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[pramod]

I know a topic worded this way would be immediately laughed off and shut down on the "other place", but no, I'm not being facetious. I think this is a realistic question that anyone who isn't in an echo chamber should seriously consider. BTW, I also should preface this by saying that this is assuming that the economy doesn't collapse, there isn't a new war or major terrorist attack, and Trump isn't impeached by 2020.

If you look at the usual list of potential candidates like Bernie, Biden, Gilibrand, Harris, Cory Booker, Warren, etc....With the exception of maybe Biden, what appeal do any of these Dem candidates have to the middle class white people from PA/WI/MI who switched over to vote for Trump in 2016? The problem with the Dems is that there are no centrist candidates left (Hillary was probably the last one the Dems will ever have), and the GOP has actually moved more to the center thanks to Trump. Can the Dems really win a normal national election with a hard left progressive candidate running on strict gun control, open borders, and higher taxes? I just don't see it. I feel that deep down in their hearts a lot of them know that they can't. That's why some of them are already bringing up Russian sabotage in 2020, so they can have someone to blame on another loss to Trump.

BTW I know that it's quite possible that the Dems crush the Repubs in the upcoming midterms, but even if that happens it's not a good indication of presidential elections(as we saw in 2012). I think a lot of Dems' enthusiasm is misplaced if they think that a midterm "blue wave" automatically carries over to a national election.

 

[Acerac]

The Rock could beat him.

I love America.

 

[Blackie]

I know a topic worded this way would be immediately laughed off and shut down on the "other place"

Is this type of shade necessary? Jeez. See too much of it on GAF recently, makes some of us look bitter and seems unproductive

Anyway I am not sure. Biden/Kamala Harris seem ok to me but who knows if they will run. I would totally vote for Bernie but he may be too old. Perhaps Democrats will have an awesome darkhorse candidate?

 

[Naudi]

Yes they can. He barely beat Hillary and lost the popular vote by millions and she was pretty much universally hated by everyone I know. But I assume he's going to start some bullshit war to try and pull the patriots heart strings to win next election. We shall see.

 

[Sàmban]

Just couldn’t resist bitching about Resetera lol. It makes you look whinny.

Trump has not moved the republicans to the center as nothing about their platform has changed. If anything he has encouraged some of the more unhinged elements of the party to take office, radicalizing it slightly. But not a whole lot has changed about the gop.

I believe Democrats definitely can. Other than Biden, I don’t know enough about the others to say.

The rest of your post just reeks of insecurity with borderline conspiracies.

 

[RokkanStoned]

I don't think you need a centrist to win the PA/WI/MI voters back. Typical left-wing economic policies would most certainly work. I would avoid the term "job retraining" and such things, because honestly people have an identity connected to their job and it's something that's harder to adapt to at older ages. More so job retraining has a lot of flaws that makes it less than ideal and possibly ineffective.
They also need to be less antagonistic, sidelining Trump, while keeping attention on the voters. If you want to avoid polarization, don't position yourself to appear antagonistic to the voter base. Also, get a candidate with some charm and built them up to be a rising star, a sort of underdog.

 

[Composer]

I think if Biden runs, it'll be an easy win for Democrats. Plus Biden has the chops to go against Trump's dirty debate tactics.

 

[JDB]

A pretty unpopular Democratic candidate beat Trump in terms of raw votes and was pretty close in terms of the electoral college after two terms of a Democratic president. I think a message of 'No more Trump' will be a lot easier to sell than '4 more years of Obama' was in terms of getting people actually out to vote. I don't think it's that comparable with 2012 because the gap that the Republicans had to close from 2008 was much larger. That said, it's way too early to tell a million things could happen between now and then that could change things drastically.

 

[Spheyr]

Trump is going to serve two terms as President.

 

[HoodWinked]

I hear some rumblings for Eric Garcetti, but who knows maybe his candidacy may just end up being a bit underwhelming like another mayor Martin O'Malley.

 

[Ichabod]

I think if Oprah decided to throw her hat into the race, she'd be pretty much unstoppable

 

[Autoignition]

Holy shit the midterms aren't even here yet.

This is like putting Christmas decorations out in August. Just no. Stop. We don't know who's even going to run yet, so how could we even determine which one is good?

ETA: also the amount of people in this thread who don't seem to realize that Joe Biden is 75 years old is alarming.

 

[JDB]

Trump is going to serve two terms as President.

I know you're a Trump fanboy, but for the sake of the discussion at least explain the reasons why you think that.

 

[pramod]

I know you're a Trump fanboy, but for the sake of the discussion at least explain the reasons why you think that.

Here's my own 2 cents, I feel that the Dems still have the wrong strategy. Their message in 2020 will still be dominated by identity politics, virtue signaling, and gun control. These things will not win them any states except those they already won in 2016. They are solely relying on turnout and changing demographics to win them elections, which is not a terrible strategy overall, but I don't think the demographics will be enough in 2020 to carry them. There's still too many white people in the Midwest.

 

[Autoignition]

Here's my own 2 cents, I feel that the Dems still have the wrong strategy. Their message in 2020 will still be dominated by identity politics, virtue signaling, and gun control. These things will not win them any states except those they already won in 2016. They are solely relying on turnout and changing demographics to win them elections, which is not a terrible strategy overall, but I don't think the demographics will be enough in 2020 to carry them. There's still too many white people in the Midwest.

I think you're making the mistake of assuming that most people are inherently ideological. They're not. The most common thing I hear from the "Obama to Trump" voters is "I voted for change with Obama, and I voted for change again with Trump." People will keep trying new things until they find something that they like. And the more that white people feel lied to and betrayed by Trump, the more that will turn to vote against him in 2020.

Even though Obama won re-election in 2012, some states did flip on him. He lost IN and NC between 2008 and 2012. If Trump loses those two and then one more, he's done.

 

[pramod]

And the more that white people feel lied to and betrayed by Trump, the more that will turn to vote against him in 2020.

How did he betray them? He has been trying to do everything he promised, the only thing stopping him are the Democrats and the never-Trump Republicans like McCain, Flake, etc.

 

[Autoignition]

How did he betray them? He has been trying to do everything he promised, the only thing stopping him are the Democrats and the never-Trump Republicans like McCain, Flake, etc.

Have you not realized by now that people's feelings do not always align with context and reality? If someone feels some type of way, no amount of facts, figures, links, sources, or context is going to sway them. And if your family is broke and you're still waiting on Trump's promises to come through so that you can send your kids to school, or get off food stamps, or get basic healthcare, you tend to not really care what the reason for the broken promise is. The fact of the matter is that you're still out of work, your family is still struggling, and you need something to change.

Again: people are not inherently ideological. They also tend to not be very politically intelligent. Most people do not consume news and follow every little update the way that people here on GAF do, and I think that a problem that is extremely rampant on both sides of the aisle is just assuming that people will understand, given the circumstances.

No. They won't. Because they have more important things to worry about than following every little bit of DC drama. Fix it or you're out. That's how America largely operates.

 

[Musky_Cheese]

I like me some Biden. Politicians who have no filter are entertaining.

 

[pramod]

Have you not realized by now that people's feelings do not always align with context and reality? If someone feels some type of way, no amount of facts, figures, links, sources, or context is going to sway them. And if your family is broke and you're still waiting on Trump's promises to come through so that you can send your kids to school, or get off food stamps, or get basic healthcare, you tend to not really care what the reason for the broken promise is. The fact of the matter is that you're still out of work, your family is still struggling, and you need something to change.

Again: people are not inherently ideological. They also tend to not be very politically intelligent. Most people do not consume news and follow every little update the way that people here on GAF do, and I think that a problem that is extremely rampant on both sides of the aisle is just assuming that people will understand, given the circumstances.

No. They won't. Because they have more important things to worry about than following every little bit of DC drama. Fix it or you're out. That's how America largely operates.

You don't have to be a daily follower of Fox News to realize that Dems are 100% opposed to anything Trump wants, and that he is hated by the Republican establishment. Also another Democratic fallacy is the belief that most Trump voters are uninformed, or "dumb".

 

[Autoignition]

You don't have to be a daily follower of Fox News to realize that Dems are 100% opposed to anything Trump wants, and that he is hated by the Republican establishment. Also another Democratic fallacy is the belief that most Trump voters are uninformed, or "dumb".

You're taking my words and twisting them into attacks when they very much are not. I'm talking about people's real-life, every-day, day-to-day struggles and how many people in this country feel like they're out of time and need a change. That doesn't make them dumb people -- it makes them working, busy people who can't afford to sit around and break down who to blame while continuing to hold onto a figurehead in power just because of perceived unfairness.

The Republicans hold all three branches of government. Trump ran as a uniter and a master negotiator. If he can't get shit done in a government wholly owned by his own party, he's broken the biggest promise that he made during the campaign: running the country like a business and striking deals. That's what people see, because again, people are not inherently ideological, people do not typically have loyalty to one party over the other. Trump promised to negotiate and strike deals. He's proven himself incapable. And the more I talk to Trump voters, the more I see this sentiment get raised.

 

[davepoobond]

He is getting two terms unless he is forcibly removed.

 

[Platinumstorm]

I have no enthusiasm for 2020. I think it's ok that we don't have a rockstar, though. More than anything Democrats need to have a rational candidate, and frankly a boring candidate might be the most preferential thing possible.

I think Democrats have a problem of purity testing that they have to get past, in addition to the constant marginalizing and disrespecting of the Republican voter bases; particularly the rural voter. Lamb, in PA, is in essence a centrist if not conservative Democrat, and I think that's the kind of candidate needed. Biden has the best chance at this point in time, but anything can happen. Someone like Hickenlooper of CO to pair along with Biden.

 

[AgentP]

I don't think Trump is who will be on the 2020 ticket.

 

[TheLaughingStock]

Can the Dems really win a normal national election with a hard left progressive candidate running on strict gun control, open borders, and higher taxes? I just don't see it.

Yes, they can win any election. You should be able to see this because Pres. Trump just ran a successful anti-establishment campaign to MAGA.

Remember, when Pres. Trump rode down that escalator a lot of people were saying he didn't have a chance. But it's self-evident that he did have a shot if he could convince people to nominate him i.e. give Donald Trump the opportunity to represent the GOP.

Correspondingly, that should show you the motive of people saying those things. It was to dismiss Trump from the race ASAP in favor of who they wanted. They don't understand probability. They don't understand uncertainty. They don't understand risk. Yet they threw cold water on an outsider like Trump to make folks feel as if you're wasting your time if you support anyone other than who they like.

With said, accordingly, a hard left candidate can win too if they manage to get nominated. Just like Trump did. It's obviously not impossible. One of Bernie Sanders biggest problems wasn't his policies (although they were problematic). It was the fact a lot people on his own side thought he couldn't win if he won the nomination. They probably believed it more strongly than Republicans did. So, they went with the person that allegedly gave them the best chance to win and lost everything they claimed they'd lose out on if they rolled the dice on the socialist.

 

[Kotzen Ducha]

I think if Biden runs, it'll be an easy win for Democrats. Plus Biden has the chops to go against Trump's dirty debate tactics.

Biden gropes children and will be the easiest target to character assassinate.

That swerve says it all

 

[Platinumstorm]

With said, accordingly, a hard left candidate can win too if they manage to get nominated. Just like Trump did. It's obviously not impossible. One of Bernie Sanders biggest problems wasn't his policies (although they were problematic). It was the fact a lot people on his own side thought he couldn't win if he won the nomination. They probably believed it more strongly than Republicans did. So, they went with the person that allegedly gave them the best chance to win and lost everything they claimed they'd lose out on if they rolled the dice on the socialist.

And, which swing states will go for the hard left candidate?

 

[StrikeNinja24]

How did he betray them? He has been trying to do everything he promised, the only thing stopping him are the Democrats and the never-Trump Republicans like McCain, Flake, etc.

Tell that to the people freaking out about the spending bill. Even Fox News was destroying him on that one.

 

[ProfessorLobo]

I don't think Trump is who will be on the 2020 ticket.

One way or another, i definitely would bet on this.

 

[TheLaughingStock]

And, which swing states will go for the hard left candidate?

I think someone like that could get Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin if people gave them a chance just like Trump. If Pres. Trump can find a path to over 300 electoral votes doing it his way, then I think someone on the left could do the same.

 

[AaronB]

Trump would have to avoid impeachment, avoid being fatally undermined by his own party, avoid taking the blame for an economic collapse, and still be healthy and motivated enough to seek a second term. If all that happens, I suspect the Democrats could snatch defeat from the jaws of victory in 2020. I'm starting to think this could happen even without the massive personal unpopularity that Hillary Clinton brought to the table.

Main reasons:

The liberal echo chamber seems stronger by the day. More self-righteous, more angry, more demanding. The people who consider themselves "in" take an increasingly dim view of everyone who's "out", and the bar is set ever higher to remain "in". The 'deplorables' comment seemed to backfire, and I could see similar lines driving away anyone remotely moderate by 2020.

Approval of congress is at 14%. Trump's approval ratings are really bad, but I'd suggest that the approval rating of congress reflects approval of the political parties apart from Trump. If we can't elect a congress that we can approve of a lot more than that, and Trump manages to keep just enough people preferring him to the alternatives, he could win an election again.

 

[mid83]

As somebody who considers himself a moderate conservative, I’m completely on board with a moderate Democrat like Biden. I didn’t vote for Trump in 2016 and I don’t see any reason why I would in 2020. If the Dems nominate a more progressive candidate like Warren, Sanders, Harris etc... I’ll just go 3rd party or stay home.

To be fair I think the Dems stand a good chance if they don’t nominate a far left progressive. A more likeable moderate Dem I think could pull in NeverTrump conservatives or skeptical Trump voters who basically only voted for Trump because they despised Hillary.

That said, if the left continued to double down on calling everybody who isn’t in full agreement with their ideology a racist/homophobe/bigot/transphone/sexist/facist/neo-nazi, then I think that’s going to keep away enough more reasonable Democrats and potential moderate or anti-Trump conservatives who could be allies with a reasonable Democratic candidate.

 

[Frozen Bagel]

Don't think Trump would even be around for the 2020 ticket by then assuming the Dems win the midterms and begins the impeachment process, which would unfold during the rest of Trump's term just as it happened to Bill Clinton.

 

[rokkerkory]

Mueller will beat him

 

[Lionel Richie]

He is getting two terms unless he is forcibly removed.

Agreed, the democrats ship has sailed and that serves them right for having the nerve to run Hillary. I'm not american so I can't comment with crazy accuracy, but from the outside looking in her campaign was such a clusterfuck of disproportionate conditions that I can't see them getting it right 2 years from now. On the other hand, it is Trump we're talking about so there's plenty of time for him to self destruct though.

 

[Fox Mulder]

Trump could win re-election. He's not getting impeached and the Dems will probably toss up another shit candidate.

 

[womfalcs3]

Trump was only elected to nominate conservative judges. His voters overlooked his personal deficiencies because of that. Now that he'd be done, he won't be relected in 2020. A cat would beat him.

 

[Corrik]

Anyone Dems trot out can beat Trump. He is one of the most unliked Presidents of all time.

 

[JDB]

Here's my own 2 cents, I feel that the Dems still have the wrong strategy. Their message in 2020 will still be dominated by identity politics, virtue signaling, and gun control. These things will not win them any states except those they already won in 2016. They are solely relying on turnout and changing demographics to win them elections, which is not a terrible strategy overall, but I don't think the demographics will be enough in 2020 to carry them. There's still too many white people in the Midwest.

I'd be surprised if they didn't run on healthcare as well which is going to be a big factor.

 

[longdi]

Im an outsider but im surprised your other opposition dont have some one more charismatic than Donald?

With the recent developments, it is real threat that Trump will enact protectism, white supremacist, hawkish policies while sucking Putin ass. He and his trolls will do so much internal damages, you going to give him 6 more years?

Surely that is not good for US and rest of whole world?

 

[pramod]

Im an outsider but im surprised your other opposition dont have some one more charismatic than Donald?

With the recent developments, it is real threat that Trump will enact protectism, white supremacist, hawkish policies while sucking Putin ass. He and his trolls will do so much internal damages, you going to give him 6 more years?

Surely that is not good for US and rest of whole world?

They do have charismatic candidates. The problem is those candidates want to open the borders to allow illegal immigrants to flood into the country so we end up like Sweden or worse...take away fundamental rights to bear arms, and call people who don't support their leftist policies "deplorables". It's not a winning strategy.

 

[Ridcully]

Anyone Dems trot out can beat Trump. He is one of the most unliked Presidents of all time.

Untrue, another Hillary run would go worse than the last one. Anyone else and they have a good shot, since Hillary is the main reason they lost last time.

 

[Cato]

To be honest. They can field any warm seat, except Hillary, and win by ease.

Hillary is still in the race and poisoning the DNC so who knows how it will play out.
(I say this as someone with conservative leanings. As long as neither Trump or Hillary wins it is a win for eveyrone.)

 

[Spheyr]

Don't think Trump would even be around for the 2020 ticket by then assuming the Dems win the midterms and begins the impeachment process, which would unfold during the rest of Trump's term just as it happened to Bill Clinton.

Yeah he'll lose a reelection bid just like Clinton did.


Oh

 

[Tumle]

Trump is going to serve two terms as President.

Did you post in the wrong thread? Pretty sure that wasn’t the question asked here..
But good for you on that belief I guess..

I’d love to see someone like Bernie
Sanders running again.. but I’m not that dedicated to American politics to actually know if there are any more like him in the Democratic Party..
I’m saying this as European
As a European most of American politics looks like its right wing..

 

[Kadayi]

As a Eurolander looking in, it seemed to me that Clinton's principal mistake was one of utter complacency. I think she pretty much assumed that her presidency was a given and the inherent liberal bias of the mainstream news media resulted in an echo chamber of such conviction that she, her supporters, and even supposedly sober statisticians like Nate Silver never doubted the result. Truth is though when you looked beyond the main numbers and got into the broader polls it was a much tighter race than what the press was saying.

Honestly at this stage given the media has been relentless in attacking Trump 24/7 I think it's hard for them to see the wood for the trees when it comes to Trump's actual ground level popularity (which will be for the vast majority be driven more by peoples economic reality and self-interest rather than loftier subjects). If the Democrats want to win in 2020, then they need to drop the whole Russia hacking angle (which frankly seems as fruitless as looking for WMDs in Iraq at this juncture). Instead what they should be concentrating on is finding viable candidates and I would say fresh faces are required rather than betting the farm on either Clinton, Biden or even Warren at this juncture (that Pocahontas jab has stuck like glue). More importantly, though, they need to be a selling an actual vision for the future. Saying the other guy is terrible isn't enough.

 

[JDB]

As a Eurolander looking in, it seemed to me that Clinton's principal mistake was one of utter complacency. I think she pretty much assumed that her presidency was a given and the inherent liberal bias of the mainstream news media resulted in an echo chamber of such conviction that she, her supporters, and even supposedly sober statisticians like Nate Silver never doubted the result. Truth is though when you looked beyond the main numbers and got into the broader polls it was a much tighter race than what the press was saying.

Honestly at this stage given the media has been relentless in attacking Trump 24/7 I think it's hard for them to see the wood for the trees when it comes to Trump's actual ground level popularity (which will be for the vast majority be driven more by peoples economic reality and self-interest rather than loftier subjects). If the Democrats want to win in 2020, then they need to drop the whole Russia hacking angle (which frankly seems as fruitless as looking for WMDs in Iraq at this juncture). Instead what they should be concentrating on is finding viable candidates and I would say fresh faces are required rather than betting the farm on either Clinton, Biden or even Warren at this juncture (that Pocahontas jab has stuck like glue). More importantly, though, they need to be a selling an actual vision for the future. Saying the other guy is terrible isn't enough.

Republicans have run on 'fuck the other side' for a while now and it seems to be working out pretty well. The main reason why it didn't really work on Trump is because he hasn't actually been in office yet so a lot of people were willing to give him a chance and mix things up from the status quo. He'll lose that advantage next election. Obviously that shouldn't be the only focus, but people who want change will almost always be more likely to vote than people who want to keep it the way it is.

 

[Boss Mog]

Do they have one: yes. They probably have hundreds; the question is will they pick one that can, because Hillary was like the only one that couldn't beat him and yet they picked her, sabotaging others (that would have won) along the way. I'm not sure that Trump will want to go for another 4 years if he even survives his first 4. Still, no matter who ends up running, the dual party system ensures that no matter who wins, America loses.

 

[Kadayi]

Republicans have run on 'fuck the other side' for a while now and it seems to be working out pretty well.

Did it work for them against Obama? Or against Bill Clinton? No. It's not a viable strategy for the most part against elected incumbents which Trump will be. Why would it miraculously work for the Democrats? The differential as to why Trump won versus Clinton was because for better or worst the guy was selling an aspirational vision for the US (let's set realism aside). What was Clinton selling? Disdain for middle America and the prospect of World War 3 with Russia over a distance country probably 99.9% of the US likely couldn't give a stuff about. I dare say her tough talk was music to the ears of assorted interests around the globe, and endless gushing column inches in the foreign press, but it wasn't putting ticks in the ballot box.

 

[JDB]

Did it work for them against Obama? Or against Bill Clinton? No. It's not a viable strategy for the most part against elected incumbents which Trump will be. Why would it miraculously work for the Democrats? The differential as to why Trump won versus Clinton was because for better or worst the guy was selling an aspirational vision for the US (let's set realism aside). What was Clinton selling? Disdain for middle America and the prospect of World War 3 with Russia over a distance country probably 99.9% of the US likely couldn't give a stuff about. I dare say her tough talk was music to the ears of assorted interests around the globe, and endless gushing column inches in the foreign press, but it wasn't putting ticks in the ballot box.

Obama was a lot more popular than Trump is to begin with, though. The difference between Hillary Clinton and him wasn't nearly as big compared to that so it takes a lot fewer people to take a win. I'm not saying it's something that should be their main focus, but I don't think it would be necessarily detrimental either.

 

[JORMBO]

As some one who voted for Trump I think he could be pretty easily beaten next time. He is not very popular. He did not win by much last time and he was against an almost equally unpopular candidate. If the Dems run someone who isn’t as unpopular as Hillary and run a decent campaign I think he can be beaten.

I’m not sure who that would be in the current line up. They would have to pick someone not ultra progressive. I think Biden could easily beat him, but he is up there in age. Just one example - my parents are hardcore Republican and sat out the last election because Trump is an idiot. They actually said they would have voted for someone like Biden if the Dems ran a candidate like that. They wouldn’t have been too excited with him, but felt the country would get by for 4 years with someone like him better.