I'm suspicious but you're joining me on the Ouro vote? Care to explain this hunch of yours?
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Gafia 2: The Bride of Gafia |Mafia OT| One Wedding, Many Funerals
- Thread starter RetroMG
- Start date
I'm suspicious but you're joining me on the Ouro vote? Care to explain this hunch of yours?
Your thoughts on Kalor Rnh or Burbeting?
Bananaspaceprincess
Neo Member
I had the similar thoughts when I read Kalors claim from yesterday. Why would someone claim a role like this? And even though he was around at the end of the day he did not cast a vote on Wee.He said he did not want to cause a tie but I don't know... maybe he just did not want to vote out a teammate.
Well, I guess it comes down to this: do we generally agree that the arsonist is probably either Czar or Absolut? If so, one of them is the best lynch. If we think that the arsonist is not necessarily limited to his table or that those two are unlikely, then trying to hit mafia is a better lynch as there are better odds there.
Well since you asked nicely.
First off, I'm not concerned that one of my suspcious characters is also voting Ouro, because you were the first one on him. There's no risk in that as a scum buddy.
My main reason is because I think night kills are definitely table-limited, and if we look at the possible killers on that table both days we come up with THIS:
Ty4on
Burbeting
Nin1000
Timeaisis
Fireblend
BananaSpacePrincess
Me (wahey!)
Out of those, I cross-checked them with vote patterns.
Ty4on - Fireblend (late), Kalor (late)
Burbeting - Absolut (early), Weemad (mid)
Nin1000 - Karu/Weemad (prod), Weemad (mid)
Timeaisis - Scrafty (early), Scrafty (early)
Fireblend - gryvan (prod), Salva (mid)
BananaSpacePrincess - gryvan (early)
Who's being "safest" with their votes? Both of you waste your vote on D1 with prods to avoid having to take a stand and both of you poke around a bit but ultimately jump to a lynch mid-train on D2. So, you went on my scum list.
What does any of this have to do with Ouro? Nothing, I just think he's probably mafia too.
Okay. I have no reason to not believe Xam's claim, as at least this claim is actually provable, unlike Launch's, Kalor's and Terrabyte's claims, which are still riding on our goodwill belief (I believe Launch & Terra for the record. Kalor, not so much.). Obviously the question rises if the fire-alarm power is town aligned or not, after what happened on Phoenix Wright I always feel a little wary about things. Still, I want to think Xam is town, at least.
Interesting to note is that if we assume that Arsonist is one of the four discussed earlier, all of the four are on the same table again.
Interesting to note is that if we assume that Arsonist is one of the four discussed earlier, all of the four are on the same table again.
LaunchpadMcQ
Banned
Wait, what was Kalors claim? I think I missed that
I'll drop Xam out of my top scum list, and add BananaSpacePrincess & Timeaisis for the tied third spot of "scummy fuckers". They are tied because they are both scummy for the same reason, standing on the sidelines and putting out some easy comments, without actually contributing much and actually engaging in conversation = blending deep.
He claimed even night commuter yesterday.
I feel quite confident he is talking bullshit.
LaunchpadMcQ
Banned
Oh, right right. I dismissed it as bullshit
It was bullshit that took him from vote leader position D2, though.
I could believe it commuter claimed some other role in order to make their actual power useful (to make scum actually try to kill them). Kalor didn't do that, he just claimed even night commuter right off the bat. ESPECIALLY since he claimed that on Day 2, which means that the next night was going to be a even night. If he were town, that would basically mean completely negating his power's usefulness.
And if Xam hadn't pulled the fire alarm, he would have been the lone suspect on one table.
There are flaws to that theory, but I still find it interesting.
Xamtheking
Member
I think Kalor is a good lynch for today
LaunchpadMcQ
Banned
I think finding the arsonist is the best choice for this phase, as scummy as Kalor is. We could potentially lose 2+ players if we let him off, and I think that this was the crux of his ability, that he could be thwarted by RNG and inspecting the map.
I know it's based on a hunch, but I still want to believe that arsonist can only ignite group that has both town and scum. I just fear that going to the arsonist route will lead to multiple town role claims.
Well if it's a traditional arsonist, it can probably ignite multiple times. So two people tonight, then three more three nights from now, etc. They might have a quota but not a limitation on ignitions.
You think that in a game of 22 players, the arsonist would have a limit of more than three people?
I know that arsonist is dangerous, heck I too am in the same table with all of the arsonist candidates.
Xamtheking
Member
We should go after scum because there is a chance scum can hit the arsonist tonight
3 or 4 is probably likely, yeah. They may have to get scum, but KK's role was a little different in Woof2 since it was disguised as a gossip. This seems to be a bit more traditional in the sense that he may not have that limitation.
LaunchpadMcQ
Banned
They won't risk removing something that will help them remove town from the board, and I would be surprised if they don't go for the one confirmed townie, Bronx. Like, they'd be dumb not to.
So let's assume the target quota is 4. Where would that leave the game, balance wise?
Players now: 18
Tomorrow (assuming no sheaningans): 16 - 3 douse targets
Players D5: 14 - 4 Douse targets. Ignition, Arsonist leaves
= 9 Players alive
That just feels wrong, balance wise.
The odds of that happening are really slim. Scum know almost as much as we do in terms of who the arsonist is, though they are able to cut down the possible suspects a little bit.
It's swingy, but I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility.
Interesting for you to jump to the discussion as soon as someone is giving you a way out.
LaunchpadMcQ
Banned
I'm feeling Kalor as my top scum, as well.
Well, at least that shows some effort. I really doubt the NK is limited in any way TBH, but I guess your thinking checks out given that assumption.
I was just looking at the thread at the time. If I wanted to focus on the arsonist as a way out I would have a vote on Absolut or Czar but instead I have it on RNH.
Well there's an RNG element to this game that pretty difficult to balance around. Eventually someone will get figured out, and in theory, we could have had one candidate for arsonist at the start of D3 if only one person had ended up staying at the same table both nights.
LaunchpadMcQ
Banned
Why would you suspect RNH? Terrabyte reported no movement from him or Salva.
To be honest, I wouldn't give too much flack to Terra's power anymore, he had claimed D2. Obviously scum would evade moving those members of their team, who are located next to Terra. That's why I think him claiming so early was ultimately not a gain for town.
LaunchpadMcQ
Banned
Fair enough. I've come off RNH after my post day 1 calling him suspicious. Don't ask me why.
Kalor my opinion is ready to find. I explained multiple times why he is my top scum candidate.
Bear is playing now like I would expect him to play. That doesn't mean a scum Burb couldn't do that, but I feel him as town for now.
RNH is a null read. Will have to look back at his posts.,
I'm pretty sure the arso will ignite tonight if they don't have that limitation on multiple ignitions, since we're actively discussing it. He may not need to be at the same table to ignite, like we are assuming for the dousing.
LaunchpadMcQ
Banned
I will yield to the consensus, but you know tomorrow Tim and AB are still going to be here, untouched.
Actually, I'm pretty sure that igniting wouldn't depend on the tables. Roy and I are at separate tables now.
He's been busy so there's not a lot to go off but most of what he posted has been very general, not saying much that went against the general opinion. He went after Fireblend on D1 and start of D2 but that was generally a safe opinion to have at the time after his tunneling on gryvan.
My remark was not referring to scum hunting vs arsonist hunting, but you picking the doused player from your suspicious list. That isn't logical to me. If he is the most suspicious maybe, but if they are all evenly suspicious, why pick the one that will probably die soon anyway?
Xamtheking
Member
This isn't NV, we can't lynch 2 people at once
Yeah RNH is a total null to me. I can't even suspect him for voting me because I was being very hostile D1 and there was no clear lynch target on D2.
Fake edit: I was looking at previous posts and Salva said:
When did the bolded happen? Maybe worth looking into.
Fake edit: I was looking at previous posts and Salva said:
When did the bolded happen? Maybe worth looking into.
I remember that happen, however I don't think RNH had almost any real traction in votes at that time. So why ask for deletion of just one vote, when at that time RNH wasn't really that viable vote winner...?
you have your answer amigo
I missed the part where terra cleaned RNH, I was too focused on myself.
If we are on a Ouro vs Kalor situation, I feel far more strongly about Ouro. He is doused, but I also feel he is scum, if the arsonist needs to fulfill a quota to win, then lynching a doused player will get him farther from his goal.
In an ideal world, the arsonist will die before igniting the players. The fact that Ouro was doused does not absolve him from getting lynched today in the hopes that the arso gets him later on, and it doesn't confirm him as town either.
Kalor was clashing heads with weemad enough for me to believe they are not teammates, but of course there is a chance he is the arsonist or a planned disagreement to confuse town, there is also the fact that he refused to vote weemad out "to avoid a tie"
Taking all this in consideration...
Vote: Ourobolus
This could backfire though. Let's say the quota is three and ourob is scum. If we lynch ourob, the arsonist needs to replace that one, and most likely hit town. If we don't find him before he ignites, we could lose 3 townies instead of two. Plus, if ourob is scum, scum will now actively be hunting for the arsonist too.
and if I'm not?