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[noshten]

The Top 50 titles on the PS5 have sold over 6.16M physical, and this is with Sony having forced bundles for a bunch of first party titles without those we are probably looking at 5.5M, for comparison just the Top 5 games on the PS4 sold over 6.78M. Digital has grown from the PS4 to the PS5 but not substantially so - especially when we discuss full priced software - when people mention 75% digital WW we are talking about catalog sales with deep discounts and digital only titles. Last year's PSN results pointed at Rebirth at around 150K digital, Dragon Quest III Remake / Dragon Dogma 2 at around 100K digital. Outside of DD2 & Palworld most titles were likely well below 50% digital

 

[Woopah]

That's the thing though, you're assuming digital and physical games have the same sales patterns and much of what we see is that that isn't true.

Two games could come out the same month, one could chart higher than the other but one has better legs than the other especially because of pricing strategy.

You're trying too hard to extrapolate without observing underlying behaviors that would suggest that doing so is not a good idea.

SYNDUALITY Echo of Ada came out in January and is currently higher than Monster Hunter Wilds on the PSN JPN store.

Why do you think I'm assuming digital and physical games have the same sales patterns? I never said that.

Different games have different legs. That's completely true and doesn't affect anything I said.

 

[Woopah]

The Top 50 titles on the PS5 have sold over 6.16M physical, and this is with Sony having forced bundles for a bunch of first party titles without those we are probably looking at 5.5M, for comparison just the Top 5 games on the PS4 sold over 6.78M. Digital has grown from the PS4 to the PS5 but not substantially so - especially when we discuss full priced software - when people mention 75% digital WW we are talking about catalog sales with deep discounts and digital only titles. Last year's PSN results pointed at Rebirth at around 150K digital, Dragon Quest III Remake / Dragon Dogma 2 at around 100K digital. Outside of DD2 & Palworld most titles were likely well below 50% digital

Palworld was definitely over 50% digital because it was 100% digital.

How you calculating those figures in your last two sentences? 150k digital for Rebith is too low and there are probably multiple PS5 games with over 50% digital ratios.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

Why do you think I'm assuming digital and physical games have the same sales patterns? I never said that.

Different games have different legs. That's completely true and doesn't affect anything I said.

You said that we could determine a games digital cap based on its physical sales and even whether one game charts above another in a given month.

 

[Woopah]

You said that we could determine a games digital cap based on its physical sales and even whether one game charts above another in a given month.

I was talking about 2024 as a whole, not a given month.

In 2024, the total sales of Palworld were below the digital sales of Dragon's Dogma 2. Given that DD2 sold around 95k physical in 2024, its unlikely to have sold more than 400k digital copies last year. So that means Palworld is unlikely to have sold more than 400k copies last year. Every game ranked below DD2 in the 2024 list is unlikely to have sold more than 400k digital copies on PS5 that year.

Without physical charts, we wouldn't have this insight.

There's some uncertainty over this because its using Famitsu data, not Media Create. But we can do this same exercise with Media Create data once it comes out and see if it changes anything.

Of course this is just for 2024. To calculate how Palword does in 2025, we'll need to get the 2025 PS charts and compare them with the 2025 Famitsu / Media Create charts.

Edit: Put it this way. If we asked how Palworld and Black Myth Wukong did on PS5 in Europe in 2024, we wouldn't have much of a clue. Whereas because we have physical data in Japan, we can be fairly confident that Palworld did less than 400k there and Black Myth Wukong did less than 150k.

We can also look at games lower on the PS Store unit chart, and get an idea of the minimum sales of those games too.

 

[Baemono]

Palworld was definitely over 50% digital because it was 100% digital.

 

[noshten]

Palworld was definitely over 50% digital because it was 100% digital.

How you calculating those figures in your last two sentences? 150k digital for Rebith is too low and there are probably multiple PS5 games with over 50% digital ratios.

Thats why I said Palworld is over 50% digital, it didn't have a physical release


I'm talking specifically about the Top 10 sellers on the PSN for the year, outside of Palworld and Dragons Dogma 2 no other game clearly could have had over 50% digital ratio based on monthly position in the charts, physical sales and few. No doubt there is multiple PS5 games with over 50% digital ratios due to catalog sales at deep discounts and retailers not ordering that much physical to begin with

Rebirth is a JRPG with no online components and no shortages at launch. Is the type of game where 30% is the maximum I would expect to reach. This isn't like the Remake situation where they were shortages at launch leading to digital above 30%

We know from the Insomniac Leak that 1st Party games have 30% digital WW on average and Japan usually has lower digital
Nihon Falcom (small Japan only, console only publisher) has said that their digital sales are around 20% on the PS5
Yakuza: Like a Dragon had over 400k units in Japan (Dec 2023). Physical at that time in Japan had been over 300K across PS4/PS5 and there was a PC release, meaning that digital was between 20% to 40% 3 years after it launched

 

[Woopah]

Thats why I said Palworld is over 50% digital, it didn't have a physical release


I'm talking specifically about the Top 10 sellers on the PSN for the year, outside of Palworld and Dragons Dogma 2 no other game clearly could have had over 50% digital ratio based on monthly position in the charts, physical sales and few. No doubt there is multiple PS5 games with over 50% digital ratios due to catalog sales at deep discounts and retailers not ordering that much physical to begin with

Rebirth is a JRPG with no online components and no shortages at launch. Is the type of game where 30% is the maximum I would expect to reach. This isn't like the Remake situation where they were shortages at launch leading to digital above 30%

We know from the Insomniac Leak that 1st Party games have 30% digital WW on average and Japan usually has lower digital
Nihon Falcom (small Japan only, console only publisher) has said that their digital sales are around 20% on the PS5
Yakuza: Like a Dragon had over 400k units in Japan (Dec 2023). Physical at that time in Japan had been over 300K across PS4/PS5 and there was a PC release, meaning that digital was between 20% to 40% 3 years after it launched

I think you're underestimating the possible digital for some games. FFXVI was at 56% at launch in the UK (though under 50% across all of Europe). I could see it being possible that Rebirth was more than 40% digital.

In terms of other games in the PlayStation top 10, I'd say Black Myth Wukong, COD and Granblue could also be over 50%.

 

[Gambit2483]

I don't think anyone suggested it would be as powerful as a PS5, rather that it could play PS5 games that are modified to play on it at lower resolutions and maybe lower framerates.

At least 70% of PS5 games have PS4 cross gen version that could be played without patching, so the games that need to be patched are in that 30% potentially. That's not a huge lift, especially when a good percentage of those games are in-house.



For increased market share/TAM, I think Sony will be willing to sell at a loss, especially if they're selling the console for profit, especially the PS5 Pro.


I guarantee that Sony's handheld will come with at least 1TB of onboard storage. That's significant enough flexibility for a handheld and for those who want additional space MicroSDEX.





I mean this isn't even an issue. How did I "transfer" my PS4 games to my PS5? I just downloaded them... Digital games likely would have entitlement and obviously physical wouldn't.

Nothing you said is really an issue here.

I highly doubt Sony will be willing to sell at a loss for an all digital device where a majority of digital only owners can simply transfer their games over.

Also, they would be completely shitting over their loyal physical fanbase with no way to transfer their games (unless it's free or super cheap) either.

Memory isn't cheap. Just looked how much Steam Deck 1TB costs...and you expect this device, which is more powerful with as much memory to cost less than a 1TB Steam Deck??

These are indeed issues when you are trying to reach a mass market. There's a reason PC handhelds are niche products. Sony is not interested in making a niche product.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

I highly doubt Sony will be willing to sell at a loss for an all digital device where a majority of digital only owners can simply transfer their games over.

Sony is looking for greater engagement and increasing TAM. People playing on a device, even one they sell at a loss is still people continuing to play on PlayStation and buy future games on PlayStation. Libraries are overrated.

Also, they would be completely shitting over their loyal physical fanbase with no way to transfer their games (unless it's free or super cheap) either

Not at all. People who buy physical do that to themselves and we already see the ramifications of that.

Memory isn't cheap. Just looked how much Steam Deck 1TB costs...and you expect this device, which is more powerful with as much memory to cost less than a 1TB Steam Deck??

Sony is already mass producing storage with the PS5. This is where economies of scale come into play.

These are indeed issues when you are trying to reach a mass market. There's a reason PC handhelds are niche products. Sony is not interested in making a niche product.

I solved all your problems in like 1 minute...

 

[Baemono]

Its 35k yen now.

The reasoning is the depreciaiton of the yen. Back in 2020 $199 was around 20k yen. Now $199 is over 28k yen.

Yes but you can argue the Switch should then be more expensive too, which is not the case

 

[Woopah]

Yes but you can argue the Switch should then be more expensive too, which is not the case

Yes Nintendo just decided to take the hit rather than raise prices, but it's probably easier for them on Switch as the hardware margin is better.

For Switch 2 they are also taking a profit hit with the Japanese-only price.