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[thicc_girls_are_teh_best]

Collapse? What percentage constitutes a collapse?

They've been losing market share to growth of PC and Nintendo (mainly PC tho, considering Nintendo's total market share with Switch has remained steady) over the past 2-3 years, where PC grew 3x to ~ 15% and console has stagnated at 20%.

Keep in mind market share isn't just about consoles being sold; it also includes software and that's the real metric where PS5 has been collapsing in Japan compared to PS4. Software sales on the whole are just incredibly dismal and every major game for the system in the region has underperformed, even Monster Hunter Wilds. Considering physical is still a massive component of the Japanese games market (for home console & portable anyway), even big games coming up short in that regard means digital sales probably aren't a lot to make up the difference.

I'd argue for titles like Wilds, Steam has picked up a lot of the slack for PS5 underperformance, but as those are digital sales they aren't reflected in Famitsu or Media Create charts.

It's okay to admit that PlayStation's market share in Japan has shrunk, and collapsed in terms of software sales, and that it's not some inevitability to which SIE can do nothing about. They just don't seem to care enough to try, OR they're trying BTS but it's a strategy they'd employ for the PS6 generation where they can have a fresh start. Key to that is, they need more software appealing to the Japanese market, and with some clever big IP in addition to that. 1P-wise they have the Ghosts series and in theory, Astro Bot, they just need to be smart in how they grow those IP going forward.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

They've been losing market share to growth of PC and Nintendo (mainly PC tho, considering Nintendo's total market share with Switch has remained steady) over the past 2-3 years, where PC grew 3x to ~ 15% and console has stagnated at 20%.

Keep in mind market share isn't just about consoles being sold; it also includes software and that's the real metric where PS5 has been collapsing in Japan compared to PS4. Software sales on the whole are just incredibly dismal and every major game for the system in the region has underperformed, even Monster Hunter Wilds. Considering physical is still a massive component of the Japanese games market (for home console & portable anyway), even big games coming up short in that regard means digital sales probably aren't a lot to make up the difference.

I'd argue for titles like Wilds, Steam has picked up a lot of the slack for PS5 underperformance, but as those are digital sales they aren't reflected in Famitsu or Media Create charts.

It's okay to admit that PlayStation's market share in Japan has shrunk, and collapsed in terms of software sales, and that it's not some inevitability to which SIE can do nothing about. They just don't seem to care enough to try, OR they're trying BTS but it's a strategy they'd employ for the PS6 generation where they can have a fresh start. Key to that is, they need more software appealing to the Japanese market, and with some clever big IP in addition to that. 1P-wise they have the Ghosts series and in theory, Astro Bot, they just need to be smart in how they grow those IP going forward.

The same person who is wrong all the time, with no real figures ignores

• The combined unit sales of Nintendo's console and handheld product lines selling fewer total units
• The shift in digital sales which aren't captured by famitsu/media create charts
• The shift towards F2P gaming as a large percentage of revenue
• The lack of any real numbers on PC out of Japan

You're long winded, but you're not good at this.

 

[LordOcidax]

The same person who is wrong all the time, with no real figures ignores

• The combined unit sales of Nintendo's console and handheld product lines selling fewer total units
• The shift in digital sales which aren't captured by famitsu/media create charts
• The shift towards F2P gaming as a large percentage of revenue
• The lack of any real numbers on PC out of Japan

You're long winded, but you're not good at this.

Lol, PS5 gen is going to be the worst one for Sony in Japan in terms of of Hardware and Software and is getting worse… Everybody is seeing this and pointing it out… The only one that is saying that Sony is doing good in Japan is you … So everybody is wrong and you are right. Nintendo is going to force Sony to make and Hybrid console for their next Hardware… But everything is ok according to you.

 

[Fake]

I wouldn't say that's fully accurate (in that it's not just a Sony problem).

Sony was the biggest physical publisher on PS5 in 2020-2022, and this year two of the biggest games on PS5 are Death Stranding 2 and Ghost of Yotei.

It is. We are talking about Japan, not about the world. This is a Famitsu thread in case you forgot.

 

[DenchDeckard]

Let's say Sony does what Nintendo did, and release a Japanese-only PS5 that is sold at a loss.

Its going to result in what, an extra 1 or 2 million units sold? Is it worth it for Sony to lose money for that?


We have Fantasy Life next week which might be interesting. But June is when the real fun begins.

I wouldn't say that's fully accurate (in that it's not just a Sony problem).

Sony was the biggest physical publisher on PS5 in 2020-2022, and this year two of the biggest games on PS5 are Death Stranding 2 and Ghost of Yotei.

Good point, I have no idea if it is worth it to Sony or not. In fact, it clearly isn't as they would do it I guess.

 

[Hector Hall]

In any case, Sony must do something with PS5 price in Japan.

For now, it has pretty much the same as PS4, but more weeks at 6/7K will start making a difference.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

Lol, PS5 gen is going to be the worst one for Sony in Japan in terms of of Hardware and Software and is getting worse… Everybody is seeing this and pointing it out… The only one that is saying that Sony is doing good in Japan is you … So everybody is wrong and you are right. Nintendo is going to force Sony to make and Hybrid console for their next Hardware… But everything is ok according to you.

You're exhausting...

How many PS5s will sell lifetime in Japan?
What percent of PS5 gaming revenue is generated by F2P games compared to say PS3?
What percent of PS5 games are sold digitally compared to PS3?

Sony isn't "forced" to make a handheld, they've made 2 handhelds and 4 consoles since the PS1... They're traditionally involved in the handheld market and have been since the PSP. They skipped a handheld after the Vita failed because they needed to focus on their console business.

PlayStation has never been more profitable in their history. So yes, things are going well. And Japan is a small piece of that.

Good point, I have no idea if it is worth it to Sony or not. In fact, it clearly isn't as they would do it I guess.

LOL, now you concede that it's not worth it... when it was the first question I asked.

1-2 million more PS5s sold is not going to change the lifetime sales of the PS5 significantly. Sony sees a global picture, but somehow you guys are hyperfocused on Japan, not France, not Germany, but Japan.

Why? Because we get weekly charts for it? Because that is Sony's home? PlayStation HQ is in California... The vast plurality of their studios are California based. The vast majority of their studios are based in the US.

Sony could drop the price of the PS5 in Japan anytime they wanted to. They just had a Monster Hunter Wilds bundle, but they followed it up with no Astro Bot bundle or equivalent. Sony could buy Japanese development studios or companies any time they wanted to. They're sitting on 5 billion dollars (just PlayStation, not Sony).

Sony is a global company with a global goal.

In any case, Sony must do something with PS5 price in Japan.

For now, it has pretty much the same as PS4, but more weeks at 6/7K will start making a difference.

Sony could stop selling PS5 in Japan and they'd still end up with more PS5s sold than PS4s at the end of this generation. The MAUs are there. The players are in the West, not in Japan.

 

[EDMIX]

Nintendo is going to force Sony to make and Hybrid console for their next Hardware… But everything is ok according to you.

? that doesn't really make any sense though, thats like saying Sony will force Nintendo to make a dedicated home console cause the success of PS4 and PS5...

What works for Sony, may not work for Nintendo and what works for Nintendo, may not work for Sony...

So....I don't get this strange notion btw as both companies are literally making some of the most money they've ever made in their entire histories, based on their OWN PATHS their currently on, so why the fuck would Sony give up all the 3rd party sales and marketshare, to chase Switch? Last I recall, its Sony and MS that will be getting the biggest game of the decade on their platforms regarding GTAVI.

So Sony already has a audience and platform, they need not chasing Switch as they can just make another portable on the side if they wanted to, it was Nintendo that failed with Wii U moving 14 million units that forced their own hand to leave that market, so....unless PS6 is moving 14 million units, I see zero reason for Sony to leave their own respective market.

At least fucking have the conversation about what they BOTH DO instead of this odd console warrior shit man, neither company would do well leaving their markets, cause another company is making record profits else where, that isn't an absolution or set thing.

 

[Woopah]

It is. We are talking about Japan, not about the world. This is a Famitsu thread in case you forgot.

I was also talking about Japan. What I say in that post is accurate for Japan.

Why do you think I'm talking about the world?

They had 2 exclusive FF games, they had Rise of the Ronin, Astrobot, last year's GOTY game was made by a japanese studio, the latest Monster Hunter game was basically a PS console exclusive in Japan (one of the biggest gaming IPs in there), Silent Hill 2 was a PS console exclusive (famous Konami IP), Stellar Blade wasn't japanese but it caters to their tastes as well...nothing worked.

Maybe the problem isn't the content? Maybe the problem is the market that's rejecting the brand and nothing Sony does is going to change that while they keep having home consoles only...something japan doesn't care for.

edit: This year alone they have Death Stranding 2...a Hideo Kojima game, one of Japan's biggest game developers in history, and Ghost of Tsushima's sequel. Literally both AAA titls releasing this year from Sony should cater to japan's tastes...again...they won't sell that much. And it's not on Sony. But please let's not pretend Sony is ignoring games from Japan or anything, cause that's clearly not the case.

The main problem is the content. The issue is that the content which helped Sony in the 90s and 00s is largely not as popular any more (e.g. Final Fantasy and Kojima).

The last price increase they did. Didn't it include Japan alongside parts of Europe, or was it just Europe?

It was Europe, Australia and New Zealand. No increase for Japan.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

The main problem is the content. The issue is that the content which helped Sony in the 90s and 00s is largely not as popular any more (e.g. Final Fantasy and Kojima).

What are the top 10 games on the Japan PSN Store right now? What percentage of those are F2P games?

 

[Woopah]

What are the top 10 games on the Japan PSN Store right now? What percentage of those are F2P games?

70% from what I can see.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

70% from what I can see.

Of those F2P games, how many are on Switch?

 

[Woopah]

Of those F2P games, how many are on Switch?

Two of them are.

What's your point exactly?

 

[Mibu no ookami]

Two of them are.

What's your point exactly?

People discounting the prevalence of F2P on PS5 in Japan despite it being even more common place than the West is an interesting decision.

Games like Honkai Star Rail and Genshin Impact are just as big in Japan on PS5 as Fortnite is on PS5 in the US... Fortnite is the #1 game on the PSN store in the US right now. It doesn't show up on any circana sales charts, but it's bigger than CoD.

People continue to be obsessed with the charts despite what we know they don't tell us. It's silly at this point.

 

[Hector Hall]

Sony could stop selling PS5 in Japan and they'd still end up with more PS5s sold than PS4s at the end of this generation. The MAUs are there. The players are in the West, not in Japan.

Well, I think keeping a foothold on the Japanese market is important.
Now they are at 7 millions, and year and a half ago was the best PS year since the PS2. Having a foothold in Japan is very important to secure some games, and to do that the 10M user base of the PS3/PS4 is necessary.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

Well, I think keeping a foothold on the Japanese market is important.
Now they are at 7 millions, and year and a half ago was the best PS year since the PS2. Having a foothold in Japan is very important to secure some games, and to do that the 10M user base of the PS3/PS4 is necessary.

How many units is a foothold?

 

[MoreJRPG]

Those numbers are dire for PlayStation. Completely irrelevant in Japan. Switch 2 is two weeks away and they're getting clobbered there. The handheld is a smart pivot but it needs to share the same library as PS6 or it's DOA. Sony has proven it can't even support it's own platform currently, let alone 2 platforms with the catastrophic failure of PSVR1 and 2 and the Vita.

 

[Hector Hall]

Those numbers are dire for PlayStation. Completely irrelevant in Japan. Switch 2 is two weeks away and they're getting clobbered there. The handheld is a smart pivot but it needs to share the same library as PS6 or it's DOA. Sony has proven it can't even support it's own platform currently, let alone 2 platforms with the catastrophic failure of PSVR1 and 2 and the Vita.

Their platform is supported by the whole industry as it's the only one that sells 300m games yearly,they don't need to keep it afloat themselves, that kind of sinking ship is another company thing.

The handheld won't need their own specific support, it will just be compatible with PS4/PS5 games.


hey have to get back to the 20k weekly and they need a price cut, that's clear. But that's about it.

 

[Hector Hall]

How many units is a foothold?

Around 10M in Japan, as I told before. Handhelds is different as in any house there may be 2/3, one for each family member. But a home console it's usually one per each household. Given the current demographic crisis and economic turmoil, more that 10/11 million home consoles it's difficult to achieve. But with 10 million of active users you are about OK to support being a important platform in Japan.

 

[EDMIX]

The handheld won't need their own specific support, it will just be compatible with PS4/PS5 games.

Ok...I don't know how much of a market even really exist for that btw. Playing old games made for PS home console, but on the go, I just don't know that the PS Market in Japan cares about that to such a degree...

That sounds more like a novelty then some must have, mandatory type thing. Look at Steam Deck

The ability to play a game portable, doesn't mean the same market that loves those games on the big screen, will buy handheld to devalue and shrink that experience. So I'm not against it existing, merely that it will be seen as an option and not really some must have to keep the business up or something weird like this.

Their bread and butter will always be home console gaming

 

[Mibu no ookami]

Around 10M in Japan, as I told before. Handhelds is different as in any house there may be 2/3, one for each family member. But a home console it's usually one per each household. Given the current demographic crisis and economic turmoil, more that 10/11 million home consoles it's difficult to achieve. But with 10 million of active users you are about OK to support being a important platform in Japan.

The PS5 is absolutely going to come close to 10M units and the degree to which it is off is not going to be enough to support your argument.

Again, it's already sold 7 million units. If/when Sony actually drops the price of the PS5, it'll probably reach at least 9 million based on its current pace and its current price.

Ok...I don't know how much of a market even really exist for that btw. Playing old games made for PS home console, but on the go, I just don't know that the PS Market in Japan cares about that to such a degree...

That sounds more like a novelty then some must have, mandatory type thing. Look at Steam Deck

The ability to play a game portable, doesn't mean the same market that loves those games on the big screen, will buy handheld to devalue and shrink that experience. So I'm not against it existing, merely that it will be seen as an option and not really some must have to keep the business up or something weird like this.

Their bread and butter will always be home console gaming

I somewhat disagree here.

I think the answer is it depends.

I think one problem sony has is that they're going to be late to market and by the time they release a handheld, the Switch 2 will already have Genshin Impact and others. That's a big draw that they won't have

That being said, I think there are a lot of people who don't have TVs or large TVs in Japan that would buy a handheld PlayStation if it were affordable enough.

Gran Turismo sold VERY well on PSP and the Vita sold VERY well relative to the rest of the world despite the lack of games. There's certainly a market there for Sony to at least increase their market share from 10 million to 15 million and possibly even more if they get the tech, timing, and price right.

 

[Walter Matthau]

The PS5 is absolutely going to come close to 10M units and the degree to which it is off is not going to be enough to support your argument.

Again, it's already sold 7 million units. If/when Sony actually drops the price of the PS5, it'll probably reach at least 9 million based on its current pace and its current price.



I somewhat disagree here.

I think the answer is it depends.

I think one problem sony has is that they're going to be late to market and by the time they release a handheld, the Switch 2 will already have Genshin Impact and others. That's a big draw that they won't have

That being said, I think there are a lot of people who don't have TVs or large TVs in Japan that would buy a handheld PlayStation if it were affordable enough.

Gran Turismo sold VERY well on PSP and the Vita sold VERY well relative to the rest of the world despite the lack of games. There's certainly a market there for Sony to at least increase their market share from 10 million to 15 million and possibly even more if they get the tech, timing, and price right.

I think a handheld that can play the full PS4/PS5 library (excluding VR) would do very well in all regions if they can get to the market quick enough and the price is "affordable".

I think the main issue for it is the longer it takes the more crowded the space will get. If they don't launch until sometime late like Q4 2027, they might miss their window.

PS5 home console will hit 10m in Japan. It has a lot of life left and many games yet to release.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

I think a handheld that can play the full PS4/PS5 library (excluding VR) would do very well in all regions if they can get to the market quick enough and the price is "affordable".

I think the main issue for it is the longer it takes the more crowded the space will get. If they don't launch until sometime late like Q4 2027, they might miss their window.

PS5 home console will hit 10m in Japan. It has a lot of life left and many games yet to release.

I've been thinking a lot about the timing on this the last couple of years.

What actually complicates things is the PS6 SOC.

There are two ways of thinking about things. You can create a handheld SOC that shares similar architecture as the PS6 home console and you can even have a SKU using the handheld SOC that might be an entry level price like the Series S. If this is the case, releasing early hurts the PS6.

You could release a handheld that plays PS4 and updated PS5 games, but you're not going to get PS6 games. PS5 will have a lot of crossover with the PS6 and you could easily release this handheld in 2026 or 2027 and wait to release the PS6 in 2028, 2029, or even 2030, but ultimately, this is going to be more work for devs than the handheld being a PS6 family device.

I think Sony is in a rough spot in terms fo releasing the PS6 too early to have it coincide with the development and launch of a PS6 family handheld, the results of which will be that the PS6 is not a substantial upgrade over the PS5 let alone the PS5 Pro.

I think if you released a PS5 handheld by the end of 2026 and a PS6 handheld a year after the PS6 home console, and the home console comes out in 2029, meaning the handheld come out in 2030, that would be a win. You could even maybe delay it (the handheld) until 20231 or 2032 because the cross gen period with PS5 is still going to be going strong.

 

[Lionel Richie]

Sony could stop selling PS5 in Japan and they'd still end up with more PS5s sold than PS4s at the end of this generation. The MAUs are there. The players are in the West, not in Japan.

Wanna bet?

 

[MoreJRPG]

Their platform is supported by the whole industry as it's the only one that sells 300m games yearly,they don't need to keep it afloat themselves, that kind of sinking ship is another company thing.

The handheld won't need their own specific support, it will just be compatible with PS4/PS5 games.


hey have to get back to the 20k weekly and they need a price cut, that's clear. But that's about it.

No one is buying games on PS5. The console is a F2P machine. Astro Bot hasn't even sold 3 million yet. Ratchet and Clank I don't think has hit 4. Playstation has stopped reporting sales for their first party games other than Spider-Man because they are so dire so I don't know what you're talking about.

Microtransactions is all PlayStation has at the moment, and Xbox games lmao.

 

[Shubh_C63]

I think point ( . ) system instead of using ( , ) is absolute insanity,

 

[EDMIX]

Wanna bet?

I mean, with GTAVI coming, I'd wait to bet against some shit like that lol

PS4 moved those units and only had RDR2 as a new Rockstar release, GTA is the megaton of open world games.

 

[Hector Hall]

No one is buying games on PS5. The console is a F2P machine. Astro Bot hasn't even sold 3 million yet. Ratchet and Clank I don't think has hit 4. Playstation has stopped reporting sales for their first party games other than Spider-Man because they are so dire so I don't know what you're talking about.

Microtransactions is all PlayStation has at the moment, and Xbox games lmao.

300 million games sold last year, 15000 million in income, so a average price of 50 dollars per game sold even with indies and sales.

In Japan David Ahmad told a couple months ago that most games are well above 50% digital launch and go up after that.

Microtransactions is strong, yes, as it is in PC, but PlayStation and Nintendo are the only places were games are sold at a premium - esque prices.

PlayStation has never updated their first party sales as Nintendo or Capcom.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

Wanna bet?

What's the bet? It's a hypothetical based on the most simple math…

 

[Woopah]

People discounting the prevalence of F2P on PS5 in Japan despite it being even more common place than the West is an interesting decision.

Games like Honkai Star Rail and Genshin Impact are just as big in Japan on PS5 as Fortnite is on PS5 in the US... Fortnite is the #1 game on the PSN store in the US right now. It doesn't show up on any circana sales charts, but it's bigger than CoD.

People continue to be obsessed with the charts despite what we know they don't tell us. It's silly at this point.

None of the games Tiago mentioned were F2P though. He was saying that Sony was catering to Japan because they had things like Silent Hill, Stellar Blade and Death Stranding. I was pointing those sort of things don't have mass appeal in Japan (MH and FF still does, though FF isn't as big as it used to be).

Those F2P game are probably more important to PS5 than most of the titles Tiago mentioned.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

None of the games Tiago mentioned were F2P though. He was saying that Sony was catering to Japan because they had things like Silent Hill, Stellar Blade and Death Stranding. I was pointing those sort of things don't have mass appeal in Japan (MH and FF still does, though FF isn't as big as it used to be).

Those F2P game are probably more important to PS5 than most of the titles Tiago mentioned.

Maybe the problem isn't the content? Maybe the problem is the market that's rejecting the brand and nothing Sony does is going to change that while they keep having home consoles only...something japan doesn't care for.

There is this idea that people are buying PS5s at almost the exact same rate they bought PS4s which wasn't far off from the PS3 but that people just aren't playing anything. This premise is built almost entirely around the fact that famitsu charts don't present digital sales or F2P revenue, two massive shifts in real market conditions, but forums struggle to comprehend data that they can't see and verify on a weekly or monthly basis.

Of the 12 games in 2024 that generated the most revenue on Steam worldwide, five of them were F2P, and another was F2P adjacent (CoD Warzone). None of them would have appeared on any charts if charts were handled like Famitsu.

Five of the next 12 are also F2P.

It should be noted that Roblox, Fortnite, and Genshin Impact are not on Steam.

I've been following sales charts since the early 2000s. I'm very attached to them, they're the only datasource we have that gives a historic comparison of gaming, but this is not like MLB, NBA, or NFL statistics (many of which are also skewed due to changes in rules). This is seismic. Famitsu charts are borderline worthless now, but people will still come to massive conclusions based on them. Hell, even Circana data isn't great since we don't even get numbers anymore. There is an opacity to the industry now, which is really unfortunate, but the answer isn't to double down on these charts.

There is no evidence that Japan is "rejecting" Sony, at least no more now than they did since the PS3. Is Sony going to drop a console that sells 20 million units and has million sellers via physical copies? Probably not.

I've purchased two physical games in the last ten years, both being massive sales and I played neither of them (Cyberpunk 2077 for 10 dollars, and Kingdom Hearts Collection for 40 dollars), the last physical game I purchased before that was Uncharted 4. I've spent considerably more money on games over this 10 year period, none of which would be tracked via famitsu charting if I was buying in Japan, but people disregard this on a weekly basis, because they don't understand how to grasp what they can't see. We've got to do better than that, even if the data is opaque.

 

[Hector Hall]

No one is buying games on PS5. The console is a F2P machine. Astro Bot hasn't even sold 3 million yet. Ratchet and Clank I don't think has hit 4. Playstation has stopped reporting sales for their first party games other than Spider-Man because they are so dire so I don't know what you're talking about.

Microtransactions is all PlayStation has at the moment, and Xbox games lmao.

Thats it. Daniel Ahmad confirmed himself weeks ago that most games are already way over 50% digital in Japan at launch, and we know Famitsu doesn't cover Amazon jp to start with, yet people want to push that narrative of PS users not buying games.

Let alone that 3 or 4 F2P games are massive there, but somehow they are ignored, mocked, and the fact F2P are the big earners on PC worldwide.

Machine sells 302 million games last year at 50 dollar average and we have to hear constantly these people on forums saying funny shot as nobody buying games on the system.

 

[thicc_girls_are_teh_best]

The same person who is wrong all the time, with no real figures ignores

• The combined unit sales of Nintendo's console and handheld product lines selling fewer total units
• The shift in digital sales which aren't captured by famitsu/media create charts
• The shift towards F2P gaming as a large percentage of revenue
• The lack of any real numbers on PC out of Japan

1: Different generations, different market conditions, different pricing. If Nintendo's consoles & handhelds have generally gotten more expensive, then unit sales will see a dip. This is common sense, but you don't understand that when it's anybody aside from PlayStation. And even knowing that, ultimately it's the software sales that matter and in that regard, Nintendo's only been seeing growth.

2: There is no large-scale digital shift for console in Japan that offsets high drops in physical. We know this because we already have market data stating as such. The "digital shifts" you want to pretend exist for PlayStation in Japan, are simply reflective in digital growth for Nintendo (due to selling more games, due to selling a boatload of hardware units so larger customer base = naturally more digital growth as well as physical), and increased PC popularity (primarily in Steam, an all-digital platform).

There is zero evidence to suggest digital shift for PS in Japan is approaching what we see in the West, or even getting within arm's reach. There may be one or two outliers, but a trend that does not make. Also, pretending games like Geshin represent a digital shift, when those are digital-only titles in the first place, is disingenuous when the whole topic is about digital share of physical game sales for PlayStation in Japan being weak (and the digital ratio not strong enough to offset the shift for those games).

3: F2P has jack-zilch to do with my point which, for the 3rd time, is digital sales ratio of physical traditional PlayStation games in Japan.

4: We already have some real numbers: PC market share grew 3x from ~ 5% to 15.3% within a 3-year span (2022 - 2024) in Japan. In that same span, the console market share stagnated at ~ 20%, and the mobile market saw a very slight retraction.

Contextual clues should cue you in that most of PC's growth has come at the expense of console stagnation, and if Nintendo's share of the Japanese console market has only grown while Xbox's has stayed pathetic as usual, then the console platform losing ground is PlayStation. Which is reflected in the generally tepid software sales for traditional titles, considering the typical digital sales ratio for such games in Japan on console.

You trying to ignore this won't change those facts.

You're long winded, but you're not good at this.

You're short winded, and are terrible at rebuking.

Thats it. Daniel Ahmad confirmed himself weeks ago that most games are already way over 50% digital in Japan at launch, and we know Famitsu doesn't cover Amazon jp to start with, yet people want to push that narrative of PS users not buying games.

"At launch" should be the key words there. That says nothing about long-term or lifetime sales, and is it really "most games", or just most games you feel they would mean going off of recollection?

Also worth asking, is that stat from Ahmad about the games in general, regardless of platform? As that would also include PC which, as I said earlier, has seen a 3x market share increase in Japan the past 2-3 years. That would absolutely help push digital ratios for software releases which are multiplatform console/PC.

Lastly, it's not a narrative of PS owners not buying games; it's a question of where are the Japanese PS5 owners buying these games that barely if ever chart in Famitsu or Media Create? Are they really making up those sales buying digitally from the PS Store?

I've not seen any proof that is the case.

Wanna bet?

He has no idea what he's talking about. For one, the people hedging bets on GTA6 moving mountains of consoles should probably ask what number of would-be GTA6 customers have already purchased PS5s. I'd argue quite a few of them, especially among Day 1 GTA6 players. GTA6 will give a nice bump in console sales for sure but some are expecting PS5 launch-esque figures from its release and that is just not happening.

Also, some of these same people were betting big on Monster Hunter rejuvenating Japanese PS5 sales for the long-term. Well, it definitely helped to give a short-term boost period for console sales, but that only lasted maybe a couple of weeks. Afterwards, sales returned to normal and have since then fallen much lower. Even worst, it doesn't seem like MH Wilds gave the long-term boost to PS5 software sales some were expecting in Japan because again, seems like a lot of software isn't charting and yes, physical software sales are still the standard go by in Japan (for console) despite what some people ITT want to pretend otherwise.

I can see PS5 matching PS4 lifetime by 2028 but that'll have been with an extra year on the market. FWIW, SIE's guidance for this FY is 15 million unit. They are currently at ~77 million shipped, probably 76 million sold-through. So by April 2026, probably 90 million sold-through. Guidance for FY 2026 could be 10-12 million, so by April 2027, 101-102 million sold-through. Let's say another 10 million for FY 2027; April 2028...111-112 million. These are realistic FY sales guidance amounts I feel, but you can see they'd need through April 2029 to meet or exceed PS4's total units sold-through going by this pattern (and knowing for FY 2028, it'd be a lot less than 10 million anyhow).

Honestly, I think they need GTA6 to be a big hit TO hit PS4 numbers launch-aligned, much less exceed them launch-aligned or longer-term, because the year GTA6 releases I'm not expecting it to add more than maybe 2 million in total PS5 unit sales, and that'll drop to 1 million the year after, and further drop once the PC version is available (and maybe, a Switch 2 version tho that's not a guarantee). And all of this is while expecting no further price increases, mind. If say there's a price increase for PS5 this year or next in America (let alone other parts of the world), I'd shave off 5% from all the numbers I just mentioned, easily.

 

[Woopah]

There is this idea that people are buying PS5s at almost the exact same rate they bought PS4s which wasn't far off from the PS3 but that people just aren't playing anything. This premise is built almost entirely around the fact that famitsu charts don't present digital sales or F2P revenue, two massive shifts in real market conditions, but forums struggle to comprehend data that they can't see and verify on a weekly or monthly basis.

Of the 12 games in 2024 that generated the most revenue on Steam worldwide, five of them were F2P, and another was F2P adjacent (CoD Warzone). None of them would have appeared on any charts if charts were handled like Famitsu.

Five of the next 12 are also F2P.

It should be noted that Roblox, Fortnite, and Genshin Impact are not on Steam.

I've been following sales charts since the early 2000s. I'm very attached to them, they're the only datasource we have that gives a historic comparison of gaming, but this is not like MLB, NBA, or NFL statistics (many of which are also skewed due to changes in rules). This is seismic. Famitsu charts are borderline worthless now, but people will still come to massive conclusions based on them. Hell, even Circana data isn't great since we don't even get numbers anymore. There is an opacity to the industry now, which is really unfortunate, but the answer isn't to double down on these charts.


I've purchased two physical games in the last ten years, both being massive sales and I played neither of them (Cyberpunk 2077 for 10 dollars, and Kingdom Hearts Collection for 40 dollars), the last physical game I purchased before that was Uncharted 4. I've spent considerably more money on games over this 10 year period, none of which would be tracked via famitsu charting if I was buying in Japan, but people disregard this on a weekly basis, because they don't understand how to grasp what they can't see. We've got to do better than that, even if the data is opaque.

I completely agree with you on F2P, but Famitsu / Media Create is still very useful for games that have physical versions, especially when combined with other charts and information.

For example, we know that in 2024 the two biggest non-f2p games on PS5 were FF VII Rebirth and DQIII, and those two games sold considerably more than any other PS5 game.

That is useful/interesting information. We can even get a very rough idea of total sales by looking at a range of digital ratios.

There is no evidence that Japan is "rejecting" Sony, at least no more now than they did since the PS3. Is Sony going to drop a console that sells 20 million units and has million sellers via physical copies? Probably not.

Its not that the market is rejecting Sony since the 2000s, it's more that the PSP audience migrated elsewhere (mobile/Switch) and a lot of the major third party franchises from the PS2 era declined.

Where Sony is making up for that is having a strong presence in f2p, and that's one of the factors affecting PS5's traditional software sales.

 

[Hector Hall]

1: Different generations, different market conditions, different pricing. If Nintendo's consoles & handhelds have generally gotten more expensive, then unit sales will see a dip. This is common sense, but you don't understand that when it's anybody aside from PlayStation. And even knowing that, ultimately it's the software sales that matter and in that regard, Nintendo's only been seeing growth.

2: There is no large-scale digital shift for console in Japan that offsets high drops in physical. We know this because we already have market data stating as such. The "digital shifts" you want to pretend exist for PlayStation in Japan, are simply reflective in digital growth for Nintendo (due to selling more games, due to selling a boatload of hardware units so larger customer base = naturally more digital growth as well as physical), and increased PC popularity (primarily in Steam, an all-digital platform).

There is zero evidence to suggest digital shift for PS in Japan is approaching what we see in the West, or even getting within arm's reach. There may be one or two outliers, but a trend that does not make. Also, pretending games like Geshin represent a digital shift, when those are digital-only titles in the first place, is disingenuous when the whole topic is about digital share of physical game sales for PlayStation in Japan being weak (and the digital ratio not strong enough to offset the shift for those games).

3: F2P has jack-zilch to do with my point which, for the 3rd time, is digital sales ratio of physical traditional PlayStation games in Japan.

4: We already have some real numbers: PC market share grew 3x from ~ 5% to 15.3% within a 3-year span (2022 - 2024) in Japan. In that same span, the console market share stagnated at ~ 20%, and the mobile market saw a very slight retraction.

Contextual clues should cue you in that most of PC's growth has come at the expense of console stagnation, and if Nintendo's share of the Japanese console market has only grown while Xbox's has stayed pathetic as usual, then the console platform losing ground is PlayStation. Which is reflected in the generally tepid software sales for traditional titles, considering the typical digital sales ratio for such games in Japan on console.

You trying to ignore this won't change those facts.



You're short winded, and are terrible at rebuking.



"At launch" should be the key words there. That says nothing about long-term or lifetime sales, and is it really "most games", or just most games you feel they would mean going off of recollection?

Also worth asking, is that stat from Ahmad about the games in general, regardless of platform? As that would also include PC which, as I said earlier, has seen a 3x market share increase in Japan the past 2-3 years. That would absolutely help push digital ratios for software releases which are multiplatform console/PC.

Lastly, it's not a narrative of PS owners not buying games; it's a question of where are the Japanese PS5 owners buying these games that barely if ever chart in Famitsu or Media Create? Are they really making up those sales buying digitally from the PS Store?

I've not seen any proof that is the case.

Just to answer you on those questions.

Ahmad spoke precisely on the PS platform, saying the perception of PS owners in Japan weren't buying games was heavily skewed, most games sell already "well above 50%" digital at launch.

And as time pass, there's no more phisical reprints, not even The Best anymore, while the game remains always available digital. So the percentage increases.

The only time we have had some leaks of Media Create numbers was with the yearly Top 1 in 2021 (released in 2022) and some leak about some FF numbers last year. Numbers were like 25% higher on average compared Famitsu. So even in phisical there's a reasonable doubt Famitsu is doing a great job. For starters, they don't track Amazon. Jp. Sure, they may have an estimate on how much it must be selling on amazon, but is it accurate?

Gachas and F2P games are big in Japan, specially the Mihoyo ones, but your last question is very easy to answer. Where are most Japanese PS gamers buying games? Digitally on the PS Store.

It's totally unreasonable to have worldwide numbers of 75% digital sales in PS5 yet keep thinking in Japan it's a 10/15% as in the Vita and early PS4 times. And it's willingly blind to see phisical games in shambles worldwide, with stores reducing their games selecting and shelves space to a minimum and project an illusion that in Japan phisical games are somehow keeping ground. If they are, it's a small percentage of difference.

Famitsu has become nearly irrelevant in the game tracking, not tracking digital or online stores. Do you really believe with 33 million Switch out there the combined sales of the Top 10 isn't even 100k most weeks? Of course not.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

I completely agree with you on F2P, but Famitsu / Media Create is still very useful for games that have physical versions, especially when combined with other charts and information.

For example, we know that in 2024 the two biggest non-f2p games on PS5 were FF VII Rebirth and DQIII, and those two games sold considerably more than any other PS5 game.

That is useful/interesting information. We can even get a very rough idea of total sales by looking at a range of digital ratios.



Its not that the market is rejecting Sony since the 2000s, it's more that the PSP audience migrated elsewhere (mobile/Switch) and a lot of the major third party franchises from the PS2 era declined.

Where Sony is making up for that is having a strong presence in f2p, and that's one of the factors affecting PS5's traditional software sales.

For the fiscal year, 76% of full game software titles sold were digital. Japan represents like 9% of PS5's sold... That's 24% digital.

The highest Japan could be in terms of physical to digital is probably around 38%.

Charts that tell us at most 40% of the market (but could vary wildly on a per game basis) isn't as helpful as you're suggesting.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

Just to answer you on those questions.

Ahmad spoke precisely on the PS platform, saying the perception of PS owners in Japan weren't buying games was heavily skewed, most games sell already "well above 50%" digital at launch.

And as time pass, there's no more phisical reprints, not even The Best anymore, while the game remains always available digital. So the percentage increases.

The only time we have had some leaks of Media Create numbers was with the yearly Top 1 in 2021 (released in 2022) and some leak about some FF numbers last year. Numbers were like 25% higher on average compared Famitsu. So even in phisical there's a reasonable doubt Famitsu is doing a great job. For starters, they don't track Amazon. Jp. Sure, they may have an estimate on how much it must be selling on amazon, but is it accurate?

Gachas and F2P games are big in Japan, specially the Mihoyo ones, but your last question is very easy to answer. Where are most Japanese PS gamers buying games? Digitally on the PS Store.

It's totally unreasonable to have worldwide numbers of 75% digital sales in PS5 yet keep thinking in Japan it's a 10/15% as in the Vita and early PS4 times. And it's willingly blind to see phisical games in shambles worldwide, with stores reducing their games selecting and shelves space to a minimum and project an illusion that in Japan phisical games are somehow keeping ground. If they are, it's a small percentage of difference.

Famitsu has become nearly irrelevant in the game tracking, not tracking digital or online stores. Do you really believe with 33 million Switch out there the combined sales of the Top 10 isn't even 100k most weeks? Of course not.

Beautiful post.

It comes down to a lack of critical thinking and people relying on data when the data is bad.

I remember my bosses boss at a job once asked me to run a report on how many IT tickets contractors had to submit in their first like month at the job and what the SLAs were for these employees.

I explained to them that it couldn't be done and they asked someone else to run the report.

The problem? We weren't accurately tracking what was actually considered a contractor or if the requests came from them directly or their managers, not to mention massive skews in SLAs because technicians weren't focused on closing tickets accurately.

Bad data is bad data... and should be ignored not parsed and extrapolated against.

 

[Woopah]

Just to answer you on those questions.

Ahmad spoke precisely on the PS platform, saying the perception of PS owners in Japan weren't buying games was heavily skewed, most games sell already "well above 50%" digital at launch.

And as time pass, there's no more phisical reprints, not even The Best anymore, while the game remains always available digital. So the percentage increases.

The only time we have had some leaks of Media Create numbers was with the yearly Top 1 in 2021 (released in 2022) and some leak about some FF numbers last year. Numbers were like 25% higher on average compared Famitsu. So even in phisical there's a reasonable doubt Famitsu is doing a great job. For starters, they don't track Amazon. Jp. Sure, they may have an estimate on how much it must be selling on amazon, but is it accurate?

Gachas and F2P games are big in Japan, specially the Mihoyo ones, but your last question is very easy to answer. Where are most Japanese PS gamers buying games? Digitally on the PS Store.

It's totally unreasonable to have worldwide numbers of 75% digital sales in PS5 yet keep thinking in Japan it's a 10/15% as in the Vita and early PS4 times. And it's willingly blind to see phisical games in shambles worldwide, with stores reducing their games selecting and shelves space to a minimum and project an illusion that in Japan phisical games are somehow keeping ground. If they are, it's a small percentage of difference.

Famitsu has become nearly irrelevant in the game tracking, not tracking digital or online stores. Do you really believe with 33 million Switch out there the combined sales of the Top 10 isn't even 100k most weeks? Of course not.

We get Media Create numbers every year, 2024's should be out soon

Also I don't think any reasonable person is thinking PS5 has the same digital ratio as the Vita. As Ahmad said, the digital ratio is lower in Japan on average but there's still plenty of PS5 games with over 50% digital ratio.

For the platform as a whole, it's total software sales since launch could have a 70% or 75% digital ratio.

 

[Woopah]

For the fiscal year, 76% of full game software titles sold were digital. Japan represents like 9% of PS5's sold... That's 24% digital.

The highest Japan could be in terms of physical to digital is probably around 38%.

Charts that tell us at most 40% of the market (but could vary wildly on a per game basis) isn't as helpful as you're suggesting.

Even if the market is 25% physical and 75% digital, knowing how big the 25% is very useful.

DQ III sold around 230k on PS5 in 2024 (we can update with Media Create when we get it). It's digital ratio is probably somewhere between 40% and 75%.

That means it's total sales in 2024 are likely somewhere between 383k and 920k (though from other data we have I'd wager it's on the lower half of that spectrum)

That gives us a rough idea of how the game itself sold, and also puts a cap on how high other games sold digitally on PS5 in 2024.

Without Famitsu, the game could have sold 50,000 or 1.5 million on PS5 for all we know. Without Famitsu, we could think that Palworld or Black Myth Wukong could have sold over a million in Japan last year.

While not perfect by a long shot, physical data still gives useful insights.

 

[Gambit2483]

I think a handheld that can play the full PS4/PS5 library (excluding VR) would do very well in all regions if they can get to the market quick enough and the price is "affordable".

I think the main issue for it is the longer it takes the more crowded the space will get. If they don't launch until sometime late like Q4 2027, they might miss their window.

PS5 home console will hit 10m in Japan. It has a lot of life left and many games yet to release.

I don't think it's as simple as "make a handheld ps4/ps5"...there's a lot of logistics and issues Sony would have to overcome first. Three of the biggest/main issues I can think of are..

Firstly there's the power to battery usage they would have to solve. Nintendo is only using 10w while it's competitors are using 2x to 4x as much and getting just as much or less playtime out of it. That's not easy (or cheap) to do while maintaining something that's just as powerful as a PS5.

Then of course there's the cost. Anything more than $500 is immediately out of the mass market range, for a handheld. I somehow doubt Sony could get a portable that powerful that "cheap" unless they were losing a LOT on each unit sold. For a portable that might not be something they could really afford.

And lastly, what format does this take and how/can you transfer your current library? Is it digital only? If so, if would need a crapton of storage to actually be beneficial and handheld storage options are typically way more expensive than console, esp if you're handling games with huge data sizes. Nintendo is already using Micro SD Express and 1TB can cost you over $200. There are many PS5 games that are over 70GB alone in size. This thing would be an extremely costly endeavor for the storage solutions alone. People want very fast transfer speeds that they experience on PS5 and those kinds of portable options aren't exactly cheap.

Also, if you already own a PS4/5 game in your library, can you transfer it to the portable? If not this thing could be DOA. Not too many would be keen on rebuying their entire library all over again.

I'm not saying these issues don't have solutions but it's something Sony would seriously have to consider and solve for this thing to be an actual viable product. It's just not as simple and easy as taking a PS5 and "shrink it down and slap a screen on it".

 

[Mibu no ookami]

That means it's total sales in 2024 are likely somewhere between 383k and 920k (though from other data we have I'd wager it's on the lower half of that spectrum)

That you think 383K and 920K are anywhere in the same ballpark is crazy to me and I know you're smarter than that.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

I don't think it's as simple as "make a handheld ps4/ps5"...there's a lot of logistics and issues Sony would have to overcome first. Three of the biggest/main issues I can think of are..

Firstly there's the power to battery usage they would have to solve. Nintendo is only using 10w while it's competitors are using 2x to 4x as much and getting just as much or less playtime out of it. That's not easy (or cheap) to do while maintaining something that's just as powerful as a PS5.

I don't think anyone suggested it would be as powerful as a PS5, rather that it could play PS5 games that are modified to play on it at lower resolutions and maybe lower framerates.

At least 70% of PS5 games have PS4 cross gen version that could be played without patching, so the games that need to be patched are in that 30% potentially. That's not a huge lift, especially when a good percentage of those games are in-house.

Then of course there's the cost. Anything more than $500 is immediately out of the mass market range, for a handheld. I somehow doubt Sony could get a portable that powerful that "cheap" unless they were losing a LOT on each unit sold. For a portable that might not be something they could really afford.

For increased market share/TAM, I think Sony will be willing to sell at a loss, especially if they're selling the console for profit, especially the PS5 Pro.

And lastly, what format does this take and how/can you transfer your current library? Is it digital only? If so, if would need a crapton of storage to actually be beneficial and handheld storage options are typically way more expensive than console, esp if you're handling games with huge data sizes. Nintendo is already using Micro SD Express and 1TB can cost you over $200. There are many PS5 games that are over 70GB alone in size. This thing would be an extremely costly endeavor for the storage solutions alone. People want very fast transfer speeds that they experience on PS5 and those kinds of portable options aren't exactly cheap.

I guarantee that Sony's handheld will come with at least 1TB of onboard storage. That's significant enough flexibility for a handheld and for those who want additional space MicroSDEX.

Also, if you already own a PS4/5 game in your library, can you transfer it to the portable? If not this thing could be DOA. Not too many would be keen on rebuying their entire library all over again.

I'm not saying these issues don't have solutions but it's something Sony would seriously have to consider and solve for this thing to be an actual viable product. It's just not as simple and easy as taking a PS5 and "shrink it down and slap a screen on it".

I mean this isn't even an issue. How did I "transfer" my PS4 games to my PS5? I just downloaded them... Digital games likely would have entitlement and obviously physical wouldn't.

Nothing you said is really an issue here.

 

[IAmRei]

I guess that's because sony is too western taste than their home market.
in 2023, i ask japanese gamedev, and he said, even though (at the time) steam is only 2-5%, they are rising fast nowadays.

i once saw japanese sony ads, and thinking, if as simple as ads, they are not so japanese, how they could fight better?
japan left sony in current state, because sony is too western in these decades, younger people flocking in mobile and steam,
of course nintendo still strong there, as they covers lot of japan needs, especially portability.

when i travel in TGS in 2023 - 2024, i saw the voucher of nintendo dominated convenience store more than sony.
if sony doesn't reduce the price and crank up software that attract many japanese, they won't see better situation soon.

 

[Woopah]

That you think 383K and 920K are anywhere in the same ballpark is crazy to me and I know you're smarter than that.

I never said they are in the same ballpark. I said the range is made way narrower by having Famitsu / Media Create. I think you can reasonably narrow that range further, because a game like DQIII is unlikely to have a 75% digital ratio.

My point was that even if you do use a wide digital range, we still get a lot of very useful insights from physical data. These useful insights are not "borderline worthless".

To give another couple of examples:

• Knowing that Hundred Line Defence has sold 30k physical means we can be fairly certain it's sold less than 100k in total.
• Knowing that Dragon's Dogma 2 sold 95k physical in 2024 means we can be fairly certain it sold less than 400k digital copies that year. So that puts a cap on the digital sales for every PS5 game that ranked below it on the PS Store unit charts.

It's better to know these things than to have absolutely no idea how games sold.

 

[Woopah]

I guess that's because sony is too western taste than their home market.
in 2023, i ask japanese gamedev, and he said, even though (at the time) steam is only 2-5%, they are rising fast nowadays.

i once saw japanese sony ads, and thinking, if as simple as ads, they are not so japanese, how they could fight better?
japan left sony in current state, because sony is too western in these decades, younger people flocking in mobile and steam,
of course nintendo still strong there, as they covers lot of japan needs, especially portability.

when i travel in TGS in 2023 - 2024, i saw the voucher of nintendo dominated convenience store more than sony.
if sony doesn't reduce the price and crank up software that attract many japanese, they won't see better situation soon.

It has very little to do with Sony having "too Western taste".

On PS1/PS2, Sony had great selling games from both Western and Japanese developers. Those series have declined in popularity since then, but Sony is still publishing a good amount of games that do decently in Japan (even if they don't hit the heights they reached on PS1/2), and of course Ghost of Tsushima was a major success.

PlayStation was always a third party driven platform, and its the decline in appeal of the third party games that hurt Sony more than the decline in appeal of the first party ones.

 

[Baemono]

They should advertise the PS Portal more, it would sell more PS5.

 

[Woopah]

They should advertise the PS Portal more, it would sell more PS5.

Hopefully Media Create can give us some details on how much it has sold.

But I'm expecting it to be quite niche in Japan. The Portal costs about the same as a Switch OLED.

 

[Baemono]

Hopefully Media Create can give us some details on how much it has sold.

But I'm expecting it to be quite niche in Japan. The Portal costs about the same as a Switch OLED.

Gosh you're right, 25k yen for the Portal, I don't undestand the reasoning behind it

 

[Woopah]

Gosh you're right, 25k yen for the Portal, I don't undestand the reasoning behind it

Its 35k yen now.

The reasoning is the depreciaiton of the yen. Back in 2020 $199 was around 20k yen. Now $199 is over 28k yen.

 

[Mibu no ookami]

My point was that even if you do use a wide digital range, we still get a lot of very useful insights from physical data. These useful insights are not "borderline worthless".

To give another couple of examples:

• Knowing that Hundred Line Defence has sold 30k physical means we can be fairly certain it's sold less than 100k in total.
• Knowing that Dragon's Dogma 2 sold 95k physical in 2024 means we can be fairly certain it sold less than 400k digital copies that year. So that puts a cap on the digital sales for every PS5 game that ranked below it on the PS Store unit charts.

It's better to know these things than to have absolutely no idea how games sold.

That's the thing though, you're assuming digital and physical games have the same sales patterns and much of what we see is that that isn't true.

Two games could come out the same month, one could chart higher than the other but one has better legs than the other especially because of pricing strategy.

You're trying too hard to extrapolate without observing underlying behaviors that would suggest that doing so is not a good idea.

SYNDUALITY Echo of Ada came out in January and is currently higher than Monster Hunter Wilds on the PSN JPN store.