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gamespot: ps3 in 2007?
- Thread starter U5230
- Start date
Himuro said:
I don't think there's much credence we should be giving these reports. I mean think about it for a second. Do you honestly think Sony would give up two holidays to Microsoft, regardless of how successful/unsuccessful the 360 is? It just would not make sense. I think it'll be a Fall 2006 launch for sure, but no way is it going into 2007. Stuff is added in and removed from systems ALL the time, even close to launches. It's not surprising even if it was actually happening. There's months to launch, and it hasn't gone into production yet.
Myoclonic Jerk
Member
PS2 still selling 20-30k a WEEK in Japan only, its going so good to kill it.
pros:
-more development time
-guaranteed to be much more powerful and better in all aspects than X360
-gives them time to see how X360 is doing and know exactly how to counter it
-early X360 adopters won't feel bad for purchasing another expensive console after more than a year.
cons:
-X360 more time in the market
I vote for 2007
pros:
-more development time
-guaranteed to be much more powerful and better in all aspects than X360
-gives them time to see how X360 is doing and know exactly how to counter it
-early X360 adopters won't feel bad for purchasing another expensive console after more than a year.
cons:
-X360 more time in the market
I vote for 2007
I can easily see X360 having a good launch with plenty of Xbox owners upgrading, but from Sony's point of view I imagine they think that anyone who currently only owns a PS2 would probably wait for PS3. Anyone who has both consoles will probably get a PS3 regardless of whether they get a 360. I can definitely see Sony holding PS3 back and milking PS2 for another year, despite a good X360 launch, if that is how they are thinking, and it could be a valid point of view.
But if it turns out that there is a huge segment of the PS2 market that has been looking at Xbox enviously for a while and is waiting for the new machine to come out before jumping ship, and the X360 has an unprecedented launch of enormous proportions, Sony would want to get into the market ASAP.
So.... what I'm saying is.... I guess it is plausible that Sony could hold off until 2007. Especially if the console will be a lot more expensive than the X360 - waiting longer may make it cheaper and introducing at a high high price might turn people who were previously Sony-only over to Xbox.
But if it turns out that there is a huge segment of the PS2 market that has been looking at Xbox enviously for a while and is waiting for the new machine to come out before jumping ship, and the X360 has an unprecedented launch of enormous proportions, Sony would want to get into the market ASAP.
So.... what I'm saying is.... I guess it is plausible that Sony could hold off until 2007. Especially if the console will be a lot more expensive than the X360 - waiting longer may make it cheaper and introducing at a high high price might turn people who were previously Sony-only over to Xbox.
RonaldoSan
Member
You Sony whores. I don't care how well the PS2 is doing. I want next-gen in 2006. Be it from Sony, Microsoft or Nintendo.
SolidSnakex
Member
If the 360 didn't sell all that well at launch, wouldn't that be a reason for Sony to launch the PS3 in 2006 still? Put the nails in MS coffin and get the generation control over quickly.
I hate to call most of you short-sighted gaming forum readers short-sighted, but most of you are being way too fucking short-sighted.
Sony is going to bleed long and hard as soon as the PS3 hits the presses. The whole reason that KK & Co. got into the habit of selling hardware at a loss was because they predicted that if they simultaneously gained market share while extending the life of the console, they'd wind up ahead in the long run. So there should be absolutely no question in anyone's mind that Sony absolutely wants to be able to extend the generation as far as they can get away with it. Microsoft's idiocy of including a hard drive, which has hardly gotten cheaper at all over time, is the only reason they're moving forward so quickly; under the "bleed and prolong until profit" plan, their only chance is to keep on bleeding and try to keep making inroads into marketshare. And while X360 might be sweet, such rash executions haven't been all that great for gamers in the past (though I'm sure many of you still enjoy your Virtual Boys and Sega Saturns)
The problem for Microsoft is that a $99 Xbox would be just as distracting to X360 sales as a $99 PS2. Factor in the off-chance that Nintendo slashes GameCube prices to $60-70 to maintain the "hey, we're 30% cheaper" precedent, and suddenly a library of hundreds of playable games will open up to the mass market at ridiculously low prices. Having to choose between a new PS2 and a dozen or two new/used games and an Xbox 360 with nothing more than the pack-in controller and demo disc for the same price, is not going to be a hard decision for the 94% of the public that still doesn't own an HDTV.
I know that you're all gamers and you want to be satiated now, but the sad truth is that the PS3 simply isn't done yet. Sony couldn't launch a fully-realized PS3 in the Spring if they wanted to, and certainly not outside Japan alone (which is the last territory that they need to). Anyone who's so quick to believe Sony PR to the contrary needs to remember the marketing strategy that killed Dreamcast sales within a month of its release.
It doesn't help Microsoft that general apathy to upgrading hardware so soon is so prevalant at the moment. Nor does it help that only users with HDTVs will really have the kind of picture that heralds the difference. That means that traditional advertising: posters and especially TV commercials will be entirely useless in pitching the system to SDTV owners. There is almost no way that the X360, even if launched with limitless supply in the channel will sell to anyone but the technophile and hardcore gamer.
This will play out incredibly well for Sony, who'll probably go on to post record profits off its suddenly bargain console, accessories, and greatest hits sales. They have absolutely no reason to even consider a launch until Holiday 2006. If things go absolutely superbly beyond a doubt fantastically horrible for the Xbox 360, then holding off until the Spring of 07 will only save Sony even more money as the same hardware components they would have used have a few good months to become less expensive.
Sony is going to bleed long and hard as soon as the PS3 hits the presses. The whole reason that KK & Co. got into the habit of selling hardware at a loss was because they predicted that if they simultaneously gained market share while extending the life of the console, they'd wind up ahead in the long run. So there should be absolutely no question in anyone's mind that Sony absolutely wants to be able to extend the generation as far as they can get away with it. Microsoft's idiocy of including a hard drive, which has hardly gotten cheaper at all over time, is the only reason they're moving forward so quickly; under the "bleed and prolong until profit" plan, their only chance is to keep on bleeding and try to keep making inroads into marketshare. And while X360 might be sweet, such rash executions haven't been all that great for gamers in the past (though I'm sure many of you still enjoy your Virtual Boys and Sega Saturns)
The problem for Microsoft is that a $99 Xbox would be just as distracting to X360 sales as a $99 PS2. Factor in the off-chance that Nintendo slashes GameCube prices to $60-70 to maintain the "hey, we're 30% cheaper" precedent, and suddenly a library of hundreds of playable games will open up to the mass market at ridiculously low prices. Having to choose between a new PS2 and a dozen or two new/used games and an Xbox 360 with nothing more than the pack-in controller and demo disc for the same price, is not going to be a hard decision for the 94% of the public that still doesn't own an HDTV.
I know that you're all gamers and you want to be satiated now, but the sad truth is that the PS3 simply isn't done yet. Sony couldn't launch a fully-realized PS3 in the Spring if they wanted to, and certainly not outside Japan alone (which is the last territory that they need to). Anyone who's so quick to believe Sony PR to the contrary needs to remember the marketing strategy that killed Dreamcast sales within a month of its release.
It doesn't help Microsoft that general apathy to upgrading hardware so soon is so prevalant at the moment. Nor does it help that only users with HDTVs will really have the kind of picture that heralds the difference. That means that traditional advertising: posters and especially TV commercials will be entirely useless in pitching the system to SDTV owners. There is almost no way that the X360, even if launched with limitless supply in the channel will sell to anyone but the technophile and hardcore gamer.
This will play out incredibly well for Sony, who'll probably go on to post record profits off its suddenly bargain console, accessories, and greatest hits sales. They have absolutely no reason to even consider a launch until Holiday 2006. If things go absolutely superbly beyond a doubt fantastically horrible for the Xbox 360, then holding off until the Spring of 07 will only save Sony even more money as the same hardware components they would have used have a few good months to become less expensive.
But a $99 anything isn't going to upset Xbxo 360 or PS3 applecarts. Thats bargain basement pricing, for the massmarket who haven't so far bought a console. They were never going to buy an xbox360 or PS3 at launch anyway, and the people that might will already have had an xbox or PS2 for a long time.
Two completely different, and non-cannibalising markets. PS2 will still have a 10 year lifecycle, it'll just be overlapped by the launch of PS3
If anything, a $99 PS2 sells to the mass market, and in 5/6 years those people will be ready to buy a $99/149 PS3.
Two completely different, and non-cannibalising markets. PS2 will still have a 10 year lifecycle, it'll just be overlapped by the launch of PS3
If anything, a $99 PS2 sells to the mass market, and in 5/6 years those people will be ready to buy a $99/149 PS3.
I think that regardless of Xbox360's success, what's making Sony backstep to possibly '07 is the blu-ray drive. That thing must be very expensive right now, and the longer the wait, the lesser the manufacturing cost of it.
Also, the Playstation 3 may not be that more powerful than Xbox 360, aside from the Blu-Ray Drive, and in major fault because of the later.
Also, the Playstation 3 may not be that more powerful than Xbox 360, aside from the Blu-Ray Drive, and in major fault because of the later.
Eh, I'd say the scope of effect a $99 price point would have is a little beyond the mainstream gamers who have yet to own "a console" this generation.
That thinking was fine before this generation, but the last 5 years have introduced three new ideas:
1) Shitty ass hardware that's liable to break as soon as the warranty's up (nods to both MS and Sony)
2) THREE viable platforms, all of them with plenty of exclusive content actually worth playing and certainly differentiable from what's available on the other two consoles.
3) Sexy hardware redesigns at the peak of the product's popularity and not during the decline (which has incited many people to repurchase the PS2 already, and will many more once it hits a figure as low as $99, also sparking more interest in purchasing new games to play on it).
So yeah, while some mainstream gamers might pick up a console for the first time, the vast majority will take the opportunity to pick up the console that they didn't already have and for the first time become multi-system owners. Because of the affordability, it seems entirely plausible that a faithful PS2 gamer will pick up an Xbox and just buy a bunch of used games they heard were good (which is hilarious, since Microsoft would only lose money on those sales). If the only news story were the release of the 360, those are dollars that people might otherwise have considered investing in the bleeding edge; since they're probably going to have a valid distraction not to (or at least a viable alternative), of course the price drops are a factor.
Really, it does matter.
That thinking was fine before this generation, but the last 5 years have introduced three new ideas:
1) Shitty ass hardware that's liable to break as soon as the warranty's up (nods to both MS and Sony)
2) THREE viable platforms, all of them with plenty of exclusive content actually worth playing and certainly differentiable from what's available on the other two consoles.
3) Sexy hardware redesigns at the peak of the product's popularity and not during the decline (which has incited many people to repurchase the PS2 already, and will many more once it hits a figure as low as $99, also sparking more interest in purchasing new games to play on it).
So yeah, while some mainstream gamers might pick up a console for the first time, the vast majority will take the opportunity to pick up the console that they didn't already have and for the first time become multi-system owners. Because of the affordability, it seems entirely plausible that a faithful PS2 gamer will pick up an Xbox and just buy a bunch of used games they heard were good (which is hilarious, since Microsoft would only lose money on those sales). If the only news story were the release of the 360, those are dollars that people might otherwise have considered investing in the bleeding edge; since they're probably going to have a valid distraction not to (or at least a viable alternative), of course the price drops are a factor.
Really, it does matter.
Juice said:
The people that buy the X360 and the PS3 at launch are a different market to the people that wait 5 years into the life of a console to buy it at 1/3rd price.
Infact, I'm guessing most of the early adopters will already own a PS2, Xbox, GC or all 3.
In that context... giving MS 2 christmas seasons to get ahead, is the kind of arrogance only rivaled by Nintendo back in 1995-1996...
Developers will need to establish their footholds into next generation too... and while some might wait for the PS3, more likely, more will spread their eggs into both baskets (as a result of the PS3 coming out late), only to find upon PS3 release, a good deal of the market resides with MS.
Of course, Sony's strategy is saner than that... they're waiting to see how the X360 does before making the call... if the X360 tanks, then they'll have a little more freedom to do as they please, confident that the next gen is their's to take at their leisure. If the X360 does well though, they know they're going to have to counter quickly...
I trust MS can at least do enough to pressure Sony into announced release.
Doom_Bringer
Banned
jarrod said:
Handheld is the smaller secondary area, but for Sony it's all about the console business. No chance in hell will they let Microsoft and Nin10do have a one year lead.
No.chance.in.hell.
Sony is going to turn around and give MS a full year+ lead?
Somebody's on crack.
However Europe is the wildcard.... I could definitely see a Japanese and US launch next year... Europe? Who f*ckin knows... I'd like to think they'll get a 2006 release, especially considering that MS is doing a worldwide 2005 launch...
Thing is if Sony waits until fall to do a US launch then they ARE giving MS a full year lead in the US...
Sony is going to turn around and give MS a full year+ lead?
Somebody's on crack.
However Europe is the wildcard.... I could definitely see a Japanese and US launch next year... Europe? Who f*ckin knows... I'd like to think they'll get a 2006 release, especially considering that MS is doing a worldwide 2005 launch...
Thing is if Sony waits until fall to do a US launch then they ARE giving MS a full year lead in the US...
Well, knowing Nintendo, they won't be ready until 2007 either. :lolDoom_Bringer said:
Honestly, I could see PS3 launch in Europe in either 2006 or 2007. I just don't think 2006 is absolutely guaranteed, not by a longshot.
PSP came out 6 months later in Europe than America. So if PS3 releases September 2006 in America...Deg said:
No way PS3 will miss two holidays in a row giving Xbox 360 that much time. On the off and incredibly stupid chance they would then I would say they deserve to lose their lead in the home console market.
I totally see and planned on the PS2 drop to 99 bucks at the xbox 360 launch though.
I totally see and planned on the PS2 drop to 99 bucks at the xbox 360 launch though.
Sony would committ suicide by launching in 2007. The PS3 simply won't have the technological gap over the 360 from what I'm seeing to make it stand out over the 360. By then it would be going against 2nd generation 360 games, Halo 3 would probably get a chance to launch at the same time or even earlier. There's too many things going against that launch date. I can see Europe in 2007 though no problem. Although I can see Europe 2006 for 360 as well.
I think December's actually the earliest likely target for EU release. Really it depends on supply though, strategically America's by far the more important market so satiating demand here likely takes precedence over European launch.Deg said:
If SCEI can get production ramped up fast, we'll probably see a Christmas launch in Europe. If not, see you in March.
WrathOfOtaibah
Banned
Zeo said:
:lol
PS3 won't be out in 2007. Financially, it makes sense but there's a lot more on the line than this generation where the only thing Sony had to go up against was Dreamcast.
Doom_Bringer
Banned
jarrod said:RE5? You mean that Xbox 360 game?
I think what we saw was running on the PS3 dev kit. The X360 Alpha kit is very weak and incapable of those kinds of graphics. Just compare DMC4 with Dead Rising, you will see what I am talking about.
I dunno, Sega was actually a strong choice for Europeans with more brand nostalgia over the market. I don't think Sony has to worry about Europe as much as they need to make sure Microsoft doesn't gain a foothold in America. And if that means delaying EU launch into 2007 so they can supply more units to America, that's what's going to happen.The Experiment said:
WrathOfOtaibah
Banned
jarrod said:
Yeah but by mid 1999, the Dreamcast crapped out in Japan. From Spring 2000 on, the Dreamcast crapped out in America. Europe followed shortly after. Word of PS2 was there but it wasn't the sole reason why DC flopped.
Now its next generation and already more developers are serious about X360 and have more in store for it than what they did for Xbox (aka, the lets port PS2 games with new graphics and maybe a level or two). Sony can't afford to wait around until whenever to release PS3. Sure it would do well if it came 2007 or hell, 2008 but the longer Sony releases PS3, the bigger chunk X360 is going to take from Sony.
Which doesn't matter anyway since its all coming out 2006 anyways.
jarrod said:If SCEI can get production ramped up fast, we'll probably see a Christmas launch in Europe. If not, see you in March.
You've got a better chance of seeing a shortage filled Dec launch than a March launch if SCEI has production # problems.
Actually, I doubt the trailer was done on either development kit. More likely it was target renders, given that Studio 2 still doesn't even have an engine set in place.Doom_Bringer said:
DMC4 and Dead Rising were done by different teams too, and they have different focuses. DMC4 certainly looks better, but it's pushing nowhere near the amount of enemies onscreen that Dead Rising is... a fairer comparison would be Dead Rising to Koei's Ni-Oh.
installed base in europe.
Console Installed Bases - 3/31/05
PS2 25.1m
Xbox 5.2m
GCN 3.9m
sony needs to put all their effort on the us market, since they already own EU + JP. in my opinion they should launch the ps3 in usa first, then japan and last europe. a 6 month gap between the usa and europe lanch sounds fair.
Console Installed Bases - 3/31/05
PS2 25.1m
Xbox 5.2m
GCN 3.9m
sony needs to put all their effort on the us market, since they already own EU + JP. in my opinion they should launch the ps3 in usa first, then japan and last europe. a 6 month gap between the usa and europe lanch sounds fair.
Doom_Bringer
Banned
jarrod said:
After reading the Takeuchi interview at gamespot I think you may be right, they haven't ruled out the Unreal 3 engine yet!
Agreed! But I don't think we should compare a game by a dev who is known for graphics while the other isn't. A fairer comparison would be Heavenly Sword