Lost scum wins with mafia so they would want Wee staying alive. They also want scum to notice them so they aren't night killed so if Salva is town I don't think it would be stupid for a lost scum to attempt to save Wee.
They're less valuable than scum without the chat and have to make sure they know who they are.
Given Scrafty had outted herself as a cop, there was basically 0 risk for the Lost Scum when voting for Weemad. Scum would be crazy not to take out the cop. I suspect we will lose Bronx tonight for much the same reason: he is confirmed town.
It also would not be the first time someone turned against their team to win solo. See: Makai getting town to lynch KK in DR so that Makai could become a neutral serial killer and win on his own. It pretty much depends on how ballsy the Lost Scum is feeling.
OK, so: the drinks and arsonist. If we assume their actions are limited to the table they're at, the list is thinned pretty quickly. Removing Launch (a provable claim) and dead people, those who were at Table 2 both days are:
AbsolutBro
roytheone (doused n1)
Ourobolus (doused n2)
Xam (drink n1)
CzarTim (drink n2)
Also assuming neither drink/arsonist can use their power on themselves, we're down to three potential suspects for each, with AbsolutBro pulling double duty. As far as I'm concerned, there's basically a 2/5 chance of getting rid of something bad if we pick from this group.
How is Launch's claim provable? His supposedly one-shot power is invisible to everyone. And claiming one-shot is a decent way to get scum not to kill you; generally someone is no longer a danger to scum after their one-shot power has gone off.
Also, apparently I keep some really, really bad company.
Anyway, my full thoughts on the arsonist, as promised in my other post.
We can safely say that arsonist is not a town role, since obviously mass killing a bunch of town isn't really a good thing. So that leaves us three options here:
1. The arsonist is Scum. I see this as the least likely, since it would be crazy powerful for a scum arsonist to not only be killing people at night, but dousing up townies for a bonefire. It effectively gives them two kills a night, with one delayed until boom-time.
2. The arsonist is the Lost Scum. I see this as the second least likely. On the one hand, it would make sense that the Lost Scum Arsonist knows who their scum partners are, so they don't douse them. OTOH, it would give a vindictive scum player a chance to douse all their allies and win on their own. It would be an offset to the "two kills per night" thing above. Also, that the normal scum don't know who the Lost Scum Arsonist is means that there is always the chance that Scum kill the Arsonist before they can strike the match, as it were.
3. The arsonist is Neutral. I'm inclined to believe this option is the case, only because options #1 and #2 basically form a Prisoner's Dilemma with gasoline. In this case, I would hazard the guess that the arsonist has to take X players with them, possibly in some combination of Scum and Town a la the Serial Killer from Night Vale who had to get either 3 Town or 2 Scum. If the Arsonist has an X person quota, I suspect we will find out on Day X+1 that this is the case.
I am not entirely ready to rule out our second dousee (Ouro) as the Arsonist, however. It is entirely possible that the Arsonist has to douse themselves. IF this is the case, I find it unlikely that Roytheone would announce being doused on D2. After all, the extra night of anonymity keeps Scum from worrying about the Arsonist. All that said, I admit I am only really putting this out there as a technical possibility. I don't really think Ouro is the Arsonist.
As to the Poisoner (I realize we don't know that it is poisoner, but "Drink-Giver" sounds stupid) , as I know I am neither the Arsonist or the Poisoner, I can safely find it hilarious that we have a crossover between the two: either the Arsonist doused the Poisoner, or the Poisoner gave the Arsonist a tainted drink. Possibly both.
going to eat dinner, back later
I think the arsonist is actively trying to hit town. Which would make sense, scum will be fine with an arsonist as long as none of them are doused. When the arso hits scum, scum will start hunting for them, which is not something a neutral wants. I am pretty sure the arsonist is trying to ally with scum.