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[Tschumi]

In response to an open-ended thread OP which has gone off-track elsewhere on the board, here's an attempt at providing a framework for focused discussion.

This thread is concerned solely with events occurring within the borders, among the people of Afghanistan (or, you know, the UAE where their erstwhile leader just fled to) Because these people are the ones who deserve our time at this point.

What do you think's going to happen to:
- The women
- Children
- Education
- Leadership
- Sporting Representation for men OR women
- Cricket
- Pop culture
- News reporting
- Personal freedoms
- Stability
- Regional stability
- Potential source of future terrorism

I, we, will ignore anything US-, UK-centric, etc.

 

[Mohonky]

Total disaster; but inevitable. The government was never going to maintain control of Afghanistan. All the Taliban had to do is wait for others to move out. There's too much corruption and too many people indoctrinated into the Taliban hardline conservatism for the ANA to have ever stood a chance, at least whatever members actually wanted to fight anyway.

For the moment the Taliban know where there bread is buttered; it's better to put on a show letting other nations get expatriots out and present themselves as a more official governing body; but their roots are deeply in ultra conservative Islamic doctrine. Womens rights will be non-existent. Can't even begin to figure what they'll do about non-Muslims.

Short of being a straight male conservative Muslim, you're pretty well fucked.

I actually think some people will migrate there specifically because of it's strong Islamic conservatism, much like people did with ISIS. Hopefully, they stay there.

 

[Mohonky]

What do you think's going to happen to:
- The women / fucked
- Children / male? fine, female, fucked
- Education / most of it will be religious studies, there will be some actual education but much of the population will go uneducated
- Leadership / theology hell hole
- Sporting Representation for men OR women / lol, as if
- Cricket / nope
- Pop culture / you're joking right?
- News reporting / non-existent
- Personal freedoms / you're joking right?
- Stability / ironically, rather stable but with little liberty or rights
- Regional stability / ? with those around them you mean? same as always
- Potential source of future terrorism / tbh probably not as big a deal as you would think. if they have their little corner of the world they'll largely keep to it.

 

[nush]

As if this topic is going to play out any different.

 

[farmerboy]

I have no idea. But I hope for a moderate Taliban that acknowledges certain freedoms.

 

[Tschumi]

As if this topic is going to play out any different.

i figured the humane side of the conversation deserved a shot

 

[Atrus]

Afghanistan will revert to what it was 20 years ago except that there will be a more internationally recognized political entity in the Taliban that will deal with the worst regimes in the world. There will be more economic opportunities for the armed and well-connected as Chinese or Russian money flow in.

The Taliban will be focussed just on Afghanistan and brutalizing the people within, but foreign powers will use their young and now largely unemployed militants as a proxy force just like how Turkey uses Syrians.

A generation of Afghans who grew up not knowing life under the Taliban will have it worst because they will know of the freedoms they’ve lost.

 

[nush]

i figured the humane side of the conversation deserved a shot

 

[Amory]

I'm sure it's gonna be horrific once they settle in

 

[ForAcademicPurposes]

I feel so bad for afghani's - and most especially women and girls.

 

[haxan7]

I'm sure it's gonna be horrific once they settle in

I wonder if it will be any different this time with technology allowing the world to see firsthand what it’s like to live in an 8th century Islamic state.

Taliban rule in Afghanistan is not some unbroken chain since the days of Mohammed (which is what they’d like you to think); it’s an intentional creation of a group of individuals during the 20th century.

It’s already horrific, as we’ve seen in videos of the torture they’re currently inflicting on Afghanis they view as western collaborators. The question is: will it be allowed to continue?

 

[pramod]

Total disaster; but inevitable. The government was never going to maintain control of Afghanistan. All the Taliban had to do is wait for others to move out. There's too much corruption and too many people indoctrinated into the Taliban hardline conservatism for the ANA to have ever stood a chance, at least whatever members actually wanted to fight anyway.

For the moment the Taliban know where there bread is buttered; it's better to put on a show letting other nations get expatriots out and present themselves as a more official governing body; but their roots are deeply in ultra conservative Islamic doctrine. Womens rights will be non-existent. Can't even begin to figure what they'll do about non-Muslims.

Short of being a straight male conservative Muslim, you're pretty well fucked.

I actually think some people will migrate there specifically because of it's strong Islamic conservatism, much like people did with ISIS. Hopefully, they stay there.

But if you asked anyone 2 weeks ago, they wouldn't have said it was "inevitable". No one thought things would deteriorate so quickly.

 

[Bernd Lauert]

China will take over. They will flood the Taliban with cash in exchange for minerals and free trade. The Taliban in turn will use that cash to do what terrorists do. It's gonna be a proper shit show.

 

[nush]

I wonder if it will be any different this time with technology allowing the world to see firsthand what it’s like to live in an 8th century Islamic state.

China says ready for 'friendly relations' with Taliban after rout - France 24

China says ready for 'friendly relations' with Taliban after rout

www.france24.com

I'm sure they'll be taught how to make a great afghan firewall by their new bros.

 

[Tschumi]

China will take over. They will flood the Taliban with cash in exchange for minerals and free trade. The Taliban in turn will use that cash to do what terrorists do. It's gonna be a proper shit show.

hey now hey now , just 'cuz it's in the other direction doesn't mean that doesn't break our afghanistan-focused rule for this thread

i do wonder if the taliban will start doing a north korea and getting money via the black market and the like, afghanistan was for a long time a famous source of heroin, for example, from memory

 

[Mohonky]

But if you asked anyone 2 weeks ago, they wouldn't have said it was "inevitable". No one thought things would deteriorate so quickly.

Nope, I'd have said inevitable. Granted it happen faster than I expected, but it was inevitable.

 

[Lanrutcon]

On the one hand, you can lead a horse to water but you can't make it fight for its own freedom. The country has some deep seated issues.

On the other hand, I hear the folks taking over the country have found various gifts just waiting for them. Christmas came early this year, and in various calibres!

Oh, and obviously China are going to take advantage of the situation for years to come. It's just so perfect of an opportunity.

 

[belmarduk]

The Taliban rapidly advanced because the population of Afghanistan welcomed them with open arms. I'd suspect most Afghanis support the Taliban but the rest just wanted the war to be over. Who can blame them. That country has been at war since 1979 and this is the most united they've ever been.

 

[EviLore]

We’ll leave this one open conditionally.

 

[belmarduk]

We’ll leave this one open conditionally.

Thanks. I definitely understand why the politics forum had to be closed.. but its impossible to dismiss major world events like this.. its literally all people are talking about.

 

[Relativ9]

We really doing this?

It's not that the beliefs or the methods of the Taliban are necessarily so much worse than a lot of other governments in the area/world (looking at you Saudi Arabia), but because they are an internationally recognized terrorist force, they are never going to have any semblence of peace or stability in our time. Authoritarian regimes like this require one thing to function; a large amount of money. Some say China and Russia will provide this, and they might provide some through back-channels and the like, but most likely what's going to happen is that the Taliban is going to do some taliban-like shit, and the international community is going to sanction the fuck out of Afghanistan, so any hope they had of raising capital through the sale of natural gas, minerals, ect, will be lost because they'll have no one to sell to. They'll still have an upper class who lives in opulence of course, but they'll never have "nation building" kind of money, and thus will face continual rebellions, an infestation of crime, and large-scale use of opium (which is already a huge problem).

So you'll have a nation with ambition to rule its population with an iron fist based on medieval doctrines rooted on superstition rather than pragmatism, a population which now knows what it can be like under more moderate (though it's not like the US-supported government were bleeding-heart librals) regime, and almost no way to get meaningful inflow of capital. This is going to be a shitshow.

 

[Lukaku's First Touch]

Taliban is stronger than ever before, not sure where the hell they were all hiding when the US was there. Now they got US equipment en masse. Luckely they're too retarded to fly the planes/choppers.

I feel for the Afghani people. However I have no sympathy for the people that are begging the country they came from to get them back home. Only a full blown moron would go to afghanistan, especially in the last 2-3 weeks.
I'm Belgian and there are a bunch of people with 2 nationalities begging for our army to evacuate them. They only care about being Belgian when it suits them (benefits & shit like this). That said, I also don't want to be Belgian, but much less Afghani.

As for China, they'll just loot the countries resources and not give a shit about the people getting raped/murdered a volonté.

 

[Relativ9]

We’ll leave this one open conditionally.

Actually EviLore , I'm sure you guys have considered this already, but politics discussion with the express rule of "no culture wars" wouldn't be so bad would it? That would let us have conversations about major events like this one, without necessarily straying into woke/anti-woke left/right mudfights, I'm sure it'd be a pain in the ass to moderate so completely understandable if it's not worth the trouble, but I do miss being able to talk about and get peoples takes on major world events.

 

[FunkMiller]

The Taliban is a backwards cult of medieval religious zealots, who think everything should be done according to a book written thousands of years ago.

It‘s going to be a horror show, and anyone who thinks different hasn’t been paying attention to that part of the world for a long time.

Also, it’s far from over. The civil war will break out next, because it’s Afghanistan, and that’s what happens. Internecine warfare is a way of life.

Nothing changes in that country until they become less religious. Nothing.

 

[RaduN]

So many good replies here guys

It's gonna be bad, "one of the worst places on the planet" bad, and it will be set in stone at least for our lifetime.

 

[AfricanKing]

Let the Afghans deal with their own issues - The man power for the Taliban is low compared to their Army and they just rolled them completely. I doubt they put up a fight - most people just want some level of stability again.

 

[MightySquirrel]

Same thing as always imo. All american gov supporters who didn't manage to flee will be executed, little girls will be taken as spoils of war. The worst nightmare. When you live in western world it's really hard to place yourself there. Just imagine fearing for your life 24/7 and just for your own if you have children.

 

[HoodWinked]

They'll probably lay low for a short period and conveniently media will downplay the disaster to play cover for Biden then once the west gets bored of it, the real Taliban will begin and full on Sharia law implemented.

If a civil war were to occur it might even be within the Taliban and disagreement breaks out on how they want to split up thier spoils. These guys only know battle now they have to switch gears to presiding over a nation with no support it's gonna be fucked.

 

[Chankoras]

Less liberties, women's rights regression, lots of human rights violations specially against those who aided the "enemy", but maybe more long term stability due to draconian theocratic rule of law.

 

[Thirty7ven]

It looks like it will be hell on earth for anybody who isn't a man in a position of relative power. Who knows what happens in the far future, but it's not looking like a hopeful place anytime soon.

 

[Puncheur]

The writing was on the wall once the armed forces snuck out of Bagram Airbase in the middle of the night without any kind of handover. Shows how little confidence there was in the Afgan forces. Still, the lack of planning or foresight in getting people out sooner has been shocking to witness.
Love how the MSM are trying paint the taliban as moderates abd crossing their fingers thar everything turns out alright. Guy's you're clutching at straws, the taliban make nazis look like human rights activists.

It's amazing to see medieval men using smartphones. I always imagine what it would be like to go back in time with modern technology... the taliban is the answer.

 

[Kenpachii]

Its a good step forwards for the country. It's a step backwards for anybody that isn't a guy and likes the taliban.

Taliban will have to deal with
- keeping the country stable and not collapse in a million peaces.
- deal with more westernized population, 20 years of seeing outside there walls what the rest of the world is doing isn't going to be gone overnight. also entire generation of people grew up with a more western vision now which also will not dissapear over night. so they will have to modernize.
- They need young people and woman to keep there ecenomy rolling, which means its already progressing forwards.
- hopefully they can create a stable government where country's can deal with and create a working enviroment that slowlee will move forwards in time, china could be good in this support wise.
- not looking to good for the girls tho, if i had a girl or would be a girl i would be fleeing over anything else.

Will be interesting to see what is going to happen.

 

[Punished Miku]

Its been a broken mess the whole time. The only difference is that the generals and military industrial complex lied to everyone about that for 20 years and extracted billions from taxpayers for literally nothing.

The plan to leave was actually initiated by the previous administration. The current administration delayed it by several months and was actually criticized for that. The military never tried to help interpreters for 18 months.

The events unfolding are tragic but literally unavoidable. They're being hyped up as part of a large pro-war propaganda effort to justify endless war the next time. Leaving was the absolute right call. The mission was blown from the very start when we stopped hunting Bin Laden and started a whole 2nd war in Iraq for no reason then tried to nation build (the ultimate military contractor grift) for 20 years.

Face the tragedy and feel bad. But don't think for a second its the result of leaving. Its the result of arriving in the first place. After 20 years all that happened is we made the Taliban stronger, richer, and infinitely more equipped.

The military had 20 years to arrange protection for interpreters but instead kept them in Afghanistan for 2 decades and now exploit their tragic lives for pro war propaganda. Your emotions are being toyed with.

 

[Alx]

Honestly don't know.
In the short term it will most probably be bad especially for women, culture etc., even if they go with the "softer ^position" they're claiming.
On the long term one may hope that the Afghani population will progressively move towards more tolerant politics, but on their own initiative and on their own terms. Because it's clear that forcing it from external intervention doesn't work. Although my most optimistic projection would be that they'd be more like Saudi Arabia or Qatar, which aren't exactly my standard on human rights and tolerance.

 

[Ballthyrm]

I hope it teaches armies around the world that cover operations, cyber warfare, economic sanctions and strong borders patrol are the way to go.
Being the world police doesn't work, and now I'm very worried about the situation in Mali.
Offensives wars against Ideas and not nations are doomed to Fail.

All we can do is wait and let the Afghan sort themselves out.
The big winners in all of this are China and Russia.

 

[Tschumi]

We’ll leave this one open conditionally.

 

[Tschumi]

The Taliban is a backwards cult of medieval religious zealots, who think everything should be done according to a book written thousands of years ago.

It‘s going to be a horror show, and anyone who thinks different hasn’t been paying attention to that part of the world for a long time.

Also, it’s far from over. The civil war will break out next, because it’s Afghanistan, and that’s what happens. Internecine warfare is a way of life.

Nothing changes in that country until they become less religious. Nothing.

Have you read The Kite Runner? Afghanistan was pretty legit for a time before the Taliban , i think ..

That segue aside i agree with most of what you've said, fa shaw

 

[Lupingosei]

Nothing

While China says they want to go there, as soon as they go there and look at the infrastructure, it will all fall apart.

They don't want to invest 50 billion to build roads and mines to maybe get access to the resources.

Clans rule Afghanistan and what we call the Taliban are clans and without the US as the big enemy to unite them, they will have many infights for power.

There is not even close the stability for long-term investments. Without that, nothing will happen. The graveyard of empires will stay the graveyard of empires at the end of the world.

 

[FunkMiller]

On the long term one may hope that the Afghani population will progressively move towards more tolerant politics, but on their own initiative and on their own terms. Because it's clear that forcing it from external intervention doesn't work. Although my most optimistic projection would be that they'd be more like Saudi Arabia or Qatar, which aren't exactly my standard on human rights and tolerance.

Nope. Never going to happen. I don't think people quite realise how ultra, ultra religious The Taliban are, and for that matter a large majority of the Afghani people. And as you say, if you're most optimistic projection is Saudi Arabia, then that's hardly much of a step up.

We should never, ever have gone into the country, other than to prosecute the capture of Bin Laden. We have no fucking business being there, and never did. Afghanistan has a long, long history of being impossible to conquer, and impossible to govern.

This shit show started twenty years ago, and this latest dereliction of duty is just the sad, pathetic ending to a farce that should never have been allowed to happen.

 

[AJUMP23]

I think they will start with some moderate approaches but they are an Islamic caliphate and will celebrate the treatment of women as property and seek the death of the infidel. It would be better if they were a Saudi type country, but I don't think they have the resources. I also think they will become more beholden to China due to proximity and China making equitable trade with them.

 

[Thirty7ven]

Have you read The Kite Runner? Afghanistan was pretty legit for a time before the Taliban , i think ..

That segue aside i agree with most of what you've said, fa shaw

"Legit" as in places like Dubai where women can vote and all that but still needs the approval of a male guardian to pretty much do anything meaningful in life.

We keep applying different standards to these places, and our definition of "legit" would be completely rejected elsewhere.

PS. When you choose to reply with an emoji, the emoji represents how you feel, not how the poster feels. A lol emoji doesn't mean the author of the post is laughing, it means the person choosing the emoji is laughing. So when you choose triggered, it means you are triggered. That this isn't simple to understand is hilarious.

 

[poppabk]

The Taliban aren't a monolithic entity, now that the common enemy is gone, they will likely fracture back into regional warlords. The infighting as they do is going to be bad.

 

[FunkMiller]

The Taliban aren't a monolithic entity, now that the common enemy is gone, they will likely fracture back into regional warlords. The infighting as they do is going to be bad.

Control of opium and fractures in religious doctrine will certainly lead to more conflict.

Unfortunately for all the innocent people in that country, the only thing the rest of us can do is sit back and watch them bomb each other into non-existence, and hope a more modern, less backward society emerges from the rubble.

 

[Porcile]

It is fucked. No way they can maintain stability. Everyone is going to be wanting a piece of that pie.

 

[Methos#1975]

I wish Biden would of handled this better. He should of kept the military in place and started getting civilians, contractors, diplomats, and Afghans with strong connections to us out first and all who didnt wish to be under Taliban while the military held Kabul and ensured their safety and then pulled the military out. What sickens me is how we just fucked our allies completely over and had zero plan of egress for them. You would of thought we learned from Saigon. I made a few good friends with Afghans while over there and now it's like, we'll, they are probably dead or will be now.

I think we also need to seriously carpet bomb the hell out of Bagram and deny it to the Taliban. We should of did that the minute the Afgan military surrendered. It's insane to me that we didn't because in both Iraq and Afgan while deployed there, we were constantly hammered by command to deny them anything if we thought we would be captured. We were issued grenades specifically meant to be used to destroy ourselves and our equipment if capture was inevitable. But Biden just hands them a full base. Insane.

 

[The Cockatrice]

America sucks or at least its politics.

 

[nush]

While China says they want to go there, as soon as they go there and look at the infrastructure, it will all fall apart.

They don't want to invest 50 billion to build roads and mines to maybe get access to the resources.

Look at how China invested in Africa, they'll think the same playbook will work in this case as well. It's even better for China, they share a border with Afghanistan. All they need to build is a road from the resources to the China border. Set up some worker pop up towns near those resources that look very nice and inviting and milk the place dry. China knows all they have to do is throw money at they key people and not the whole country.

 

[Tschumi]

. That this isn't simple to understand is hilarious.

Unless it's written somewhere i haven't seen it, It's open to interpretation, or contextual interpretation. That you think your interpretation is law is a few farts shy of hilarious. Either way, you seem to have got my point, so I'll pat myself in the back for that

Posters 45 and 46

 

[Thirty7ven]

Unless it's written somewhere i haven't seen it, It's open to interpretation, or contextual interpretation. That you think your interpretation is law is a few farts shy of hilarious. Either way, you seem to have got my point, so I'll pat myself in the back for that

It's not open to interpretation which is why they are reactions and not labels. It's your reaction to a post, not a review of a post. Clearly you were the one triggered by what I said, as I wasn't triggered by the OP. But because you were triggered I tried to understand why, and have edited my post to not include material outside the scope of the thread's premise.

Just having a conversation here, you can keep doing what you want of course.

 

[Tschumi]

It's not open to interpretation which is why they are reactions and not labels. It's your reaction to a post, not a review of a post. Clearly you were the one triggered by what I said, as I wasn't triggered by the OP. But because you were triggered I tried to understand why, and have edited my post to not include material outside the scope of the thread's premise.

Just having a conversation here, you can keep doing what you want of course.

Re read the last paragraph of the post which i thought exhibited your being triggered.

Jah bless.