Gordon Brown is to hold a council of war with his closest allies this weekend at which he is expected to make a final examination of the polling data before deciding whether to call an autumn general election. The prime minister's election aides were last night gearing up for him to give the go-ahead for a snap poll after a successful week in Bournemouth that saw a definite shift in mood at the top of the party.
By Sunday, Mr Brown is expected to have received all the polling he needs, including from a string of marginal seats, as well as focus group work. He will also be able to look at a number of council byelection results. A presentation will be given that will outline the pros and cons of going to the polls so soon into his premiership.
The prime minister is understood to be reluctant to make an immediate formal announcement on Sunday, the first day of the Conservative conference, since it might be seen as too shameless a bid to undercut the Tories in what anyway may prove to be a difficult conference for David Cameron. But Mr Brown is looking for his own mandate, and an opportunity to increase Labour's current overall majority, which was cut to 64 in 2005.
Senior Labour figures stressed that he was not dithering, but had instead told aides he would not make a final decision until he had seen all the relevant data.
The most advantageous date for Mr Brown to call the poll and ask the Queen to dissolve parliament is Tuesday October 9, since this would give him enough time to announce the handover of Basra province in Iraq to the Iraqis on October 8, the day MPs return from the summer recess. Polling day could then be November 1.
That might also leave enough time for the chancellor, Alistair Darling, to squeeze in the long-planned three-year spending review and pre-budget report.
If Mr Brown decides to go for an even earlier election on October 25, he would have to declare his intentions by Tuesday - the day before Mr Cameron's make-or-break speech at the Conservative conference in Blackpool.
With their leader facing an uncomfortable week, Labour sources are not expecting any high-profile defections before the Conservative conference, despite rumours. Two Tory MPs often cited as possible defectors - John Bercow and Patrick Mercer - have announced that they will not be attending the conference.
A crucial factor against opting for an October 25 poll is that it falls in the middle of half-term week, something that might depress the turnout.
Cabinet ministers and MPs in marginal seats who started the week in Bournemouth sceptical of an autumn poll have reversed their position in the face of the self-confident mood in the party. Labour is especially confident about key marginals in the north-west.
Its internal polling was showing a five-point lead for Labour at the beginning of the week, but one aide said Mr Brown was having trouble believing the data.
Party sources confirmed yesterday that some lobbyists and PR staff were being privately asked to be ready to start work as early as Monday. However, they downplayed the significance of any forthcoming appointments, insisting they were not proof that an election was imminent.
Closing the conference the deputy leader, Harriet Harman, hailed the Labour party on show in Bournemouth as "more confident, more united and more determined than ever before".
She added fuel to expectations of an early election by telling delegates: "We will be organised. We will be mobilised. We will be determined. We are confident of our record and vision for the future, so proud of our leader. If we do what is right, when the time comes and we ask people for their vote, people will say: 'Yes, I want our government to be Labour'."
The Conservatives say they are ready to fight an election. The party revealed this week it has a £10m war chest, a draft manifesto and candidates selected in its top 200 target seats. The shadow chancellor, George Osborne, told today's Telegraph that the Tories were prepared to ditch plans for controversial "green" taxes ahead of a possible snap general election, indicating that they were ready to rethink proposals to penalise people parking at supermarkets or taking more than one short-haul flight a year. http://politics.guardian.co.uk/labour/story/0,,2179028,00.html
By Sunday, Mr Brown is expected to have received all the polling he needs, including from a string of marginal seats, as well as focus group work. He will also be able to look at a number of council byelection results. A presentation will be given that will outline the pros and cons of going to the polls so soon into his premiership.
The prime minister is understood to be reluctant to make an immediate formal announcement on Sunday, the first day of the Conservative conference, since it might be seen as too shameless a bid to undercut the Tories in what anyway may prove to be a difficult conference for David Cameron. But Mr Brown is looking for his own mandate, and an opportunity to increase Labour's current overall majority, which was cut to 64 in 2005.
Senior Labour figures stressed that he was not dithering, but had instead told aides he would not make a final decision until he had seen all the relevant data.
The most advantageous date for Mr Brown to call the poll and ask the Queen to dissolve parliament is Tuesday October 9, since this would give him enough time to announce the handover of Basra province in Iraq to the Iraqis on October 8, the day MPs return from the summer recess. Polling day could then be November 1.
That might also leave enough time for the chancellor, Alistair Darling, to squeeze in the long-planned three-year spending review and pre-budget report.
If Mr Brown decides to go for an even earlier election on October 25, he would have to declare his intentions by Tuesday - the day before Mr Cameron's make-or-break speech at the Conservative conference in Blackpool.
With their leader facing an uncomfortable week, Labour sources are not expecting any high-profile defections before the Conservative conference, despite rumours. Two Tory MPs often cited as possible defectors - John Bercow and Patrick Mercer - have announced that they will not be attending the conference.
A crucial factor against opting for an October 25 poll is that it falls in the middle of half-term week, something that might depress the turnout.
Cabinet ministers and MPs in marginal seats who started the week in Bournemouth sceptical of an autumn poll have reversed their position in the face of the self-confident mood in the party. Labour is especially confident about key marginals in the north-west.
Its internal polling was showing a five-point lead for Labour at the beginning of the week, but one aide said Mr Brown was having trouble believing the data.
Party sources confirmed yesterday that some lobbyists and PR staff were being privately asked to be ready to start work as early as Monday. However, they downplayed the significance of any forthcoming appointments, insisting they were not proof that an election was imminent.
Closing the conference the deputy leader, Harriet Harman, hailed the Labour party on show in Bournemouth as "more confident, more united and more determined than ever before".
She added fuel to expectations of an early election by telling delegates: "We will be organised. We will be mobilised. We will be determined. We are confident of our record and vision for the future, so proud of our leader. If we do what is right, when the time comes and we ask people for their vote, people will say: 'Yes, I want our government to be Labour'."
The Conservatives say they are ready to fight an election. The party revealed this week it has a £10m war chest, a draft manifesto and candidates selected in its top 200 target seats. The shadow chancellor, George Osborne, told today's Telegraph that the Tories were prepared to ditch plans for controversial "green" taxes ahead of a possible snap general election, indicating that they were ready to rethink proposals to penalise people parking at supermarkets or taking more than one short-haul flight a year. http://politics.guardian.co.uk/labour/story/0,,2179028,00.html