If this Holiday is a failure, and the Spring with Mario Kart and Smash Bros. is a failure, it's over, and Nintendo needs to go back to the drawing board.
Their failure lies in their marketing of the console. If they marketed it better (better console name, more playable kiosk throughout retail chains/gamestop chains with new demos every once in a while, more tv ads etc.) it would probably be doing much more decent right now. If they don't bother with marketing then no one's going to bother with the Wii U.