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So there you have it. Technically, financially, and commercially, Blu-Ray already has HD DVD beaten. Unless NEC and Toshiba pull out some trump card for HD DVD within the next year—and clearly, we don't see it happening—expect Blu-Ray to replace DVD.

 

[cja]

Toshiba think HD-DVD may have the war won before years end.

"I think the rest (of studios) are swinging in favor of our side," said Yamada who is also head of Toshiba's HD DVD development operations.

The other big studios include Walt Disney Co. (DIS) group, Time Warner Inc. (TWX), Universal Studios and Paramount Pictures Corp. (PTP.XX).

If these four studios come to the HD DVD side, "that would effectively mean the end of the game" even before the two sides of different formats roll out their versions of products in late 2005, he said.

DVD Format Winner May Be Set This Yr

 

[kaching]

Unless both sides were to sit down and hammer out a single HD blue-laser format, there's not likely going to be a real winner declared for several years yet. Even if Toshiba's prediction is true and those 4 studios decide to support of HDDVD, that's no guarantee that the consumer will decide in favor of HDDVD. For example, if more people are initially interested in BRD boxes because they offer recording capabilities that the HDDVD camp hasn't talked much about yet, then the studios offering pre-recorded content on BRD are likely to sell more units, whether there's fewer of them doing so or not.

Likewise, it was premature for Gizmodo to pull this "BRD has already won" line on Monday and its equally premature now. It's not altogether clear yet how competitively BRD can be priced relative to HDDVD to start. It's not really going to matter how much more technically impressive BRD is if manufacturers and studios can't price that added value sensibly and/or make consumers see it as such.

 

[xsarien]

If these four studios come to the HD DVD side, "that would effectively mean the end of the game" even before the two sides of different formats roll out their versions of products in late 2005, he said.

Whomever said this is failing to remember Divx. It's more reliant on the volume of players that support the formats.