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How do you think the Supreme Court Will Rule on Prop 8

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Bombadil

Banned
Here are my predictions based on some context.

Will Uphold Previous Ruling (that struck down Prop 8)

Ruth Bader Ginsburg: Jewish, appointed by Clinton, Democrat, pro-choice; she once attended a Red Mass with the other Justices and refused to go again because it was blatantly against women's right to an abortion. I believe she'll support the previous ruling to strike down Prop 8.

Stephen Gerald Bryer: appointed by Clinton, generally viewed as a liberal, has consistently voted in favor of abortion rights, doesn't construe the constitution with an "originalist" lens; considered to be Scalia's counterweight. Will most likely support the previous ruling to strike down Prop 8.

John G Roberts: Chief Justice, appointed by George W. Bush, viewed as a conservative, believes the decision of Roe V. Wade is a settled law and that nothing in his personal views would hinder his upholding of it. Wasn't very explicit, though. Voted in favor of the Partial Abortion Ban Act. I'm not sure how he'll vote but I think he would uphold the previous ruling because it presents an issue for the Equal Protection Clause of the 14th Amendment, which he has referenced before in his opinions regarding Brown v. Board education and the deliberate assignment of students into schools based on race to ensure integration. He agreed with the Brown V. Board ruling based on the circumstances of the time period, but didn't think that in the present time race should be an issue regarding the placement of students. For this reason, I believe he will uphold the ruling against Prop 8 because the circumstances present another civil rights issue.

Sonia Sotomayor: Catholic, appointed by Obama, regarding abortion she agreed with a Bush Administration policy (prior to her Supreme court appointment): "Mexico City Policy, which states that "the United States will no longer contribute to separate nongovernmental organizations which perform or actively promote abortion as a method of family planning in other nations."[Sotomayor held that the policy did not constitute a violation of equal protection, as "the government is free to favor the anti-abortion position over the pro-choice position, and can do so with public funds."
Also very important is that Sotomayor's votes are in line with the votes of Ginsburg and Breyer 90 percent of the time. I believe she'll vote to uphold the previous ruling that struck down Prop 8.

Elena Kagan: Jewish, appointed by Obama, was a dean for Harvard law school. Notable views on gay rights can be derived from this: "During her deanship, Kagan upheld a decades old policy barring military recruiters from the Office of Career Services because she felt that the military's "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" policy discriminated against gays and lesbians. According to Campus Progress." Don't know much else about her views. I think she'll vote the uphold the previous ruling.

Anthony Kennedy: Roman Catholic,appointed by Reagan, historically a swing-vote justice, would uphold Roe V. Wade but with some conditions, believes the right to an abortion is constitutionally protected by the 14th Amendment, Kennedy's decision on cases regarding homosexuality are mixed. He invalidated a provision in Colorado constitution that had denied the right of homosexuals to file discrimination claims. He wrote the court opinion for a ruling that invalidated Sodomy laws. However, "In the 2000 case of Boy Scouts of America v. Dale, Kennedy voted, with four other justices, to uphold the Boy Scouts of America's organizational right to ban homosexuals from being scoutmasters." But most importantly, this: Judge Vaughn R. Walker, who overturned Proposition 8, cited Kennedy's writings several times in his opinion the case, thus creating a precedent for when this case would head to the Supreme Court. It is the case that those against Proposition 8 feel that Kennedy will share their views.



Won't Uphold Previous Ruling (In favor of Prop 8)

Antonin Scalia: Roman Catholic, highly conservative in his views, opposed to affirmative action, appointed by Reagan. He doesn't believe in a living constitution, so he tries to interpret the Constitution based on what he believes the intent of the original writers was. He doesn't believe in a constitutional right to abortion and believes it's up to the states to individually pass laws to legalize abortion. He wants to strike down Roe V. Wade. He doesn't agree with any laws that make gender distinctions (which, outside of all other context would mean he wouldn't support Prop 8, right?)

Clarence Thomas: Roman Catholic, appointed by George H.W. Bush, historically, he and Scalia's decisions are aligned to a very high percentage. He agrees with Scalia that the right to an abortion is not constitutionally protected. On gay issues, Thomas' views are somewhat mixed. He criticized a sodomy law in Texas, and wrote a dissenting opinion it. However, he stated that the issue was up to the states, thus we need to consider how he will view Prop 8. He may criticize it but vote in favor of it simply to remain consistent. On a controversial Colorado law that forbade the protection of persons from discrimination based on sexual orientation and homosexual relationships, Thomas sided with Scalia in saying that the law did not violate the 14th Amendment's Equal Protection clause. So, for that reason, I feel Thomas would support Prop 8.

Samuel Alito: Catholic, appointed by George W. Bush, important: "At Princeton, Alito led a student conference in 1971 called "The Boundaries of Privacy in American Society" which, among other things, supported curbs on domestic intelligence gathering, called for the decriminalization of sodomy, and urged for an end to discrimination against gays in hiring by employers." Regarding Roe V. Wade, Alito believes some restrictions on abortion are constitutionally permitted. Has been known to side with Scalia and Thomas. I believe he'll side with them again on this issue.

So, 6-3. What do you guys think?
 

pigeon

Banned
Decline cert. Safest approach for them -- even if they reverse the decision, Prop 8's days are numbered; the decision is very narrow; and Gill v. OPM just got decided as well and actually relates to a federal law, while Perry is a state law. Especially if the mandate bites it, SCOTUS has been sticking their fingers into a lot of beehives lately and could use a break from controversy, especially one changing as rapidly as gay marriage.
 
Ginsburg, Bryer, Sotomayor and Kagan are locks I think so we only need one of the other two guys you mentioned. I'm pretty optimistic.
 

Gaborn

Member
So, 6-3. What do you guys think?

Very thorough and I agree with you (though I'm marginally less confident in Kennedy despite his recent pro-gay rights voting). You did miss one interesting fact about Roberts though that most likely means nothing but is worth mentioning in an analysis like this. Roberts worked pro-bono in the Romer v Evans case (one of the most important pro-gay precedents of course) on the side of the plaintiffs (the "good" side). Whether that has any weight or not ultimately in the Prop 8 case is doubtful, but it's certainly not a bad sign.
 

Volimar

Member
Very thorough and I agree with you (though I'm marginally less confident in Kennedy despite his recent pro-gay rights voting). You did miss one interesting fact about Roberts though that most likely means nothing but is worth mentioning in an analysis like this. Roberts worked pro-bono in the Romer v Evans case (one of the most important pro-gay precedents of course) on the side of the plaintiffs (the "good" side). Whether that has any weight or not ultimately in the Prop 8 case is doubtful, but it's certainly not a bad sign.

No idea why, but this made me LOL. Btw, I like the OP's reasoning, and I agree with you, if they have the balls to even take up the argument.
 

Ezduo

Banned
Ruth Bader Ginsburg: Jewish, appointed by Clinton, Democrat, pro-Abortion; she once attended a Red Mass with the other Justices and refused to go again because it was blatantly pro-Abortion. I believe she'll support the previous ruling to strike down Prop 8.

Pro-abortion? Is this just a substitute for pro-choice or something else?
 

Bombadil

Banned
Pro-abortion? Is this just a substitute for pro-choice or something else?

Sorry, I meant to write pro-choice.

I wasn't trying to make a subtle statement with that. I'm pro-choice, myself.

Anyway, I chose to expound upon their views on abortion because for one wikipedia seems to have more info on their views regarding that than on their views regarding civil rights for LGBTs. And secondly, I think one's views on abortion would be highly correlated with their views on civil rights for LGBTs.
 

zoku88

Member
Sorry, I meant to write pro-choice.

I wasn't trying to make a subtle statement with that. I'm pro-choice, myself.

Anyway, I chose to expound upon their views on abortion because for one wikipedia seems to have more info on their views regarding that than on their views regarding civil rights for LGBTs. And secondly, I think one's views on abortion would be highly correlated with their views on civil rights for LGBTs.

I was wondering if the Prop 8 you were referencing was the same thing I was thinking of them. Throughout the OP, I was wondering "wait, is there some other Prop 8 about abortion?", haha
 

ivysaur12

Banned
Or they don't grant it cert.

The case was decided so narrowly in the 9th that it will be hard to vote against it. It's non-sweeping, confident, and bides the court time to have public opinion grow.

But yes, it's likely Kennedy and Roberts will join the more liberal majority in this particular instance. I don't think that Alito is out of the question either, at least not int he ways in which that Scalia will be. Honestly? Everyone might be in play besides Scalia and Thomas.
 

gcubed

Member
i have no doubt it will be at the minimum 6-3 upholding the previous ruling. People use the conservative/liberal judgement too widely for these justice in regards to human rights issues.
 

ivysaur12

Banned
I expect they'll uphold the ban because they're shitheads.

Do you say that because of a knowledge of their past precedence on gay rights and privacy cases, or just based on a perception of the SCOTUS?

i have no doubt it will be at the minimum 6-3 upholding the previous ruling. People use the conservative/liberal judgement too widely for these justice in regards to human rights issues.

Exactly. I don't think there's any doubt where Kennedy will lean, especially since it's so limited in scope.
 
Decline cert. Safest approach for them -- even if they reverse the decision, Prop 8's days are numbered; the decision is very narrow; and Gill v. OPM just got decided as well and actually relates to a federal law, while Perry is a state law. Especially if the mandate bites it, SCOTUS has been sticking their fingers into a lot of beehives lately and could use a break from controversy, especially one changing as rapidly as gay marriage.

If I had to guess, I'd agree with this.
 
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