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[Solid]

Booooring evening so what the hell...

For the week from the 6 to August 19. This list is based on the readers votes.

1. Dragon Quest VIII PlayStation 2
2. Final Fantasy XII PlayStation 2
3. Metal Gear Solid 3 : Snake Eater PlayStation 2
4. Tales of Rebirth PlayStation 2
5. Biohazard 4 Game Cube
6. Magna Carta PlayStation 2
7. Kingdom Hearts 2 PlayStation 2
8. To Heart 2 PlayStation 2
9. Gran Turismo 4 PlayStation 2
10. Mother 3 Game Boy Advance
11. Sakura Taisen V: Saraba Aishiki Hito-yo PlayStation 2
12. Tales of Symphonia PlayStation 2
13. Sengoku Musô : Môshôden PlayStation 2
14. Devil May Cry 3 PlayStation 2
15. Pokemon Emerald Game Boy Advance
16. Mario Tennis Game Cube
17. Fire Emblem: Seima no Kouseki Game Boy Advance
18. Shining Tears PlayStation 2
19. Killer 7 PlayStation 2 & Game Cube
20. Ace Combat 5 PlayStation 2

 

[RevenantKioku]

10. Mother 3 Game Boy Advance

COME TO ME

 

[AniHawk]

15. Pokemon Emerald Game Boy Advance

This will outsell all but #1, 2, 7, and 9.

 

[jarrod]

This will outsell all but #1 and 2.

Fixed.

 

[dark10x]

Fixed.

How well have the most recent Pokemon titles sold?

 

[Solid]

I wonder how long before that new boardgame from Square Enix (FF meets DQ) will be on the list. What's the name of the game?

 

[cvxfreak]

How well have the most recent Pokemon titles sold?

For Ruby/Sapphire, far beyond anything in the last 10 years in Japan except for other Pokemon games (5 Million). For Fire Red/Leaf Green, 2.4 Million combined.

 

[AniHawk]

How well have the most recent Pokemon titles sold?

The remakes sold about 1.25-1.3 million each, and RuSa was at 2.5 mil each at last count.

Fixed.

How well has GT done in Japan previously? KH2 is a tough call, but the original did sell 1.1-1.2 mil in Japan.

 

[GaimeGuy]

How well have the most recent Pokemon titles sold?

Pokemon Ruby and Sapphire are the best selling games of this generation. I think they're at around 15 million worldwide, now. They sold 4-5 million in japan.

the Blue/Green remakes have broken a million, too.

 

[jarrod]

How well have the most recent Pokemon titles sold?

-Pokemon Ruby/Sapphire (5,098,617)
-Pokemon Fire Red/ Leaf Green (2,221,142)

-Gran Turismo 3: A-Spec (1,438,743)
-Gran Turismo 4: Prologue Edition (746,967)
-Gran Turismo: Concept 2001 Tokyo (334,218)

-Kingdom Hearts (840,497)
-Kingdom Hearts: Final Mix (358,130)

...Emerald will probably break 2 million, I doubt either KH2 or GT4 can do that in Japan. FFXII might not even do it.

 

[cvxfreak]

I don't think Emerald will break 2 Million in Japan, but it can probably reach 1.5 Million.

 

[Cimarron]

What? No Halo 2 or Phantasy star universe?

 

[jarrod]

I don't think Emerald will break 2 Million in Japan, but it can probably reach 1.5 Million.

1.5M sounds like a lowball figure... remember sales won't be split this time thanks to a singular release (and past releases like Yellow & Crystal have had huge sales thanks to this, usually better than the individual releases of the sets before). I'd say 1.8M is a good bet for Emerald before it drops off the charts, GT4 and KH2 will both drop before that though.

 

[White Man]

Why is Magna Carta so anticipated? I didn't think it looked that special or anything. Is the hype strong with this one?

 

[cvxfreak]

1.5M sounds like a lowball figure... remember sales won't be split this time thanks to a singular release (and past releases like Yellow & Crystal have had huge sales thanks to this, usually better than the individual releases of the sets before). I'd say 1.8M is a good bet for Emerald before it drops off the charts, GT4 and KH2 will both drop before that though.

I'm taking into consideration the series' general decline in the last few years. 1.8 Million was what Crystal sold by the beginning of 2003, and that took three years. I find 1.5 Million a bit liberal, but I'd like to be proven wrong.

 

[TheGreenGiant]

is Mother confirmed? I feel a boner rising

 

[AniHawk]

I don't think Emerald will break 2 Million in Japan, but it can probably reach 1.5 Million.

Even then it might be tricky.

Nintendo's lowering the price of the GBA SP in Japan that day though, so I think it'll get to the 1.5 M mark.

 

[jiggle]

...Emerald will probably break 2 million, I doubt either KH2 or GT4 can do that in Japan. FFXII might not even do it.

FFXII can't break 2million? With the exception of XI, FF's been topping 2million in Japan since V. Even FFX-2 sold over that.

 

[AniHawk]

is Mother confirmed? I feel a boner rising

Last I heard, the game was 60% complete. That was a month or so ago.

The game has been in development for about as long as DNF has been, hasn't it?

 

[Dragona Akehi]

is Mother confirmed? I feel a boner rising

Mother 3's been confirmed for GBA for some time now. It's not coming West barring a miracle from God though.

 

[cvxfreak]

FFXII can't break 2million? With the exception of XI, FF's been topping 2million in Japan since V. Even FFX-2 sold over that.

DQ8 might cause some problems, which is what some people are predicting.

 

[AniHawk]

Mother 3's been confirmed for GBA for some time now. It's not coming West barring a miracle from God though.

Nintendo really should get on the fucking ball and bring Mother 1+2 and Mother 3 over along with Fire Emblem VI, Giftpia, and other games which would probably do well for them in the west. There's no reason any of those games wouldn't be able to perform well.

 

[AniHawk]

DQ8 might cause some problems, which is what some people are predicting.

Whoa whoa whoa... SE is actually planning on releasing DQVIII, FFXII, and KHII in the same year or something? Have they fucking lost it?

 

[Dragona Akehi]

Evidently since Earthbound (Mother 2) sold so badly (they were hoping for something like 3 million in sales, insanity!), Miyamoto said Mother will never see Western shores again.

I'd love to be wrong on this.

 

[jiggle]

DQ8 might cause some problems, which is what some people are predicting.

It's not gonna make that big of an impact though, to have a FF go from 2.75million(FFX) to sub-two million? 5 or 6 months after DQ's release?

 

[cvxfreak]

It's not gonna make that big of an impact though, to have a FF go from 2.75million(FFX) to sub-two million? 5 or 6 months after DQ's release?

FF games have been dropping in popularity with every release since FF8. FF12 will just be a natural congression from FFX, and possibly FFX-2. Having a DQ title and other RPGs only hurts.

 

[AniHawk]

Evidently since Earthbound (Mother 2) sold so badly (they were hoping for something like 3 million in sales, insanity!), Miyamoto said Mother will never see Western shores again.

I'd love to be wrong on this.

That was a decade ago on a slightly smaller userbase. Mother 3 would be able to do well on the GBA. Not million seller, but at the very least pull The Lost Age and Fire Emblem numbers.

I can't believe Miyamoto would be stupid enough not to realize this.

 

[cvxfreak]

That was a decade ago on a slightly smaller userbase. Mother 3 would be able to do well on the GBA. Not million seller, but at the very least pull The Lost Age and Fire Emblem numbers.

My thoughts exactly. Earthbound has an American following, both games have English scripts, and FE/GS numbers aren't out of the question.

 

[GaimeGuy]

You guys speak as if Miyamoto is the guy who makes the decision on whether Nintendo releases a mother game here. Miyamoto handles software. While I'm sure he has probably just as much pull in the company as the top execs do, it's stupid to put all the blame on him.

But yeah, I want Mother 3. and 1+2. ;_;

 

[AniHawk]

Isn't Shiggy head of the Board of Directors or something important like that?

 

[neptunes]

I don't see zelda GC anywhere

 

[cvxfreak]

Isn't Shiggy head of the Board of Directors or something important like that?

Isn't that Yamauchi's panel? If so, then Yamauchi would be the dominant force...

 

[Miburou]

FF games have been dropping in popularity with every release since FF8. FF12 will just be a natural congression from FFX, and possibly FFX-2. Having a DQ title and other RPGs only hurts.

Actually, I think FFX sold slightly better than FFIX in Japan, and you can't really count FFXI or FFX-2 as proper FF games. As for DQVIII and FFXII, aren't these two 6 months apart? Personally, I think FFXII will do slightly better than FFX and sell 3M.

 

[cvxfreak]

Actually, I think FFX sold slightly better than FFIX in Japan, and you can't really count FFXI or FFX-2 as proper FF games. As for DQVIII and FFXII, aren't these two 6 months apart? Personally, I think FFXII will do slightly better than FFX and sell 3M.

If you include the International version, according to Magic Box, FFX still 100K units behind FFIX. I think FFXII would have to be one hell of a game to sell three million units, though.

 

[Drexon]

Wow, just wow. It must be great living in a world where no Xbox exists.

 

[neptunes]

I think ff12 will have no problem selling.

It's been a while since they've played a new and fresh installment though. (New story, new battle system, no random battles etc..)

Not to mention that it may be longer than it's Predecessors (comming out on two dvd's)

 

[Dragona Akehi]

That was a decade ago on a slightly smaller userbase. Mother 3 would be able to do well on the GBA. Not million seller, but at the very least pull The Lost Age and Fire Emblem numbers.

I can't believe Miyamoto would be stupid enough not to realize this.

Oh I definately agree. Times, they have a changed. However considering how long it took NCL/NOA to change their minds on Fire Emblem (15 years+!) I somehow lack the confidence that we'll see Mother 1 + 2, let alone Mother 3 anytime soon. And I'd relish being wrong on this one.

 

[AniHawk]

It must be great living in a world where no Xbox exists.

You may say I'm a dreamer, but I'm not the only one. I hope some day you'll join us, and the world will live as one.

 

[SolidSnakex]

FF games have been dropping in popularity with every release since FF8. FF12 will just be a natural congression from FFX, and possibly FFX-2. Having a DQ title and other RPGs only hurts.

DQ8 is coming out later this year, FFXII probably won't be out till the middle of next year, so it's not going to hurt FFXII. That game is a lock for 2 million.

 

[Miburou]

I was basing that on Square shipped figures that were on some slide. Anyway, it's been a long while since the last true FF game (4 years when FFXII comes out), so I think FFXII will be more highly anticipated, and will have sales higher than FFX, the same way FFVIII sold better than FFVII.

 

[jarrod]

I'm taking into consideration the series' general decline in the last few years. 1.8 Million was what Crystal sold by the beginning of 2003, and that took three years. I find 1.5 Million a bit liberal, but I'd like to be proven wrong.

Crystal sold 2.4M in Japan (about 9M worldwide). It actually outsold Yellow in Japan (2.16M). Looking at past games, even factoring in the decline, 1.5M should be easily attainable for Emerald. Again, you can't say the same for GT4 or KH2 with any certainty (though I do think FFXII will pass it).

FFXII can't break 2million? With the exception of XI, FF's been topping 2million in Japan since V. Even FFX-2 sold over that.

Only with the International rereleases (which usually have extra content). FFX-2 on it's own didn't pass 2M the first time (though FFX did).

It's not gonna make that big of an impact though, to have a FF go from 2.75million(FFX) to sub-two million? 5 or 6 months after DQ's release?

Look at FFIX on PS1 versus DQVII. And for FF numbers...

Final Fantasy X (2,294,640)
Final Fantasy X-2 (1,941,727)
Final Fantasy X-2 International + Last Mission (265,636)
Final Fantasy X International (240,940)
Final Fantasy X MEGA HITS! Edition (159,640)
Final Fantasy XI: Online (150,079)
Final Fantasy XI: Jirato no Genei (132,055)
Final Fantasy XI: Online + Jirato no Genei (13,889)

If you include the International version, according to Magic Box, FFX still 100K units behind FFIX. I think FFXII would have to be one hell of a game to sell three million units, though.

Indeed, considering today's software market in Japan, I'm not entirely sure if even DQ8 will break 3M right away... FFXII has little chance of doing so imo.

 

[SolidSnakex]

"Looking at past games, even factoring in the decline, 1.5M should be easily attainable for Emerald. Again, you can't say the same for GT4 or KH2 with any certainty (though I do think FFXII will pass it)."

You can say it for GT4, if you're basing this off the series past success. From The Magic Box:

Gran Turismo - 2.54 million
Gran Turismo 2 - 1.8 million
Gran Turismo 3 - 1.8 million

GT's also the only really popular racer in Japan at the moment, so it's basically got that entire market to itself.

 

[Miburou]

I guess we'll see in 9 months or so. I'll be buying FFXII when it comes out in Japan, so that's +1 sale.

 

[cvxfreak]

jarrod, where did you get the Pokemon figures?

 

[jarrod]

"Looking at past games, even factoring in the decline, 1.5M should be easily attainable for Emerald. Again, you can't say the same for GT4 or KH2 with any certainty (though I do think FFXII will pass it)."

You can say it for GT4, if you're basing this off the series past success. From The Magic Box:

Gran Turismo - 2.54 million
Gran Turismo 2 - 1.8 million
Gran Turismo 3 - 1.8 million

GT's also the only really popular racer in Japan at the moment, so it's basically got that entire market to itself.

I think the drop from GT3 to GT4 will be comparable to GT1 & GT2 (though not as pronounced thanks to a little longer wait between them). Also, do we know what references MB uses for it's Platnum Chart (as it's GT3 numbers are about 360k higher than SOD/MCreate). You also have to factor in the declining JP market (no game series seems to be doing as well on PS2 as they did on PS1), I really doubt GT4 will manage 1.8M (though 1.5M seems pretty likely).

 

[jarrod]

jarrod, where did you get the Pokemon figures?

Magic Box. I dunno what they use though, I'd assume Famitsu?

 

[cvxfreak]

Magic Box. I dunno what they use though, I'd assume Famitsu?

Oh, I see.

By the beginning of 2003, Famitsu had this number:
６２ ポケットモンスター　クリスタルバージョン 任天堂 GB 216,718 1,845,630 2000/12/14

It just seems so weird that Magic Box has a higher figure, unless they used a Nintendo number which is also a possibility.

 

[Miburou]

no game series seems to be doing as well on PS2 as they did on PS1

MGS, WE and Tales of are doing better on PS2 than they did on PS1. I agree though that the market there has shrunk over the years.

 

[SolidSnakex]

The main reason for GT2's drop was because it was no longer new. GT was helped alot just by it being something new so alot of people went out and bought it, GT2 and GT3's seem to be more of an indication of the series actual fanbase, the people that are going to stay with it. No series is really doing as well as last gen, but alot of series now hav emore competition than they did last gen. GT still has no competition as no racer has came up this gen to compete with it in Japan.

 

[jarrod]

MGS, WE and Tales of are doing better on PS2 than they did on PS1. I agree though that the market there has shrunk over the years.

Well sure, there's a few isolated cases but the trend definitely seems to go one way in the vast majority of cases. GT included.