I think realistically it was nerves that prevented Punk from doing his best. but even Punk at his best would not have beaten Tokido. He had answers to punk that nobody has has all year.
How do you stop karin's st. mk? It's a thing most characters cant even get a handle on. Akuma's st. mk can. Punk stopped using it almost entirely as the sets went on.
How do you take advantage of Karin's weak AAs? Her jab is still not bad and she can be tricky if she moves around. Demon flip can cover screen space and attack in ways Karin struggles to handle properly.
How do you handle the rest of her midrange? st. hp, cr. hp, these are great tools to keep the rest of her buttons honest.
How do you close out? Tokido has his fireballs in v-trigger to force sideswitch mixups and pressure. If you recall, Momochi lost to Punk in neutral continuously at SXSW I think it was but landed literally 99% of all sideswitch mixups. It feels like a thing.
As soon as I saw how tokido could make punk scared to st. mk I knew this was gonna be a problem. It felt like a year's worth of searching for answers to Punk being put together into one package.