JANUARY 2005 HARDWARE NUMBERS THREAD [Jesus have mercy]
- Thread starter Rhindle
- Start date
KeithFranklin
Banned
Jarrod where are you getting your demographic information. The quote above and the quote about the DS is selling more to women. Funny how DS sales have dropped to below 30K per week and GBA is at 20K per week (Last year only weeks under 30K was in the summer doldrums). From this you gather that the DS is selling to an older, more diverse audience.
After the DS and PSP, what makes anyone sure consumers are going to want to dish out another 100-200 dollars on one more new handheld? Between the DS and PSP this is the most excitement the portable sector has had in years. The way I see things Nintendo is fragmenting their own market if they release a GBA2 next year.
If DS continues moving decent numbers, they won't release GBA2 next year. That simple.Mrbob said:
As is, late 2006 would probably be the absolute earliest we'd see a new Game Boy, and only then if DS bombed out the gates most likely. I think we're past that point already, I'm guessing late 2007 now... probably when Sony makes a PSP2 announcement too.
What are the odds of Nintendo hitting that 6M units figure by the end of March? 3.2M as of the end of January...roughly? Can they move 2.8M more by the end of March? BTW, I know the 6M is a shipped total, but they'd obviously want to sell a lot of those unless they're just trying to showboat for the annual report. At the current rate in Japan, they're not gonna move more than another 300-400k by the end of March. And that's assuming they have a nice late-March rally. I just don't see what's on tap there. And here, the numbers should be higher in February, but could they pull another 750k or so out of the hat by then? And what of Europe? What can they sell there in a few weeks?
It looks to me like there's some discrepancy between what Nintendo expects to sell, and what they're on track to sell. PEACE.
It looks to me like there's some discrepancy between what Nintendo expects to sell, and what they're on track to sell. PEACE.
KeithFranklin
Banned
Registrations! Sure the kids mom registered the system.
As for the 30K from weeks starting May 10 thru July 11 GBA was under 30K. So this year it started week starting January 31. I guess thats just about the same time.
Alcibiades
Member
if the same people that are buying the DS are buying the GBA then product registration demographics would have been identical...
FeedMeAStrayCat
Member
Does anyone have complete sales numbers for all the currently released DS games in the US?
Expected. I remember arguing with someone that the PS2 shortages were enormous and that it was way killing sales and that the Xbox shortages were nothing in comparison. I gave links from respectable news sources that backed my claim buy the guy still didn't believe me.
I went to every damn store in Cool Springs Galleria south of Nashville (the big mall in the region), no one had any. I heard several people asking on my trip to 10+ stores if any were in stock. The response was always: "We can't promise any more shipments until after Christmas" or "we just got a few in stock a couple hours ago, but we sold out shortly after"
WELL: Here's your f*cking proof.
I went to every damn store in Cool Springs Galleria south of Nashville (the big mall in the region), no one had any. I heard several people asking on my trip to 10+ stores if any were in stock. The response was always: "We can't promise any more shipments until after Christmas" or "we just got a few in stock a couple hours ago, but we sold out shortly after"
WELL: Here's your f*cking proof.
sonycowboy
Member
Code:
Japanese DS Mediacreate Sales
11/31-12/05 | 468,883
12/06-12/12 | 198,892
12/13-12/19 | 221,625
12/20-12/26 | 396,674
12/27- 1/02 | 209,522
1/03- 1/09 | 108,561
1/10- 1/16 | 53,527
1/17- 1/23 | 44,608
1/24- 1/30 | 43,226
1/31- 2/06 | 29,552
2/07- 2/13 | 26,205Nov NDS 0 (compared to NPD)
Dec NDS 1,495,596
Jan NDS 249,922
Feb NDS* 55,757
-------------------------------
LTD (not including Feb) 1,745,518
US
Nov NDS 479,695
Dec NDS 745,899
Jan NDS 152,091
-------------------------------
LTD 1,377,685
Observations:
--------------------------------------
DS started WAY more popular in Japan.
DS sold 1.5M copies vs 1.2M in 2004. Japan vs US
And in Jan, it was close to double the US's total
Nintendo better pray the same doesn't hold true in February Japan vs US. If the DS only has 100k in February, that's an average of only 25k/week. As it was, the US only averaged 38k/week in January, traditionally a much higher sales period than February
In January, by several posters reports, DS's were hard to come by in the US. So, with ample supply in February, perhaps sales could increase or at least hold steady.
However, based on retail reports I've heard, DS's sales have stalled somewhat. We'll have to see.
Biglesworth23 said:
Code:
SUPER MARIO 64 DS | 760,835
SPIDER-MAN:THE MOVIE2 | 264,227
MADDEN NFL 2005 | 143,135
ASPHALT: URBAN GT | 139,743
THE URBZ:SIMS IN CITY | 123,681
RIDGE RACER DS | 64,199
FEEL THE MAGIC: XY/XX | 52,114
TIGER WOODS PGA 2005 | 37,933
MR. DRILLER: DRILL | 36,420
PING PALS | 29,677
SPRUNG | 15,824
|
Total | 1,667,788And to keep it on-topic, the DS' LTD is 1,377,685 making the Tie-Ratio 1.21:1.
FeedMeAStrayCat
Member
Fuzzy said:
Thank you very much! Is Urbz any good? I've actually read in a few reviews that it's pretty decent..
sonycowboy
Member
I've recalculated the LTD totals for all systems this generation. I've stripped out all hardware skus that were referred to as "Refurbished" and used NPD totals, not percentages for each and every month.
It leads to a slightly different set of totals
LTD as of Jan 2005 NPD
--------------------------------
PS2 27,059,885
XBX 11,372,903
GCN 9,001,894
GBA 26,695,451
NDS 1,377,685
It leads to a slightly different set of totals
LTD as of Jan 2005 NPD
--------------------------------
PS2 27,059,885
XBX 11,372,903
GCN 9,001,894
GBA 26,695,451
NDS 1,377,685
ON the matter of January being a BIG shopping period...
not on anything (considering that PSP sells > DS)... but Japan is currently in a recession and this will impact the sales no doubt. It'd be interesting to see how the consoles/handhelds fare down the line when their economy fare better. I'm more than surprised that DS' rather sissy campaign with UTADA (also Yoshi's Touch and Go's hot chick ad) worked so well in Japan.
not on anything (considering that PSP sells > DS)... but Japan is currently in a recession and this will impact the sales no doubt. It'd be interesting to see how the consoles/handhelds fare down the line when their economy fare better. I'm more than surprised that DS' rather sissy campaign with UTADA (also Yoshi's Touch and Go's hot chick ad) worked so well in Japan.
JoshuaJSlone
Member
Seems like a pretty big slightly. Compared to the numbers I've got (no recalculating, just pasting in whatever was mentioned on GAF that month), the difference is...sonycowboy said:I've recalculated the LTD totals for all systems this generation. I've stripped out all hardware skus that were referred to as "Refurbished" and used NPD totals, not percentages for each and every month.
It leads to a slightly different set of totals
LTD as of Jan 2005 NPD
--------------------------------
PS2 27,059,885
XBX 11,372,903
GCN 9,001,894
GBA 26,695,451
NDS 1,377,685
PS2 -255,104 (-0.9%)
XBX -767,849 (-6.3%)
GCN -281,243 (-3.0%)
GBA -982,935 (-3.6%)
Separately, my numbers for average months ownership of each console out there:
PS2: 25.5 months
GBA: 20.9 months
GCN: 19.3 months
XBX: 18.2 months
Alcibiades
Member
I didn't even know refurbished/used units were counted as part of NPD...
I guess the best overall indicator would still be company #'s given of shipped units, as those cannot be disputed...
when the generation is said and done, we'll probably be looking at those...
I guess the best overall indicator would still be company #'s given of shipped units, as those cannot be disputed...
when the generation is said and done, we'll probably be looking at those...
sonycowboy
Member
JoshuaJSlone said:
Well, I'll tell you that there are two big reasons for the discrepancies.
1) The NPD numbers we got for months were wrong. Sometimes by a small %, but usually more than that. We got horribly off track a long time ago and it got worse from there. I also relied on CSFB back in 2001 and their hardware numbers would frequently be incorrect and they've essentially been our only source for several years.
2) The refurbished numbers for Xbox alone were ~500k, and ~200k for the GC. I mentioned this last month, but nobody thought much of it. I would gladly add them back in, but a refurbished model by definition is a "used" model that was previously bought by someone and thus was already counted. Putting it in again, would be doubing those sales.
That is, unless someone can tell me what these darn refurbished skus are. Why are there so many for the Xbox, but so few for the PS2 & GBA?
NPD restates prior months numbers as they get more data to fill in prior estimates. So it's not a matter of numbers being incorrect. Anyway, if you're backing out refurb sales then the cumulative error is inconsequential.sonycowboy said:
Also, your GBA data for Dec and Jan doesn't seem right. I think you may be missing a SKU or something, the numbers are all lower than what CSFB and news reports indicate.
sonycowboy
Member
Rhindle said:
So....
You deliberately were withholding the handheld numbers?
Get a rope folks.
Seriously though, what'da got? I can try and resolve it with my numbers.
NOTE: I also believe I have ALL of the GBA skus, so I'm pretty confident in my numbers.
Code:
ADVANCE ARCTIC GBA
ADVANCE BLACK GBA
ADVANCE FUCHSIA GBA
ADVANCE GLACIER GBA
ADVANCE INDIGO GBA
ADVANCE LTD PLATINUM GBA
ADVANCE REFURBISHED GBA
ADVANCE SP COBALT GBA
ADVANCE SP FLAME RED GBA
ADVANCE SP ONYX GBA
ADVANCE SP PLATINUM GBA
ADVANCE SP TATTOOED GBA
BLACK W/MARIO WORLD GBA
BLACK W/POKMN CRYST GBA
FUCHSIA W/POKMN CRYST GBA
GBOY ADVANCE SP CLASSIC GBA
GLACIER E-READER BNDL GBA
GLACIER W/POKMN CRYST GBA
INDIGO E-READER BNDL GBA
INDIGO W/POKMN CRYST GBA
MID BLUE W/MARIO KART GBA
POKEMON SYSTEM GBA
SP BUNDLE GBA
SP GOLD W/MARIO ADV 4 GBA
SP ORG/GRN GBADidn't they revise their numbers up? I thought they originally expected to ship 5M globally by the end of March, and then revised that up to 6M. Correct me if I'm wrong. PEACE.jarrod said:Erm, there also seems to be disrepancy on what you mention Nintendo expecting to ship and what they actually expect to ship.
Total handheld sales up 33% for Dec., 60% for January, GBA sales "flat" for Dec.sonycowboy said:So....
You deliberately were withholding the handheld numbers?
Get a rope folks.
Seriously though, what'da got? I can try and resolve it with my numbers.
NOTE: I also believe I have ALL of the GBA skus, so I'm pretty confident in my numbers.
I'm guessing they're official factory refurbs, meaning sent back in to Nintendo/Sony/MS directly and not "traded in" at retail. Discounting them is a bit hit or miss though, as units sent in (which are later refurbished) are usually exchanged for new units to the consumer (which wouldn't get counted at NPD then as there's no "sale"). At least that's how Nintendo works. You should probably just count them to be safe, especially since NPD does.sonycowboy said:
Nope, they were originally expecting 3.5M. That was upped to 4M thanks to strong demand, then upped again to 5M. Given they'll be launching in PAL regions mid March, I think close to 5M isn't going to be far from sell through honestly (which is already around 3.3-3.5M as of the end of January).Pimpwerx said:
sonycowboy
Member
jarrod said:
If they're sent directly in to the HW manufacturer and not at retail, then they wouldn't be in the TRSTS*. The only way to make it in the TRSTS is through retail.
So, if I bring back a broken XBox and they give me an exchange "refurbished" one, should that count as a sale? Also, the average ASP of this sku is $129, which looks an awful lot like people just buying a used system at retail.
* NPD is, of course, the company not the report. Just clarifying since we ALWAYS call it the NPD
jarrod said:
Actually, they did revise their expectations to 6M when they released financial report for Q3:
http://biz.gamedaily.com/features.asp?article_id=8831
http://www.gamespot.com/news/2005/02/03/news_6117814.html
FeedMeAStrayCat
Member
Lionheart said:
While Nintendo probably will not reach the 6 million mark, I think the 5 million mark is doable, as jarrod said. I also think that's mighty impressive, considering the software lineup Nintendo has out right now and the fact that the system has only been out a few months.
Alcibiades
Member
by "sell", I'm pretty sure they mean shipped...
like the GBA's (and unlike the regular consoles), the DS systems don't take up a lot of retailer space, and since they are price-protected in case of price drops, retailers are probably more than willing to stock them...
6 million is very doable as a shipment number I think...
like the GBA's (and unlike the regular consoles), the DS systems don't take up a lot of retailer space, and since they are price-protected in case of price drops, retailers are probably more than willing to stock them...
6 million is very doable as a shipment number I think...
Let's get one thing straight, refurb =/= used.sonycowboy said:
Refurbished units implies damaged/broken machines were sent back to Sony/MS/Nintendo (by consumers, retail, shipping, etc) directly, who then refurbished and repackaged the machines for sale at retail. This isn't like reselling of "trade-ins" at EB or Gamestop, these units come directly from the manufacurers for sale. And for Nintendo (and I'd assume Sony/MS) machines they get under warranty from consumers that aren't repaired are instead replaced by new units (which wouldn't be counted by NPD). See the slippery slope?
A good question to ask would be why does NPD count reburbished hardware if they're simply "used" trade-ins but not software? The answer would be because they're not simply "used", they're new SKUs from the manufacturer and there's no such thing as refurbished software.
Wait what? They revised up again? For the 4th time?! :/Lionheart said:
Sorry pimpy, I was wrong I guess. Still, 6M shipped doesn't sound like a gigantic disparity with sell through, most hardware tends to have a million or more units in the channel... looking at SC's PS2 total there likely 2+ million PS2s in North America alone not sold through. With the PAL launch in mid-March, there's no doubt DS will have passed the 5 million mark sold by the end of the quarter really, which isn't bad at all for 6M shipped.
sonycowboy
Member
jarrod said:
1) Refurbished ARE used. Used are not necessarily refurbished.
2) Are you speculating regarding refurbished units? Because that's the question I've been asking. If EB & Gamestop buy refurbished units from Microsoft, then I think THEY SHOULD be counted. However, if the refurbished units are done internally by these stores, then they shouldn't be counted because if a customer brings in a broken unit and given a new one under a replacement plan, I've been told that the new unit is counted as another sale (because of inventory accounting), thus doubling the count. However, if the transaction were directly to Microsoft, then NPD couldn't possibly count that.
3) If it is true, that EB & Gamestop buy refurbished units from Microsoft and Nintendo, why aren't they buying them from Sony as well? The Sony number is very small compared to the other two, despite having 3-4 times as much hardware out there (and by many reports have more problems).
I'd love for someone to be able to definitively answer this.
Alcibiades
Member
maybe the more solid hardware from Nintendo and Microsoft allows them to fix the units to the point where they are themselves assured that the working condition is suitable for a new purchaser...
I'd be much more confident of owning a pre-owned + refurbished GCN than a pre-owned + refurbished PS2 in terms of how long I expect the system to last...
I'd be much more confident of owning a pre-owned + refurbished GCN than a pre-owned + refurbished PS2 in terms of how long I expect the system to last...
Not necessarily. They could be units damaged in transit or at retail.sonycowboy said:1) Refurbished ARE used. Used are not necessarily refurbished.
Refurbished units are sold to retail from the manufacturers directly, who then sells to consumers. They're factory sealed, that's a dead giveaway. These aren't used trade-ins specific to various stores, 2nd market sales aren't counted by NPD at all.sonycowboy said:
Who knows, maybe it's cheaper to fix GCs and Xboxes comparatively? Maybe SCEA is forced to repair all consumer units under the various class action lawsuits? We really don't know... just how many refurbs are there for all the platforms?sonycowboy said: