Do we know how large the Steam install base is in Japan? My impression was it is growing, but small; however it is highly engaged, so more influential in driving third party decisions than pure size would indicate. Is that incorrect?
Well it's not Steam specifically, but PC's install base grew from ~ 5% a few years ago to 15.3% by 2024, so effectively tripled. Meanwhile, console's share stayed stagnant at ~ 20% during the same time frame (it might've dipped by 1%, not sure), and mobile decreased by something like 6%, but still holds the largest share by far.
It's fair to say that Steam is a major contributor to that PC growth in Japan, and it's probably helping quite a few Japanese multiplat releases hit or exceed sales targets via digital vs. physical sales ratio on PS5 heavily decreasing gen-over-gen (and console digital rate in Japan not being high enough to make up for physical drop).
Because if it remains true that the majority of the Japanese gaming population will prefer to play on consoles over PC, then even PC/PlayStation collaboration titles such as Tokon are going to be significant in driving the install base (all predicated on the games ultimately having broad domestic appeal, which I am assuming at least some will). It maximizes possible global adoption, is an easy way to placate the third party partner, is a concession that does not significantly undermine the value they perceive it brings to the ecosystem, and still has an impact as an exclusive in the domestic market, with minimal bleeding to the PC market.
Yes but the reason more Japanese gamers are gravitating to PC in the first place, is because of stuff like Tokon being available on PC. So you already have people who own both platforms, and now they're weighing the benefits of buying something like Tokon on PC vs a PS5, and end up choosing the former. Be it because it's cheaper, has free online, will inevitably have mod support not available on PS5, can run with better settings on a powerful rig, give a competitive advantage (lower latency monitors & higher refresh rates), more options for controllers/arcade sticks, and less worry about no longer having access if/when servers go offline...
...what I'm describing here is simple: due to various choices (or lack thereof) by SIE for the PS platform over the years, the more they keep releasing games like Tokon on console & PC, even in Japan, the more we're going to see gamers choose the latter. Provided the PC port isn't completely botched (and there's little reason it should be), the benefits of PC just continually outweigh those of console for a growing number of people. And a market like Japan isn't like one such as China, where official consoles were banned only until a few years ago, making it impossible to grow a customer base there.
It's why to some extent, I can understand SIE's PC initiative for markets like China or South Korea, but they would've been better off making those regional initiatives. They didn't need global Steam releases for their PC ports, but they did it anyway, and that's been gradually causing more and more issues with each new port.
It's not a bad strategy at all, I think it is far more effective than what they were trying with Final Fantasy, for example, and I wouldn't be surprised if we see a lot more of this going forward, and fewer third party collaborations that are timed PlayStation exclusives, such as Rise of the Ronin, Final Fantasy, etc.
This is where you and I just happen to differ. With FF in particular, the problem wasn't exclusivity, it was that SE delivered games that heavily divided the fanbase, may've been of questionable quality, and in the instances where they got everything right (Rebirth), paid the price due to prior brand rot and bad decisions. If SE want to blame low sales due to PS exclusivity that's their choice, but putting their FF games everywhere Day 1 won't magically boost sales. Meanwhile we've got games like Stellar Blade which not only didn't suffer due to timed exclusivity on PS5, but likely actually benefited by the time the PC version was released, as it's been selling faster on Steam vs. PS5 launch-aligned.
I agree insofar as we'll likely see less 3P timed exclusives, but not because such harms 3P sales. It'll be because those 3P won't have reason to when SIE themselves have shown an increased lack in supporting their own console with extended or full 1P exclusives. Why should 3P do what SIE don't do? OTOH, I
DO want to see SIE do more stuff like Tokon w/ 3P, and it'll be the way going forward in getting more published games out there. My thing is, they don't ALL have to be with PC support in mind, and that is my concern: that we'll see a lot such collabs that are "console exclusive" (as if that means much going forward) but otherwise are Day 1 on PC via Steam, so in a way SIE still kneecap their own console. What's more, that might just convince them to bring all their 1P Day 1 to PC as well, at which point, we're almost guaranteed to see a similar pattern of hardware slowdown and brand identity crisis for PS that we've been seeing Xbox go through.
I wonder if the rumoured PS5 Portable is Sony's attempt to get back in Japan.
I still recall how crazy the PS2 launch was there.
The portable is definitely part of an initiative to claw back some market relevancy in Japan. However, if the software situation remains as-is, a PS portable on its own won't do much.
It would struggle for the same reasons PS5 is: high prices relative alternatives, and lack of genuine exclusive games appealing highly to the Japanese market that are also mass-market friendly & family-friendly in most global markets. Nintendo have an advantage in price and a MASSIVE advantage when it comes to those types of genuine exclusives/IP, so it'd take a lot more than a new handheld to claw back anything significant.
But, it will certainly help as a solid first step, depending on how SIE pull it off.
Atlus like Nihon Falcom and others who make similar games usually have a lot of their fanbase on PS in Japan (Given that pretty much all their franchises have been PS exclusive for a long time). Raidou for example is a franchise that never had any history on a Nintendo console before it got ported to Switch/Switch 2 last week.
Oh, well in that case Raidou's Switch performance is REALLY good, then. Also shows how inept Atlus are being by still having no Switch/Switch 2 version of Metaphor available by now, or even announced. If they announce no port by TGS, I'm convinced Atlus just want Metaphor to fade away.