge impact on GBA sales going through the year. Not as pronounced as in Japan, but it will have a drop, but will enjoy good sales by virtue of its' $79 price point and it's library of games.
I guess the question you have to ask yourself is this:
Given that the PS2 currently has a 450k unit lead, which system do I expect to sell the most in 2005? The PS2, which has never been able to truly flex the $149 price point or it's remodel because of shortages, or the GBA, which will now have two competitors trying to take market share when it had absolutely no competition before?