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EU and Mexico agree to accelerate talks for new, reformed free trade agreement

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Syncytia

Member
Trump won't leave even if he loses the next election.

If he tries and the republicans don't stand up against that we will have the biggest constitutional crisis possible and violent rebellion on our hands.

We're already having a bit of a constitutional crisis and most people are just sticking their heads in the sand because muslims are bad hombres.
 

Tugatrix

Member
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EU finally had the shake up it needed, now let's end austerity
 

Drek

Member
I always wonder how the EU thinks it can create jobs through free trade agreements with low income countries. It didn't work out for the US with jobs going across the border because it made sense for US companies to set up factories in Mexico because of the lower wages and reduced import duties.

You clearly do not understand how free trade agreements affect the job market.

FYI the majority of economists view the U.S. free trade agreements as net neutral on job creation and net positive on economic impact. Low skill labor may be cheaper in Mexico than the U.S. but skilled labor and capable professionals surely are not, and opening a trade deal results in substantial opportunities to sell those high skill services in a new marketplace.

Of course there will be a trade deficit, but that is only sensible any time you approach a remotely egalitarian partnership with someone with substantially less financial resources. That is in reality a pointless concern as the dynamic reverses as you move low labor countries up the economic ladder, finding the point where their low skill labor is no longer the most cost effective option but their economy and society are large enough to need the skilled labor and professional services on the last push to what is generally referred to as "first world" status. Then it's simply a far broader market for companies to work within, which is an inarguable good.

The only negative of free trade agreements stem from displacing low skill labor in the short term while in the long term it is nothing but a net positive for both parties. Even in the short term it offers substantial quality of life advantages for the wealthier country (lower cost goods and produce for example in the U.S./Mexico case) while opening more employment opportunities for people just entering the jobs market with higher value skills.

Isolationism was a failed policy a century ago. It isn't going to suddenly work now as we've become a more integrated society globally. The only real result will be those resisting falling behind those who embrace it, as happens with all major change events.
 

Iksenpets

Banned
A single tear rolls down my cheek as I watch all my avocados and mangos and sweet, sweet Mexican berries drift slowly across the Atlantic to their new home. I tell myself I'm not sad, really I'm happy that at least someone will get to eat them, even if it can't be me...
 

Syncytia

Member
A single tear rolls down my cheek as I watch all my avocados and mangos and sweet, sweet Mexican berries drift slowly across the Atlantic to their new home. I tell myself I'm not sad, really I'm happy that at least someone will get to eat them, even if it can't be me...

But it will help avocado farmers in California!
And your avocados will be $10 each
 

Funky Papa

FUNK-Y-PPA-4
You know, I kinda wonder what impact this might have on Spain, economically.

For obvious reasons, Spain and Mexico share a common tongue, even if in different dialects. And with the exit of Britain from the EU, Spain (and Portugal) would be left as an obvious port of call for Mexican goods entering the continent, and vice versa.
Spanish corporations will probably benefit. Spain is already Mexico's fourth export market after the USA, Canada and China and there's significant Spanish investment in Mexico. My uneducated guess is that the agricultural sector may not be so up for it since maize and banana exports may be damaging for local producers, but France and Italy probably feel the same there.

Doubt that. They will use whatever port is cheapest for them to transport to and from, really.
While this is true, Spain is already the to-go partner of the EU for dealing with Latin America and is positioning itself as a major transatlantic hub through its future port to railway transportation network (corredor central, corredor atlántico and corredor mediterráneo).

Do you guys really want taco trucks on every street corner?... Of course!
You laugh, but having traveled to the States a bunch of times, the quality of our "Mexican" restaurants makes me yearn for some trucks...

Don't forget tequila. You need tequila to be able to watch Eurovision.
More jokes about the French would be nice, too.

on the one hand i like the eu moving in on being the leader of the free world

on the other, the ttp :/
This would probably work better for the EU than the TTIP since it would be the clearly dominant partner during the negotiations. But again, I'm no economist. Hell, I can barely do my taxes.
 
The EU and Mexico gonna eat for the next four years. It may not be Americans, but at least Trump will be able to say he made SOMEONE richer by the end of his term.
 

Trickster

Member
Can't help but imagine this in my head as Mexico sitting in a corner crying because America has gone crazy and is threating it. Only for EU to come sweeping in and ride off in the sunset together with Mexico, while Trump is left watching people on SNL doing a skit about his negotiating skills
 

Shadybiz

Member
Good; I hope it works out well for both of them. Let's see if our master negotiator and chief has anything intelligent to say about it (lol).
 

Neo C.

Member
If I remember correctly, the EU has like 60 free trade agreement in the making. Normally it takes years to get some progress, but thanks to Trumps destructive power, things can be done more within a year now what normally could cost a decade in the making.
 
If I remember correctly, the EU has like 60 free trade agreement in the making. Normally it takes years to get some progress, but thanks to Trumps destructive power, things can be done more within a year now what normally could cost a decade in the making.

To be fair, everyone also expects to take a heavy loss on trade with the US, which is a huge difference to copy with, and combined with a loss of NATO would strangle EU military logistics by resource attrition.
It's probably that we're accepting a loss here to maintain strategic goals, not so much using an opportunity.
 
Doubt that. They will use whatever port is cheapest for them to transport to and from, really.

Well, one of the factors I considered in making that statement - though admittedly I'm not too well versed on the specific dynamics and regulations of shipping to the EU - is distance, owing to the obvious matter of fuel consumption. The UK's latitude normally makes it closer on a globe to anything in the northern hemisphere than it appears on a map, so with its departure, Spain looks that little bit nicer, to save some cash.
 

Hari Seldon

Member
Rules of origin still apply and would basically nullify car exports, unless I'm missing something.

Well I would imagine that Germany is going to shift a lot of manufacturing to Mexico if a free trade deal goes through. VW and BMW already manufacture some cars there. They might ramp up a lot more if Mexico is going to lose all of the US cars that are made there and have those factories sitting around.
 
Mexican here, I'm not too sure about this, guys. The whole "TTIP"-like trade deal has me worried, but if all the bad copyright and suing governments parts is out, I'm all for it.
 

marc^o^

Nintendo's Pro Bono PR Firm
The savage anti Trump sentiment in other countries will definitely have a negative impact on US economy. I'm at a Dassault System convention with hundreds of people from Europe and so many discussions are about how Trump, and how we don't want to go back to USA, nor deal with this administration for business.
 

Hari Seldon

Member
You clearly do not understand how free trade agreements affect the job market.

FYI the majority of economists view the U.S. free trade agreements as net neutral on job creation and net positive on economic impact. Low skill labor may be cheaper in Mexico than the U.S. but skilled labor and capable professionals surely are not, and opening a trade deal results in substantial opportunities to sell those high skill services in a new marketplace.

Of course there will be a trade deficit, but that is only sensible any time you approach a remotely egalitarian partnership with someone with substantially less financial resources. That is in reality a pointless concern as the dynamic reverses as you move low labor countries up the economic ladder, finding the point where their low skill labor is no longer the most cost effective option but their economy and society are large enough to need the skilled labor and professional services on the last push to what is generally referred to as "first world" status. Then it's simply a far broader market for companies to work within, which is an inarguable good.

The only negative of free trade agreements stem from displacing low skill labor in the short term while in the long term it is nothing but a net positive for both parties. Even in the short term it offers substantial quality of life advantages for the wealthier country (lower cost goods and produce for example in the U.S./Mexico case) while opening more employment opportunities for people just entering the jobs market with higher value skills.

Isolationism was a failed policy a century ago. It isn't going to suddenly work now as we've become a more integrated society globally. The only real result will be those resisting falling behind those who embrace it, as happens with all major change events.

This is the textbook failed economic theory that has directly lead to the rise of Trump and other right wingers world wide. You cannot get rid of low skilled jobs and replace them with nothing. Not in a democracy when those low skilled people are going to say "fuck off" and vote anyone who wants to do this out. Sure maybe this theory is great if the regime is totalitarian and the people affected by it have absolutely no say.
 

Neo C.

Member
To be fair, everyone also expects to take a heavy loss on trade with the US, which is a huge difference to copy with, and combined with a loss of NATO would strangle EU military logistics by resource attrition.
It's probably that we're accepting a loss here to maintain strategic goals, not so much using an opportunity.

The good thing is: Once those agreements are finalized, accepted and done, they can last for a few decades, while the Trump presidency is (hopefully) more time limited. I'm worried about the short term consequences but remain very optimistic about the long term perspective.
 

Funky Papa

FUNK-Y-PPA-4
Well I would imagine that Germany is going to shift a lot of manufacturing to Mexico if a free trade deal goes through. VW and BMW already manufacture some cars there. They might ramp up a lot more if Mexico is going to lose all of the US cars that are made there and have those factories sitting around.

German car makers are funny in the sense that they are very wary of closing German factories and German unions would rain fire on them if they tried. Outsourcing to Mexico is probably out of the question. Also, shipping cars from Mexico to America is trivial, but this wouldn't be the case for a Mexico-EU deal.

There may be some extra imports (the current European Jetta is built in Mexico, IIRC), but I don't expect any drastic changes there.
 

Hari Seldon

Member
German car makers are funny in the sense that they are very wary of closing German factories and German unions would rain fire on them if they tried. Outsourcing to Mexico is probably out of the question. Also, shipping cars from Mexico to America is trivial, but this wouldn't be the case for a Mexico-EU deal.

There may be some extra imports (the current European Jetta is built in Mexico, IIRC), but I don't expect any drastic changes there.

So what you are saying is that the EU is going to sign a trade deal with Mexico but not actually shift any manufacturing around? Isn't that exactly what Trump wants as well?

Manufacturing BMWs and VWs in Mexico that are to be sold in the US would be a ton cheaper than manufacturing them in Germany to be sold in the US.
 
So what you are saying is that the EU is going to sign a trade deal with Mexico but not actually shift any manufacturing around? Isn't that exactly what Trump wants as well?

Manufacturing BMWs and VWs in Mexico that are to be sold in the US would be a ton cheaper than manufacturing them in Germany to be sold in the US.

Afaik this isn't happening in large quantities anyway.
 

Eila

Member
Didn't Mexico - EU already have a FTA? Soon after NAFTA Mexico went on a neoliberal spree for the next decade and it included an agreement with the EU..
 

Funky Papa

FUNK-Y-PPA-4
So what you are saying is that the EU is going to sign a trade deal with Mexico but not actually shift any manufacturing around? Isn't that exactly what Trump wants as well?

Manufacturing BMWs and VWs in Mexico that are to be sold in the US would be a ton cheaper than manufacturing them in Germany to be sold in the US.

There will be some manufacturing shifts, but I don't expect cars to be a huge part due to political reasons. The EU is also becoming more wary of the risks that come with deindustrialisation due to the increased prominence of populist movements fed by it.

That said, Mexico also exports to Europe other industrial goods such as machinery, tractors and electronics that would benefit from this deal. Some of those products are currently being made in Europe and could lead to some issues, but many other are not.

Either way, Europe has the upper hand in these negotiations since it's the larger partner and doesn't need a new trade deal with Mexico as much as Mexico needs it.

@bolded: Most German cars sold in America (VW, Mercedes-Benz and BMW) are already being built in Mexico and America (usually with a huge input of Mexican parts). That's been the case a good while. As a matter of fact, America exports cars to Europe, such as BMW's range of SUVs (Spartanburg factory).
 
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