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Decision Desk: Democrats Have 30% Chance of Taking Back the House in 2018

C

CazTGG

Member
The Democratic Party is ahead in generic ballot polls, earning 54.2% of the two-party vote share on average. They hold an 8.4 percentage point lead over the Republicans.
...
According to our 20,000 simulations of the 2018 House midterm election, Democrats have a 30.3% chance of taking back the majority on November 6, 2018. Here is one way of visualizing that probability, where each blue rectangle represents a Democratic majority and each red rectangle is a Republican majority:
unnamed-chunk-9-1-copy.png
Click to expand...

Source: https://decisiondeskhq.com/data-dives/ddhq-2018-house-midterm-forecast/

Vote next year aka. when this thread is old. Also during this year's remaining special elections.
 
R

roytheone

Member
The fact that a republican president that keeps fucking up and has the lowest ratings in history still only leads to a 30 % chance here doesn't make me hopeful for you Americans.
 
R

RDreamer

Member
roytheone said:
The fact that a republican president that keeps fucking up and has the lowest ratings in history still only leads to a 30 % chance here doesn't make me hopeful for you Americans.
Click to expand...

Because of gerrymandering they would need to absolutely fucking curb stomp Republicans into the dirt in order to grab a majority. That's the issue. Democrats got curb stomped during the most crucial year for this shit, 2010. That loss reverberated throughout the next decade. I'll never forgive those that didn't come out and vote that year, especially those that turned their back on Obama because the healthcare law wasn't single payer or some dumb shit. How's that working for you guys now?
 
T

Tagyhag

Member
Honestly, with how shit the D party is. I'll consider it a victory if they don't LOSE seats...

I'll do my part and vote but they have to get their shit together, it's infuriating.
 
C

Chris R

Member
I'll believe it when it happens. Will it actually happen?

2ITKzWi.gif


Maybe there is a shot if Trump truly fucks shit up between now and then, but if we stay the present course of just terrible but nothing major it's not happening.
 
M

Matsukaze

Member
The Democratic Party is ahead in generic ballot polls, earning 54.2% of the two-party vote share on average. They hold an 8.4 percentage point lead over the Republicans.
...
According to our 20,000 simulations of the 2018 House midterm election, Democrats have a 30.3% chance of taking back the majority on November 6, 2018.
Click to expand...
For some reason, I couldn't help but read this in Scott Steiner's voice.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Gerrymandering makes this significantly harder than it should be.

That being said, 30% with over a year to go still is decent. Just need to keep pounding on Trump for his errors and the GOP for supporting him.
 
E

Evil Monkey DTT

Banned
While it should be higher 30 percent is a real number, like there's a chance. We all have to do our part and get as many people as we can to vote.
 
L

Lulu23

Member
I am always shocked by the fact that a vote in the US isn't worth exactly the same regardless of where you voted.

I'll have to google how it's handled in Germany.
 
UberTag

UberTag

Member
Republicans will continue to cheat the system and be rewarded for it.
Indefinitely. Because Democrats will allow them to do it.
They'll keep the house next fall, too.
 
J

JohnsonUT

Member
It is so crucial for Democratic candidates to win MANY governor seats in 2018. In many states, governors are part of the redistricting process that will occur in 2020 and 2021 (often through veto power). This will help to reverse some of the gerrymandering for the entirety of the next decade. If the seats remain Republican...welp.
 
C

CazTGG

Member
One thing to note is that Trump's approval will, in all likelihood, worsen prior to the midterms, so this percentage will likely increase as his rating drops even further. NAFTA negotiations aren't going very well, healthcare reform were falling, the wall may lead to a government shutdown and the thus far neglectful response to Hurricane Harvey will cost innocent people their lives. This isn't even getting into Mueller's investigation potentially coming to a close or any other potential events that could erode what's left of his non-Republican support and/or mobilize Democrats to vote in droves during the remaining 2017 House elections and Alabama senate election, to say nothing of 2018's historically unprecedented midterms.
 
E

Ecotic

Member
The House will break late if it happens. While it's hard to believe, much of America is starting to feel disappointed, but still rooting for him to succeed.

Lulu23 said:
I am always shocked by the fact that a vote in the US isn't worth exactly the same regardless of where you voted.
Click to expand...
I've yet to cast a meaningful vote in my life. Nothing has ever been competitive in my state. My district less so.
 
G

Gorger

Member
I just hope Trump's victory and catastrophic presidency that followed with republicans like usual fucking minorities over while being close to putting tens of millions of people out of health care, was finally enough to create an epiphany for the people in the middle and the moron democrats who stayed home on election day, to actually go out and vote against this insanity.
 
X

XMonkey

lacks enthusiasm.
The midterms are too far away and we live in very chaotic political times at the moment so I don't pay predictions too much mind right now.

That being said, all of you need to vote. Every election. Vote.
 
B

balladofwindfishes

Member
Rumblebones said:
Liberals eating liberals cause they're want to be right and impose purity tests more than they want to win.
Click to expand...

This has nothing to do with nonsense like this and everything to do with the Democrats needing a 10+% win over the Republicans to even have a chance to tie.

In a real democracy where every vote was equal to another person's vote, the Democrats would have like a 90% chance of winning.
 
J

jtb

Banned
Dems already have an enormous lead in the generic ballot. Flipping the house just means continuing to hammer away at those margins to overcome the insane gerrymandering.

It can be done. It will be very difficult, but it can be done.
 
V

viciouskillersquirrel

Member
Gerrymandering is a double edged sword as it leaves a whole bunch of seats equally vulnerable to upset in a wave election as each was specifically engineered to give the Republicans a +3 or so edge versus the national average in their "safe" seats. It means, though that the difference between the status quo and winning big is only a few percent.

If Democrats win in 2018, there's a threshold of support they could cross that would mean big gains all at once.
 
L

Locke562

Member
RDreamer said:
Because of gerrymandering they would need to absolutely fucking curb stomp Republicans into the dirt in order to grab a majority. That's the issue. Democrats got curb stomped during the most crucial year for this shit, 2010. That loss reverberated throughout the next decade. I'll never forgive those that didn't come out and vote that year, especially those that turned their back on Obama because the healthcare law wasn't single payer or some dumb shit. How's that working for you guys now?
Click to expand...

If democrats don't win state and federal level elections in 2020 it'll be another decade like this one. Probably worse. We'll have unique problems like rapid job losses from automation that the republicans will not address.
 
S

Stumpokapow

listen to the mad man
what the hell explains the visualization choice? the order of the simulations is exchangeable (i.e. it doesn't matter if a simulation is simulation 1, 10, 100, or 1000) so there's no reason to give them any spatial layout except insofar as space conveys proportion, which would make you want to stack all the blue together and all the red together.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
theignoramus said:
I dont remember the polls saying Trump would win in Florida, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. I do remember the Clinton campaign thinking they might turn red states like Arizona and Utah blue.
Click to expand...
Polling averages had Trump ahead in Ohio and Florida

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/oh/ohio_trump_vs_clinton-5634.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_clinton-5635.html

MI, PA and WI being off had more to do with the race breaking very late (there were still a high number of Undecideds in most polling of those three states, and the Comey letter came at the worst possible time) and the fact that all three were very small Trump victories. The margin of error simply put them on the wrong side of a coin toss.

Not saying pollsters didn't bungle the last election but it's not reason enough to write them off completely, even if we shouldn't take them as gospel.

Arizona was very close, a 3-point race (closer than actual swing states North Carolina, Iowa and Ohio) and Clinton's camp only thought they could win Utah based on Evan McMullin overperforming.
 
O

OrangeGrayBlue

Member
Can't wait 'till we win the house by one seat and then some asshole in Arkansas or where ever pulls a Jim Justice on us and switches parties after he's sworn in.
 
P

Perfect Cha0s

Member
Aren't there not a lot of viable flips in 2018? I mean, there can be some, but I seem to recall someone pointing out that the seats most likely to flip to blue are going to be up in 2020.
 
A

Autodidact

Banned
Perfect Cha0s said:
Aren't there not a lot of viable flips in 2018? I mean, there can be some, but I seem to recall someone pointing out that the seats most likely to flip to blue are going to be up in 2020.
Click to expand...

Every House seat will be up for reelection next year... like in every general election.
 
M

moffattron9000

Member
Lulu23 said:
I am always shocked by the fact that a vote in the US isn't worth exactly the same regardless of where you voted.

I'll have to google how it's handled in Germany.
Click to expand...

Mixed Member Proportional. You get one vote for your local candidate, and another one for party. The party vote are distributed proportionally so long as a party gets 5 percent of the vote.

Speaking as someone from a country that blatantly stole this system (New Zealand), it's great.
 
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