Batmonk said:
Explain to me how life began? I mean, by evolutionary standard and scientific standard, how did basic elements become complex enough to become life? The mathematical probability is so small, it's impossible. Without a beginning, I don't see how you can use evolution to disprove God. The same as the idea of and eternal universe. The universe started, we can calculate how long it's been expanding, yet how did it start? HOW did SOMETHING come from NOTHING? That is my question.
Arrgh...I wrote a long reply, but it somehow got lost in the sending.
Your idea of "mathematical probabilty so small" is based on your own scale of what you consider to be appropriate - but I'm reaonsably sure your scale is all out of whack when it comes to origins of life and the time it took. Let me explain.
Thin for a while, before life - a prebiotic soup of chemicals. In this soup, molecule "A" cna spontaneously convert to "B", or "C", or "D", and so on... a whole nubmer of different compounds. This is chemistry. It just makes sense, then, that this soup would be made up of an equilibrium of these chemicals. (we are disregarding the disappearance of "A" for now - you could argue all "A" gets used up, but since we are talking arbitrarily here, "B" could be the next "A").
Anyway, equilibrium of chemicals derived from "A". It wouldn't be hard to imagine that if such a molecule "R", was able to facilitate the conversion - control it if you will, so that it would promote the conversion of "A" to more "R". If this molecule were to exist, it would very quickly take over - it's exponential - when every thing else is turning from "A" at a 1:1 ratio, "R" would start off with 1 and work exponentially - soon, 2, 4, 8, 16,32, 64, 128, 256, 512, etc. "R" would be the dominant chemical in short term.
These things would take place on a micro or even nano second time scale. Like millions of times a second. This is the first indication of sheer scale.
Things would snowball, and "R" would dominate. See, a lot of people think these things happen linearly - but once an event occurs, it can work exponentially, vastly reducing the time scale things would normally occur.
Currently, this molecule is often beleived to be short RNA molcules - one of the first molceules with teh capabiltiy to 'replicate' itself.
Anyway, you might argue (and you have) that the event to start all this off is mathematically improbable. But what is your idea of mathematically improbable? One in a thousand? One in a million? One in BILLION? Thse are good odds.
Let's say one molecule turned into a billion different ones spontaneously, and the odds of having one being able to replicate is one in a billion. The scale of chemical reactions is fast, but let's give an arbitrarily slow conversion of 1 millisecond per generation of chemical. Now the earth is proposed to have been around for 4.6 billion years, with 'life' developing at 4 BYA. That's 600 million years for life to develop. But let's be even more conservative, and say that the first 99% of that time couldn't sustain life. We still have 6 million years to 'start life'.
At one in a billion chance every millisecond, that chance would occur once every 16.6 minutes. Over 6 million years, that one in a billion chance would occur 189 BILLION times. Even if your odds of impossibility are one in a trillion of ever having a molecule develop replicative ability, it would've happened 189 million times over a course of 6 million years.
This combined with the fact that things will snowball once it does occur, with selection being strong, I find it a mathematical improbability that it wouldn't occur. This is only regarding one chemical turning over - consider the abundance of those chemicals, and the number of different ones. Also, we have a kind of benefit of 'hindsight' - We're looking back and wondering how it all happened to get to where we are now, thinking it an imposibility, as if all the other possibilities were unviable. It's like having a billion sided dice, rolling 345975149, and then syaing wow, it was a one in a billion chance we'd get here.
Also considering that there are a lot more planets that this could happen on. Sure life would be different if it happened differently, but it would still be life, and maybe we'd just be wondering the same thing.
Anyway, it;s all arbitrary - you can't put a probability on life occuring (well you can, but you need the data from several other control enivronments, and billions of years of data at that) - but the point is, the scale is not what you think it is.
Summary: your scale of improbability is whacked. By the meer fact it has a probability, that makes it a possibility, and on the time scales we're talking about, a likely probability that replicative molcules would come about.
Evolution into complex beings? Another story. But given that adaptation ISN'T random - it's highly selective - I'd say it's also a good bet. Another different matter also, given how complex life can be - I find it hard to believe that anything could be intelligent enough to design it.
I guess there's also the argument of when is life life? Is a virus alive? It doesn't have all the bits required to replicate on its own, but will hijack you machinery to make its machinery to carry on. Some very simple, yet very effective viruses out there. As little as a handful of genes is all it takes.