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[Sobriquet]

I have to use a fax all the time. I hate it, it seems so archaic. Although I'm somewhat fond of the old dial-up sounds.

 

[Goldrusher]

When the doctor said he had reached 1.3 pounds, I told all my friends that my son was the size of an iPad.

The list is as stupid as this remark.

 

[Diprosalic]

i bet all of them will be around. well maybe not 3D glasses but i haven't really seen one of those ever.


kids these days still use MCs for children stuff. and vinyl is still around and so is VHS.

 

[echoshifting]

I think the author would have been better off suggesting that these things will simply be dramatically different. I can see optical media being perceived as 100% disposable, and I can see movie theaters evolving into a more formal "night out" entertainment venue, like going to play.

 

[marrec]

Well tablets will begin to outsell laptops (they already outsell desktops) pretty soon so while they won't replace it completely touch will be the far and away dominate form of computing for consumers pretty soon.

It's a stretch to say it will be dead as he does but not many consumers will be using traditional PC, most will be on tablets.

Again, that seems like wishful thinking. Companies are investing more money into Ultrabooks right now then ever, I give it 5 years before the Ultrabook phase is done and they start really getting behind Tablet computing as a replacement for Laptops.

 

[lunarworks]

Seems like a random person that just learned some buzzwords and is trying to extrapolate with limited information and without vision.

Gizmodo.

 

[Mammoth Jones]

Desktops aren't going anywhere. Sure they're not the only computing solution anymore nor should they be and they're definitely not as prominent but they're not going anywhere when absolute real raw power is needed.

I love my laptop, I love my iphone, I love my android tablet but when I want to do high end tasks I take it to the desktop.

Movie Theatres aren't going anywhere. There's an intangible social quality to getting dressed, going out, getting some popcorn and watching a movie then getting some dinner to discuss the movie that can't be mimicked by sitting along in your pad watching netflix.

Wired internet isn't going anywhere for at least 20 years. Sorry, but LTE isn't cutting it when I'm streaming HD content on my laptop, someone else in the house is streaming or playing online...etc

 

[Cheebo]

Again, that seems like wishful thinking. Companies are investing more money into Ultrabooks right now then ever, I give it 5 years before the Ultrabook phase is done and they start really getting behind Tablet computing as a replacement for Laptops.

Yeah, Ultrabook is the stop-gap till tablet technology really catches up (while it is adapting and growing quickly there is still that gap there).

 

[Walshicus]

Slow-Booting Computers

Booting will always be "slow". You'll just need to cold boot less often, because most things will be in sleep mode or a modified hibernation state.

Windows 8 on an SSD is blazing fast to load, right now. In ten years time?

 

[gutterboy44]

Pretty dumb list. It seems like a list written by someone who just got their first tablet and canceled their cable subscription.

No way in hell are "windows" and the mouse going away any time soon. The productivity and efficiency they offer is going to take a long time to rival, far more than 15-20 years. If you have a job that doesn't involve wanking off with a laptop at a cafe then a mouse and the ability to have multiple windows open is a must. Fuck, going to three monitors at work is likely going to happen for my co-workers and I. The boon of two monitors in work environments is just finally catching on. I can't tell you how many people say, "I don't need two monitors" until they are told they are getting two no matter what, then they say in about 3 days, "Oh my god, I can never use one screen again!"

The number one thing that has me throwing down my iPad and running over to my computer is tasks that require multiple windows, and tasks that are 10x more efficient with a mouse and keyboard, not some lack of software or compatibility. Until we have voice recognition that makes siri look like a speak and spell and 3d space touch gestures that makes minority report look like a MTA kiosk then I don't think the mouse and windowed apps are going anywhere. The other predictions in this are about as bold as claiming it is going to rain after the first drops hit. Gizmodo quality through and through.

 

[Neuromancer]

That you know of.

=o

 

[artist]

I think the pressure is coming from the audiences in this case and comparable alternatives are just secondary to the real motivating factor: cost. Rising costs are making movie going a lot more expensive. People aren't going to have a choice anymore and they'll stop going to the movies as much as they do now.

BS. Movie studios are also facing the same issue - rising costs. And those cannot be recovered from VOD or any other alternatives. Movie theaters will remain the prime driver of movie grosses and studio revenues/profits.

 

[lunarworks]

Windows 8 on an SSD is blazing fast to load, right now. In ten years time?

Windows 8 normally "boots" on a modified hibernation file. If you're doing an actual cold boot, which won't be often, it'll be much slower. Anyway, I put "slow" in quotes because in 10 years waiting 30 seconds may be as annoying as waiting 2 minutes is now.

 

[jkoch]

I hope land lines don't go away. Not because I'm a luddite, but because cell phones are fine for a quick chat but they're not good for longer calls since the sound quality is low and they're not as comfortable as a handset.

 

[Davidion]

Windows 8 normally "boots" on a modified hibernation file. If you're doing an actual cold boot, which won't be often, it'll be much slower. Anyway, I put "slow" in quotes because in 10 years waiting 30 seconds may be as annoying as waiting 2 minutes is now.

Honestly, I just built a new computer and even Windows 7 only takes about 20 seconds to cold boot, if that. This is after my BIOs does a redundant marvel controller check which requires it to restart.

If Win 8 more lean and/or optimized, "slow" may not work in any meaning of the word.

 

[marrec]

I know, but I think that tablets sacrifice a lot for convenience sake. There are a lot of times when using a tablet, I think its adequate for the task on hand, but it would be so much easier on a laptop or something.

The only thing that I find difficult to do on a tablet is type.

 

[gcubed]

i bet his career as a blogger won't be around long enough for his son to remember

 

[lunarworks]

Honestly, I just built a new computer and Windows 7 only takes about 20 seconds to cold boot, if that. This is after my BIOs does a redundant marvel controller check which requires it to restart.

Just built it, eh? Within a year you can expect that boot time to double.

 

[Broder Salsa]

Most of this is really stupid. Also not sure how you can be 23 and not remember dial up... Well I guess you could have no interest in computer at all when you were a kid but... I remember it from my parents work places, at home and really a hell lot of places and I am younger than that.

 

[FLEABttn]

Just built it, eh? Within a year you can expect that boot time to double.

Are you being cheeky or serious? Because so long as he isn't installing 50 things that all want to start-up at boot, it's not going to double. Windows 7 isn't Windows 98.

Most of this is really stupid. Also not sure how you can be 23 and not remember dial up... Well I guess you could have no interest in computer at all when you were a kid but... I remember it from my parents work places, at home and really a hell lot of places and I am younger than that.

My sister is 21 and remembers dial-up very well. If you're 23 and don't recall dial-up, you weren't paying attention, you weren't using it, or you never had it and you went straight to Broadband.

 

[JeTmAn81]

Since the context of the article is "things my newborn son won't have memories of when he's older", I think I can agree with:

Dedicated cameras/camcorders - I think these will still exist for specialty use, but that's not something a kid would interact with. If he does any kind of picture-taking at age 12 or so, he'll be using a smartphone.

Landline phones - yeah, these will be dead soon.

3D glasses - I'm just hoping these will go away.

Primetime television - This will still exist, but only for people whose only option is over-the-air broadcast TV. Almost everyone else will watch on their own schedules.

Fax machines - how is this not completely dead already?

Optical discs - Blu-Ray is the last big format for this, it's all digital and cloud-based from here on out.

 

[msv]

Oh woa, I missed the 'windows' one. That's just utter tripe. Perhaps another way of working in windows, boxes, whatever will arise. But to point out Metro as why it will phase out, really? Metro doesn't replace a desktop environment, it's merely a UI made with touchscreens in mind. There's no reason to eliminate the added flexibility of manually positioning your running programs/instances when we have the precision/speed of use that we have with a keyboard/mouse combo.

So on the one hand he's saying 'mice will go away, touchscreens and such will become as precise and responsive, making them obsolete' and on the other 'we'll only have UI's aimed at current day touchscreen technology.' Get a clue, jeez.

 

[Dhx]

I doubt we'll still have POST in 10 years. They've been working up alternatives for a while now. Windows 7 on SSD is essentially a few seconds of boot time. It takes as long to log in as it does to boot up and open an application. POST is the bottleneck.

 

[Davidion]

Are you being cheeky or serious? Because so long as he isn't installing 50 things that all want to start-up at boot, it's not going to double. Windows 7 isn't Windows 98.

There is general SSD degradation, which in combination with Windows slowdown over time will surely deteriorate performance. Then again, the technology is constantly improving and tests like this (http://www.storagereview.com/ssd_performance_review_270tb_written) shows that even torture testing SSDs will only result in a mild performance loss.

Really, I just don't really think the slow boots of yore can even be considered once you start using even halfway decent SSDs as boot drives. That isn't the future, it's now. Of course, if you consider everything that's not instant-on to be slow, then you'll almost always be disappointed. But then I think once you're in that world you're looking more at an attention span problem than you are with deficient technology.

 

[Mangotron]

This list is honestly really stupid.

Wired internet is nowhere close to being replaced by current wireless tech.

Windows is ALWAYS hiding behind whatever new face they put on it, you can turn Metro off.

Desktop PC's aren't going anywhere, tablets are still 5-8 years behind current PC tech and are completely impractical for most business purposes.

Optical disks aren't going anywhere until we have complete coverage of any first world areas with capless broadband.

Mice are a possibility, but to be honest I find touchscreens to be much more fatiguing/annoying/inaccurate then a mouse.

Remotes being replaced won't happen either because they will always be included with the TV, I think seeing TVs increasingly allow for smartphones to be used as remotes is likely though.

 

[lunarworks]

There is general SSD degradation, which in combination with Windows slowdown over time will surely deteriorate performance. Then again, the technology is constantly improving and tests like this (http://www.storagereview.com/ssd_performance_review_270tb_written) shows that even torture testing SSDs will only result in a mild performance loss.

Really, I just don't really think the slow boots of yore can even be considered once you start using even halfway decent SSDs as boot drives. That isn't the future, it's now. Of course, if you consider everything that's not instant-on to be slow, then you'll almost always be disappointed. But then I think once you're in that world you're looking more at an attention span problem than you are with deficient technology.

That's why I implied that slow is relative. What we see as super-speedy today may not be considered that in the future. Attention spans are getting shorter, and people are getting more impatient, after all.

 

[runningjoke]

Windows is ALWAYS hiding behind whatever new face they put on it, you can turn Metro off.

You can in 8, but I think it'll be gone in 9 when people realise they don't need Windows 3.11 screens anymore.

[edit] 3.11 is the oldest I used, but Windows has been around since 1985. The windows interface is 27 years old, and doesn't work in the "post-pc world"

 

[LuchaShaq]

I haven't used.

Wired home internet.

Landlines (fucking lol)

Dedicated Camera

Slow booting computers

Fax Machine

In years if EVER

I also haven't used

Movie theaters

3d glasses

Primetime tv

more than once a year or so due to them being the worst way to see movies/(worst TV) now due to 3d being awful, idiots at the theater, and jacked up prices.




Not exactly bold predicitons

 

[Easy_D]

How can a 23 year old not remember dial-up?

 

[bearythebear]

The mouse is probably the best input device. Going touch only is a step backwards

 

[AndyD]

The mouse is just too efficient. The only way it goes away is if sit-down computing goes away entirely, and while I think it will shrink there are certain tasks you don't want to do on a mobile device.

I thought the same thing in general.

But I think he means for non work purposes, as he speaks about his son at a high school age. Which may actually be accurate. If OSes and PCs and everyday software move to a tablet/touch screen type format, then a mouse is not necessary.

In terms of heavy duty work though, he acknowledges that the old school methods are going nowhere.

 

[Rich Uncle Skeleton]

I can't believe some of you think we'll be using dedicated TV remotes in 15 years. Maybe our parents will, but to me it already feels archaic to be clumsily navigating using a remote when I've got a smartphone in my pocket and a laptop within reach.

 

[JWong]

None of those are going to happen.

We still have plenty of people on dial-up, which should have been dead 10 years ago.

 

[sixteen-bit]

Movie theaters won't go away

 

[bananas]

But what if I have a daughter?

 

[lunarworks]

The mouse is probably the best input device. Going touch only is a step backwards

The gesture-heavy trackpad on my MacBook Pro almost completely replaced my mouse. I only use my mouse for precise image editing and gaming now.

That said, I absolutely do not want to touch my laptop's screen.

 

[Lothars]

Wired Home Internet - Not going to happen anytime soon.

Dedicated Cameras and Camcorders - Nope there will still be tons of dedicated Cameras

Landline Phones - Nope they are not going away.


Slow-Booting Computers - I agree

Windowed Operating Systems - Will still be used.

Hard Drives - Not happening either.

Movie Theaters - possibly but not in the time he's saying.

The Mouse - Nope not happening, he's really reaching here.

3D Glasses - This is an accurate one and I agree.

Remote Controls - Nope not going away anytime soon but they will be more like logitech harmony remotes than just a basic remote.


Desktops - Not any time soon, They will have uses just not as prevelant

Phone Numbers - No chance of this happening

Primetime Television - I am not sure about this one.

Fax Machines - Not as soon as they say but it will eventually go away

Optical Discs - They will have there place but with flash drives and the such not as prevelant.

 

[jorma]

I agree with a few and disagree with a few. I don't see the mouse going away, nor movie theaters.

These were my picks to disagree with as well. Well the mouse might be gone, but the tech to replace it is not invented yet.

 

[AndyD]

I can't believe some of you think we'll be using dedicated TV remotes in 15 years. Maybe our parents will, but to me it already feels archaic to be clumsily navigating using a remote when I've got a smartphone in my pocket and a laptop within reach.

I don't think we will lose a remote device approach in favor of voice/gesture commands in 20 years.

But I do agree that a remote wont be just a remote in the future but perhaps an app for each device we own on a tablet by the couch. Tivo and some TV/electronics manufacturers already release apps that work as remotes today. Now all we need is the same for cable boxes and its all over.

Or we could go the route of Google TV where you route everything through the one device which then IP/HDMI controls all the other devices in your system.

 

[Bjern Fita]

The incredible revolution that touch and mobile/tablets may bring is always blown out of proportion by the tech journos/bloggers. How much of their day is spent in excel?

Sure I love it on my mobile, but how many CTOs or CFOs see their staff running everything on iPads? Not fucking many I wager. And you better convince the corporate world to ditch them if you think mice are on the way out.

 

[SonicMegaDrive]

I won't miss optical discs or 3d glasses.

 

[Forceatowulf]

Any time someone tells me they didn't have to deal with dial-up or have never even heard of it, it fucks my mind upside down...

You people don't even know the meaning of the word patience. You motherfuckers.

 

[kingslunk]

No one making fun of them saying the mouse is going to dead? Bullshit and a half. Mouse use > touch use.

 

[ReturnOfTheRAT]

I can't say that I'm surprised that Gizmodo put together such a shitty list.

 

[Rich Uncle Skeleton]

I don't think we will lose a remote device approach in favor of voice/gesture commands in 20 years.

But I do agree that a remote wont be just a remote in the future but perhaps an app for each device we own on a tablet by the couch. Tivo and some TV/electronics manufacturers already release apps that work as remotes today. Now all we need is the same for cable boxes and its all over.

Or we could go the route of Google TV where you route everything through the one device which then IP/HDMI controls all the other devices in your system.

Agree completely. I'd strongly disagree if the article were implying we'd all be using a Kinect-like technology to control our TVs, but it isn't. It specifically says that or smartphones.

 

[agrajag]

I for one do NOT look forward to waving my hands around to change the channel.

 

[Tacitus_]

A shitty 'article' by a shitty blog.

 

[Manmademan]

No one making fun of them saying the mouse is going to dead? Bullshit and a half. Mouse use > touch use.

I think it goes along with the prediction that desktop PCs, wired internet, and windows will be gone.

this guy is predicting tablets (and maybe touch enabled laptops) will take over for all purposes- if that was the case, yes the mouse is DOA- but i don't see this happening.

Business and power users won't want anything to do with it- for stationary computing the mouse is far, far preferable to touch inputs.

 

[Appleman]

Why do I feel like people are misinterpreting the article? Yes, landline phones will still be around for a while, my parents will probably use them till they die. BUT anyone growing up now will probably have very little experience with optical disks, fax machines, landline phones, cable TV, etc. over the course of their lives. By the time a newborn is old enough to use computers, they won't be using mouse-equipped desktops unless they need to do very rare, specific tasks.

I personally am just young enough that I will never in my entire life pay for a landline phone, or cable TV. And everything else is on its way out for up-and-comings with no previous relationship with technology to latch on to.

 

[XenoRaven]

I read an article that with the way SSD technology works, the higher capacity drives won't be much faster than HDDs. It's something to do with the number of transistors in a finite space and as the capicities start to approach the 1 TB range, SSDs become significantly slower and more prone to data loss. The end result would be SSD tech hitting a wall in like 2030 or something.

Anyone heard anything similar? Is this just a bunch of BS?