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[oti]

CDU-CSU guy calling Merkel's Euro politics of the last five years excellent. "It works everywhere, look at Spain, Greece just didn't want to implement the reforms." He also added he doesn't understand how communists don't go to Switzerland to get their money back.

Varoufakis in general is getting a heavy beating for his terrorists remark.

 

[elrechazado]

I'm pretty sure there are many countries who had more spending power before the Euro. In terms of rent, food, proximity services etc... those tings were cheaper before the euro imo

Also why does it make more sense to borrow money from banks, with a high interest rate (as European countries must do - by law) rather than creating your own money with no interest at all ?

Running the printing presses with fiat currency certainly has it's own after effects and risks.

 

[Kathian]

I would not like to be a greek right now, not knowing what'll happen but knowing that whatever happens is not good.

Time to leave the Euro. Pull the plaster off now and it'll be better sooner.

 

[CrunchyB]

I'm getting the distinct impression that people in Greece don't understand what's going on.

They basically voted for more money. Cool, but I wonder who will give it to them because I'm pretty sure it won't be the other Eurozone countries. Trust is all but gone.

 

[Relaxed Muscle]

*Tax income

PIB = GDP

Basically, Greece collects more money in taxes that the average in the EU

But those Greece guys are so lazy and corrupt.

 

[chadskin]

Maltese Prime Minister Joseph Muscat said in reaction to Greece's referendum "No" vote on Sunday that people in creditor countries now expected their representatives to protect their interests.

Malta, as a member of the eurozone, is a creditor country to Athens. Its lending to Greece is proportionately among the highest, amounting to well over two percent of the island's GDP.

Muscat said in a statement the Greek vote on a bailout package could not be taken lightly since it carried consequences for the whole European project.

"The Greek government sought to protect its people's interest using the method it deemed best. People in creditor countries now expect their representatives to protect their interests and that of the whole European project," Muscat said.

via Reuters

 

[oti]

Is the ZDF discussion or Günther Jauch on ARD more interesting? I missed the beginning.

Dunno, I just stayed after the heute Journal. Illner can be pretty rough, but so can Jauch.

 

[franbatista123]

Time to leave the Euro. Pull the plaster off now and it'll be better sooner.

They definitely have to leave. The thing is it will take Greece decades to recover. It's necessary but it will very hard on every greek.

 

[Theonik]

The ZDF chef editor just said the Greek government should fire Vaeoufakis.

They should definitely not do that. I was sceptical at the start but at this point he's the only one talking sense in this circus.
Everyone should watch these videos if they are not convinced:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YF4XJ9gs6Bo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HgyxnLKPX7Q

 

[KHarvey16]

I'm getting the distinct impression that people in Greece don't understand what's going on.

They basically voted for more money. Cool, but I wonder who will give it to them because I'm pretty sure it won't be the other Eurozone countries. Trust is all but gone.

Regardless of why they did it, voting no was the correct economic decision.

 

[itsgreen]

Regardless of why they did it, voting no was the correct economic decision.

Only time will tell...

 

[cyberheater]

I know that 80% of Greeks still want to remain part of the Eurozone but high ranking officials in other countries stated that a no vote means an exit.

How likely is it that Greece will exit?

 

[Arkos]

Daaamn whatever was going to happen did not expect such a large majority

 

[Negotiator]

Funny and despicable at the same time:

Translation:

"Is it our fault that most social groups are in favour of Yes?"

Maria Sarafoglou 2/7/2015, Athens, MEGA

MEGA = Greek TV channel/systemic media that belongs to George Bobolas (the same guy who funds Stavros Theodorakis/To Potami)

OXI = No = Orange = 60%
NAI = Yes = Blue = 40%

Yes, that's media propaganda at its finest, in case you still don't get it...

 

[KHarvey16]

Only time will tell...

I mean, the math is pretty clear. Austerity just means needless suffering that buys them almost nothing.

 

[ElTorro]

I don't see the ECB increasing the ELA line tomorrow after this result. And new negotiations will take some considerable time. Seems to me that Greece will run out of money in the next few days.

 

[le-seb]

^ Yup, as said in the other thread, I've heard tonight on French TV this could happen as soon as tomorrow.

Poland isn't even in the eurozone. What say do they have in this?

They've been paying taxes that went into previous bailout plans?

 

[alexandros]

*Tax income

PIB = GDP

Basically, Greece collects more money in taxes that the average in the EU

But those Greece guys are so lazy and corrupt.

Shh, no facts, only stereotypes now.

 

[Xando]

EC does actually have executive powers, you know. That was one of the main aims of the Lisbon Treaty.

That will surely get a great reaction by everyone outside of greece. Northern right wing parties will have a field day.

 

[Coriolanus]

Well then.

Merkel and Hollande want emergency summit on Tuesday

Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande have spoken on the phone tonight, and agreed that a eurozone leaders’ summit should be held on Tuesday.

That’s according to the German government spokesman, who said the chancellor and president also agreed that the referendum result should be respected (via Reuters)

 

[Abounder]

I mean, the math is pretty clear. Austerity just means needless suffering that buys them almost nothing.

Yup, to me the EU seems like a bad joke and is just another sign of Europe's decline if their members leave like so

 

[PodcastFips]

I know that 80% of Greeks still want to remain part of the Eurozone but high ranking officials in other countries stated that a no vote means an exit.

How likely is it that Greece will exit?

If other European countries do not support Greece anymore then they do not have a real choice I guess.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

They definitely have to leave. The thing is it will take Greece decades to recover. It's necessary but it will very hard on every greek.

Decades is an exaggeration. Economies normally grow quite quickly on exiting a recession because there's a lot of slack capital and labour. Providing there are no serious fucks-ups during the actual exit process, if Greece kept 3% yearly growth rate after exiting recession it would have recovered in approximately a decade, rather than decades.

Still, almost 20 years (from 2007) of no improvement in living standards is almost unparalleled in the modern era.

 

[oti]

This discussion on Illner is pretty dumb. I feel like our discussion here is better. And these guys don't matter anyway.

 

[TCRS]

That means nothing. Greece is still fucked and still has no money. If people think this will go through without painful budget cuts they are being delusional.

 

[zou]

good, austerity doesn't work and 5 years of drastic cuts and human suffering is more than enough.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

That will surely get a great reaction by everyone outside of greece. Northern right wing parties will have a field day.

Oh, yes. Is there any way they won't?

 

[pigeon]

Because no one wants your Monopoly money? Why should I take your money if you just print more of it and make what I have worthless?

Because you still need it to pay taxes and fees to the government?

Almost every country in the world prints some amount of free money as part of their, you know, money manufacturing process. It's called seignorage. Doesn't seem to collapse any thrones.

In fact, aggressive inflation has ONLY happened in countries where the sovereign power to collect taxes was at risk -- Weimar Republic, Zimbabwe, etc.

 

[Relaxed Muscle]

That means nothing. Greece is still fucked and still has no money. If people think this will go through without painful budget cuts they are being delusional.

You mean the ones that took place for 5 years?

 

[PodcastFips]

This discussion on Illner is pretty dumb. I feel like our discussion here is better. And these guys don't matter anyway.

Jauch is actually quite interesting

 

[Deleted member 231381]

That means nothing. Greece is still fucked and still has no money. If people think this will go through without painful budget cuts they are being delusional.

Greece already runs a primary surplus. They have no money because a large part of their budget is taken up with debt repayment and they aren't in control of their own currency. Default and exit the Eurozone, and they're running a primary surplus that can be put to use on their own people, and not German bankers.

 

[oti]

Jauch is actually quite interesting

Ok, switching right now. Jauch is a Lauch but why not.

 

[nature boy]

Well then.

Nothing will happen.

 

[chadskin]

Jauch is actually quite interesting

And the rumblings of the thunderstorm over Berlin in the background fits superbly to the debate.

 

[pigeon]

I'm getting the distinct impression that people in Greece don't understand what's going on.

I mean, it's possible they do understand what's going on and they don't like it? The EU plan is basically for Greece to go into a depression that makes the Great Depression look like a not-so-great depression for the next, well, until the ECB decides to change the monetary policy, which, according to current evidence, they won't do until it's good for Germany.

I'd vote no on that too. Better an uncertain alternative to a certain catastrophe.

 

[Relaxed Muscle]

Nothing will happen.

Something will happen, it has too.

 

[elrechazado]

Greece already runs a primary surplus. They have no money because a large part of their budget is taken up with debt repayment and they aren't in control of their own currency. Default and exit the Eurozone, and they're running a primary surplus that can be put to use on their own people, and not German bankers.

you seem to be completely ignoring the impact of a default.

 

[ElTorro]

Finance minister Yanis Varoufakis has praised Greeks for the ‘brave decision’ to reject the bailout package proposed by lenders, calling it a “big yes for democratic Europe’.

I wonder if they all forget that all other 18 Eurozone members are answering to their electorate as well, of they just choose to ignore that in public statements.

The people in these other states are very much against lending Greece more money and against a debt relief, even though Greece is not able to pay the loans back. And the leaders of these states will have to answer to their own people, not to the people of Greece. I really don't see why the governments of these 18 states should give a sing fuck about the popular vote in Greece. Especially since some of these states have a worse standard of living than Greece and are paying anyway. And especially since Greece already received hundreds of billions of Euros in help and loans (which everybody knows will never be paid back in full), which is many, many times larger than something like the Marshall plan ever was. How do you want to sell that to your electorate without getting burned?

They already were under heavy criticism from home for the concessions they were willing to make. I really don't see why they would validate Tspiras' completely uncompromising negotiation strategy, especially after all the circus and demagogic rhetoric of the last days and weeks. There is no trust anymore between the negotiators.

Looks very much like Greece is heading for a Grexit. Judging from the tactics of Tspiras' government it looks like that's what he wanted all along. Now he can have it without taking responsibility for not fulfilling his pre-election promisees.

I hope that the EU will be able to organize help (medicine, energy, etc.) quickly, and that Greece will be in a much better shape a few years after the Grexit. And the rest of the Eurozone won't at least don't have to pretend anymore that the debts will be paid back.

 

[le-seb]

Greece already runs a primary surplus. They have no money because a large part of their budget is taken up with debt repayment and they aren't in control of their own currency. Default and exit the Eurozone, and they're running a primary surplus that can be put to use on their own people, and not German bankers.

Doesn't really compute with the BoG having no more cash left.

 

[Theonik]

That means nothing. Greece is still fucked and still has no money. If people think this will go through without painful budget cuts they are being delusional.

There isn't really anything left to cut. Even the EU leaders hinted to that before the referendum that because the Greek budgetary adjustments were so extreme, further cuts would not be harsh (they were probably trying to prevent a No vote but also hint that the cuts are negotiable)

 

[PodcastFips]

And the rumblings of the thunderstorm over Berlin in the background fits superbly to the debate.

Indeed

 

[Crosseyes]

Best of luck to the Greek people going forward. Can't blame them for going with the unknown when the known had been slowly driving them into the current crisis. I hope it works or else Golden Dawn type groups may be given the next opportunity to fix the country.

 

[Coriolanus]

Greece already runs a primary surplus. They have no money because a large part of their budget is taken up with debt repayment and they aren't in control of their own currency. Default and exit the Eurozone, and they're running a primary surplus that can be put to use on their own people, and not German bankers.

Yeah, but then creditors will offload the bad debt to vulture hedge funds that will sue the greek government in the US and seize my granny's pension. Next thing you know we'll have Argentina levels of unemployment and gdp contraction on top of zimbabwean hyperinflation.

 

[PdotMichael]

Because you still need it to pay taxes and fees to the government?

Almost every country in the world prints some amount of free money as part of their, you know, money manufacturing process. It's called seignorage. Doesn't seem to collapse any thrones.

In fact, aggressive inflation has ONLY happened in countries where the sovereign power to collect taxes was at risk -- Weimar Republic, Zimbabwe, etc.

No country replace loans with printing "free money".
That's nonsense.

 

[lazer_bean]

Because no one wants your Monopoly money? Why should I take your money if you just print more of it and make what I have worthless?

Ask Zimbabwe.

thats what all European countries did before it was decided they should stop and borrow with interest. You can't look at Europe and say that worked well (not for European people anyway). Do you know there was a time in Europe when debt could be managed. That was the time when countries didn't have to borrow from private banks.

Also inflation isn't bad in itsel: if you index-link wages (among other things) to inflation I don't see what the problem is. Again some European countries had this mechanism before the Euro. It was even recommended by Maurice Allais (Nobel Prize of economy in 1988)

You may not want that money but I don't see how it's preferable to accumulate debt to the point you can never pay it back, like any European country

 

[Kimawolf]

I heard Greece plans to join some kind of Orthodox financial block with Russia, Serbia and a few other countries, on NPR no less. This true?

 

[dabig2]

You mean the ones that took place for 5 years?

Gotta austere harder obviously.

 

[Madness]

So what are the best case and worst case scenarios?

Best case? Back to the negotiating table where they try and work out a solution acceptable to both sides (unlikely based on last several years of negotiation and austerity), worst case? Greece leaves the EU, unable to pay back any of the loans, bringing down the euro slightly as a currency, impacting European banks, Greece will suffer heavily as industries all but shutter. Maybe they'll apply for loans to help pay, maybe China and other creditors try and help. But a Grexit is looking very real. Plus short term, Greece will be in dire straits, but it could emerge long term better off.

This will be a blow to the EU though. The currency, the united political vision for the continent. Other countries are similar to Greece. Spain, Portugal, Ireland and others are not as bad as they were, but there is unease now.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

I mean, it's possible they do understand what's going on and they don't like it? The EU plan is basically for Greece to go into a depression that makes the Great Depression look like a not-so-great depression for the next, well, until the ECB decides to change the monetary policy, which, according to current evidence, they won't do until it's good for Germany.

I'd vote no on that too. Better an uncertain alternative to a certain catastrophe.

The sad thing is that it is close to inevitable this will happen again unless there is serious reform to the Eurozone. As long as the Eurozone is overvalued for the more agriculturally based European economies, they will continue to run trade deficits. As their monetary policy is fixed, this can only be accomodated for by running budget surpluses. When the next big recession happens, the odds that at least one country gets caught between running the sort of budget surplus that destroys its economy or choosing to default is quite high. And lo, we'll go through all the same old familiar motions again. My bet is on Portugal.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Yeah, but then creditors will offload the bad debt to vulture hedge funds that will sue the greek government in the US and seize my granny's pension. Next thing you know we'll have Argentina levels of unemployment and gdp contraction on top of zimbabwean hyperinflation.

I'm already being personally stalked by Lagarde. I'd take out a restraining order, but the European Union might declare war.

I mean, it's possible they do understand what's going on and they don't like it? The EU plan is basically for Greece to go into a depression that makes the Great Depression look like a not-so-great depression for the next, well, until the ECB decides to change the monetary policy, which, according to current evidence, they won't do until it's good for Germany.

I'd vote no on that too. Better an uncertain alternative to a certain catastrophe.

The sad thing is that it is close to inevitable this will happen again unless there is serious reform to the Eurozone. As long as the Euro is overvalued for the more agriculturally based European economies, they will continue to run trade deficits. As their monetary policy is fixed, this can only be accomodated for by running budget surpluses. When the next big recession happens, the odds that at least one country gets caught between running the sort of budget surplus that destroys its economy or choosing to default is quite high. And lo, we'll go through all the same old familiar motions again. My bet is on Portugal.