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Hurricane Season 2010: Getting a jump on June 1st
- Thread starter Xeke
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Lateraleye
Member
We're getting our first rain band coming through now in Virginia Beach. Just stepped outside a minute ago and the humidity has dramatically increased in the last hour. Still not expecting much but I know I'll be up all night monitoring it. Got lots of caffeine on standby. 
Luckily I'm off tomorrow.
Luckily I'm off tomorrow.Baraka in the White House
2-Terms of Kombat
Srsly said:
Thread was pretty cool until now.
<3 u HitoHitokage said:
On a serious note. Earl is about 70-90 miles east of the outer banks so that area will just feel tropical storm winds. The trough did take its sweet time to get down and pick up Earl but from now on it's all smooth sailing. Expect heavy rains all along the East Coast and some tropical storm gusts and in close enough places sustained winds. I guess NC should feel Hurricane Winds, at least the outer banks. NYC will feel some winds but nothing out of the norm. All in all... this was a good test for what could come down the road though i fear for the next weeks we will see more systems entering in the Caribbean and less in the north Atlantic. The setup will soon favor west movement so eyes everywhere.
On Gaston now:
000
AXNT20 KNHC 030000
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU SEP 02 2010
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC
REMNANT LOW GASTON IS NEAR 13.5N 39.5W AT 02/2100 UTC OR ABOUT
880 NM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND 1270 NM E OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES MOVING W AT 4 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1009 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 35 KT. GASTON HAS DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC...LEAVING A
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITHOUT ANY DEEP CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS STILL PERSIST WITHIN 300 NM OF THE
LOW CENTER. GIVEN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT AND
BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT GASTON COULD REGENERATE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD.
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
02/2345 UTC 14.1N 40.3W T1.0/1.5 GASTON
So it's getting better and NHC gives it a chance.
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Fiona is targeting at Bermuda now. She was expected to die off but she's a stubborn one. Track should be pretty spot on. Ex-Gaston should regenerate soon if nothing out of the norm happens. An ULL dropping from the north of the Atlantic over PR and Hispaniola could provide some wind shear come Monday I don't think models are accounting on that. Well, whatever happens, happens. Nature is in a foul mood :lol
Relix said:
No, still dead. Not even a depression. :lol
Seriously though, people are suddenly acting like the emergency is over since Earl is now a Category 2 and isn't expected to hit anything directly until late tomorrow night. Even the local Philadelphia news stations are saying crap like"oh, they dodged a bullet on Earl, guess that's over with."
It's like Katrina has everyone desensitized to anything less than catastrophic super-hurricanes. Even a Category 2 storm can fuck things up nicely, even if it isn't a direct hit. It irks me to see posts (not here) disregarding Tropical Storm-force winds (+40 MPH sustained, if I remember correctly) like that can't really cause some damage.
If Gaston lives he shall become.... The Phoenix!!Retro said:
No, still dead. Not even a depression. :lol
Seriously though, people are suddenly acting like the emergency is over since Earl is now a Category 2 and isn't expected to hit anything directly until late tomorrow night. Even the local Philadelphia news stations are saying crap like"oh, they dodged a bullet on Earl, guess that's over with."
It's like Katrina has everyone desensitized to anything less than catastrophic super-hurricanes. Even a Category 2 storm can fuck things up nicely, even if it isn't a direct hit. It irks me to see posts (not here) disregarding Tropical Storm-force winds (+40 MPH sustained, if I remember correctly) like that can't really cause some damage.
Anyway, Earl's tropical storm winds here in PR left without power nearly a million people. Yes we have a shitty grid, but your point is well noted. Of course they are vastly less damaging than a Cat 4 or 5 but they have risks and surprise damages. Last Major I rode was Cat 3 Georges in 1998. That was an experience. I can't imagine how a Cat 4 or 5 must be like.
Anyway, damage should be less than expected. Rains will abound though.
(rise from the grave Gastoooon!!)
Miggytronz
Gold Member
man once Earl took that eastern/northern path, it turned into a weak bitch. I am disappoint.
VeryGooster
Banned
So my weekend is made up of showers and a little wind and no apocalypse. Lame.
Srsly said:
Well at the moment it could pose a threat. Many times before a storm hasn't recurved when expected and hit (or didn't hit) a place. They just dodged a bullet, like many times before. It also weakened faster than expected. Heck the NHC expected a Hurricane all the way up to Nova Scotia. Its barely holding out now. Inexact science, but what can you do. It's better to be prepared than sorry
My eyes are now on the revival of Gaston. He's coming back in the next 24-36 hours so it should be a fun ride. This one is not recurving before going into the Caribbean so it poses a threat to the NE Caribbean or who knows, even the Central Caribbean. The Caribbean is a boiling pot now, anything that gets in there will explode. The wave behind Gaston is forecast to curve upwards to the North as soon as it's out so that should be a non factor. It's all part of the on going setup. At least until Sept 16th the current setup will stay, and other factors like NAO and the AB High setup will take place. Anything that forms aside from that wave should move westward at least until 60W.
EDIT: Actually that 99L NW movement is a bit... strange. Will see how it goes :lol
B-Rad Lascelle
Banned
Zombie Hurricane! Can we sing that Gaston song from Beauty and the Beast if it regenerates?Retro said:
Gaston is now up to an 80% chance of redeveloping despite being dead. It's supposed to strengthen more tomorrow as well.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF GASTON LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES
EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...AND THE LOW COULD
REDEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME TODAY OR TONIGHT
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. WARNINGS WILL LIKELY
BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THESE ISLANDS IF ADVISORIES ARE
RE-INITIATED. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT... OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ASSOCIATION WITH THE REMNANT LOW OF GASTON LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES
EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...AND THE LOW COULD
REDEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME TODAY OR TONIGHT
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. WARNINGS WILL LIKELY
BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THESE ISLANDS IF ADVISORIES ARE
RE-INITIATED. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT... OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Baraka in the White House
2-Terms of Kombat
Where the hell'd that turd in the Gulf come from?
fucking a! hermine literally passed over san antonio proper at around noonish/1 pm. got a nice 4 inches of rain and with winds reaching speeds close to 50mph, there have been a lot of downed trees/branches. i had to physically remove quite a few big branches from my driveway so i could get to school. the university was a mess up until about 3, when then the grounds crew could come out to clean up all the branches and blow away all the debris. it's finally cooler, too.
That's a storm I can get behind. Literally. :lol
It kept a strong structure all the way to San Antonio. Pretty damn cool.
Gaston's remnants are bringing some rainy weather to PR. Last night at 4AM it was as if Zeus himself shat over the island with lightning striking down every 15 seconds. Really, it was impressive. I should have recorded it but I was half asleep :lol
Future Igor is off Africa. This guy also has a good chance. Recurve isn't as certain. GFS now puts it past 60W 20N. ECMFW keeps pushing it west. Should be fun to track as well.
It kept a strong structure all the way to San Antonio. Pretty damn cool.
Gaston's remnants are bringing some rainy weather to PR. Last night at 4AM it was as if Zeus himself shat over the island with lightning striking down every 15 seconds. Really, it was impressive. I should have recorded it but I was half asleep :lol
Future Igor is off Africa. This guy also has a good chance. Recurve isn't as certain. GFS now puts it past 60W 20N. ECMFW keeps pushing it west. Should be fun to track as well.
Sort of related: CCTV footage from a cruise in heavy seas, pretty scary.
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=975_1283799588
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=975_1283799588
Baraka in the White House
2-Terms of Kombat
Aw hell, straight westerly track...
Hermine tore Dallas apart. I had a tornado warning at work yesterday (spent about 20 minutes in our designated shelter area), and then had another one today as I'm pulling home. I open my car door and the sirens go off. Thankfully nothing came of either for me, but I did watch a bunch of tornadoes hit downtown Dallas and the Lovefield area. Some of the video was f'n amazing watching them form one after another on live TV.
Then there's the whole 6-12" of rain in 24 hours...but we all know what flooding looks like. :lol
Then there's the whole 6-12" of rain in 24 hours...but we all know what flooding looks like. :lol
Baraka in the White House
2-Terms of Kombat
Not that I'm complaining, but what's up with this season? It's not like I'm shocked that forecasters were wrong but in this case just how wrong they were. I don't remember seeing more depressions/storms sputter and die in one season.
Huevos de Oro
Member
Holy shit Karl is coming my way.
perfectchaos007
Member
SteelAttack said:
If you're near Vera Cruz I feel sorry for you man
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