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[Spheyr]

Did you post in the wrong thread? Pretty sure that wasn’t the question asked here..
But good for you on that belief I guess..

I’d love to see someone like Bernie
Sanders running again.. but I’m not that dedicated to American politics to actually know if there are any more like him in the Democratic Party..
I’m saying this as European
As a European most of American politics looks like its right wing..

No, I did not post in the wrong thread. "Do the Democrats have a viable candidate who can beat Trump?" was the question. I answered "No."

 

[TheMikado]

Almost anyone could win against Trump at this point. Shoot he may not even be safe against his own party.

 

[Kadayi]

Obama was a lot more popular than Trump is to begin with, though. The difference between Hillary Clinton and him wasn't nearly as big compared to that so it takes a lot fewer people to take a win. I'm not saying it's something that should be their main focus, but I don't think it would be necessarily detrimental either.

See the thing is, you keep going back to this popularity thing as if that is the clincher. The point of what I was saying is that the media narratives regarding Trump have gotten so screwy in the mainstream press it's hard to gauge whether they are representative of the broader actual reality or not. Trump saying daft things on Twitter that might get CNN all hot and bothered isn't going to count against him if the US economy is in great shape and unemployment is low come election time for the vast majority of people. Albeit not in the same league, Bush Jnr said all manner of stupids, but it didn't result in him losing to Kerry. Economic self-interest will win out every time, and if everything is rosy, you as the opposition need to present a pretty compelling argument to get people to upset the apple cart.

 

[Spheyr]

Almost anyone could win against Trump at this point. Shoot he may not even be safe against his own party.

That's what everyone said in 2016, too.

 

[JDB]

See the thing is, you keep going back to this popularity thing as if that is the clincher. The point of what I was saying is that the media narratives regarding Trump have gotten so screwy in the mainstream press it's hard to gauge whether they are representative of the broader actual reality or not. Trump saying daft things on Twitter that might get CNN all hot and bothered isn't going to count against him if the US economy is in great shape and unemployment is low come election time for the vast majority of people. Albeit not in the same league, Bush Jnr said all manner of stupids, but it didn't result in him losing to Kerry. Economic self-interest will win out every time, and if everything is rosy, you as the opposition need to present a pretty compelling argument to get people to upset the apple cart.

Sorry, I should've specified that I was talking about the amount of votes they got. The gap in 2008 was almost 10m votes in favor of Obama whereas in 2016 it was already almost 2m in favor of Clinton. It's should be a lot easier to put yourself over the top comparatively. It wouldn't have taken much to tip the elections in either direction in 2016.

 

[bucyou]

Yeah, trot gropin' Joe out there, that should be interesting.

 

[Spheyr]

Yeah, trot gropin' Joe out there, that should be interesting.

Joe "Kid Sniffer" Biden

 

[The Sane Psycho]

Sorry if I'm derailing, but what I would really love is a Libertarian victory. Probably won't happen anytime soon though. I'm certainly not holding my breath.

 

[JDB]

Joe "Kid Sniffer" Biden

Versus Donald 'Grab 'em by the pussy' Trump
Fight for the ages.

 

[bucyou]

Versus Donald 'Grab 'em by the pussy' Trump
Fight for the ages.

If you don't understand the concept of consensual activity vs. groping women and children, then you have a problem.

 

[Spheyr]

Versus Donald 'Grab 'em by the pussy' Trump
Fight for the ages.

Yep... you sure can grab consenting women who throw themselves at you because you're famous.

 

[Deleted member 12837]

They do have charismatic candidates. The problem is those candidates want to open the borders to allow illegal immigrants to flood into the country so we end up like Sweden or worse...take away fundamental rights to bear arms, and call people who don't support their leftist policies "deplorables". It's not a winning strategy.

Could you post links to sections in those candidates' platforms that call for these things? I'm not aware of any high profile Democrat asking for either banning guns entirely or getting rid of our border protection and vetting of immigrants.

 

[JDB]

If you don't understand the concept of consensual activity vs. groping women and children, then you have a problem.

I'm not here to defend Biden. He has for sure looked like a creep in several videos and pictures.
I had something written about the entire Trump sexual harassment thing, but I think I'll leave it because I can't be bothered to open that can of worms.

 

[mid83]

Sorry if I'm derailing, but what I would really love is a Libertarian victory. Probably won't happen anytime soon though. I'm certainly not holding my breath.

I wish I could get more on board with the Libertarian Party, because there are certain aspects of their platform I really like. Unfortunately, the party seems to full of a bunch of wackos, like John McAfee, who actually had a shot at the nomination.

 

[SDCowboy]

I honestly highly doubt Trump runs for a second term, and even if he does, I can't see him winning.

The only way I see a Republican winning in 2020 is if the Dems try to get cute with who they roll out there.

 

[SDCowboy]

The Rock could beat him.

I love America.

No joke, I think he would easily win. He's charismatic as fuck, ridiculously popular, and would likely be able to accomplish the impossible - get more young people to actually vote.

 

[Spheyr]

I honestly highly doubt Trump runs for a second term, and even if he does, I can't see him winning.

The only way I see a Republican winning in 2020 is if the Dems try to get cute with who they roll out there.

I like posts like this.

He's already registered his 2020 campaign and made an announcement that he's running for reelection, but for people who feel they've got their ear to the political pulse, that's way too much to keep track of.

 

[SDCowboy]

I like posts like this.

He's already registered his 2020 campaign and made an announcement that he's running for reelection, but for people who feel they've got their ear to the political pulse, that's way too much to keep track of.

That doesn't mean he'll actually run. It's a smart move as president to register to run for a second term, whether they actually plan to or not.

Maybe he will still actually run, but I can't see it. He'd be in his mid 70's at that point.

 

[TheLaughingStock]

And I have doubts the republican party wants him back.

If GOP voters want Pres. Trump like last time, then the Republican party doesn't really have a free choice but to accept him as the leader of their party. Or else it will end badly for them if they pick someone else.

 

[Autoignition]

Yeah he'll lose a reelection bid just like Clinton did.


Oh

Clinton wasn't impeached until the end of his second term. da fuq.

 

[llien]

Had there been a reasonable explanation on why political ratings failed to predict the outcome of the last elections so miserably?

As for Trumps presidency, given the scale of changes he's pushing, it will depend on the effectiveness of his moves much more than what candidate the other side will have.

 

[TrainedRage]

Its two years from the election and the democrats don't even have options they are considering to run against him. If they want a chance they need to shift focus from attacking EVERYTHING Trump does and start putting out a message and candidate that people will support.

 

[Spheyr]

Clinton wasn't impeached until the end of his second term. da fuq.

I know.

 

[Deleted member 12837]

Had there been a reasonable explanation on why political ratings failed to predict the outcome of the last elections so miserably?

You mean other than: "that's how statistics work?"

I'm pretty sure the states Hilary lost that swung the election were almost all within the margin of error. Also, people latch on to anything above a 60-70% chance as a "certainty" for whatever reason.

 

[RokkanStoned]

They generally need someone with charm and little baggage (even the conservatives that hated him can't deny that he had charm and an aura of optimism). This means no Elizabeth Warren, with her ridiculous native american baggage. They should also probably avoid Joe Biden, if they're going to go after Trump, as it's a bit unpredictable, even if I think he'll probably win.
They also need to back off Trump, not getting dragged into making it about him, instead focusing on a unifying message and a reason to vote for their candidate that's not defined by the opposition. Media also needs to be less sensational and letting Trump dominate the headlines.

 

[llien]

You mean other than: "that's how statistics work?"

Well, yes, that's how statistics work with big numbers, me thinks.

I'm pretty sure the states Hilary lost that swung the election were almost all within the margin of error. Also, people latch on to anything above a 60-70% chance as a "certainty" for whatever reason.

That's exactly the point, they weren't:.
One 2016 poll that I recall was showing 53% Clinton, 46% Trump, with margin of error at 2.6%
Majority were showing a gap of 5-7%, with 2%-ish margin or error.

 

[ickythingz]

I like me some Biden. Politicians who have no filter are entertaining.

He has fondled enough little girls on camera to disgust me. I find it interesting there are people who would vote for this, though.

 

[SDCowboy]

Bottom line, even though I think the Dems will win 2020 (barring a horrendous candidate), they need someone that will spark young people to actually get out and vote.

If young people actually voted at a decent level, the Democrats would likely never lose another presidential election again.

 

[GAFDooMsDaY]

I like how this place has turned into "can the left do this, can the left do that"

How's this place went from far left central to far right central in a few months is the weirdest thing ever.

 

[Spheyr]

Bottom line, even though I think the Dems will win 2020 (barring a horrendous candidate), they need someone that will spark young people to actually get out and vote.

If young people actually voted at a decent level, the Democrats would likely never lose another presidential election again.

You don't think perpetual uniparty rule is a bit uh... terrifying, regardless of party?

 

[SDCowboy]

You don't think perpetual uniparty rule is a bit uh... terrifying, regardless of party?

I never said it was good. I'm just stating the likely - that if Dems could ever actually get young people to vote in larger number, they'd likely never lose again.

 

[Corrik]

I like how this place has turned into "can the left do this, can the left do that"

How's this place went from far left central to far right central in a few months is the weirdest thing ever.

Pretty sure I am a Republican and just stated Dems can trot out anyone and beat Trump right now at this point.

Sure is far right.

 

[pramod]

Could you post links to sections in those candidates' platforms that call for these things? I'm not aware of any high profile Democrat asking for either banning guns entirely or getting rid of our border protection and vetting of immigrants.

I'm not saying they want to ban guns entirely, but they all seem to support the loud voices on the left who want to raise what qualifies someone to own guns to a level that seems to violate the 2nd amendment, ie make it so restrictive that a large portion of the population will no longer own guns.

As for immigration, they are simply ok with what is currently being done. IE, nothing. No Democrats are interested in any sort of increase in enforcement, deportation, or border security. They like the status quo. Where we still get a steady influx of illegals and every decade we inevitably have to DACA-ize or legalize millions of them.

 

[JordanN]

A Democrat who is tough on illegal immigration and looks out for the White working class would win right now.

The question is where do you find such a person and convince the Democratic Party to lead them? American politics have made themselves too divisive by labeling the other side all sorts of hateful words, instead of gathering the best ideas from both and implementing them.

 

[TheLaughingStock]

Had there been a reasonable explanation on why political ratings failed to predict the outcome of the last elections so miserably?

By ratings, did you mean "pundits" or "experts"?

You may want to look at this CNN article.

Or if you're more technical, then check out this Twitter thread and draw your own conclusions.

 

[TrainedRage]

Yes The Rock is on the list.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...dates-for-2020-ranked/?utm_term=.8717ff59f788

 

[Kittehkraken]

The Rock isn't committing career suicide by running for President. Trump running changed the way the game is played. Why would the Rock want his name and his family dragged through the dirt? Same goes for Oprah.

Could he beat Trump? Probably, but he would ruin everything he's built up until this point. Trump was well liked before he ran for President. People liked his eccentric behavior. But the second he took running for President serious, he became this monster that is only rivaled by Hitler himself. Doesn't matter if The Rock is a good guy, people will make a monster out of him.

I just don't see him, or Oprah, taking that risk. But you never know...freaking Donald Trump is President, anything is possibly.

 

[Corrik]

I thought the Rock said he would run as Republican if he ran.

 

[rokkerkory]

How about Stormy? She’s kicking some butt right now.

 

[GAFDooMsDaY]

Pretty sure I am a Republican and just stated Dems can trot out anyone and beat Trump right now at this point.

Sure is far right.

..cause my comment had anything to do with anything you said in particular and not painfully obvious about the recent topics crapping on dems on the site...

Sigh, it shouldn't be this hard for you guys to comprehend simple things.

 

[It's Jeff]

How about Stormy? She’s kicking some butt right now.

Stormy Daniels as our first female president. From contractually silenced sex worker to highest office in the world. This may be the most American story ever told. I chuckled at first, but this rags to riches narrative is growing on me!

Motion seconded!

 

[Dunki]

the question is what route they will go . If they keep up with the identity politics. It would not even matter which candidate they would lose. If they become reasonable again then the candidate should also not matter much against trump. They would win

 

[Relativ9]

I could see someone like Gavin Newsom. Seems like American's presidential elections is as much about actual politics as me scratching my balls is. Having someone with a magnetic personality who's also easy on the eyes will probably go a long way, if they're also a middle of the road Democrat who has mostly sensible (though some misguided in my opinion) ideas that aren't too out there, that would probably be preferable in the current climate. I don't think Trumb will sit two terms. I don't think as many people will show up to the polls come election day for Trump, people aren't going to be as enthusiastic about "more of the same" as they were about "make America great again". The Democrats still have to bring a good candidate though, cause on the other side a lot of people vote out of fear, and a lot can happen in 2-ish years to make people afraid.

 

[Yoshi]

In what way did Trump move the Republicans to the center?

 

[O.v.e.rlord]

I’m going to say no. After 2016 the Democratic Party has been fractured.

 

[pramod]

In what way did Trump move the Republicans to the center?

They love deficit spending now just like Democrats (do Republicans even care about deficits anymore?)
Anti-free trade (tariffs, killing trade deals, etc)
More pro worker, trying to help local companies and bring more jobs back to America (see above)
Not fighting any more culture wars against LGBT (I know they haven't done much to help LGBT causes either, but at least they're not trying to ban gay marriage like Dubya was)

 

[Corrik]

..cause my comment had anything to do with anything you said in particular and not painfully obvious about the recent topics crapping on dems on the site...

Sigh, it shouldn't be this hard for you guys to comprehend simple things.

Sounding quite hostile in your attempts to paint everyone else as the big bad guys.

Grow up.

 

[Corrik]

Could you post links to sections in those candidates' platforms that call for these things? I'm not aware of any high profile Democrat asking for either banning guns entirely or getting rid of our border protection and vetting of immigrants.

Hillary Clinton did speak to open borders in paid speeches. She quickly backpedaled when it was reported on regarding it and said she wasn't being serious regarding it or so.

 

[Deleted member 12837]

Hillary Clinton did speak to open borders in paid speeches. She quickly backpedaled when it was reported on regarding it and said she wasn't being serious regarding it or so.

Could you link to a video or transcript?

 

[Dunki]

Hillary Clinton did speak to open borders in paid speeches. She quickly backpedaled when it was reported on regarding it and said she wasn't being serious regarding it or so.

No one who wants his country to survive would do such a thing anyway. It is utterly stupid to do so.