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Do you think humans will set foot on another planet in your lifetime?
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Always-honest
Banned
I think so. Mars..
Sure. We'll go to Mars, plant a flag, it will be a major milestone in the history of the human race!
Then we'll leave, never to establish a colony, and probably won't return.
I get the feeling that's why NASA never seriously proposed a manned mars mission yet. It's so obviously just a photo-op with little scientific value that they never bothered. Instead, they'd just sent a rover every few years.
NullPointer
Member
We have a black president, gay marriage, and I'm watching the farce that is the War on Drugs expose its irrelevance due to the mainstreaming of medical and casual use of cannabis.
At this point I'm not counting anything out.
At this point I'm not counting anything out.
perfectchaos007
Member
We have a black president, gay marriage, and I'm watching the farce that is the War on Drugs expose its irrelevance due to the mainstreaming of medical and casual use of cannabis.
At this point I'm not counting anything out.
Lets cancel the war on drugs, and give every future dollar we would have spent on the war on drugs to fund a manned mission to Mars!
Osiris
I permanently banned my 6 year old daughter from using the PS4 for mistakenly sending grief reports as it's too hard to watch or talk to her
Lets cancel the war on drugs, and give every future dollar we would have spent on the war on drugs to fund a manned mission to Mars!
For what purpose?
Absolutely.
I think that we will see commercialized manned space travel within 4 years, manned lunar circumnavigation within 5, and a manned landing on Mars within 15.
To those who are pessimistic, don't follow NASA's lead as much as the private industry and amount of cash flowing into it. New Space shows so many similarities to Silicon Valley circa 1990 that even if it fails to deliver a fraction of what it promises, we will have a much more robust public and private space industry. It is largely being driven by SpaceX's ability to begin driving down previously prohibitive launch costs and help open up the promise of economic return to a multitude of small companies that have legitimately great ideas. Just last week, we heard Tory Bruno, the CEO of ULA, talk extensively about the virtues of reusable rockets, something that would have been unheard of even last year. The European Ariane 6 rocket is being designed to specifically beat SpaceX's current prices. The Russians completely reorganized their aerospace industry so that they can compete with SpaceX on price. The fact that one entrant has been able to so dramatically reshape the cost analysis of the entire launch market is stunning and will truly be game changing. Anyone who is thinking that manned exploration can only be looked at through NASA's lense is dead wrong.
Between SpaceX, Boeing, Planetary Resources, Moon Express, Astrobotic, Masten Aerospace, Blue Origin, Bigelow Aerospace, Made In Space, Orbital Sciences and countless other startups and established companies all investing heavily in commercial American space flight, it is hard to envision a future where substantially more progress is made into space than in the past few decades when the government had an essential monopoly on space activities. In fact, there is more domestic activity on space related development (including both public and private efforts) now than at any other time in our history and although NASA's budget is certainly not what it was during Apollo, nor is it as focused in scope, the importance of the quality and quantity of information that NASA has helped disseminate to the private industry through the Space Act Agreement cannot be overstated.
All of this is happening without even addressing the elephant in the room which is Elon Musk. The cult of personality, sheer wealth, ambition, ability to mobilize the most talented teams of individuals in the market, and singular focus on colonizing Mars that Elon Musk is is enormous. He is John Kennedy, Steve Jobs, and Wernher von Braun all rolled up into one individual. Once SpaceX reveals their plan to colonize Mars in a cost effective manner, it will be hard for NASA to continue peddling their ridiculous $100 billion plan and they will inevitably coalesce with the private industry around an achievable plan to land on Mars. The fact of the matter is SpaceX is working on their Mars hardware RIGHT NOW. They are currently testing the turbopump for their Raptor engine at Stennis RIGHT NOW. They are planning on announcing the general hardware and mission architecture THIS YEAR. Elon Musk just announced their expanded satellite office in Seattle and their plan to generate revenues to privately fund a Martian CITY. Hell, SpaceX's first stage recovery attempts prior to CRS-5 garnered NASA's interest in their supersonic retropropulsive techniques, which NASA had previously thought nearly impossible to achieve on Mars. All of this stems from Elon Musk's persistence on his goal and as SpaceX continues to prove itself, it will be increasingly difficult to disregard their abilities as just the delusions of a tech billionaire.
This is all just in the American industry as well. With China having an robust space program and India beginning to aggressively grow theirs as well, we have the potential of seeing a true Asian space race, which could spill over the Pacific and spur further investment in the US. Russia, despite its economic woes, continues to have sizeable ambitions in space and the ability to carry many of them out. In the current globalized climate, it is hard to imagine increased competition not having a positive effect on global investments in space. Despite much of the disdain in the other thread about the FAA's ruling that private companies would essentially control the land on the moon around their property, further rulings like that from other countries will only further economic investment and an increasing need to expand into space NOW.
It is hard not to be truly optimistic of space when you take in the big picture about aerospace investments and I am confident that we will be back on the Moon and beyond permanently much sooner than most think.
I think that we will see commercialized manned space travel within 4 years, manned lunar circumnavigation within 5, and a manned landing on Mars within 15.
To those who are pessimistic, don't follow NASA's lead as much as the private industry and amount of cash flowing into it. New Space shows so many similarities to Silicon Valley circa 1990 that even if it fails to deliver a fraction of what it promises, we will have a much more robust public and private space industry. It is largely being driven by SpaceX's ability to begin driving down previously prohibitive launch costs and help open up the promise of economic return to a multitude of small companies that have legitimately great ideas. Just last week, we heard Tory Bruno, the CEO of ULA, talk extensively about the virtues of reusable rockets, something that would have been unheard of even last year. The European Ariane 6 rocket is being designed to specifically beat SpaceX's current prices. The Russians completely reorganized their aerospace industry so that they can compete with SpaceX on price. The fact that one entrant has been able to so dramatically reshape the cost analysis of the entire launch market is stunning and will truly be game changing. Anyone who is thinking that manned exploration can only be looked at through NASA's lense is dead wrong.
Between SpaceX, Boeing, Planetary Resources, Moon Express, Astrobotic, Masten Aerospace, Blue Origin, Bigelow Aerospace, Made In Space, Orbital Sciences and countless other startups and established companies all investing heavily in commercial American space flight, it is hard to envision a future where substantially more progress is made into space than in the past few decades when the government had an essential monopoly on space activities. In fact, there is more domestic activity on space related development (including both public and private efforts) now than at any other time in our history and although NASA's budget is certainly not what it was during Apollo, nor is it as focused in scope, the importance of the quality and quantity of information that NASA has helped disseminate to the private industry through the Space Act Agreement cannot be overstated.
All of this is happening without even addressing the elephant in the room which is Elon Musk. The cult of personality, sheer wealth, ambition, ability to mobilize the most talented teams of individuals in the market, and singular focus on colonizing Mars that Elon Musk is is enormous. He is John Kennedy, Steve Jobs, and Wernher von Braun all rolled up into one individual. Once SpaceX reveals their plan to colonize Mars in a cost effective manner, it will be hard for NASA to continue peddling their ridiculous $100 billion plan and they will inevitably coalesce with the private industry around an achievable plan to land on Mars. The fact of the matter is SpaceX is working on their Mars hardware RIGHT NOW. They are currently testing the turbopump for their Raptor engine at Stennis RIGHT NOW. They are planning on announcing the general hardware and mission architecture THIS YEAR. Elon Musk just announced their expanded satellite office in Seattle and their plan to generate revenues to privately fund a Martian CITY. Hell, SpaceX's first stage recovery attempts prior to CRS-5 garnered NASA's interest in their supersonic retropropulsive techniques, which NASA had previously thought nearly impossible to achieve on Mars. All of this stems from Elon Musk's persistence on his goal and as SpaceX continues to prove itself, it will be increasingly difficult to disregard their abilities as just the delusions of a tech billionaire.
This is all just in the American industry as well. With China having an robust space program and India beginning to aggressively grow theirs as well, we have the potential of seeing a true Asian space race, which could spill over the Pacific and spur further investment in the US. Russia, despite its economic woes, continues to have sizeable ambitions in space and the ability to carry many of them out. In the current globalized climate, it is hard to imagine increased competition not having a positive effect on global investments in space. Despite much of the disdain in the other thread about the FAA's ruling that private companies would essentially control the land on the moon around their property, further rulings like that from other countries will only further economic investment and an increasing need to expand into space NOW.
It is hard not to be truly optimistic of space when you take in the big picture about aerospace investments and I am confident that we will be back on the Moon and beyond permanently much sooner than most think.
perfectchaos007
Member
For what purpose?
Why cancel the war on drugs? Because it's just set up to fill the for-profit prisons and overall hasn't stopped drug traffickers from smuggling. The in home raids often cause tons of damage to innocent civilians homes, and they often don't repay for damages. The war on drugs is a lost cause, so stop throwing money at it.
ScepticMatt
Member
There are a multitude of technical issues still left to be figured out. There are human issues like vision and bone loss in zero-g, space habitats, mars entry, descent and landing, mars habitats, in situ resource utilisation, power generation, communications networks, etc etc. There are no show stoppers yet, but they will take a long time and more importantly cost many billions of dollars to solve.
Right now, I don't see it happening with NASA's system. The space launch system (SLS) is outrageously overpriced government pork, and Orion is nothing more than a Earth-to-orbit shuttle that can be done much cheaper with commercial crew capsules.
I think currently SpaceX has the most sophisticated plans. If Musk can get enough funds for his Mars Colonial Transport system - with his "new internet" plan or otherwise - I could see it happening in a few decades. A big "if".
Right now, I don't see it happening with NASA's system. The space launch system (SLS) is outrageously overpriced government pork, and Orion is nothing more than a Earth-to-orbit shuttle that can be done much cheaper with commercial crew capsules.
I think currently SpaceX has the most sophisticated plans. If Musk can get enough funds for his Mars Colonial Transport system - with his "new internet" plan or otherwise - I could see it happening in a few decades. A big "if".
TangoAlphaLima
Member
But NASA is way behind. The agency still hasn't selected a specific asteroid . . . for the mission.
Did they try Zillow?
Absolutely.
I think that we will see commercialized manned space travel within 4 years, manned lunar circumnavigation within 5, and a manned landing on Mars within 15.
To those who are pessimistic, don't follow NASA's lead as much as the private industry and amount of cash flowing into it. New Space shows so many similarities to Silicon Valley circa 1990 that even if it fails to deliver a fraction of what it promises, we will have a much more robust public and private space industry. It is largely being driven by SpaceX's ability to begin driving down previously prohibitive launch costs and help open up the promise of economic return to a multitude of small companies that have legitimately great ideas. Just last week, we heard Tory Bruno, the CEO of ULA, talk extensively about the virtues of reusable rockets, something that would have been unheard of even last year. The European Ariane 6 rocket is being designed to specifically beat SpaceX's current prices. The Russians completely reorganized their aerospace industry so that they can compete with SpaceX on price. The fact that one entrant has been able to so dramatically reshape the cost analysis of the entire launch market is stunning and will truly be game changing. Anyone who is thinking that manned exploration can only be looked at through NASA's lense is dead wrong.
Between SpaceX, Boeing, Planetary Resources, Moon Express, Astrobotic, Masten Aerospace, Blue Origin, Bigelow Aerospace, Made In Space, Orbital Sciences and countless other startups and established companies all investing heavily in commercial American space flight, it is hard to envision a future where substantially more progress is made into space than in the past few decades when the government had an essential monopoly on space activities. In fact, there is more domestic activity on space related development (including both public and private efforts) now than at any other time in our history and although NASA's budget is certainly not what it was during Apollo, nor is it as focused in scope, the importance of the quality and quantity of information that NASA has helped disseminate to the private industry through the Space Act Agreement cannot be overstated.
All of this is happening without even addressing the elephant in the room which is Elon Musk. The cult of personality, sheer wealth, ambition, ability to mobilize the most talented teams of individuals in the market, and singular focus on colonizing Mars that Elon Musk is is enormous. He is John Kennedy, Steve Jobs, and Wernher von Braun all rolled up into one individual. Once SpaceX reveals their plan to colonize Mars in a cost effective manner, it will be hard for NASA to continue peddling their ridiculous $100 billion plan and they will inevitably coalesce with the private industry around an achievable plan to land on Mars. The fact of the matter is SpaceX is working on their Mars hardware RIGHT NOW. They are currently testing the turbopump for their Raptor engine at Stennis RIGHT NOW. They are planning on announcing the general hardware and mission architecture THIS YEAR. Elon Musk just announced their expanded satellite office in Seattle and their plan to generate revenues to privately fund a Martian CITY. Hell, SpaceX's first stage recovery attempts prior to CRS-5 garnered NASA's interest in their supersonic retropropulsive techniques, which NASA had previously thought nearly impossible to achieve on Mars. All of this stems from Elon Musk's persistence on his goal and as SpaceX continues to prove itself, it will be increasingly difficult to disregard their abilities as just the delusions of a tech billionaire.
This is all just in the American industry as well. With China having an robust space program and India beginning to aggressively grow theirs as well, we have the potential of seeing a true Asian space race, which could spill over the Pacific and spur further investment in the US. Russia, despite its economic woes, continues to have sizeable ambitions in space and the ability to carry many of them out. In the current globalized climate, it is hard to imagine increased competition not having a positive effect on global investments in space. Despite much of the disdain in the other thread about the FAA's ruling that private companies would essentially control the land on the moon around their property, further rulings like that from other countries will only further economic investment and an increasing need to expand into space NOW.
It is hard not to be truly optimistic of space when you take in the big picture about aerospace investments and I am confident that we will be back on the Moon and beyond permanently much sooner than most think.
This is a great post. All exciting sounding stuff. The SpaceX mission to Mars in particular has me intrigued. Anywhere I can go to read more on that?
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