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first apple-on-intel machines start shipping to devs

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fart

Savant
a hands-on was linked over at slashdot:

http://www.thinksecret.com/news/0506intelmac.html

Along with running Mac OS X, Windows XP installs without hitch on the Intel-based Mac, just as it would on any other PC, and booted without issue when installed on an NTFS-formatted partition.
i don't know if this means that they managed to dual boot, however..
also, rumblings on how they plan to stay proprietary...
Sources have indicated that Apple will employ an EDID chip on the motherboard of Intel-based Macs that Mac OS X will look for and must handshake with first in order to boot. Such an approach, similar to hardware dongles, could theoretically be defeated, although it's unknown what level of sophistication Apple will employ.
i don't know about you guys, but it sounds pretty hot to me. if they can push out a decent ultraportable, i think i've found my next non-ibm laptop
 
I typically don't care much about computer innovations and the like, but I'd buy one of those on day one (or when the bugs are worked out).
 

goomba

Banned
Thats silly of them, OSX has the potential to be a strong alternative to Windows.

Sell the Operating system as well as their own hardware.
 
goomba said:
Thats silly of them, OSX has the potential to be a strong alternative to Windows.

Sell the Operating system as well as their own hardware.

Who would buy Apple's hardware if you could build your own OSX machine for way cheaper?

I would also assume the OS wouldn't be as stable if they can't control what hardware is compatible.
 

Phoenix

Member
goomba said:
Why would Apple want to stop people from running their awesome operating system on Intel hardware?.

Quality control is a HUGE reason for it as well as Apple being a hardware company. They don't want someone to put a piece of shit machine together and have a bad experience because the OS doesn't (and has no intention to) properly support those parts.
 

fart

Savant
Phoenix said:
Quality control is a HUGE reason for it as well as Apple being a hardware company. They don't want someone to put a piece of shit machine together and have a bad experience because the OS doesn't (and has no intention to) properly support those parts.
i think this is much less of a problem than they make it out to be. yes, consumers do have a problem with distinguishing which company (hardware or software vendor, and WHICH of the individual vendors on either side) is crashing their program/erasing their data/not supporting their super dildomatic, but with very smart software, it is possible to give consumers some degree of choice while still keeping a tight-ish leash on their systems.

the fact is that proprietary hardware is apple's mandate primarily because it's MUCH easier profit than software sales, because of the competition (read: microsoft's oligarnolopoly) in the OS market and the size of the userbase right now.

yes, it would be harder support-wise to provide a consistent user experience on a truly open hardware platform, but what's really happening is jobs (who, remember, crushed the open PPC platform) is trying to keep the company as solvent as possible by milking the current, slowly shrinking, userbase while he tries to think up the next big thing (again and again and again).
 
fart said:
i think this is much less of a problem than they make it out to be. yes, consumers do have a problem with distinguishing which company (hardware or software vendor, and WHICH of the individual vendors on either side) is crashing their program/erasing their data/not supporting their super dildomatic, but with very smart software, it is possible to give consumers some degree of choice while still keeping a tight-ish leash on their systems.

the fact is that proprietary hardware is apple's mandate primarily because it's MUCH easier profit than software sales, because of the competition (read: microsoft's oligarnolopoly) in the OS market and the size of the userbase right now.

yes, it would be harder support-wise to provide a consistent user experience on a truly open hardware platform, but what's really happening is jobs (who, remember, crushed the open PPC platform) is trying to keep the company as solvent as possible by milking the current, slowly shrinking, userbase while he tries to think up the next big thing (again and again and again).

IAWTP!!!! Wow! Took the words right out of my head! Oh shit... I think I felt a tremor.......
 

SteveMeister

Hang out with Steve.
You guys STILL don't get it.

Since around 1977, Apple has been a hardware company. It's their business model. And while it is true that they only have a small percentage of the PC market, that still represents PLENTY of machines. They are NOT hurting for money. The biggest issue that was facing Apple was the dead end the G5 line seems to have reached, and they're solving that with a switch to Intel. They are not going to stop making hardware, because THEY DON'T NEED TO.

Now, if they start losing money hand over fist, they MAY revisit the idea of licensing OSX. But until and unless that happens, there is simply no reason for them to do so. They are a successful, thriving company without it.
 

fart

Savant
SteveMeister said:
You guys STILL don't get it.

Since around 1977, Apple has been a hardware company. It's their business model. And while it is true that they only have a small percentage of the PC market, that still represents PLENTY of machines. They are NOT hurting for money. The biggest issue that was facing Apple was the dead end the G5 line seems to have reached, and they're solving that with a switch to Intel. They are not going to stop making hardware, because THEY DON'T NEED TO.
there are always "issues" facing Apple. they're like the somethingawful of the computer industry. jobs is extremely stubborn, and obssessed with being visionary. i'm arguing that they do need to stop relying on their hardware profits because 1) it's limiting their userbase (really a no-brainer. but it sure does keep the margins high) and 2) so much prop. hardware makes it extraordinarily harder for them to take advantage of technology advances made by other companies. the combination of these two are almost perfectly embodied in the ppc deadend. volume was too small to fund chip dev at the pace apple needs to compete, and since they refused to release their x86 builds of X (which have been in lockstep with their ppc builds since the earliest days of rhapsody) because it would require the kind of 180 we're going to see now w/rt to their hardware dev and system integration, they were completely locked into the PPC arch.

as far as them having "plenty of money", apple's sales under jobs have always been marketing-driven. right now the company's big (and really, only) cash-cow is the iPod. before that it was the iMac, etc. etc. bottom-line, apple is a marketing-driven company, not a hardware-driven company. this is why apple sales always (and only) spike right after an expo.

Now, if they start losing money hand over fist, they MAY revisit the idea of licensing OSX. But until and unless that happens, there is simply no reason for them to do so. They are a successful, thriving company without it.
they're already licensing osx. they license it to you, and then you run it. that is the only licensing they can do with their OS. the issue previously was licensing the proprietary parts of their hardware platform. with the wintel move, the only proprietary parts of the hardware platform will be the devices they use to lock out users from installation on hardware they don't sell. it's possible they'll provide some added functionality with this stuff, but it's likely to be inconsequential, because ironically it's smartest for them, hardware development-wise, to stay as compatible as possible so they can take advantage of technology in the commodity pc hardware market.

as far as them losing money hand over fist, they do this regularly. jobs' solution has always been to push his newest idea for the next big thing, not to start engineering using open standards (this has happened only once or twice in the last five years - when they replaced the apple serial bus with usb and well, os x; note that both have been big wins).
 

Phoenix

Member
fart said:
i think this is much less of a problem than they make it out to be. yes, consumers do have a problem with distinguishing which company (hardware or software vendor, and WHICH of the individual vendors on either side) is crashing their program/erasing their data/not supporting their super dildomatic, but with very smart software, it is possible to give consumers some degree of choice while still keeping a tight-ish leash on their systems.

No its not. Why? Because Apple writes most of the drivers or is responsible for driver integration in the OS. To do better at this Apple would need to grow massively their in-house OS teams to support 3rd party hardware. Guess what - that doesn't make good business sense for a company which makes most of its margins on selling hardware. You talk about Apple giving people choice, but choice for what? For buying hardware from somewhere else? Yeah I can just imagine the middle manager sitting there saying "hey we should spend our profits so that we can make less money on hardware" and then being promptly led out of the building. Apple has shown no signs that they are interested in leaving the hardware business because unlike some of the roadkill PC makers like Gateway, Apple is actually making a lot of money doing it.


the fact is that proprietary hardware is apple's mandate primarily because it's MUCH easier profit than software sales, because of the competition (read: microsoft's oligarnolopoly) in the OS market and the size of the userbase right now.

Actually no it isn't and you should slap whomever told you that. Software is significantly easier to profit from than hardware. Want a stupidly easy example - Office is $300-500 bucks per seat. Office core hasn't changed significantly in almost a decade, yet Microsoft has been amortizing the shit out of that original development effort. Each hardware product has a much more expensive product development cycle and requires taking on expensive inventory. It shouldn't take an economics class to see that :)

yes, it would be harder support-wise to provide a consistent user experience on a truly open hardware platform, but what's really happening is jobs (who, remember, crushed the open PPC platform) is trying to keep the company as solvent as possible by milking the current, slowly shrinking, userbase while he tries to think up the next big thing (again and again and again).

Unfortunately you're incorrect. Apple's userbase is growing - its just dwarfed by the growth rate of the pc market. Quarter over quarter Apple has been able to sell more hardware than the hardware before. (http://www.forbes.com/markets/2005/06/23/0623automarketscan02.html)

there are always "issues" facing Apple. they're like the somethingawful of the computer industry. jobs is extremely stubborn, and obssessed with being visionary. i'm arguing that they do need to stop relying on their hardware profits because 1) it's limiting their userbase (really a no-brainer. but it sure does keep the margins high)

Its sad that people think that its always in a companies best interest to increase their market share. Its the same logic that led to the foolishness of the dot com era where people did 'whatever was necessary' in order to increase their marketshare. Next time you're near a Lexus dealership, go debate with them the merits of building a 17K vehicle so they can increase their marketshare. Next time you're with an economist, ask them about the Jaguar brand and the absolute disaster that happened when they tried to increase their marketshare :)

and 2) so much prop. hardware makes it extraordinarily harder for them to take advantage of technology advances made by other companies. the combination of these two are almost perfectly embodied in the ppc deadend. volume was too small to fund chip dev at the pace apple needs to compete, and since they refused to release their x86 builds of X (which have been in lockstep with their ppc builds since the earliest days of rhapsody) because it would require the kind of 180 we're going to see now w/rt to their hardware dev and system integration, they were completely locked into the PPC arch.

No, every move they've made has been a choice. At any point they could choose to take on any other technologies, or they could simply pioneer their own. Apple has been the first in many areas of the PC space and has been driving its larger competitors and not vice versa.


as far as them having "plenty of money", apple's sales under jobs have always been marketing-driven. right now the company's big (and really, only) cash-cow is the iPod. before that it was the iMac, etc. etc. bottom-line, apple is a marketing-driven company, not a hardware-driven company. this is why apple sales always (and only) spike right after an expo.

Who DOESN'T have sales that are marketing-driven? If someone doesn't know about your product, the shit won't sell. Apple is not a marketing driven company, and that doesn't even make sense. Apple doesn't make money from marketing, they make money from products they sell - those products are both hardware AND software. Apple is and always has been a platform of both hardware and software, each driving each other. Apple's sales spike after an expo because, get this, new products get announced at an expo!
 

fart

Savant
you have a lot of good points phoenix, i left a lot of openings and i don't think i was quite clear enough, but...

Phoenix said:
No its not. Why? Because Apple writes most of the drivers or is responsible for driver integration in the OS. To do better at this Apple would need to grow massively their in-house OS teams to support 3rd party hardware. Guess what - that doesn't make good business sense for a company which makes most of its margins on selling hardware. You talk about Apple giving people choice, but choice for what? For buying hardware from somewhere else? Yeah I can just imagine the middle manager sitting there saying "hey we should spend our profits so that we can make less money on hardware" and then being promptly led out of the building. Apple has shown no signs that they are interested in leaving the hardware business because unlike some of the roadkill PC makers like Gateway, Apple is actually making a lot of money doing it.
you're right, to a point. if we look at it as a bipolarity:

either) apple supplies all the hardware, restricts their software to exclusively apple hardware

or) apple supplies no hardware, lets vendors drive the hardware market, attempts 100% compatibility with as many hardware vendors as humanly possible

we can agree that apple's current business model is much closer to the former than the latter, and that's why they write most of the hardware drivers and are largely responsible for integration. it's also why they depend on hardware sales, because the scale isn't big enough on their software, and without the scale, their hardware margins end up generating more revenue (+ they give out a ton of their software for free).

this doesn't have to be the way it works. however, i guess it is hard to argue that they could continue on as a system vendor if they opened up the hardware. i guess the point is that they don't have to be a system vendor, and looking forward, i would even argue that it's not the best plan. why? sun, maybe? i don't mean that to be a direct, concrete analogy (ie, LOOK AT SUN! THEY'RE DOOMED! APPLE = SUN!), but a definite warning on the dangers of trying to compete in what is ultimately a very open market with a closed platform.

Actually no it isn't and you should slap whomever told you that. Software is significantly easier to profit from than hardware. Want a stupidly easy example - Office is $300-500 bucks per seat. Office core hasn't changed significantly in almost a decade, yet Microsoft has been amortizing the shit out of that original development effort. Each hardware product has a much more expensive product development cycle and requires taking on expensive inventory. It shouldn't take an economics class to see that :)
oh, i know this, and i shouldn't have implied that software is easier profit in general, but i am arguing that it's easier profit for apple (just as it was for sun). microsoft's core products (read: windows, office) benefit primarily from massive scale and entrenchment. without the massive scale and entrenchment of microsoft in its software, apple just doesn't stand to make anywhere near the amount a vendor like microsoft or say, adobe, makes, because, even if they up the margins a bit, software is still a smaller ticket item, so the sheer bulk of revenue per unit is bound to be lower. hardware is an easier profit to make for apple (and in some other situations - like custom hardware) because it's a captive market so they can up the margins over the market average and it's a bigger ticket item, so more per unit revenue. (also note that since apple software is really quite good, their dev costs probably tend to clobber their scale)

(note that i did say that proprietary hardware was much easier profit. if you pick nits by attaching the proprietary to the hardware, this is fairly true. it's a good way to make a quick buck if you have anyone attached (ie, captive) to whatever special service or functionality your proprietaryness provides. in apple's case, it's been media producers. you can raise your margins, attach hidden costs, have very little if any direct competition, and because it's hardware, the price tag tends to be larger -> more revenue per unit).

Unfortunately you're incorrect. Apple's userbase is growing - its just dwarfed by the growth rate of the pc market. Quarter over quarter Apple has been able to sell more hardware than the hardware before.
i meant market share, sorry, not cardinality of userbase. iirc the mac platform's marketshare has been steadily decreasing at least since jobs took over again. actually, if anyone could find real statistics on this, that would be awesome.

Its sad that people think that its always in a companies best interest to increase their market share. Its the same logic that led to the foolishness of the dot com era where people did 'whatever was necessary' in order to increase their marketshare. Next time you're near a Lexus dealership, go debate with them the merits of building a 17K vehicle so they can increase their marketshare. Next time you're with an economist, ask them about the Jaguar brand and the absolute disaster that happened when they tried to increase their marketshare :)
this is the scale vs per unit price argument again. my argument is and has always been that personal computers are not and will never be the kind of big ticket brand driven product that cars are, no matter how bad a company (or marketer like jobs) tries to make them into one. i think, and industry trends would seem to back me up on this, that computing devices will be commoditized over the long run no matter what sneaky tricks you try to pull. they simply aren't items with a big enough price tag attached to them, and there's too much incentive and too few barriers to making them smaller, cheaper, and faster as quickly as possible (people need the cycles to live and there's no appreciable limit to how many cycles we can shove into each millisecond as a computing population).

as far as the dot-com era is concerned.. it's apples and oranges. the dot-com marketshare was a manufactured content thing and a completely different argument.

the bottom line is that anyone trying to make a bmw or jaguar of computers (and clearly, there are people trying), is bound to fail.

No, every move they've made has been a choice. At any point they could choose to take on any other technologies, or they could simply pioneer their own. Apple has been the first in many areas of the PC space and has been driving its larger competitors and not vice versa.
lately they've been largely driven (in the hardware space) by other companies. also, in the past, there are definitely some things that didn't quite... catch on... (mass market scsi?)

Who DOESN'T have sales that are marketing-driven? If someone doesn't know about your product, the shit won't sell.
ok, sorry! i didn't mean it this way! :lol
Apple doesn't make money from marketing, they make money from products they sell - those products are both hardware AND software. Apple is and always has been a platform of both hardware and software, each driving each other. Apple's sales spike after an expo because, get this, new products get announced at an expo!
what i meant is that apple products sell in large part because they are EXTREMELY well marketed, aesthetically very well designed (there is a marketing component and motivation for this) and not necessarily because they're superior. they tend to be more expensive (larger margins drive a larger marketing budget), and less featureful than their competitors.

again, my motivation for pointing out the classic apple sales cycle is that apple as a company seems to be obssessed with technological aesthetics and not solid engineering (have you ever had the displeasure of using a first generation imac for an extended period of time?). solid engineering makes small incremental changes. technological aesthetics dictate a revolution every six months.
 

shantyman

WHO DEY!?
fart said:
...and less featureful than their competitors.

I totally disagree with this statement. I won't argue the fact that components in Macs ae not always the fastest, but their hardware does not lack features. Every machine they make has firewire for example. Optical mice were standard in Macs before most PC manufacturers. Bluetooth is standard in a lot of their machines. That sort of thing.
 

Phoenix

Member
fart said:
this doesn't have to be the way it works. however, i guess it is hard to argue that they could continue on as a system vendor if they opened up the hardware. i guess the point is that they don't have to be a system vendor, and looking forward, i would even argue that it's not the best plan. why? sun, maybe? i don't mean that to be a direct, concrete analogy (ie, LOOK AT SUN! THEY'RE DOOMED! APPLE = SUN!), but a definite warning on the dangers of trying to compete in what is ultimately a very open market with a closed platform.

You'd be okay - if it weren't for the fact that Sun ALSO sells Intel hardware based solutions. No, Sun's problems come from incompetent management, absolutely no vision whatsoever, and holding onto a hardware division that is LOSING money. Apple has a hardware division that is making money AND a variety of software groups which are also making money. Change at this time is unnecessary and so they can stay the course and continue to be profitable. Growing too fast too quickly, especially for Apple, would be a mistake. Their stock and much of their future rests on the fact that investors are only looking at their revenue. Moving into a software model over a hardware model doesn't necessarily increase those revenues. Good example - Sega or Gateway or IBM or . Their move into a software model which has absurdly higher margins than their money losing hardware business didn't save them. They are still just as screwed as they've always been.


oh, i know this, and i shouldn't have implied that software is easier profit in general, but i am arguing that it's easier profit for apple (just as it was for sun). microsoft's core products (read: windows, office) benefit primarily from massive scale and entrenchment. without the massive scale and entrenchment of microsoft in its software, apple just doesn't stand to make anywhere near the amount a vendor like microsoft or say, adobe, makes, because, even if they up the margins a bit, software is still a smaller ticket item, so the sheer bulk of revenue per unit is bound to be lower. hardware is an easier profit to make for apple (and in some other situations - like custom hardware) because it's a captive market so they can up the margins over the market average and it's a bigger ticket item, so more per unit revenue. (also note that since apple software is really quite good, their dev costs probably tend to clobber their scale)

Hardware products are like pancakes, anyone can make 'em. With hardware - especially commodity use case hardware, you always run the risk of other players who have the ability to out volume you simply driving you out of business. You want to see Apple die within 5 years, let Dell have the abillity to make Macs. Dell lives on razor thin margins. They HAVE to sell large volumes just to be in the same profit area. If Apple opened their Intel based OSX platform for other people to use, Apple's hardware business would be dead - guaranteed. This is why this is one of the riskiest moves Jobs has ever made with Apple. In the relative security of the PowerPC space, he didn't have to worry about other players trying to stock Mac components in order to compete. In the Intel/AMD space people will be able to build ludicrously cheaper machines at high volumes that Apple will die trying to achieve. With OSX 'open', Dell would start cranking out 10s of thousands of units immediately. Apple would have to compete on price just to stay in the space.

i meant market share, sorry, not cardinality of userbase. iirc the mac platform's marketshare has been steadily decreasing at least since jobs took over again. actually, if anyone could find real statistics on this, that would be awesome.

We don't need stats on that - its pretty much a given. The cheaper Intel PCs get, the more of them sell the larger the market, the smaller Apple's share - despite the fact that they sell more and more units.

this is the scale vs per unit price argument again. my argument is and has always been that personal computers are not and will never be the kind of big ticket brand driven product that cars are, no matter how bad a company (or marketer like jobs) tries to make them into one.

Selling more units at a cheap volume vs selling less units at expensive volume is really the question.

i think, and industry trends would seem to back me up on this, that computing devices will be commoditized over the long run no matter what sneaky tricks you try to pull. they simply aren't items with a big enough price tag attached to them, and there's too much incentive and too few barriers to making them smaller, cheaper, and faster as quickly as possible (people need the cycles to live and there's no appreciable limit to how many cycles we can shove into each millisecond as a computing population).

Unfortuantely the trends don't support you because for all the mistakes that Apple is apparently making - they care increasingly more and more profitable! They will continue to sell more and more hardware - and actually their next line of OSX boxes are likely to do even better than the lines before.

the bottom line is that anyone trying to make a bmw or jaguar of computers (and clearly, there are people trying), is bound to fail.

That's just foolishness. A computer is just like a console - it is a platform on which to do things. If your platform is compelling, more people will buy it - if it offers nothing compelling fewer people will buy it. I can pretty much state that Mac users don't really care about Apple's hardware - they care about the platform (not just the software). As Apple is able to deliver more of that platform to people, their marketshare will grow.


lately they've been largely driven (in the hardware space) by other companies. also, in the past, there are definitely some things that didn't quite... catch on... (mass market scsi?)

In which respects? The last major things to go into PCs were DVD Drives, DVD burners, Bluetooth and HD laptop screens. These all shipped on a Mac first.

ok, sorry! i didn't mean it this way! :lol
what i meant is that apple products sell in large part because they are EXTREMELY well marketed, aesthetically very well designed (there is a marketing component and motivation for this) and not necessarily because they're superior. they tend to be more expensive (larger margins drive a larger marketing budget), and less featureful than their competitors.

IF if were just an arbitrary piece of hardware, then sure - that would be true.
 

fart

Savant
Phoenix said:
You'd be okay - if it weren't for the fact that Sun ALSO sells Intel hardware based solutions. No, Sun's problems come from incompetent management, absolutely no vision whatsoever, and holding onto a hardware division that is LOSING money.
agreed. what is instructive about sun is that they sell extremely high margin boxes in relatively low volume (that's not totally true, the only thing they really sell in any volume now is their intel-based blades, as you said). the division is/was set up so that it will make a ton of money as long as they're selling in a relatively viable market. the monolithic server market took a huge dump, and now their sales model doesn't work so well. i don't think apple is another sun, nor is it guaranteed to hit a similar roadblock, but sun is a very good example of why the high margin low volume thing isn't necessarily a good model to hold onto.

Good example - Sega or Gateway or IBM or . Their move into a software model which has absurdly higher margins than their money losing hardware business didn't save them. They are still just as screwed as they've always been.
:lol i guess this is proof that sega is relevant to just about any discussion of failed business models.

i didn't actually know that gateway moved to a software business model. i don't follow ibm's financials either. i only know that they abandoned their pc business (and the drive business) a while ago.

you're right in that apple has found enough niches to keep their hardware business alive and growing (...for now). my gripe is as much existential as anything, but i don't believe the platform _should_ be constrained to boutique pc sales. the os x team has really managed to put together a superior os, again, and it's such a shame that it's so inaccessible to the average consumer due to what i see as practically unecessary hardware exclusivity.
If Apple opened their Intel based OSX platform for other people to use, Apple's hardware business would be dead - guaranteed.
yes, i think they would ultimately have to abandon their box pc business if they opened up the platform.
This is why this is one of the riskiest moves Jobs has ever made with Apple. In the relative security of the PowerPC space, he didn't have to worry about other players trying to stock Mac components in order to compete.
this is because he made the decision to cut off the platform licenses in '98 or so. apple is not prepared to do business on the kind of open market that would expand their market share because over the years, time and time again, jobs has refused to allow them to face that situation either by sneaky tricks or refusal to change. this is the crux of my argument - that a change in business model to lessen reliance on box pc sales will ultimately be the better choice (though it would clearly hurt in the short term). i don't believe that iThings are as sustainable in the long-long-term as jobs thinks they are.

now here, i'm very definitely playing armchair ceo. feel free to fire away.
Selling more units at a cheap volume vs selling less units at expensive volume is really the question.
well, i'm of the opinion that computing devices are going the way of the former. devices are getting smaller, and they're multiplying in terms of sheer volume. you can't keep selling them as monolithic, big-ticket items. even mp3 players won't be high margin units very very soon.
Unfortuantely the trends don't support you because for all the mistakes that Apple is apparently making - they care increasingly more and more profitable! They will continue to sell more and more hardware - and actually their next line of OSX boxes are likely to do even better than the lines before.
i think it would be interesting to pick apart apple's financials for the last five years or so to see exactly where the money is coming from. my intuition says that apple's "core business" of selling towers has not been growing as quickly as apple's reported profit, and that worries me.
I can pretty much state that Mac users don't really care about Apple's hardware - they care about the platform (not just the software).
actually, i think this is what's foolish. the myopic "mac user" paradigm is ironically what's holding the platform back. computers are clearly just tools, and the computing consumer (the every-user) is just looking for an appropriate tool. mac os is an appropriate tool for a very larger number of consumers imo, but the devices apple sells are just.. not

(in particular what bugs me most is the way apple does the kind of marketing-engineering that car manufacturers are famous for. so, you want widget X on your car/apple computer? well, then you have to trade up from model ghettoblaster to model hoosierblaster, that'll be a couple point increase in margins on our part and maybe a slightly fancier box (an aero kit or an extra processor maybe?). engineering-wise widget X costs 20 bucks to manufacture, and the dealer could do the install in 15 minutes)

sure, there are some platform devotees who don't care either way, but what's the point of engineering a fantastically great os if only the devotees who are willing to jump through a forest of red tape will ever use it.

The last major things to go into PCs were DVD Drives, DVD burners, Bluetooth and HD laptop screens. These all shipped on a Mac first.
these devices were all available for wintel platform hardware first (except for the HD laptop screens? i'm not sure what you're referring to here). just because the large system integrators took a little while longer to package them into the machines does not mean that they were unavailable to the platform users. also, these are all features that shipped with the marketing-engineering i mentioned above. they were only available to platform users who shelled out for the top-end models.

i guess the bottom-bottom-line is that everyone agrees that apple is in a very good place right now, and jobs/the company just made a very good choice in switching processors (and hence hardware platforms (nominally), since they'd already adopted most of the rest of the platform). i do think that they should greatly de-emphasize their hardware business from here and either license the boxes or open them up (since they're probably going to be commodity hardware with a trick piece of ID). while i think this would affect profits negatively in the short run i think it's the right choice in the long run. i'm just not as confident as you are that their limited box business will maintain itself for as long as you think it will.
 

Phoenix

Member
fart said:
i don't think apple is another sun, nor is it guaranteed to hit a similar roadblock, but sun is a very good example of why the high margin low volume thing isn't necessarily a good model to hold onto.

But there are tons of people who thrive in that arena. There is always room for a niche high price, low volume player. Just looking across my desk I see some monster cable. Would you argue that Monster cable is in dire straits? I've also got on my desk a Wacom tablet - there are certainly people making MUCH cheaper competing products. In the router space there are certainly Netgear and Linksys products which can do the job of much more expensive Cisco products. Its not about price. If you have a product/service that people want that they can't get any other way in their margin competitors - they will get it from you. That's just sound business strategy. You don't innovate to drive prices down - you innovate to slap margins on top of current prices.


you're right in that apple has found enough niches to keep their hardware business alive and growing (...for now). my gripe is as much existential as anything, but i don't believe the platform _should_ be constrained to boutique pc sales.

When they are ready to switch to a pure software model and go up against Microsoft again (which they are absolutely not ready to do), and deal with fiercer competition against their nacent server business - then they can make that move. Right now would be a terrible time for Apple to make large sweeping changes because they would become a victim of their own success. What would be 'good for consumers - i.e people who want the Walmart model applied to everything' would destroy them, without question. Once all their software runs on Intel, and their third parties are ready for Intel, and they raise the price on all their software (the big catch, because software for OSX is dirt cheap), THEN they can start planning to spin off their hardware business. I think they are at least 10 years from even being able to consider that.

the os x team has really managed to put together a superior os, again, and it's such a shame that it's so inaccessible to the average consumer due to what i see as practically unecessary hardware exclusivity.

What makes it so inaccessible? That you can't install it on the machine you already own?

this is the crux of my argument - that a change in business model to lessen reliance on box pc sales will ultimately be the better choice (though it would clearly hurt in the short term). i don't believe that iThings are as sustainable in the long-long-term as jobs thinks they are.

"long term" is a long time. In the long term even software driven business models will have issues. Seen the sales numbers on Office lately? What about uptake on new versions of WIndows? At some point you get to a situation where customers really have everything they need and they aren't compelled to upgrade unless you force them to as Microsoft does when the EOL their various products, or how they have forced mass site license upgrades on businesses for Office. The software model in the "long term" is just as dead end as the hardware model. We're getting to the point where 'new features' don't really add anything that people really need.

now here, i'm very definitely playing armchair ceo. feel free to fire away.
well, i'm of the opinion that computing devices are going the way of the former. devices are getting smaller, and they're multiplying in terms of sheer volume. you can't keep selling them as monolithic, big-ticket items. even mp3 players won't be high margin units very very soon.

They'll keep being high margin units because the price points are fairly well established. They will be able to create 'cheaper' markets based on old tech which gets cheaper to manufacture while being able to roll out innovation on new products. There are still MANY iThings and other personal electronic devices that need to be created. I'm waiting for someone competent to make a home media server, home automation server, a smartphone that doesn't suck in some way, etc. Making devices will always be a good business because there is always room for new products based on new technology. 10 years ago people were content with CRTs, now everyone is upgrading to plasma/LCD, and soon they'll upgrade to the next big thing. That's a good sustainable model for a hardware manu.

i think it would be interesting to pick apart apple's financials for the last five years or so to see exactly where the money is coming from. my intuition says that apple's "core business" of selling towers has not been growing as quickly as apple's reported profit, and that worries me.

Apple's money comes from its new innovative products through the quarters. Right now they are still making a ton of money on iPods and iTunes, they are making money on the new iMac line. Where they WERE making a LOT money but no longer are is in the laptop line. This is the primary reason for the Intel move (and not some of the other solutions). Once they have a chip that packs a lot of functionality, has excellent battery life, and is 'on par' with their other margin competitors - they will be able to ship volume again. Apple's hardware future IMO looks better in the face of being on an Intel proc. While the G5 still outperforms the current line of Intel procs in terms of raw math performance, that doesn't matter anymore. People buy machines based on what they can actually do "Final Cut, Garage Band, iLife apps, etc". Its really only those of us who are gamers who are concerned about spending $200 bucks for the extra 200 Mhz on a processor. But I digress, you can pull their S-10 filing and take a look.

actually, i think this is what's foolish. the myopic "mac user" paradigm is ironically what's holding the platform back. computers are clearly just tools, and the computing consumer (the every-user) is just looking for an appropriate tool. mac os is an appropriate tool for a very larger number of consumers imo, but the devices apple sells are just.. not

Mac OS is not a tool just like WIndows is not a tool. They don't really provide much on their own. Its the things you can do on top of them that make a difference. Apple baits you with dirt cheap software that is sexy and easy to use and 'just works' to spend an extra $150-$200 on their platform. Its similar to when you go to a fair and buy 0.25 cent popcorn and a $2.00 medium coke. The popcorn is just there to make you spend a shitload more on something else. That too is just good business.

sure, there are some platform devotees who don't care either way, but what's the point of engineering a fantastically great os if only the devotees who are willing to jump through a forest of red tape will ever use it.

WHat forest of red tape? That you can run the OS on the machine that you already own?

these devices were all available for wintel platform hardware first (except for the HD laptop screens? i'm not sure what you're referring to here). just because the large system integrators took a little while longer to package them into the machines does not mean that they were unavailable to the platform users. also, these are all features that shipped with the marketing-engineering i mentioned above. they were only available to platform users who shelled out for the top-end models.

They were "available" for everyone at the same time. They were integrated into shipping Mac platforms first.

i guess the bottom-bottom-line is that everyone agrees that apple is in a very good place right now, and jobs/the company just made a very good choice in switching processors (and hence hardware platforms (nominally), since they'd already adopted most of the rest of the platform).

I think Jobs has taken a HUGE risk with the company in this move. They will do all they can to mitigate that risk, but there is much that can go wrong in this move. Heaven forbid something happen to Jobs in the recent future, because the folks behind him on the totem pole are likely to do exactly what you suggest.... as they did before.... and that didn't exactly end well. That saw Apples marketshare decline from roughly 40% of the market to where it is now.


i do think that they should greatly de-emphasize their hardware business from here and either license the boxes or open them up (since they're probably going to be commodity hardware with a trick piece of ID). while i think this would affect profits negatively in the short run i think it's the right choice in the long run. i'm just not as confident as you are that their limited box business will maintain itself for as long as you think it will.

I think that would be a mistake. Apple would lose its identity in that world, it would end up in the current recessing software market (open source is doing a number on the software space right now) and be public enemy number one for the one software player who will do any illegal thing necessary to destroy competition for their software business - Microsoft. Apple is not in a position to take on Microsoft and won't be for some time. I think its also telling that Microsoft is currently in a mass diversification into the consume space through hardware. Microsoft sees the writing on the wall - they know they need a new place to make money other than software :)
 

tedtropy

$50/hour, but no kissing on the lips and colors must be pre-separated
Phoenix said:
I think its also telling that Microsoft is currently in a mass diversification into the consume space through hardware. Microsoft sees the writing on the wall - they know they need a new place to make money other than software :)

Microsoft has no long-term interest in the hardware market. The mantra has, and will always be, software is king. Anytime they dabble in hardware, it is only to advance their hold on the software market. It's made them a load of money thus far, and they know it'll only make more.

That aside, this is all good news. It's only a matter of time until a tweaked version of OS X is running on your run-of-the-mill PC.
 

Hitokage

Setec Astronomer
I think that would be a mistake. Apple would lose its identity in that world, it would end up in the current recessing software market (open source is doing a number on the software space right now) and be public enemy number one for the one software player who will do any illegal thing necessary to destroy competition for their software business - Microsoft.
Open Source taking a foothold isn't a cause but an effect of an already stagnant PC software market. Apple, on the other hand, has managed to keep its market alive.
 

Phoenix

Member
Hitokage said:
Open Source taking a foothold isn't a cause but an effect of an already stagnant PC software market. Apple, on the other hand, has managed to keep its market alive.

Depends on your point of view. As an OSS developer, I see it as a cause. JBoss, for example, wasn't created due to a stagnant PC software market - nor was Apache. These products were not effects of the PC software market.
 

Phoenix

Member
tedtropy said:
Microsoft has no long-term interest in the hardware market. The mantra has, and will always be, software is king. Anytime they dabble in hardware, it is only to advance their hold on the software market. It's made them a load of money thus far, and they know it'll only make more.

Microsoft's mantra now is "services are king". Their intention is to extract money from line of business (strong emphasis on web services) applications.

And Microsoft and the hardware group ARE interested in making hardware. Not just keyboards and mice and other such commodity hardware. They didn't delve into WebTV and Xbox from shits and grins :) Microsoft's diversification will require moving into the hardware space in order to keep their markets.
 

Hitokage

Setec Astronomer
Phoenix said:
Depends on your point of view. As an OSS developer, I see it as a cause. JBoss, for example, wasn't created due to a stagnant PC software market - nor was Apache. These products were not effects of the PC software market.
True, it does depend on the program, but generally speaking OSS has been filling gaps left by commecial software.. and by that I mean to includes shareware(which is dead on PC).
 

fart

Savant
Phoenix said:
THEN they can start planning to spin off their hardware business. I think they are at least 10 years from even being able to consider that.
i think they could start heading this direction in 5 years or less, honestly. the biggest roadblock is microsoft. admittedly this is a very big roadblock.
What makes it so inaccessible? That you can't install it on the machine you already own?
yes, the average user owns a wintel box because it's cheap and nominally functional.
"long term" is a long time. In the long term even software driven business models will have issues. Seen the sales numbers on Office lately? What about uptake on new versions of WIndows? At some point you get to a situation where customers really have everything they need and they aren't compelled to upgrade unless you force them to as Microsoft does when the EOL their various products, or how they have forced mass site license upgrades on businesses for Office. The software model in the "long term" is just as dead end as the hardware model. We're getting to the point where 'new features' don't really add anything that people really need.
excellent point. hence microsoft's move to services.
I'm waiting for someone competent to make a home media server, home automation server, a smartphone that doesn't suck in some way, etc. Making devices will always be a good business because there is always room for new products based on new technology. That's a good sustainable model for a hardware manu.
there's major competition in all these spaces. eventually the margins become razor thin, and it looks less and less sustainable. the drive market is an extreme example of this. yes, people will always need new drives. densities and rotational velocities keep going up, buses keep changing, and to top it off they're consumables, but they're an extremely hard market to make money on these days because of tiny tiny margins, large warranty costs, complexity of manufacturing, etc. not to mention putting one finger into every consumer electronics space that needs an apple-designed device is going to leave apple without the hands it needs in its core business.
Mac OS is not a tool just like WIndows is not a tool. They don't really provide much on their own.
it sounds like you've become a tad jaded with software. OS packages come with so much crap these days it's kind of ridiculous.
Apple baits you with dirt cheap software that is sexy and easy to use and 'just works' to spend an extra $150-$200 on their platform.
i don't buy into the sex appeal thing, and i think it's that kind of superficiality that breeds the appearance of being easy to use and 'just working' without enough solid engineering to back it up. there is a lot that is extremely powerful about os x, but it has little to do with being sexy (being sexy actually holds it back. remember the early days of aqua? the UI missteps are still there, and it's only because they look better).
WHat forest of red tape? That you can run the OS on the machine that you already own?
buying into an alternative hardware platform with a limited amount of customizability and only one primary vendor, etc. etc. all on top of the software retraining that's unavoidable.
Heaven forbid something happen to Jobs in the recent future, because the folks behind him on the totem pole are likely to do exactly what you suggest.... as they did before.... and that didn't exactly end well. That saw Apples marketshare decline from roughly 40% of the market to where it is now.
i think we can both agree that it was incompetent management and badly designed and marketed devices that were apple's downfall in the 90s. furthermore, the marketshare decline has continued through jobs re-reign. jobs has been keeping profits up as much through forced obsolescence, excellent marketing, and the ipod as it has through expanding the userbase.
open source is doing a number on the software space right now
re: cause and effect, OSS is not one or the other. OSS isn't going to crush the commercial software market, and it doesn't solely exist to take over for stagnant products. there's more of a symbiosis going on, imo.
Microsoft is currently in a mass diversification into the consume space through hardware. Microsoft sees the writing on the wall - they know they need a new place to make money other than software :)
ms does not plan to ever make money on their hardware units. they want to sell services through the hardware. like you said, the ms ship is aimed very squarely at selling services right now. the only other thing they're doing through hardware is, as usual, cultivating software sales by creating new markets (eg, the fingerprint scanners they're marketing right now).
 

Phoenix

Member
fart said:
there's major competition in all these spaces. eventually the margins become razor thin, and it looks less and less sustainable.

Show me a good, cheap, well built home media server :)

the drive market is an extreme example of this. yes, people will always need new drives. densities and rotational velocities keep going up, buses keep changing, and to top it off they're consumables, but they're an extremely hard market to make money on these days because of tiny tiny margins, large warranty costs, complexity of manufacturing, etc. not to mention putting one finger into every consumer electronics space that needs an apple-designed device is going to leave apple without the hands it needs in its core business.

And yet these companies keep making money and are profitable. If a hardware business model was a bad idea - no one would be in it.


it sounds like you've become a tad jaded with software. OS packages come with so much crap these days it's kind of ridiculous.

Show me the person who doesn't buy any software for their OS and I'll show you the person playing Solitaire or browsing the web all day. Most people need more than the core OS package can provide - that's just the way of things. An operating system is just the thing that makes everything else possible.

i don't buy into the sex appeal thing, and i think it's that kind of superficiality that breeds the appearance of being easy to use and 'just working' without enough solid engineering to back it up. there is a lot that is extremely powerful about os x, but it has little to do with being sexy (being sexy actually holds it back. remember the early days of aqua? the UI missteps are still there, and it's only because they look better).

There is a lot powerful about Darwin, the OS core, and about Linux and Solaris, and AIX, and even (heaven forbid) Irix - the irritating Unix. Hell there was a lot powerful about DOS back in the day. All of these systems were not really replaced by something more 'powerful' - and in many cases weren't even replaced by something more stable. They were replaced by sexier and easier to use products. Sexy and easy to use products attract the mainstream customer. The easier they are to use and the more attractive they are - the more consumers pick them up. Consumer psychology is just as important, perhaps even moreso, than the technology behind a product if you're trying to sell it. It is , in fact, one of the reasons why the 'better' product doesn't always win.


buying into an alternative hardware platform with a limited amount of customizability and only one primary vendor, etc. etc. all on top of the software retraining that's unavoidable.

If you don't want software retraining, then you don't want to run OSX and the discussion is moot.

re: cause and effect, OSS is not one or the other. OSS isn't going to crush the commercial software market, and it doesn't solely exist to take over for stagnant products. there's more of a symbiosis going on, imo.

I'd disagree with that. In software areas where OSS has filled the purpose of commercial equivalents (like Apache, Eclipse, JBoss, email servers, web browsers, directory servers, etc.), the commercial products simply don't sell (not well at any rate - there are still people willing to spend money on Opera for some reason :) )


ms does not plan to ever make money on their hardware units. they want to sell services through the hardware. like you said, the ms ship is aimed very squarely at selling services right now. the only other thing they're doing through hardware is, as usual, cultivating software sales by creating new markets (eg, the fingerprint scanners they're marketing right now).

Microsoft's hardware moves are squarely designed to keep people on the Microsoft platform. Its a necessary evil.
 

fart

Savant
Phoenix said:
And yet these companies keep making money and are profitable. If a hardware business model was a bad idea - no one would be in it.
actually i think the chinese companies are taking over the consumer electronics space (since they're manufacturing everything anyways, might as well grab the design portion of the business as well).
Show me the person who doesn't buy any software for their OS and I'll show you the person playing Solitaire or browsing the web all day.
i do development too! i swear to god i do! :lol
Sexy and easy to use products attract the mainstream customer. The easier they are to use and the more attractive they are - the more consumers pick them up. Consumer psychology is just as important, perhaps even moreso, than the technology behind a product if you're trying to sell it.
i'm perfectly fine with easy to use. i don't think sexy is also synonymous with easy to use in a product or as a design goal, though.
I'd disagree with that. In software areas where OSS has filled the purpose of commercial equivalents (like Apache, Eclipse, JBoss, email servers, web browsers, directory servers, etc.), the commercial products simply don't sell (not well at any rate - there are still people willing to spend money on Opera for some reason :) )
in areas where the OSS codebase was developed in response to a lack of mature solutions (and is thus extremely mature now), there's no question that the OSS package is a very serious competitor to commercial solutions. however, i don't see eg an OSS spreadsheet project written from the ground up starting tomorrow as being able to compete with excel's insane userbase in the next 5-6 years. maybe i'm being utopic but i think OS is achieving a less industry-centric goal of simply providing a way for communities of developers outside of a commercial framework to put software together that fills needs. whether the result competes with commercial products or supplements them is almost a non-issue.

maybe hito has something more to say about this.
 

Phoenix

Member
fart said:
in areas where the OSS codebase was developed in response to a lack of mature solutions (and is thus extremely mature now), there's no question that the OSS package is a very serious competitor to commercial solutions. however, i don't see eg an OSS spreadsheet project written from the ground up starting tomorrow as being able to compete with excel's insane userbase in the next 5-6 years.

I think in 5-6 years we will see the adoption of OpenOffice (which includes its on open source spreadsheet), Gnumeric, and similar only increase in use. Its all about reaching that 'minimum level of functionality'. Once you reach that, you pretty steadily start to erode the marketshare of competing products.

maybe i'm being utopic but i think OS is achieving a less industry-centric goal of simply providing a way for communities of developers outside of a commercial framework to put software together that fills needs. whether the result competes with commercial products or supplements them is almost a non-issue.

They most definitely compete. There is a reason why Microsoft is trying so hard to say open source is communist, to prevent the spread of Linux, and to keep companies from moving to OpenOffice (especially governments).
 
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