CVXFREAK said:
I think DQ8 will sell between 3 and 3.5 Million units. DQ7 sold 4,000,060 units, but with FFXII and other RPG titles coming out and the natural popularity decrease every game receives, I don't think DQ8 can sell as much as DQ7, but it's still indeed possible.
I don't think that other RPG titles have much of an effect on DQ8's sales potential. Final Fantasy IX came out around the same time as DQ7, and we all know that didn't slow it down. If anything it hurt FFIX. Dragon Quest is
the marquee console game in Japan. For Japanese gamers, DQ comes first, and I don't think they'll pass on purchasing it for some other RPG, not even FFXII. Beyond that, Japanese sales are heavily front loaded. DQ8 will have no trouble maxing out it's sales by the time FFXII launches months later. Square Enix is making sure they give the games enough space on the calander to avoid direct competition.
I'm not sure what you are basing the whole "natural popularity decrease every game receives" idea on though. Hasn't the Dragon Quest series seen escalating sales over the last few installments?
I personally think that Dragon Quest 8 would be primed to top its predecessor if it weren't for the afformentioned sagging market conditions. I believe videogame blockbusters like DQ, GTA, and Pokemon are reflections of the health of a market, and they are not necessarily selling solely on there own merits. Since they are
the game to own, they get an extensive boost in public awareness, creating a cycle that just pushes their sales even higher. Games in this position aren't really competing with other games in their genre, but are instead only restricted by the size of the market.
Your estimate for DQ8's sales is a good one, and has a strong chance of being correct. I'm a little bit more optimistic. I see sales a little bit north of 3.5 million, but probably not 4 million. Had the market been healthier, I would have predicted something between 5 and 6 million.
