FantasticMrFoxdie
Mumber
Its nice to dream Elon
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Elon Musk to announce SpaceX's Mars colonization plans at IAC on Tuesday (Sept. 27)
- Thread starter HellBlazer
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All liquid fueled rockets need some way to pressurize the fuel system, so this doesn't sound like anything to do with the engine. Even if it did, the other rockets also have new engines, so the newness of the Merlin engines can't be an excuse.
I think that depends a lot on how he's achieving those profits. Something I've read about SpaceX recently that's pretty troubling is how few people are actually being used full time for crewed spaceflight missions that NASA is funding: "Another contributing factor to SpaceXs commercial crew launch date slippages is that it has only a few, perhaps little more than two or three dozen, SpaceX employees working full-time on commercial crew; most of the others are multi-tasked to Cargo Resupply, Red Dragon, and commercial satellite services."
http://www.americaspace.com/?p=95322
So it sounds like he's multi-tasking NASA's missions with all of his others he's pursuing, leaving only a very small team dedicated full-time to accomplish what NASA is paying for. I guess you have to ask yourself if this is a valid way of fulfilling that contract.
He has not leapfrogged that many competitors in cost. Proton, Soyuz are arguably still more cost effective rockets. There's also a number of small-sat launchers that are much cheaper as well (Vega, PSLV, etc.). It's only really ULA, which was a monopoly on government launches until recently, that charged exorbitant prices. He deserves credit for breaking ULA's monopoly, but that doesn't means he's qualified to send people to Mars.
Agreed for the most part. I will add that the ITS rocket is the N1 on steroids, and has no dedicated launch escape system. Just because NASA doesn't have a well thought out plan to Mars, doesn't automatically mean SpaceX has a better one. If anything, SpaceX's plan is worse IMO.
The fuel pressurization system doesn't need to be a hard cryogen like helium though, or anything that is likely to cause a catastrophic failure in the event of a leak.
I don't know about the Proton and the Soyuz, but I know the Falcon 9 is substantially cheaper than the equivalent Chinese Long March last I heard. I wouldn't have thought that the Russians would be cheaper than the Chinese, least not for anybody but NASA.
Just because the ITS uses many rocket engines doesn't make it anything like the N1. We have advances substantially past 1960s Soviet computer technology, it should be feasible to devise a better control system for a many-engined launch vehicle these days. Launch escape systems were going to have to go away eventually, and it becomes a bit impractical when dealing with spacecraft this large. Lack of a launch escape system didn't hurt the space shuttle, and the shuttle tragedies would not have been avoided by a launch escape system.
It makes sense to have such a system when you are dealing with Apollo and Soyuz size vehicles, but for any realistic Mars vehicle(even a barebones Mars Direct style 2 or 3 man crewed vehicle) it seems like it would be impractical.
I guess since this vehicle requires in space refueling, if you were being silly you could shuttle the crew up in small capsules and rendezvous with the ITS during refueling, seems horrendously inefficient, at that point you may as well turn the ITS into a Mars cycler and just keep it up in space. Problem is there is currently no way to create artificial gravity in the mission architecture.
Or we could just make the thing safe enough to not need the thing in the first place, which if you are going to try to get a million people to go to Mars, you are going to have to do that anyway.
Rentahamster
Rodent Whores
I wish we had already done this and are even more prepared to go to Mars now
Napoleonthechimp
Member
There is a difference between the average fantasist and Elon Musk. One side sits around and dreams about what could be, the other turns their belief into reality.
To all of those shitting on the presentation, I wish you were around on NASASpaceflight.com back when Elon announced that they were going to try and work on reusability for their rockets. It was shat on to SUCH a large degree in many of the same ways (it's nice to dream Elon, the re-entry forces on the first stage are going to tear it to pieces, the landing legs will take up too much space and they'll weigh too much, SpaceX can't afford a testing regime like this, landing on a barge is impossible!) and to a certain extent, still is. And yet here we are, 5 years later with SpaceX sitting on 6 landed first stages.
This is obviously orders of magnitude more challenging and a lot of it (huge glass window, fan solar deployment, landing on the mount at the launch site) makes me skeptical, but SpaceX has some of the top talent in the aerospace industry and they all know their stuff. People need to remember that the Raptor has been in development for the past 5 years publically and that component testing has been happening at Stennis since 2014. Metal (or in this case carbon fiber) has been cut. Not only that, but this whole presentation was basically the biggest recruiting tool imaginable. If you polled any aerospace engineering class where their dream job is, most would say SpaceX and that was before yesterday's presentation. Their ambition is one of their strongest assets because of how many people it reaches and how strongly it motivates employees to do the impossible.
It's amazing to me that we are living in a day and age where two multibillionaires (Musk and Bezos) both own private rocket companies that are currently working on HLV and SHLV SPECIFICALLY designed to make life multiplanitary. Blue Origin's New Armstrong rocket was briefly discussed at the IAC yesterday as well and they mentioned that it is also being designed to go to the moon and Mars. The redundancy of the two companies, wholly outside the complete control of Congressional funding, makes the likelihood of success that much greater.
This is obviously orders of magnitude more challenging and a lot of it (huge glass window, fan solar deployment, landing on the mount at the launch site) makes me skeptical, but SpaceX has some of the top talent in the aerospace industry and they all know their stuff. People need to remember that the Raptor has been in development for the past 5 years publically and that component testing has been happening at Stennis since 2014. Metal (or in this case carbon fiber) has been cut. Not only that, but this whole presentation was basically the biggest recruiting tool imaginable. If you polled any aerospace engineering class where their dream job is, most would say SpaceX and that was before yesterday's presentation. Their ambition is one of their strongest assets because of how many people it reaches and how strongly it motivates employees to do the impossible.
It's amazing to me that we are living in a day and age where two multibillionaires (Musk and Bezos) both own private rocket companies that are currently working on HLV and SHLV SPECIFICALLY designed to make life multiplanitary. Blue Origin's New Armstrong rocket was briefly discussed at the IAC yesterday as well and they mentioned that it is also being designed to go to the moon and Mars. The redundancy of the two companies, wholly outside the complete control of Congressional funding, makes the likelihood of success that much greater.
Many rockets use a helium based pressurization systems, including Ariane 5 and the Atlas V. SpaceX appears to be only one that is having this kind of problem.
Not by much. The Long March 3 is about $70 million compared to the Falcon 9's $62 million. Curiously enough, the Long March 3 is the more reliable of the two.
Considering that SpaceX just lost a rocket this month, that's a bold, and possibly impossible claim. If they haven't solved the safety and reliability problem, this rocket easily turns into a death trap without a launch escape system. The space shuttle was a bad design without it. I'm pretty sure the Challenger disaster would have been avoided. One of the many reasons why they cancelled it and returned to a traditional capsule design.
Many other bloggers and forum-goers that I've seen, much more knowledgeable than me, have derided this rocket in a number of ways. We're just hitting on one point in particular (the safety aspect).
Yeah, people can argue that it is impossible until they are blue in the face. Meanwhile SpaceX moves forwards. Unless something is physically impossible, what is the argument really? SpaceX will do anything in their power to try and reach their goals.
Let's also not forget that they are getting a lot of assistance from NASA in the form of knowledge and data and even sometimes labor. They have almost daily communication with SpaceX on a technical level. Quarterly they talk about the partnership to keep things going smoothly. They also gauge SpaceX's progress and make sure they are on track with their milestones. This is for the Red Dragon mission which is obviously a very important step in the plan to send humans to Mars.
The point is SpaceX is not doing this alone. There is no reason to think SpaceX won't get a similar type of assistance for manned missions. Speaking of which, earlier this year NASA ordered a second SpaceX crew mission based on the fact that SpaceX is meeting the appropriate internal milestones.
NASA, who are working very closely with SpaceX, are putting a lot of trust in them. Hopefully the manned missions are a success. I believe the first of these will take place at the end of 2017.
Yes, it is pretty exciting. Dr. Robert Zubrin also said some things related to this subject in a video posted earlier. He suggests that NASA needs to please the people in charge of funding with their mission plans in order to get proper funding, and that this often causes the plans to be bloated with unnecessary steps and development of unnecessary hardware. Also they could be forced to change their mission at any time. A private company can be more focused and certainly more lean.
blu
Wants the largest console games publisher to avoid Nintendo's platforms.
While pre-launch accidents are indeed rare, your claim it's a solved engineering problem is invalid.
And generally, there are no 'solved engineering problems' unless everybody around the globe is using the exact same materials, systems and procedures, for eternity. And since that's not the case (and will likely never be) the claim something is a solved engineering problem is as nonsensical as they come.
Columbia, no. But Challenger, yes. The crew survived the initial disintegration, and were conscious for some time afterwards. If the crew cabin was designed for recovery with parachutes, they'd have been fine.
Kill Your Masters
Member
In this case I don't really care, it's not like his speech has to be a magnificent sales pitch, so people might feel better buying a phone without a headphone jack.
PastorOfMuppets
Banned
So you're offered a spot on this spaceship. Who says no?
The first one?? Fuck that!!
Maybe the third or fourth time we have that launch window...
If this is ever actually built it'll really reveal Orion for the pork it seems to be. This could really allow NASA to do whatever manned missions they like without worrying about developing launch hardware though
I give Musk a 0% chance of meeting those timescales though, he does like to over-estimate. It'd be nice to see the Falcon Heavy fly next year, then they might actually get a Red Dragon off in 2018
I'd probably decline because I know there's no way in hell my wife would go and it's a one way trip. Were I unattached I'd be tempted though, its a unique opportunity
I give Musk a 0% chance of meeting those timescales though, he does like to over-estimate. It'd be nice to see the Falcon Heavy fly next year, then they might actually get a Red Dragon off in 2018
I'd probably decline because I know there's no way in hell my wife would go and it's a one way trip. Were I unattached I'd be tempted though, its a unique opportunity
It's not a 1 way trip though!
I doubt they'd send a random Sysadmin a scientific mission, and the only way I could afford the pricetag is by selling my house, so it would be a "move to mars" type deal for me!
From what I understand so far is that you can jump on the return flight for free in the beginning, would be insane if they asked another 500k for that seeing as the ship is going back to earth anyway...
A Fish Aficionado
I am going to make it through this year if it kills me
Yes. I totally would. Given I pass the phsucj exams that totally would be necessary.
Kill Your Masters
Member
If I'm single/unattached and have the cash when the time comes, I'd probably go.
Can't wait until Mars is the first Technocratic country started by corporations, where people vote on which Google AI iteration they want to be president, the main difference being that the conservative AI will give you 978 energon credits, and the liberal will give you 977 energon credits, the extra credit going towards increased Tetrahydrocannabinol and Doritos(TM) rationing. Oh, also each AI will reside inside of a zord.
PastorOfMuppets
Banned
Even if you were broke, you could write a daily journal of the events and training and sell it as a book and make bank off that.
I have kids now so that's a no. If I didn't, who knows. Probably still no. I reckon the first waves will probably (80% chance) meet their demise, so you really have to have a this life's pointless anyway better make my mark mindset.
I mean, it's more energon credits than a human government would give you!
What's the conversion rate of energon credits to quatloos?
Ehh, I seriously doubt that first flights have 80% chance to die. I'm sure that they will send multiple unmanned flights just to send cargo and test all systems before the manned flight
nekkid
It doesn't matter who we are, what matters is our plan.
While true, I'm not sure it would be fun. You'd get over the spectacle and awe and achievement fairly quickly, and all you'd have left would be living in a cramped shed in a barren wasteland for years, if not the rest of your life.
What makes you say someone would have to live there for years or the rest of their life? Is it because you're simply spectacularly uninformed or do you some valid explanation?
Lol, seriously.
Falcon Heavy was supposed to debut in 2013, and now it is tentatively scheduled for Q1 2017. That's the thing about SpaceX though. Nothing is vaporware. Instead, it is constantly being iterated on and further developed. Since 2013, they've rolled out the full thrust F9 with deep cryo lox and have refined the landing of the first stage like crazy. I expect something similar with the ITS. It'll be late and it probably will evolve from this video, but it'll materialize and be even more amazing than we've initially seen.
CyclopsRock
Member
I think part of the problem is that they have eaten their own lunch. The F9 is now doing things - re: payload to orbit - that it was never originally planned to do, due to iterative inprovements. I don't think the hold ups with the FH are necessarily technical but rather them trying to work out what place it has in the market, if at all. The more and more satellites and cargos that the F9 can put into orbit, the less there are left for an FH. Perhaps they're having to improve it beyond what they'd originally planned to make it worth while but *then* you start getting into BFR territory! Well, not really, but that's the problem they have.
Obliterator
Member
There is no way in hell I would step foot on that thing.
Maybe once there was a huge thriving colony on Mars and it's been proven safe to travel to and from Mars I'd head over for a month vacation
RandomExpletive
Member
Assuming I had the means, I'd PROBABLY be on the 2nd flight over, but you could convince me to take the first flight.
I should start getting in shape and training for the inevitable move to mars!
I should start getting in shape and training for the inevitable move to mars!
PdotMichael
Banned
Who don't want to live on a planet which tris to kill you with everything it does while everything you can do is working and sleeping?
HellBlazer
Member
Fairly accurate.
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