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[kumanoki]

Will we see thousands of copies of E.T. for the PSP or DS being shovelled into a landfill at some point soon? With three companies (they are competing, no matter what the CEOs say) pumping out new games, new consoles, re-makes, etc., do you think the gaming industry will create a flooded market? Another Atari-like market crash?

Discuss.

 

[Mr Nash]

It can't be far off. The industry would be in better shape if game releases were more spread out, instead of cramming 90% of the releases into the 4th quarter. >_<

 

[soundwave05]

Well not really.

What I think you're seeing is some games are suffering lower sales because of market oversaturation though -- Metroid Prime 2, Project: Gotham Racing 2, and Metal Gear Solid 3 for instance are all sequels which had lower sales than their predacessors or are on pace to have lower sales.

But you know I think of it kinda like the movie business. Back in the day it seemed like there were 3-4 "must see" movies every summer, now its like there's 3-5 "big" movies opening every month during the period between April and August.

What's happened because of that is now movies make most of their money on the opening weekend and then fizzle after that or some hyped "blockbusters" like King Arthur just don't find an audience.

 

[Unison]

All the developers will go bankrupt and EA will buy all their corpses in about a week or two.

 

[Grubdog]

No.

I'll make up my mind about that when I see what the next gen home consoles are like. If they are just like the current ones but with better graphics, then it's a bad sign. Revolution is guaranteed to have more than just better graphics so i'm excited to see how that turns out, knowing Nintendo it could be something stupid like controllers with a bunch of screens on them or it could be something really awesome like... I can't even imagine.

 

[kumanoki]

GAF is the consummate gamer, really. We know we'll buy and play. But what about John Q. Uninformed Public? I think a lot of people are going to see five home consoles and three or four handhelds, and the same games being sold for all of them, and just give the fvck up.

 

[paul777]

With the increased costs of next-gen development and inevitable consolidation, I don't think a flood is likely at all.

 

[kumanoki]

With the increased costs of next-gen development and inevitable consolidation, I don't think a flood is likely at all.

Can you elaborate on that a little bit?

 

[Rhindle]

He means that games on next-gen platforms will be more expensive to develop, so publishers will need to spend more money on fewer games.

 

[Jonnyram]

Well as long as Noah comes along and buys two copies of everything to store in his gaming Ark for safekeeping, everything will be ok.

It's funny, I was having this conversation with DCharlie yesterday. When I read that Sony are sorting out a plant that will produce 10 million PSPs a year, I asked if they were going to bury them all next to the ET carts. I don't think it's much of a problem with software nowadays because they can be produced quickly and an order could be turned round in a week if demand exists. Hardware could be the big problem though.

 

[Unison]

He means that games on next-gen platforms will be more expensive to develop, so publishers will need to spend more money on fewer games.

... and when those ultra-expensive games bomb, the world as we know it ends.

 

[kumanoki]

From a consumer standpoint, do you think the next gen consoles and big titles will be enough of a draw for the casual consumer base?

In the past, we've seen the market invigorated by three things:

1. Improved graphics

2. Strong titles

3. Portability

Are the multi-purpose consoles of the future going to have the draw? What will they need to appeal to the average consumer? Alternately, do you think multi-purpose consoles have the potential to turn off average consumers if the consoles are too busy?

 

[nfreakct]

With the increased costs of next-gen development and inevitable consolidation, I don't think a flood is likely at all.

I personally expect another gaming crash within the next 5 years, with next-generation development costs so enormously expensive that when it comes, major publishers will go under en masse.

 

[maynerd]

I personally expect another gaming crash within the next 5 years, with next-generation development costs so enormously expensive that when it comes, major publishers will go under en masse.

IAWTP

 

[SatelliteOfLove]

GAF is the consummate gamer, really. We know we'll buy and play. But what about John Q. Uninformed Public? I think a lot of people are going to see five home consoles and three or four handhelds, and the same games being sold for all of them, and just give the fvck up.

Maybe not 5 home consoles, but the ones we have now show no signs of backing down this generation or the next.

It's the one thing that worries me, in this day and age when consoles are dirt cheap and multiplatforming has been at an all-time high, fanboyism seems to be rejuvinating from a lull after the GC/Xbox release shitstorm. I wouldn't doubt that the sheer number of exclusives this quarter, (proportionate to the increased number of titles period), have fueled this. Winners and losers should've been decided by now, and it just ain't happening.

And what's this over the horizon, pitifully concealed by blabber-mouthed PR heads? Why it's the next generation of consoles! So advanced, what with their revolutionary celled xenons and what-not, it looks like the new boss is same as the old boss in the next few years. Money constraints for your average gamer might even be harsher than now if he/she has varied tastes.

 

[kumanoki]

Money constraints for your average gamer might even be harsher than now if he/she has varied tastes.

Ooo. I think it may come down to this point.

For the hardcore gamer, here is a simple math problem:

spending money + need to stay 'current' - lack of time = ?

 

[Late Stage Marxist]

It's true that the industry is growing and that some of the smaller development houses might have trouble keeping up next generation, but they will always have the portable devices to fall back on. The pattern has always been that the successes more than make up for the failures, so I don't foresee a crisis in the near future.

 

[PC Gaijin]

No crash. The market will continue to grow and expand. Companies will come and go, but people will continue to play games. This same doom and gloom has been predicted whenever the time comes to transition between generations, and it never comes to pass.