Fair points. But with an install base about a 3rd of the size of last gen its going to be slow going. Even then say if they double the attach rate from PSVR1 they are what looking at 10 million units at best? thats not a lot of consumers to buy your software.
I think we are at the very least 2-3 generations of hardware away from VR being anything like mainstream (if at all). Fair play to sony for going for it, i just can't see it being successful enough as they like. They need at least a half a couple of must haves like Alyx to make me even consider picking one up.
Looking at their console getting sold out in minutes or hours we know the demand is way higher than what they sold. Meaning that once they get rid of chip shortages, apparently starting this quarter, they'll highly increase their userbase pretty fast and in less than a year will be ahead of PS4 (and any other console) launch aligned.
Not sure in which point PSVR1 was released, but if it was in the same point pretty likely PSVR2 in less than a year will have a bigger PS5 userbase than PSVR1 had. In the long term, if Sony expects PS5 will end with a bigger userbase than PS4, then with the same VR attach rate the PSVR2 units sold would be higher than the PSVR1.
We also have to consider that the pricing for the full VR kit needed to play PSVR1 on PS4 was more expensive (specially when applying inflation) that will be for PSVR2 in PS5. And that PSVR2 will fix or at least improve many of the issues that PSVR1 had. Meaning that some users that didn't jump to PSVR1 due to these issues may jump to PSVR2. So pretty likely the attach rate will be higher.
Leakers who accurately leaked a ton of the PSVR info we already know, also mentioned that dozens of PSVR1 games are being ported to PSVR2, and that Sony's plans for PSVR2 compared to PSVR1 included way more AAA-ish games and more popular AAA games getting the REVII like dual tv+vr versions. Meaning that maybe the launch catalog may be weak but in the long term may end being way more appealing for gamers than the PSVR1 one was.
So I think it makes sense to expect PSVR2 selling more and having a higher attach rate than PSVR1, even if not a lot more. If PSVR1 sold around 6M, I'd expect PSVR2 to sell maximum 10-15M, maybe even 20M if everything goes particularly well.
Once these dual releases become more common, I see the devs getting their engines more ready for VR and their designs more suited for VR, so would be easier to get an Alyx case for them. The thing is, AAA are too expensive and VR install base too small to make a VR only AAA game unless for a very limited amount of cases, the first party behind it. I think the next Alyx-like game will be from a game with a dual tv+vr release. In fact I bet it will come from either Capcom (RE Engine has an option to see any of their games for that engine in VR, but game design, controls, camera and UI must be adapted) or Sony and for PSVR2.
I agree that we're a 2-3 generations away from VR becoming mainstream. First because in terms of game design they still are far from having stantard best practices to adapt the main AAA genres. Second because the AAA devs and engines outside Capcom still don't have VR integration of their AAA games built in their engines to make a quick adaptation when needed. Third because most of them didn't figure out that the dual release is the way or still consider that the VR userbase is too small to make profitable VR adaptations of AAA games unless funded by Sony. Fourth because VR is still too bulky, cable needed to get the top high end experience during hours, and has other general hardware and horsepower related issues (like dizziness, nausea...) and they'll need several generations to be fixed, sixth because the pricing is still too expensive even if companies sell it taking a big loss and not now because current economic conditions but I think in long term that should improve and seventh because I think Sony must understad the importance of day one BC for VR to have a decent catalog and also making it PC compatible to grow userbase, and both things I think will start with PSVR3.
If I had to bet, I think PSVR4 for the PS7 will be the one that will go mainstream. Wireless, with long battery time, under $200 pricing, no controllers required (proper hand and finger tracking via cameras), probably standalone, capable or running VR games from PC and PS4 to PS7, and also getting supported by a big number of contemporary AAA games.
I think that generation will be the first with MS not making their own consoles (but continuing as 3rd party) and also the same generation where cloud gaming will become mainstream in the maybe top 10-top 20 countries. I think game subs will have growth to become the 25% of the game revenues, there won't be physical game sales and that digital add-ons (IAP/DLC/season passes) will be 60% of the game revenue and game sales will be only 15% of the game revenue.
