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[speculawyer]

I mean Hydrogen is definitely the dream. It's the stretch goal, if you will.

How much has energy yield from solar panels jumped in the last decade? Didn't Toshiba have a massive leap in like 2007, or am I making shit up?

Hydrogen is a dream . . . a pipedream.

energy yield from solar is pretty low . . . but when the energy source is free (sunshine), that doesn't matter very much. What matters more is the price per watt. (Although efficiency does matter somewhat . . . I only have so much area on my roof for PV panels and I want to generate enough to cover all my needs.)

I honestly don't know what benefit hydrogen has over electric - especially if the electric is solar power based.

It has the advantage of fast refueling time. A 10 minute refuel as opposed to 45 minutes. I used to say it had an advantage of range but that is not really clear now.

 

[entremet]

He is still nothing compared to Gates . Gates is on Saint level at this point after founding the Gates foundation.

Can't compare the two yet. He's in his prime and Gates is in semi-retirement. Who knows what he'll do with his money when he done with his creative years.

 

[Darkkn]

No, that probably won't happen. I believe that the only reason electric cars will become popular is BECAUSE of high oil prices. If oil prices were to drop, people won't buy them except a small niche of greenies and gadget freaks (today's EV buyers).

Even though electric is very elegant, it is just damn hard to compete with the energy density of gasoline. And when that gasoline is cheap, the electrics just can't compete.

I would not be surprised if countries, especially in Europe started to incentivise the adoption of electric cars via tax deductions or subsidies. Electric cars would reduce the need for energy imports and would complement well the agendas of increasing renewable energy generation and reducing co2 emissions.

edit: Damn Elon is only 41. What am i doing with my life...

 

[Kinitari]

It has the advantage of fast refueling time. A 10 minute refuel as opposed to 45 minutes. I used to say it had an advantage of range but that is not really clear now.

I guess I might be a touch optimistic about this, but I expect a lot from tech. So I think electric charge speeds will continue to drop as well. Energy yield from solar will also continue to increase, while energy storage methods will continue to diversify and hold larger charges.

 

[speculawyer]

Consider this -

Electric cars at... lets say 15k. Charging is free, and charging is extremely plentiful. Gas however, costs money (even little money). How might that change your opinion on the situation?

That is like a "Who wins a fight between Superman and Mighty Mouse?" question to me. That is not reality and thus doesn't matter. Batteries prices probably have some room for further price drops but they will be incremental not exponential. Much of the cost is in the material not the manufacturing.

Of course, all bets are off if there is a break-through with something like Lithium-air batteries or something.

 

[dr3upmushroom]

Electric cars replacing gas cars isn't that radical of an idea. I pretty much see it as the inevitable future.

It's not inevitable if it's a mass audience isn't convinced that there's a need for one and also the availability of them. Also the push back from companies that stand to lose profits if such a shift occurs.

 

[speculawyer]

I guess I might be a touch optimistic about this, but I expect a lot from tech. So I think electric charge speeds will continue to drop as well. Energy yield from solar will also continue to increase, while energy storage methods will continue to diversify and hold larger charges.

I hope you are right but I'm skeptical. Solar PV has already had an AMAZING drop in prices over the last 3 years. Batteries have had a decent price drop. I think both with struggle from here on though. But batteries will probably have the bigger price drop.

Solar prices dropped so much that in additional to American and European companies going bankrupt, Chinese PV companies started going bankrupt. Price are probably going to rise or at least stabilize to keep the industry afloat.

But batteries should drop a bit more. It is definitely the less mature market.

 

[Fusion Pizza]

He's my hero. The guy is the most bad-ass nerd on the planet.

 

[Kinitari]

That is like a "Who wins a fight between Superman and Mighty Mouse?" question to me. That is not reality and thus doesn't matter. Batteries prices probably have some room for further price drops but they will be incremental not exponential. Much of the cost is in the material not the manufacturing.

Of course, all bets are off if there is a break-through with something like Lithium-air batteries or something.

I don't think it's quite that ridiculous - I'm not setting a particular timeline here - but there are many opportunities people are looking into for advancing battery tech. Tesla's goal is to have an electric car for 30k in 5 years, if that is successful - what's stopping them from hitting 15k in another 5?

Commercial li-ion batteries aren't particularly old, I don't think we're married to the tech, and I don't think it's the best we can do - our recent research in 2d materials kind of shows us that. I guess it is a bit pie in the sky, but I am very confident that we'll get new, cheaper materials (probably graphene) in our batteries, standard in a decade.

 

[Nocebo]

Woah, I didn't know that. I was actually going to say "He's basically the real life version of Tony Stark".

He even has a cameo in ironman 2 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EuG2AVFB-g0
He says he has an idea for an electric jet, which he does irl.

 

[speculawyer]

It's not inevitable if it's a mass audience isn't convinced that there's a need for one and also the availability of them. Also the push back from companies that stand to lose profits if such a shift occurs.

Gasoline is product made from a finite commodity that we literally burn up. It is only a matter of time before its price rises high enough to make EVs the more attractive option. We've already watch oil grow from $20/barrel in 2000 to around $100/barrel today (average between WTI and Brent). That was a rise much faster than the base rate of inflation. It rose because of increased demand and depletion of oil reservoirs. We now drill much more expensive oil (tar sands, shale fracturing jobs, arctic oil, ultradeepwater oil, etc.) such that those days of $20 to $30 per barrel oil are never coming back.

Don't feel sorry for the oil companies though . . . they are more profitable than ever. And will continue to be so. There are things like aviation, long-haul trucking, maritime shipping, etc. that just can't be done with electricity.

 

[FStop7]

Howard Hughes was the original template for the character of Tony Stark in the 60s. And I would say that the modern film Tony Stark started off as Hughes but ended up more like Elon Musk by the end of the first film.

That said, I think my personal "baddest motherfucker" award goes to John Carmack.

In his life Carmack has run three "garage projects" (I think that's the term he used):

1. First person shooters. He spearheaded what became a massive, massive thing. A multi-billion dollar genre within a multi-billion dollar industry.

2. Space travel. Like Elon Musk, he's been involved in private space exploration.

3. Virtual reality. He was a very early evangelist for Oculus Rift, pushing very hard to raise awareness of it.

 

[-COOLIO-]

Sounds like tony stark.

 

[ProfessorLobo]

Howard Hughes was the original template for the character of Tony Stark in the 60s. And I would say that the modern film Tony Stark started off as Hughes but ended up more like Elon Musk by the end of the first film.

That said, I think my personal "baddest motherfucker" award goes to John Carmack.

In his life Carmack has run three "garage projects" (I think that's the term he used):

1. First person shooters. He spearheaded what became a massive, massive thing. A multi-billion dollar genre within a multi-billion dollar industry.

2. Space travel. Like Elon Musk, he's been involved in private space exploration.

3. Virtual reality. He was a very early evangelist for Oculus Rift, pushing very hard to raise awareness of it.

Truly a God amongst men.

But seriously, he is pretty cool.

 

[Nocebo]

If he and his SpaceX team are able to achieve his biggest short term goal that would be really awesome. They are developing reusable rockets which would cut the cost of launching something into space by a lot. Cost would become about one hundredth of what it is now.
I think he says in a recent interview that they will complete the reusable rocket project in about a year from now.
I wonder what kind of change that will set in motion.

 

[RustyNails]

Lets just say when aliens land and say take me to your leader, I want Elon Musk to meet them.

 

[AlteredBeast]

A regular Hank Rearden?

 

[Secret Fawful]

I'm so glad I'm on GAF. Considering the backwoods area I live in, if it wasn't for GAF, I would never have heard of this guy. He seems very inspirational.

 

[speculawyer]

]

dual fuels

Well, that is a hydrogen car . . . but most "hydrogen cars" talked about are hydrogen fuel cells. I see little point in hydrogen ICE cars . . . just build natural gas ICE cars like the Honda GX. We have plenty of natural gas and an existing distribution infrastructure for it.

 

[jaxword]

He is still nothing compared to Gates . Gates is on Saint level at this point after founding the Gates foundation.

Gates was the richest man in the entire world for several years.

The likelihood of anyone possibly getting close to his level is sort of like one of us here simultaneously dating Katy Perry, Kim Kardashian, and that lingerie model from that gif.

Simply not too feasible.

 

[thespot84]

I mean Hydrogen is definitely the dream. It's the stretch goal, if you will.

How much has energy yield from solar panels jumped in the last decade? Didn't Toshiba have a massive leap in like 2007, or am I making shit up?

We will always need plastics. And China by itself could soak it all up itself, not to mention India if the central government ever gets its corrupt ass together.

Algal Oil will get there soon.

I'm so glad I'm on GAF. Considering the backwoods area I live in, if it wasn't for GAF, I would never have heard of this guy. He seems very inspirational.

His brother runs a mean restaurant too

 

[thespot84]

EDIT: Double post...oops

 

[Lach]

He's definatly one of the few people that I really think is driving technology forward in the last few years.

What he is doing for space flight is great.

 

[Chittagong]

He's my man crush.

Goddam he's such a bad ass - electric sports cars and man in Mars. Hard to imagine what more a man could want.

 

[Kinitari]

Algal Oil will get there soon.

I really don't see biofuels taking off - but I haven't looked into it a lot - what's the current situation with biofuels, what are their benefits, and how do they stack up against the competition?

Also if possible, how does the 'ideal' biofuel stack up against the 'ideal' electric, for example?

When I say ideal, I mean something like... eventually, we'll be able to obtain a large portion of our electricity from Solar, Wind and Nuclear - all extremely green, viable everywhere in the world. Basically no emissions.

 

[Vermillion]

We already did for Obama

lol

 

[witness]

I am so glad he is pushing humanity forward. We need more people like him.

 

[Messypandas]

If we're talking ceo's i'd say this guy was the literal bad motherfucker.

 

[Crisco]

He's even dating Cameron Diaz now, so yes.

 

[Indrid Cold1]

I always wonder which comic book character does he remind me of the most; Tony Stark, Oliver Queen, early AAdrian Veidt.

 

[pj]

You wouldn't need electricity so when a solar flare wipes out electricity on Earth we can still drive cars

no one else has called this idiot so I guess I have to.

that is idiotic

 

[Rentahamster]

He's a cool dude.

 

[showx]

He's fucking amazing.

 

[ThreePiMatt]

Tell me when Elon is flying across the world on a giant hot air balloon.

Though, Branson wrote the piece on Elon for this year's Times Top 100.

Elon Musk

SpaceX and Tesla founder, 41

By Richard BransonApril 18, 2013


2013_time100_musk
Mark Seliger for TIME
For a while now, space has been looking boring. News about space was reduced to budget cuts and deorbiting schedules, not research or innovation. Then the private sector began designing spaceships to send payloads and people into orbit and beyond. Today, teams like Elon Musk’s SpaceX are reopening space for exploration.

I know a thing or two about building spaceships, having started Virgin Galactic. It might seem that would make Elon and me competitors, but in some ways it’s just the opposite. We share the belief that when you want something, you have to go do it yourself — even if DIY in this case means plowing your personal fortune into industries so unwieldy, complex and unknowable that most people think they can be steered and owned only by government.

Whatever skeptics have said can’t be done, Elon has gone out and made real. Remember in the 1990s, when we would call strangers and give them our credit-card numbers? Elon dreamed up a little thing called PayPal. His Tesla Motors and SolarCity companies are making a clean, renewable-energy future a reality. It’s a paradox that Elon is working to improve our planet at the same time he’s building spacecraft to help us leave it. But true vision is binocular — and Elon Musk is clearly a man who can see many things at once.

Branson is the founder of Virgin Group

 

[TheMan]

If we're talking ceo's i'd say this guy was the literal bad motherfucker.

you're saying that he actually fucked his mother's bodily orifices? ok.

 

[OrangeGrayBlue]

Two naive questions:


What goes down at paypal that's bothered people?


Is it possible that, say, 10 years from now we'll have EV's with a 500 mile range?

 

[Phoenix]

Made his money and bailed.

He REALLY regrets bailing on Paypal because he wanted that to be a hell of a lot more than it is. He was looking for a way to replace paper currency ala bitcoin long term, but the cash that he gained allowed him to do everything else he's currently doing.

 

[Dude Abides]

He is still nothing compared to Gates . Gates is on Saint level at this point after founding the Gates foundation.

John Rockefeller 2.0? Not even close.

 

[entremet]

you're saying that he actually fucked his mother's bodily orifices? ok.

what. who is this, btw.

 

[Somnid]

He's a pretty cool guy and doesn't afraid of anything.

I also have a lot of respect for Jeff Bezos. Dude put the entire retail industry, the entire publishing industry and the entire web hosting industry on notice. Makes tech titans like Google and Apple sweat yet is still relatively under the radar. Also owns a space company with the goal to make space flight affordable and even dug up the Apollo 11 engine from the bottom of the sea.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeff_Bezos

 

[thespot84]

I really don't see biofuels taking off - but I haven't looked into it a lot - what's the current situation with biofuels, what are their benefits, and how do they stack up against the competition?

Also if possible, how does the 'ideal' biofuel stack up against the 'ideal' electric, for example?

When I say ideal, I mean something like... eventually, we'll be able to obtain a large portion of our electricity from Solar, Wind and Nuclear - all extremely green, viable everywhere in the world. Basically no emissions.

I was speaking to your mention of plastics:

As for energy, biofuels is just one subset of the things that can be made from biological sources. To answer your the general question about energy, think about it this way:

Biofuels are the culmination of using biological feedstocks (currently photosynthetic plants) that are one step removed from the source, in this case the sun. Wind, similarly, is a function of solar energy, as is, obviously, photovoltaics, so it's a matter of relative efficiency. Terrestrial food chains generally exhibit ~10% energy transfer, so as soon as photovoltaics surpass that threshold, they win on an efficiency basis.

HOWEVER, energy economies are complex, and given the state of the grid in the US ( let alone elsewhere in the world) energy storage is as important if not more important than generation and efficiency. The end result of photovoltaics is electricity, which then has to be stored (batteries) and transmitted (shitty grid), while biofuels produce a stable energy source in the form of lipids (oil).

Given the economies of the process a few years ago (i worked in biofuels) process efficiencies were slow to come, and biofuels won't compete with fossil fuels on a per gallon price for another few decades. Given the trends in PV efficiency (http://www.economist.com/news/21566...y-will-no-longer-be-alternative-sunny-uplands) if storage is solved soon biofuels as energy may never catch up, to be honest.

But plastics are often overlooked. Nearly every single product around you, is made with plastic or its manufacture is aided by plastics. What happens with natural lipid sources run out? Because the energy content of the lipids is not as important, processes that rely on algae (which probably have one of the highest lipid to biomass ratios when grown under stressed conditions, though I might be mistaken) will likely replace fossils fuels as the primary source for plastics in the future.