-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
Gafia 3 [Mafia] | Welcome to Lynchwood Acres
- Thread starter Ourobolus
- Start date
I think I have another drive to do, it might take forever.
StanleyPalmtree
Banned
Hi. Sorry for disapearing like that. Blame zelda.
I did get a pm related to my survival, though it doesnt specifically say I was cured. Just that I feel better now.
Take that for what you will.
Yo beanie man. You mentioned how unsurprised you were about mine and bronx mans survival. Can you explain why?
I did get a pm related to my survival, though it doesnt specifically say I was cured. Just that I feel better now.
Take that for what you will.
Yo beanie man. You mentioned how unsurprised you were about mine and bronx mans survival. Can you explain why?
I already answered this question. I think Bronx is full of shit but to continue further, even if he isn't, scum was either going to kill him or leave him be, he prevented them from potentially role blocking with his claim. So you living is whatever. As for Bronx, either he was lying (he lives) or scum let's him hang about for the potential mislynch (he lives), add to that that this is likely a neutral poisoner and I would have been more shocked if either of you actually died.
I was still holding out hope that this was some weird scum gambit between you two but I don't think you'd dedicate 3 people to it so even I have to admit Bronx is probably telling the truth which makes the claim yesterday even more baffling.
Lone_Prodigy
Member
It's Day 3, enough time to make a read list.
I'll post mine in the morning.
I'll post mine in the morning.
If the poisoner is a neutral as it seems, isn't he really screwed?
Town won't lynch Bronx because of his role, Scum wouldn't kill him because he could cure one of them if they are attacked by the poisoner. That would mean that the poisoner could just keep poisoning and Bronx could keep curing until the end of the game? That would be an error of design.
Maybe Bronx has limited cures, but that would make the poisoner irrelevant until Bronx used all his shot. That way it makes the game really difficult for the poisoner if he has to kill a number of targets. Maybe he has to kill an specific target?
I don't know what to think about this.
Town won't lynch Bronx because of his role, Scum wouldn't kill him because he could cure one of them if they are attacked by the poisoner. That would mean that the poisoner could just keep poisoning and Bronx could keep curing until the end of the game? That would be an error of design.
Maybe Bronx has limited cures, but that would make the poisoner irrelevant until Bronx used all his shot. That way it makes the game really difficult for the poisoner if he has to kill a number of targets. Maybe he has to kill an specific target?
I don't know what to think about this.
Blargonaut
Banned
YesNOnoNOYes
Member
DAY 3 CURRENT VOTE TALLY:
TheWorthyEdge (2)
Burbeting 2284
Lone_Prodigy 2286
acohrs (1)
flatearthpandas 2293
Bronx-Man (1)
acohrs 2250
Swamped (1)
Sorian 2266
No active vote for Day 3: *Splinter, Blargonaut, Bronx-Man, CCS, Faddy, franconp, Gorlak, Kawl_USC, Kyanrute, nin1000, StanleyPalmtree, Swamped, TheWorthyEdge, Verelios, WhereAreMahDragonz
Day 3 ends:
Automated vote tally here
11 votes for majority
TheWorthyEdge (2)
Burbeting 2284
Lone_Prodigy 2286
acohrs (1)
flatearthpandas 2293
Bronx-Man (1)
acohrs 2250
Swamped (1)
Sorian 2266
No active vote for Day 3: *Splinter, Blargonaut, Bronx-Man, CCS, Faddy, franconp, Gorlak, Kawl_USC, Kyanrute, nin1000, StanleyPalmtree, Swamped, TheWorthyEdge, Verelios, WhereAreMahDragonz
Day 3 ends:
Automated vote tally here
11 votes for majority
I don't have much time to post today as I will be attending PAX East, but I want to leave you all with two general points.
1. Please don't make the same mistake as me. On D1 I was convinced that Crab was scum, and so everything he did I read as a scum move. Your D1 reads are crap, and it's best to update them with new information. It's ok to be wrong, but one needs to learn from it.
2. Scum will try their utmost to get me lynched, because they know successfully NK-ing me will be challenging. Watch out for tenuous reasoning.
There are several people on my radar right now, but I shall elaborate when I have the time. For now, I want to know:
Dragonz: On D2 you asked me for a Splinter read. Could you reciprocate, I'm interested to hear what you have to say
Sorian and Splinter: I'd like your reads on each other
Faddy: I think you're town. Have you updated your reads from yesterday? What do you think of CCS? Please tell me what you think of Splinter.
---
Nice that Stan is confirmed cured. I believe that Bronx saved him. I agree that the poisoner is probably neutral because Nin was the perfect target for that. I guess it's possible that Bronx is a neutral doctor with his own win condition? But even if that were the case, he is being useful right now. Besides there are plenty of actual scum to pursue.
1. Please don't make the same mistake as me. On D1 I was convinced that Crab was scum, and so everything he did I read as a scum move. Your D1 reads are crap, and it's best to update them with new information. It's ok to be wrong, but one needs to learn from it.
2. Scum will try their utmost to get me lynched, because they know successfully NK-ing me will be challenging. Watch out for tenuous reasoning.
There are several people on my radar right now, but I shall elaborate when I have the time. For now, I want to know:
Dragonz: On D2 you asked me for a Splinter read. Could you reciprocate, I'm interested to hear what you have to say
Sorian and Splinter: I'd like your reads on each other
Faddy: I think you're town. Have you updated your reads from yesterday? What do you think of CCS? Please tell me what you think of Splinter.
---
Nice that Stan is confirmed cured. I believe that Bronx saved him. I agree that the poisoner is probably neutral because Nin was the perfect target for that. I guess it's possible that Bronx is a neutral doctor with his own win condition? But even if that were the case, he is being useful right now. Besides there are plenty of actual scum to pursue.
Re: night events.
I get the feeling someone is lying or we are missing a piece of information concerning Bronx M.D. and the poisoning spree. Even if Bronx is a neutral, I find it unreasonable to lynch him with the info we have right now.
Nin, describe the message you got about the poisoning to the best of your ability and Stan, when nin has done so, please judge if nin's description of the message sounds similar to the one you got.
Spints, did the message you got seem meaningful to you? What was it about?
I get the feeling someone is lying or we are missing a piece of information concerning Bronx M.D. and the poisoning spree. Even if Bronx is a neutral, I find it unreasonable to lynch him with the info we have right now.
Nin, describe the message you got about the poisoning to the best of your ability and Stan, when nin has done so, please judge if nin's description of the message sounds similar to the one you got.
Spints, did the message you got seem meaningful to you? What was it about?
To me the fact that the votes did not move much between the competing trains signals that not only that scum might have preferred Crab dead over Vere but also that the alternative lynch might have not been threatening to scum. After the Vere train started finally to move, no "defensive" vote happened until that of Splinter's at t-minus one. In addition both Sorian and LP made tie-preventing votes a minute before the clock.
Blargonaut
Banned
Commuter pls
Why did you specifically say chocolate pudding when Natiko only mentioned pudding in his Last Will? Why, Swamped?
There is custom Role fuckery on the level of St?p?fy afoot in this game, and now it's pissing me off, specifically what happened to me last Night
Tell me, Swamped, what did you do last Night?
Blargonaut
Banned
great, and? Do I actually still have to ask?
What did it say, *Splinter?
And how was it written; specifically with regards to sentence structure?
Did it mention anything about chocolate pudding?
Yeah I'm in the same boat. Crab never really engaged me and his read of me was seemed intentionally wrong and when I pointed it out he never came back to it. I guess if he thought I was scum then he wasn't bothered, I should have pressed him more as well.
CCS - 'm feeling dangerous to make large assumptions and I still don't like some of CCS's explanations or his role claim but logically it seems like he must be town.
Splinter- Splinter I was town reading day1 and 2 but. I have been wrong about my other reads so maybe I'm wrong about him.
Sorian - I was town lean on Sorian too but he is very abrasive which could be scum cover idk
Swamped - Still don't know what to make of you Swamped. I asked for more reasons to lynch you day2 and no one but you responded
So I'm at a whole load of NULL right now. No real strong feelings on anything
As for Bronx curing Stan. If the poisoner is neutral maybe scum left Bronx alive so he could cure scum Stan?
Sorian you're pretty full of yourself, hm? You still call Bronx' claim bullshit and were to do so quickly yesterday. I don't understand why you rule out Bronx telling the truth? We have no verification about Stan's saviour.
Ah, actually you don't rule it out? Your last post is ambivalent:
And furthermore how would you know the poisoner is neutral? Again it is possible, but it's not "fairly clear" to me. I'm not understanding how you play and why you'd rule out certain things, when all we have is speculations.
And at this point I'd like you to explain your vote on Swamped please
Ah, actually you don't rule it out? Your last post is ambivalent:
Which one is it?
And furthermore how would you know the poisoner is neutral? Again it is possible, but it's not "fairly clear" to me. I'm not understanding how you play and why you'd rule out certain things, when all we have is speculations.
And at this point I'd like you to explain your vote on Swamped please
Blarg already asked anyway, but anything exciting? Guess Blarg was telling the truth this time.
Why is it bad design, scum like death, it behooves them to remove a healer of any sort even if it means one of them could die. That and we don't know how poison interacts with Bronx. He could be immune or the exact opposite, he could be unable to heal himself at all.
My gut tells me he is full of shit because I scum read him, logic says he must be telling the truth (though the idea of Bronx actually being the neutral one is.... interesting, I don't see how that works though).
As far as it being neutral, first off,I'm doing quite the opposite of ruling things out since yesterday I was one of only two people who told people to actually consider it a neutral instead of just scum. But for the two reasons, pretty clear today since Bronx would be dead if scum was poisoning. And for the meta reason, it seemed obvious to me yesterday considering Ouro was a scum poisoner in Gafia 2. Why would he repeat such a specific role in a follow up game and the role he had no less.
And yes, I'm full of myself, deal with it.
WhereAreMahDragonz
Banned
His reads are consistent and justified, I feel, but everything else about him triggers my alarm bells. It's mostly a gut read, but there's something about his play that's so...not Splinter that weirds me out. He's usually more aggressive and I remember when he bussed me hard in....I can't remember what game, but I can't help but feel like he's being passive on purpose. It's just not really like him.
Although he explained it, his late day vote on Crab is also suspicious. I'd read him as null, slight scum.
WhereAreMahDragonz
Banned
Also does anyone else like fruit?
Acohrs adressed me yesterday and had a clash with gryvan before I replaced him. I have some time on my hand so I looked at acohrs posts. I was really surprised to see that he has 140 posts, that was clearly not while I was around. And I found an easy answer: shitposts
At least 80% of his posts are jokes, gifs or other one liners with no value and most of them happened D1. He townreads Bronx early for being defensive and shows self-awareness in #484. He scum reads faddy, but later reverses that view (#986), because he changed his mind.
Natiko called him out on dodging earlier which led to 877 around that time some votes came his way.
Acohrs votes gryvan in 1133 for being too safe and gets voted by gryvan immediatly after.
He's around at D1 end and chooses to stay out of it completely, not commenting on squidyj or crab until 1 minute before the clock "wouldn't have chosen either".
[Sidenote: It seems Splinter shuts down the possibility of an acohrs lynch in 1321 immediatly after Stan voted acohrs 20 minutes before deadline, getting Stan to change his vote (it was squid 5, crab 4, swamped 3 and acohrs 2). We all know it wasn't impossible at that moment so that's noteworthy for the future after some flips.]
Natiko's death is wifom. In large parts acohrs is silent during D2. He doesn't make a big fuss of Bronx' claim, still townreads him, but is mostly absent. Noteworthy is his assumption of crab, swamped, ccs, faddy, bronx to be town in 1917. He reinforced this view in 2134 and votes Burb, he didn't post afterwards, thus no comment on Verelios.
Summary: Most his contributions are shitposts from D1, activity dropped significantly D2.
I think his low presence yesterday sets off an alarm. He asks some empty questions (in all fairness as he did d1, but there he followed up on them) It's totally wifom if Natiko was targeted because he was onto acohrs, but in connection to him staying silent yesterday I get a bad feeling.
Scum lean.
At least 80% of his posts are jokes, gifs or other one liners with no value and most of them happened D1. He townreads Bronx early for being defensive and shows self-awareness in #484. He scum reads faddy, but later reverses that view (#986), because he changed his mind.
Natiko called him out on dodging earlier which led to 877 around that time some votes came his way.
Acohrs votes gryvan in 1133 for being too safe and gets voted by gryvan immediatly after.
He's around at D1 end and chooses to stay out of it completely, not commenting on squidyj or crab until 1 minute before the clock "wouldn't have chosen either".
[Sidenote: It seems Splinter shuts down the possibility of an acohrs lynch in 1321 immediatly after Stan voted acohrs 20 minutes before deadline, getting Stan to change his vote (it was squid 5, crab 4, swamped 3 and acohrs 2). We all know it wasn't impossible at that moment so that's noteworthy for the future after some flips.]
Natiko's death is wifom. In large parts acohrs is silent during D2. He doesn't make a big fuss of Bronx' claim, still townreads him, but is mostly absent. Noteworthy is his assumption of crab, swamped, ccs, faddy, bronx to be town in 1917. He reinforced this view in 2134 and votes Burb, he didn't post afterwards, thus no comment on Verelios.
Summary: Most his contributions are shitposts from D1, activity dropped significantly D2.
I think his low presence yesterday sets off an alarm. He asks some empty questions (in all fairness as he did d1, but there he followed up on them) It's totally wifom if Natiko was targeted because he was onto acohrs, but in connection to him staying silent yesterday I get a bad feeling.
Scum lean.
Sorian, thanks for clarifying the above, but come on...
I will not let you ride on a vote for three days without you giving a justification. I'll read your previous explanations for sure, but I'd like you to repeat a quick summary from your mind please.
I will not let you ride on a vote for three days without you giving a justification. I'll read your previous explanations for sure, but I'd like you to repeat a quick summary from your mind please.
Wait. You base your opinion on your assumption of how Ouro would build a game? I'd call that a far stretch, but knowing you it's not exactly that surprising.
I have to appeal to your patience, but I still don't follow you completely... why would Bronx be dead if scum was poisoning?
We all agree Crab had no shareworthy information? He was angry yesterday, but if there was something of value he would've told us at least. I think he either followed swamped and got a no result, which she was explaining with her commuter claim and hence he unvoted? Or he followed someone and that person didn't move. Or... I don't know, if anyone is feeling bored, he might crawl through Crab's post looking for a breadcrumb, I don't think it's worth the effort at this point.
As I said before we should look at the Crab voters and I agree that a scum team would stay on him to not let that opportunity slither away. This brings us to the who voted him, for which reasons and when. I'm going to take a look now
As I said before we should look at the Crab voters and I agree that a scum team would stay on him to not let that opportunity slither away. This brings us to the who voted him, for which reasons and when. I'm going to take a look now
The lynch on day 1 spun around in barely anytime time at all. Which meant either Crab was scum or Swamped was. Mix that with how I think she was facetious in her Crab read (even more so today with that "don't be like me" speech). She's done nothing to help. She stayed in a tunnel all game, admitted she was in a tunnel while doing it and immediately asked for forgiveness after she was proven wrong.
Scum has their normal kill. Why would they leave someone alive who could prevent a potential second kill controlled by them? Bronx is alive because scum is just as likely to be poisoned as town so they are going to use him. Either that or the switcher theory someone proposed is right which, to be fair, is possible since Kalor was a weird choice o NK.
I agree with this, Crab likely had no info to share from his tracking, if he did he would have claimed when he was about to get lynched.
Townread for now. His lower activity/engagement was concerning but I'll give benefit of the doubt that it's due to real life - I doubt a scum Sorian would hide behind inactivity after all. If Crab has flipped scum Sorian would probably have been my next target, I had been getting the feeling they were working together at times, but with Crab flipping town I guess that was nothing sinister.
Not a confident read by any means, but nothing is ringing alarms at the moment.
Just reads really, nothing particularly interesting. I don't get the impression this player had any additional info to provide at.
I don't know who sent it yet, but they did describe how they would reveal themselves to me.
Can you explain the bolded? I'm not following your logic here.
Short sentences. No caps (which is the kind of thing I'd do when trying to hide my writing style, fwiw). No oddities in the syntax, to the extent that I suspect the messager speaks English either as a first language or fluidly enough to pass as such. Not a whole lot to go on, although I have delved too deeply since they might yet reveal themselves to me anyway.
And no, none of your pudding nonsense.
Price is right? Where I was scum?
I don't remembering tunneling you in a game where I was town?
Before I respond to this, does anyone else agree with Gorlak's assessment here? Was an acohrs lynch possible on day 1, at the time of Stan's vote?
Any turn-around is possible (I mean, Verelious vote happened very late yesterday), but achors as a lynch at that point of D1 was definitely less likely than the other options with more votes.
Town vs. town. Is there a need to cause a ruckus with vote switches when both the leading candidates are town, or is is just easier to stay where you are? Not threatening = not on their team. If Verelios is scum, why did scum let him get so close to the noose?
I feel ok about Gorlak so far, nice to have someone active in that spot now. I'm still very bothered about Bronx (yeah still harping on it) since you'd think he'd be all over helping since he is in an unlynchable position but he's fine slinking instead.
WAMD is still bothering me a bit.
WAMD is still bothering me a bit.
A partner dead has a lot more value to scum that to town. They are a lot less than us so it a huge risk for them to have the poisoner without a way to cure themselves.
I said at the start of Day 2 that Acohrs seemed a lot more aggressive than usual and was worrying me but his really low profile is definitely raising red flags now.
Why do you say themselves? Do you think is a group?
No, just one. I think "themselves" was correct in that context but I had to think about it.
And in the flip side, there are a lot less of them so less chance of ever being poisoned. I would kill a poison doctor as scum even if I didn't know who the poisoner was.
What do you think about Stan then? Could he be scum and they let Bronx live to cure him?
I would just block them if possible.
Hmm... Is there setup where Bronx could be telling the truth?
Oh yeah, this would be the simpler explanation.
I'm locked up this whole weekend with plans. Will try to stay abreast of the thread as much as I can. Should be able to make some posts Sunday evening or Monday if not then.
Also, one thought from reading so far, Bronx and Stan could be linked while nin isn't lying just FYI. Hold off on poison N1, claim have mate claim doctor, boom cured, and actually poison someone N2.
If Bronx or Stan is scum than the other is almost assuredly scum in my mind. You know in case we have a cop on the case or anything.
Also, one thought from reading so far, Bronx and Stan could be linked while nin isn't lying just FYI. Hold off on poison N1, claim have mate claim doctor, boom cured, and actually poison someone N2.
If Bronx or Stan is scum than the other is almost assuredly scum in my mind. You know in case we have a cop on the case or anything.
Been on a trip from Greensboro to New York for spring break. I'll post some reads soon.
No? Kills are last in night order, you could kill Bronx in the same night he is curing someone and said person would still get cured.
Would you risk blocking him after that non-sense claim. Even believing that it's bullshit that he is somehow roleblock immune or a vet or something, I wouldn't touch it.
This is a fair point and very clever. But why link themselves like that with no real heat or reason (well Bronx had heat, Stan didn't).
So how would this even go? Is poison 1-shot / x-shot / infi-shot? Would scum know that there is a doctor? Because I feel that this plan would have a lot of ifs in it.
So, how about reversing the question. What would work?
One-shot scum poisoner maybe? A single additional scum kill is not out of the question when the game is this populated and when the kill has a delay. One shot poison wouldn't require a poison doctor so scum needn't be afraid of a fake claim either. So how would this go?
Unclear whether or not this was always the plan or just something that scummies made up after Bronx got heat on day one. N1 the poison is not used, scum Stan claims the poison, scum Bronx claims the doctor. It would be reasonable to expect that Stan would not be lynched on D2. On the other hand, it would be reasonable to expect some heat on Bronx, especially since he'd claim publicly before actually proving himself. Some risk would be involved. This makes me think that the only way this makes sense if this was a reaction to the heat Bronx got on day one.
N2 scum use the poison and poison nin. Since there would be no doctor, nin dies at the start of D4. Stan and Bronx live. Unless someone additional claims to be hit by poison, the play might very well be revealed. Third scum claims poison and scummies buy the team a day by saying something like "AWW BRONX WAS BLOCKED HE NEVER SPECIFIED HOW HIS PROTECTION WORKED IT WAS ONE SHOT SAD FACE".
N3 no poison because one shot. Scum Bronx claims to be of heroic deeds after saving their scum mate. From this point it would be up to town to decide the moves scum make, if town continue to trust the scum, scum will just offer themselves as the poison targets night after another until they run of team mates at which point they might as well start claiming that Stan was poisoned again. Or something.
I was still talking about blocking, rather than killing.
Perhaps not, but I was pretty sure he was bluffing yesterday.
It's a fairly low risk plan, I remember Hyper and I did the same in Election Mafia - Hyper was lynched day 2 and the connection never did me any harm.
I get the days confused btw, that's what I get by writing it with complete sentences.
N1 - no poison.
D2 - scum Stan claims poison, scum Bronx claims doctor.
N2 - scum poison non-scum nin.
D3 - nin claims poison, Stan claims heal, Bronx gets the cred.
N3 - no poison cuz 1-shot.
D4 - nin dies because Bronx was a liar, 3rd scum claims poison, Bronx explains that his protection was one time only and he must've been blocked or something.
Scum keep up the facade as long as town believe them. Might require repeating the fake poisonings on themselves and something like: Stan: "oh noes am poison help me super doctor bronx man".
N1 - no poison.
D2 - scum Stan claims poison, scum Bronx claims doctor.
N2 - scum poison non-scum nin.
D3 - nin claims poison, Stan claims heal, Bronx gets the cred.
N3 - no poison cuz 1-shot.
D4 - nin dies because Bronx was a liar, 3rd scum claims poison, Bronx explains that his protection was one time only and he must've been blocked or something.
Scum keep up the facade as long as town believe them. Might require repeating the fake poisonings on themselves and something like: Stan: "oh noes am poison help me super doctor bronx man".