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With CES here and all this wonderful news about Crystal LED and OLED TVs... I can't help but sit here and wonder what it would really take for me to upgrade my set.
I've got 2 HDTVs in my house. Both were originally scoped to be the main TV in the house. The first one was my first HDTV. It did 1080p, had a couple HDMI ports...but was 40 inches. When we moved to our new house with a bigger family room, I needed a bigger one so I bought a newer HDTV that was 52 inches.
...that was the only reason I upgraded, though. Bigger room. Further viewing distance. Need bigger TV.
It seems like there are really only very specific reasons to upgrade your set, and I'm curious if anyone thinks any of these are especially compelling reasons:
Bigger TV
I'm willing to bet that there are people who bought early HDTVs that fit their budget, and this means that the TVs are probably smaller. People in the 32 to 40 inch crowd seem to be the ripest for an upgrade due to size...and even this may not be necessary depending on the space the TV is in. My older 40 inch TV was perfect for my smaller place back in the day, for instance, so I'd probably still be using it today if I still lived there.
This seems like you'd only really want to do it if you settled for a smaller TV up front, or moved into a bigger place later.
Resolution
A lot of the early sets had a max of 720p, and people are so used to being beaten over the head about 1080p that they may want to upgrade to get the added resolution. With 4K and 8K sets likely coming down the pipe, the resolution wars will push forward. I suspect people will not be largely motivated to upgrade based on these resolutions however, as broadcast TV would be crippled trying to support these resolutions, and physical media like Blu-Ray haven't exactly been a sweeping replacement of the old DVDs for a lot of people.
People with lower max resolutions may want to increase their resolution, but I suspect for a lot of people this isn't a strong motivating factor if they are satisfied with the physical size of their TV.
Plasma vs. LCD vs. Some Other Tech
People may have a desire to jump from LCD to Plasma or vice versa...and more recently people may be interested in LED vs. OLED vs. Crystal LED...but once again I submit that this is probably not of much concern to most people. The benefits of each tech are likely lost on the consumer, and at the end of the day they are more interested in price vs. size vs. resolution.
Smart TV Features
Having things like GoogleTV or DLNA or some other proprietary software package that allows you to do things like surf the web, check out Facebook, stream Netflix...more connected features. I could see these really striking a cord with people, but I don't think I've seen or heard of any manufacturer really hitting a homerun in this area that have caused customers to stand and take note. This seems like a value-add and not a decision making factor to me.
Misc Features
...what I'm really getting at is: I suspect that most consumers right now have no intention of ever upgrading their TV unless the size doesn't match their current need. Once they buy a set that is as big as they want, that would likely be the last set they buy until there is another fundamental shift in televisions as big as flatscreen or HD.
I've got 2 HDTVs in my house. Both were originally scoped to be the main TV in the house. The first one was my first HDTV. It did 1080p, had a couple HDMI ports...but was 40 inches. When we moved to our new house with a bigger family room, I needed a bigger one so I bought a newer HDTV that was 52 inches.
...that was the only reason I upgraded, though. Bigger room. Further viewing distance. Need bigger TV.
It seems like there are really only very specific reasons to upgrade your set, and I'm curious if anyone thinks any of these are especially compelling reasons:
Bigger TV
I'm willing to bet that there are people who bought early HDTVs that fit their budget, and this means that the TVs are probably smaller. People in the 32 to 40 inch crowd seem to be the ripest for an upgrade due to size...and even this may not be necessary depending on the space the TV is in. My older 40 inch TV was perfect for my smaller place back in the day, for instance, so I'd probably still be using it today if I still lived there.
This seems like you'd only really want to do it if you settled for a smaller TV up front, or moved into a bigger place later.
Resolution
A lot of the early sets had a max of 720p, and people are so used to being beaten over the head about 1080p that they may want to upgrade to get the added resolution. With 4K and 8K sets likely coming down the pipe, the resolution wars will push forward. I suspect people will not be largely motivated to upgrade based on these resolutions however, as broadcast TV would be crippled trying to support these resolutions, and physical media like Blu-Ray haven't exactly been a sweeping replacement of the old DVDs for a lot of people.
People with lower max resolutions may want to increase their resolution, but I suspect for a lot of people this isn't a strong motivating factor if they are satisfied with the physical size of their TV.
Plasma vs. LCD vs. Some Other Tech
People may have a desire to jump from LCD to Plasma or vice versa...and more recently people may be interested in LED vs. OLED vs. Crystal LED...but once again I submit that this is probably not of much concern to most people. The benefits of each tech are likely lost on the consumer, and at the end of the day they are more interested in price vs. size vs. resolution.
Smart TV Features
Having things like GoogleTV or DLNA or some other proprietary software package that allows you to do things like surf the web, check out Facebook, stream Netflix...more connected features. I could see these really striking a cord with people, but I don't think I've seen or heard of any manufacturer really hitting a homerun in this area that have caused customers to stand and take note. This seems like a value-add and not a decision making factor to me.
Misc Features
Contrast Ratio - This seems like one that people pay attention to, but I doubt is a make or break point for most people. I'm guessing most customers know that "more is better" and take leave it there.
Refresh Rate - Very few people really understand what increased refresh rates really means, and even when you do, there isn't a super strong case to be made for wanting to enter an arms race with refresh rates.
3D - This seems to have hit the market with a whimper. There doesn't seem to be any strong demand for 3D sets, although I don't think content providers are quite done pushing that content
Refresh Rate - Very few people really understand what increased refresh rates really means, and even when you do, there isn't a super strong case to be made for wanting to enter an arms race with refresh rates.
3D - This seems to have hit the market with a whimper. There doesn't seem to be any strong demand for 3D sets, although I don't think content providers are quite done pushing that content
...what I'm really getting at is: I suspect that most consumers right now have no intention of ever upgrading their TV unless the size doesn't match their current need. Once they buy a set that is as big as they want, that would likely be the last set they buy until there is another fundamental shift in televisions as big as flatscreen or HD.
