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[Randolph Freelander]

TD Ameritrade

I wouldn't pay the fee, that's for sure. I've tried doing some basic research there, but I find their site quite unusable in that it mostly wants to funnel you into opening an account, and I'm not going to do that. That said, I did find that they offer a number of mutual funds with no loads or transaction fees, so you might research further to see if they offer funds that resemble the Vanguard total stock market fund (or if you could piece something like that together, with a combination of funds that cover large, mid, and small caps).

But if it comes down to it, I'd go with the VTI ETF and just reinvest dividends when I can cover it, even if that means waiting until I make my next contribution.

If you assumed straight-line growth (wouldn't happen that way, but let's roll with it) of 9% over the course of the year, and you assume a 2% dividend yield paid out at 0.5% at the end of each quarter, and if you have a roughly $5500 starting investment in the ETF, then by not being able to immediately reinvest those dividends, you're foregoing about $3.71 in growth*. Compare that to paying out a $50 fee up front, and to me the choice is clear. As your balance grows with additional contributions and market growth, you'll be able to start reinvesting dividends during the year and give up less growth going forward.

---------------------------
*Growth would happen like so
1st quarter dividend : 27.50, 9% growth for 3/4 of year = ~1.86
2nd quarter dividend: 27.50, 9% growth for 2/4 of year = ~1.24
3rd quarter dividend: 27.50, 9% growth for 1/4 of year = ~0.62
4th quarter dividend: End of year, no growth = 0.00

 

[Prax]

Hey Canada Financial-GAF, I want to ask about what you think of roboadvisors?

I was looking at Wealthsimple and Nestwealth, trying to figure out if maybe that would be a better choice for me down the line.

Even if I were to understand the basics of ETF trading or buying TD e-shares, there's the fact that I am SUPREMELY LAZY and don't' want to deal with rebalancing and other fancy stuff like tax-loss harvesting myself. Right now, a lot of my stuff is in Tangerine Funds because that was the easiest option, but I see that maybe a roboadvisor would save me more on fees. (I think the total fees on top of stock MER would be less than 1%.. probably closer to .5-.7%).

 

[tokkun]

TD Ameritrade

Have you considered just opening a Vanguard account if you want to invest in their funds? You can even keep the existing account at TDA if you want to. There is no limit on the number of IRAs you can have - just keep in mind that the contribution limit is spread across all of the accounts.

Or alternatively you could just transfer the funds to Vanguard.
https://investor.vanguard.com/account-transfer/transfer-ira

 

[PflargBlarg]

Hey Canada Financial-GAF, I want to ask about what you think of roboadvisors?

I was looking at Wealthsimple and Nestwealth, trying to figure out if maybe that would be a better choice for me down the line.

Even if I were to understand the basics of ETF trading or buying TD e-shares, there's the fact that I am SUPREMELY LAZY and don't' want to deal with rebalancing and other fancy stuff like tax-loss harvesting myself. Right now, a lot of my stuff is in Tangerine Funds because that was the easiest option, but I see that maybe a roboadvisor would save me more on fees. (I think the total fees on top of stock MER would be less than 1%.. probably closer to .5-.7%).

Kind of depends. Rebalancing is like a once a year thing and it's supremely easy if you're just using our standard 2-3 fund portfolios. You also won't get into tax-loss harvesting until you max out your RRSP and TFSA.

I think the only time I would think about it is for once I max those out, the tax loss harvesting could potentially cover the roboadvisor additional fees. I just like doing it myself.

 

[Prax]

Kind of depends. Rebalancing is like a once a year thing and it's supremely easy if you're just using our standard 2-3 fund portfolios. You also won't get into tax-loss harvesting until you max out your RRSP and TFSA.

I think the only time I would think about it is for once I max those out, the tax loss harvesting could potentially cover the roboadvisor additional fees. I just like doing it myself.

Thanks for the insight. I am definitely nowhere near maxxing out.

I feel like I might not be able to avoid jiggling around with the amounts and trying to time the markets once I get to the rebalancing part. I just want someone else to do these things for me because all I want to do is put money in each month and not think about it, but buying ETFs itself are a manual thing instead of a "take out of my paycheck and make it happen!" thing.
Even the thought of eventually liquidizing/transferring all my funds over to ETFs seems like a hassle.

As you can see, this is why I am trying to opt for the laziest option possible. The more moving parts there are, the more chances I will have to neglect it/procrastinate. I am probably not as on-the-ball as a lot of you guys are.
Can I just pay someone to do "everything necessary" set-up wise for me and do all the forms and paperwork for me too? I had been eyeing the Canadian Couch Potato's one-time set-up thing, but I think they are waitlisting now. xD

 

[tokkun]

Thanks for the insight. I am definitely nowhere near maxxing out.

I feel like I might not be able to avoid jiggling around with the amounts and trying to time the markets once I get to the rebalancing part. I just want someone else to do these things for me because all I want to do is put money in each month and not think about it, but buying ETFs itself are a manual thing instead of a "take out of my paycheck and make it happen!" thing.
Even the thought of eventually liquidizing/transferring all my funds over to ETFs seems like a hassle.

As you can see, this is why I am trying to opt for the laziest option possible. The more moving parts there are, the more chances I will have to neglect it/procrastinate. I am probably not as on-the-ball as a lot of you guys are.
Can I just pay someone to do "everything necessary" set-up wise for me and do all the forms and paperwork for me too? I had been eyeing the Canadian Couch Potato's one-time set-up thing, but I think they are waitlisting now. xD

Avoiding this tinkering impulse is why I recommend Target Date funds to most people. Does Canada not have the equivalent to that?

 

[Prax]

Avoiding this tinkering impulse is why I recommend Target Date funds to most people. Does Canada not have the equivalent to that?

I actually don't think there are good ones available unless it's a company plan?
I read through comments sections in the Canadian Couch Potato where one guy was bragging about his Mawer fund performance, but I think that's an actively managed fund (but a relatively low fee?).

I know I tried to look into the Vangaurd equivalent for here, but they don't offer it.. (yet..)

 

[PflargBlarg]

Avoiding this tinkering impulse is why I recommend Target Date funds to most people. Does Canada not have the equivalent to that?

Can confirm that in Canada, you only have access to Vanguard (and other) target date funds through corporate retirement plans.

In any case Prax, doing something consistently is certainly better than doing nothing so I can see no problem with you using a roboadviser if that's what it will take to keep yourself in check

As long as you're aware that the fees will be somewhat higher and you can accept that, it's all good.

I suggest reading through this post http://youngandthrifty.ca/complete-guide-to-canadas-robo-advisors/ and perhaps check out this calculator https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...op6cpNCF0tTo/edit?pref=2&pli=1#gid=1947758454

WealthSimple or WealthBar seem like good options.

 

[Prax]

^ NICE! Thank you!
Will take a look over after work!

 

[Moppet13]

By "ease of reinvestment" do you mean reinvesting dividends? Because you can do that with an ETF, at least I can on Schwab where I toggle the yes-no on "reinvest?". You can only buy in even shares, but when it reinvests dividends you do end up with .3921 of a share or whatever.

Really? I was under the impression it was only whole shares like what the other user was saying.

 

[nillapuddin]

Hello all, I've read through the first few pages or so and I'm really trying to soak it all in.

I'm starting a new contracted job next month and I'm in a position to have a 401k and all this jazz for the first time.

If I have specific questions are we allowed to share age, projected income, hypothetical investment figures?

I'm just curious, obviously I don't want a ton of real personal info out there, but I just want to get the most info I can so I take advantage of my situation. Thanks in advance.

 

[anonymous_abc]

If I have specific questions are we allowed to share age, projected income, hypothetical investment figures?

Sure what you want to share with us is up to you.

 

[Walter White Walker]

Really? I was under the impression it was only whole shares like what the other user was saying.

As I understand it depends on the ETF and the brokerage if you can reinvest dividends automatically and it buys partial shares but yes it's possible - I have for example partial shares of SCHB because of dividends. Also I'd make sure the brokerage you're with has free dividend reinvestment on whatever ETF you're interested in.

 

[nillapuddin]

Sure what you want to share with us is up to you.

Okay very cool.

Next week I have a meeting where bb&t (my company's bank) and an ADP rep are gunna give us their sales pitch for using their programs for retirement. So I'll have all that info soon, I just really want to crush this thing, I don't have alot of family that would know this kinda things so I'll be happy with whatever help I can get.

 

[PflargBlarg]

Well guys.

Good news is that I have finally sold my condo which has been a pain in the ass for various reasons over 6 years.

Bad news is that I'm just breaking even. Or rather, I WOULD be breaking even except

• The tenant I had before fled the country leaving me stuck with legal fees and no rental income to the tune of 6000 or so dollars
• The mortgage cancellation penalty is literally over 9000

But in the end, I'm happy that it's over and I can now put this money properly towards investments and things.

 

[Piecake]

Well guys.

Good news is that I have finally sold my condo which has been a pain in the ass for various reasons over 6 years.

Bad news is that I'm just breaking even. Or rather, I WOULD be breaking even except

• The tenant I had before fled the country leaving me stuck with legal fees and no rental income to the tune of 6000 or so dollars
• The mortgage cancellation penalty is literally over 9000

But in the end, I'm happy that it's over and I can now put this money properly towards investments and things.

Ouch, that sucks. This, the hassle, and rental properties being a very illiquid asset are the reasons why I really have no desire to buy rental properties.

My mistakes as an early investor were in individual stocks. It was a stressful experience where I had some winners and some losers, the end result being is that I don't think I made all that much money from it, and me picking a few real losers and being stressed over it the whole time really put me off to the whole prospect. After that, I started looking for a better way to invest for me.

I know some people recommend or like having a fun money investing account for individual stocks, but man, I did not find that fun at all. It just felt like gambling, and I have never found gambling all that fun.

 

[Cyan]

I know some people recommend or like having a fun money investing account for individual stocks, but man, I did not find that fun at all. It just felt like gambling, and I have never found gambling all that fun.

It should only be a recommendation for people who would otherwise have trouble sensibly investing. Otherwise it's just wasted money.

 

[Wellington]

Well guys.

Good news is that I have finally sold my condo which has been a pain in the ass for various reasons over 6 years.

Bad news is that I'm just breaking even. Or rather, I WOULD be breaking even except

• The tenant I had before fled the country leaving me stuck with legal fees and no rental income to the tune of 6000 or so dollars
• The mortgage cancellation penalty is literally over 9000

But in the end, I'm happy that it's over and I can now put this money properly towards investments and things.

Wonderful opportunity

 

[PflargBlarg]

Honestly, I would have been ok with the owning property situation except that I do not exaggerate when I say the tenant literally lost her mind.

She was divorced and was apparently unable to see her kids. At some point in December she fell and hit her head leading to some kind of mental break. She drove all the way to LA, taking almost nothing with her (seriously, the apartment still had almost all of her stuff in it) in some delusional quest to become an actor so that her ex-husband and kids would think she was 'cool' and let her see them.

I look at her (public) facebook page every now and then to see what's up. She writes open letters to celebrities on her own page, has burned through all her money, and is now illegally working at some auto shop in LA.

I considered a small claims case but even if she does eventually come back from the states she's not going to have any money to take.

It's been a very bizarre period in my life.

 

[Chris R]

So with the Brexit happening, should I look at divesting from Europe for the short term? Like 6 months or so?

 

[iamblades]

So with the Brexit happening, should I look at divesting from Europe for the short term? Like 6 months or so?

I think it's too late if you haven't already done it if you think this is going to be the end of it, the worst of it is going to be the market open tomorrow probably.

However if you think there is a potential for the EU to failure cascade because of this(I don't really know enough about the inner workings of the EU to judge this) then it could possibly be a good move.

Honestly, I would have been ok with the owning property situation except that I do not exaggerate when I say the tenant literally lost her mind.

She was divorced and was apparently unable to see her kids. At some point in December she fell and hit her head leading to some kind of mental break. She drove all the way to LA, taking almost nothing with her (seriously, the apartment still had almost all of her stuff in it) in some delusional quest to become an actor so that her ex-husband and kids would think she was 'cool' and let her see them.

I look at her (public) facebook page every now and then to see what's up. She writes open letters to celebrities on her own page, has burned through all her money, and is now illegally working at some auto shop in LA.

I considered a small claims case but even if she does eventually come back from the states she's not going to have any money to take.

It's been a very bizarre period in my life.

Yeah I would never directly invest in rental properties, I just don't have time for that kind of drama. I'll stick to REIT index funds for my real estate exposure.

 

[Randolph Freelander]

Don't panic tomorrow, folks.

CNBC Now ‏@CNBCnow 7m7 minutes ago
BREAKING: Dow futures plummet 600 points as ITV, BBC project that U.K. will leave E.U »

 

[vinnygambini]

Don't panic tomorrow, folks.

I thought it would remain at 500 points, damn 600, could be more.

Nikkei is down 6.7%
FTSE is down 7.5%

Carnage

 

[Smiley90]

I was legitimately planning to withdraw some money this week for something totally unrelated, didn't think the UK would do this

... now I probably shouldn't withdraw anything, this is dumb.

 

[iamblades]

Don't panic tomorrow, folks.

Yeah it's time for buying after all the absurd panic selling.

This doesn't really change the economic fundamentals at all really, all it will do is put a bit more overhead on business between the UK and the continent. This is not a reason for some giant 10-20% drop in equities in any way that I can see, and there isn't much of a reason for US stocks to drop at all, as the likely end result of this is a closer trade relationship (in a US favored way) with the UK.

People will panic for a few weeks or months until people realize that none of this shit matters all that much in the grand scheme of things.

 

[anonymous_abc]

Yeah it's time for buying after all the absurd panic selling.

The problem is I will have to sell very soon due to my move to the US...

 

[vinnygambini]

Holy shit guys:

The Guardian: Japan’s Nikkei index has slumped by 7%, a loss of over 1,100 points. Worst one-day fall since Fukushima disaster

Edit:

German DAX Futures Collapse 8.6%, FTSE100 Futures Collapse 9.0%, Nikkei Down 7.8%

 

[narcosis219]

Yeah it's time for buying after all the absurd panic selling.

This doesn't really change the economic fundamentals at all really, all it will do is put a bit more overhead on business between the UK and the continent. This is not a reason for some giant 10-20% drop in equities in any way that I can see, and there isn't much of a reason for US stocks to drop at all, as the likely end result of this is a closer trade relationship (in a US favored way) with the UK.

People will panic for a few weeks or months until people realize that none of this shit matters all that much in the grand scheme of things.

Catching a falling knife?

 

[iamblades]

Catching a falling knife?

hence after?

The main point is that this will not end up changing the fundamentals much at all. At the end of this the UK will still have relatively free and open trade with the EU at a slightly less favorable deal. This is certainly not something that should lead to a long term recession, and there is absolutely no reason for markets in US and Japan to be down double digits.

 

[Epsilon-delta]

I thought it would remain at 500 points, damn 600, could be more.

Nikkei is down 6.7%
FTSE is down 7.5%

Carnage

683 now

 

[giga]

Those treasury yields...

It was nice knowing y'all.

 

[narcosis219]

hence after?

The main point is that this will not end up changing the fundamentals much at all. At the end of this the UK will still have relatively free and open trade with the EU at a slightly less favorable deal. This is certainly not something that should lead to a long term recession, and there is absolutely no reason for markets in US and Japan to be down double digits.

How do you know when "after" is until you've already seen the valley that's been left behind?

 

[giga]

hence after?

The main point is that this will not end up changing the fundamentals much at all. At the end of this the UK will still have relatively free and open trade with the EU at a slightly less favorable deal. This is certainly not something that should lead to a long term recession, and there is absolutely no reason for markets in US and Japan to be down double digits.

Slightly less favorable trade combined with lower potential GDP growth from far less European immigration and tourism changes fundamentals for me. Financial firms in London have already indicated they may leave, as well. The future is not bright for the UK either, considering how Scotland and northern Ireland voted.

 

[iamblades]

How do you know when "after" is until you've already seen the valley that's been left behind?

Because there is no real reason for double digit percentage drops globally, the UK is simply not that big of an economic power, so we are clearly already nearing in on 'drastic overreaction' territory in the non-UK markets. I mean the entire UK economy is not that much more than 10% of the US economy, which should negative economic news in the UK lead to an 8% or more drop in US equities. There is no logical reason for such a large reaction short of the entire UK being wiped off the map by an alien invasion.

Slightly less favorable trade combined with lower potential GDP growth from far less European immigration and tourism changes fundamentals for me. Financial firms in London have already indicated they may leave, as well. The future is not bright for the UK either, considering how Scotland and Ireland voted.

but that's the UK, not the US and Japan and etc.

I don't disagree that there will be a ~5% or so drop in UK GDP(probably a larger drop in UK equities), maybe more if the EU really fucks them on trade deal negotiations(but they shouldn't, would only be cutting off their nose to spite their face).

It's going to be bad for the UK short and probably medium term, and the EU short term(unless if failure cascades because of this), but there is no reason it should have global impact the way the markets are currently reacting. That is sheer panic from the uncertainty.

 

[giga]

I don't disagree the majority of the shock is coming from uncertainty. Nothing like this has ever happened before. But the UK isn't a small economy and any short or medium term recession would still be painful for the global economy.

 

[iamblades]

I don't disagree the majority of the shock is coming from uncertainty. Nothing like this has ever happened before. But the UK isn't a small economy and any short or medium term recession would still be painful for the global economy.

The UK is ~4% of global GDP. Theoretically the UK could cease to exist entirely, and the impact to the global economy should not exceed 4% in the long term.

Of course things could get worse if the EU decides to act like children and force punitive trade terms on the UK and more nations decide to GTFO as Germany gains even more power over EU policy, which is part of the reason for the overreaction.

But even worst case scenario and the EU crumbles completely there shouldn't be THAT big of an impact, especially across the ocean or in asian markets.

 

[gatti-man]

Wait for the recovery before you buy guys. I literally was a 50/50 split of cash and gold. The market was way too much into he stay camp. It was really scary. This market could dump tomorrow as in flash crash. Things were already bad and over valued as is. Honestly I'd get out if you can get good value on your stocks then look to rebuy when you feel the market is firm again.

The UK is ~4% of global GDP. Theoretically the UK could cease to exist entirely, and the impact to the global economy should not exceed 4% in the long term.

Of course things could get worse if the EU decides to act like children and force punitive trade terms on the UK and more nations decide to GTFO as Germany gains even more power over EU policy, which is part of the reason for the overreaction.

But even worst case scenario and the EU crumbles completely there shouldn't be THAT big of an impact, especially across the ocean or in asian markets.

Disagree completely. The market is entirely psychological at this point. And Brexit puts many countries in economic danger besides just the Uk.

 

[anonymous_abc]

Of course things could get worse if the EU decides to act like children and force punitive trade terms on the UK and more nations decide to GTFO as Germany gains even more power over EU policy, which is part of the reason for the overreaction.

But the punitive measures will be exactly to prevent what you describe.
If everyone sees they can get favourable deals outside the EU they will quickly want to follow suit.

 

[iamblades]

Wait for the recovery before you buy guys. I literally was a 50/50 split of cash and gold. The market was way too much into he stay camp. It was really scary. This market could dump tomorrow as in flash crash. Things were already bad and over valued as is. Honestly I'd get out if you can get good value on your stocks then look to rebuy when you feel the market is firm again.



Disagree completely. The market is entirely psychological at this point. And Brexit puts many countries in economic danger besides just the Uk.

Market timing does not work.

Even if equities do crash, there is still no better investment to be in. Bond yields are shit, gold is purely speculative and if you aren't already in it you may have missed the bulk of the upside already.

Best to ride it out and at least keep getting the dividends from the equities.

When the market is entirely psychological, that is when you want to be most logical. It's like Warren buffet always says, when the market is scared, you want to be greedy, when the market is greedy, you want to be scared.

 

[giga]

The UK is ~4% of global GDP. Theoretically the UK could cease to exist entirely, and the impact to the global economy should not exceed 4% in the long term.

Of course things could get worse if the EU decides to act like children and force punitive trade terms on the UK and more nations decide to GTFO as Germany gains even more power over EU policy, which is part of the reason for the overreaction.

But even worst case scenario and the EU crumbles completely there shouldn't be THAT big of an impact, especially across the ocean or in asian markets.

The UK is the fifth largest economy in the world. It's pretty likely a recession may follow and that has implications through many channels, not just through a decline in domestic production and consumption. And again, I very well understand that the long term impact to fundamentals are not as not bleak as markets are pinning them to be. But my concerns relate to the short and medium term impact to an already fragile world economy (through channels outside of just trade).

 

[iamblades]

But the punitive measures will be exactly to prevent what you describe.
If everyone sees they can get favourable deals outside the EU they will quickly want to follow suit.

If the EU really has to hold the threat of mutually assured economic destruction over the heads of it's members to keep them from leaving, maybe it doesn't need to be a thing, and they should go back to individual trade deals.

It's really none of my business what government Europeans choose for themselves, but I have always been skeptical about the long term sustainability of the EU anyway.

Personally I think all the backroom trade deals are wastes of time, and the best policy is unilateral free trade in almost all cases, even when it is heavily one sided.

The UK is the fifth largest economy in the world. It's pretty likely a recession may follow and that has implications through many channels, not just through a decline in domestic production and consumption. And again, I very well understand that the long term impact to fundamentals are not as not bleak as markets are pinning them to be. But my concerns relate to the short and medium term impact to an already fragile world economy (through channels outside of just trade).

This thread is all about the long term though. There is no reason for someone investing for retirement to be worrying about the short or mid term, when nothing fundamental has really changed.

I mean I guess it's entirely possible that this situation leads to a complete meltdown of the EU leading to a new European war and Russia takes advantage of the situation to take over Ukraine and Poland again and the world is completely fucked, but in that kind of a doomsday scenario, I'm not sure what good getting out of equities will do you anyway. Especially if the alternative is European/UK currency or bonds.

 

[gatti-man]

Market timing does not work.

Even if equities do crash, there is still no better investment to be in. Bond yields are shit, gold is purely speculative and if you aren't already in it you may have missed the bulk of the upside already.

Best to ride it out and at least keep getting the dividends from the equities.

When the market is entirely psychological, that is when you want to be most logical. It's like Warren buffet always says, when the market is scared, you want to be greedy, when the market is greedy, you want to be scared.

From the guy who just said now is the time to buy. That's timing the market.

Why I said wait for a recovery is you could start to buy right into a flash crash. Tomorrow is not the day to be buying. This could go on for a month. No it's not best to ride out a 10% loss lol. But feel free to lose 10% of your retirement. I'm already out and will profit not lose. Then when prices have fallen and I see recovery I'll rebuy. The market is insanely over valued right now and a correction will happen sooner or later. That's just simple math.

And you're misreading that buffet quote. The market was greedy and I was scared hence why I'm in gold. Now the market just started to be scared let that ride for a bit then be greedy.

 

[iamblades]

From the guy who just said now is the time to buy. That's timing the market.

Why I said wait for a recovery is you could start to buy right into a flash crash. Tomorrow is not the day to be buying. This could go on for a month. No it's not best to ride out a 10% loss lol. But feel free to lose 10% of your retirement. I'm already out and will profit not lose. Then when prices have fallen and I see recovery I'll rebuy. The market is insanely over valued right now and a correction will happen sooner or later. That's just simple math.

And you're misreading that buffet quote. The market was greedy and I was scared hence why I'm in gold. Now the market just started to be scared let that ride for a bit then be greedy.

I am not really suggesting market timing, or buying tomorrow, I don't think long term investors should make any investment decisions based on market momentum or psychology, cause it doesn't work. My point was that if you have money you were planning on putting into the market for long term retirement investment, nothing about this changed the fundamentals of that investment. My retirement investments are all in stocks and will stay in stocks, and even if cap gains are negative for the next five years, I'll still be making more of a yield than I would be in bonds or cash savings(and maybe gold, which is a speculative play, not an investment). And the dividends that get reinvested during this downturn will buy me more shares than it otherwise would have.

 

[Randolph Freelander]

From the guy who just said now is the time to buy. That's timing the market.

Now is pretty much always the time to buy for the audience of this thread. We're all somewhere around 30 years from retirement, some more, some less. We buy in good markets, buy in bad markets. 30 years from now, whatever is happening right now will not matter. And given that we cannot see if the market will be higher or lower two days or two weeks or two years from now, panicking tomorrow seems quite futile.

Whatever the case may be, you're not going to be able to time the bottom. Case in point, this article was posted on WSJ on March 9, 2009. It talked about the idea that the Dow could head to 5000, and the S&P to 500. Here's an excerpt:

Some analysts who look at stock price trends see the indexes heading much lower.

"There's a good chance the market could keep going lower," says Bill Strazzullo, chief market strategist at Bell Curve Trading.

His firm's targets are 500 on the S&P and 5500 on the Dow, using charts of buying and selling trends. A small bounce may come around 650 for the S&P as short sellers take profits around that level, Mr. Strazzullo says. Long-term buyers have also been "active" at about those levels and may help push prices higher temporarily, he says.

"Some people may say that is the bottom, but I think there is another leg to go on this," Mr. Strazzullo says. "That last leg will probably be the general public throwing in the towel."

The S&P closed at 676.53 that day, a Monday. That was the bottom. By Friday, it closed at 756.55, or 12% higher. One month from the bottom, 4/9, the market was 26% higher. At the end of the year, it was 65% higher.

You're not going to know when the bottom is. You're going to miss it, you're going to lose money trying to time it, and it's all pointless when this thread is talking about retirement 30 years down the line.

 

[iamblades]

This guy in the thread about the vote result says it more eloquently than I did:

Even if the us market tanks a little it will rebound hard within a week. All the money pouring out of UK and EU will have to go somewhere, and the US is the default safe haven of choice for all money managers, hedge funds, citizens, countries, etc. If you see any dips in the US stock market, it would be a great time to buy in.

Overall it really won't have any impact on the US, The UK -> US trade market is around $5.5b USD annually (US -> UK is around $4b); the US does more than that in a single DAY of trading with China.

There is no real reason for this to have any significant impact on the US economy given our level of trade with the UK, if anything there is the potential for a positive outcome for the US if the EU fucks over the UK in trade negotiations and the UK comes looking to the US desperate for a trade partner.

Even if he is wrong about the speed of the rebound, he is more or less right that trade with the UK is not all that significant of a contribution the the US economy.

 

[giga]

Why Brexit is bad for the world economy: http://www.economist.com/news/finan...-global-chilling-effect-investment-why-brexit

 

[ferr]

I am not really suggesting market timing, or buying tomorrow, I don't think long term investors should make any investment decisions based on market momentum or psychology, cause it doesn't work. My point was that if you have money you were planning on putting into the market for long term retirement investment, nothing about this changed the fundamentals of that investment. My retirement investments are all in stocks and will stay in stocks, and even if cap gains are negative for the next five years, I'll still be making more of a yield than I would be in bonds or cash savings(and maybe gold, which is a speculative play, not an investment). And the dividends that get reinvested during this downturn will buy me more shares than it otherwise would have.

This is exactly why today will be irrelevant. Those with ~30 years left before retirement should be blind to short-term trends. These investors should continually buy as their income allows it. They should buy when the market is up, when the market is down, when the market is sideways. It doesn't matter if a stock you bought on July 1st, 2006 went down 10% over the month of October 2013 when the stock gives you a return of 3000% in 2036.

 

[Neverwinter27]

Guys, should I still stick with my Vanguard total bond market index fund? its already lost about 200 dollars today

 

[ClosingADoor]

Guys, should I still stick with my Vanguard total bond market index fund? its already lost about 200 dollars today

Do not take out money from your retirement fund based on this. Same with every other crisis. Things will recover long term.

 

[Neverwinter27]

But this feels like Episode 9 of GOT about halfway in