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Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball Prelim. US Election Ratings: Hello Madame President

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A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Larry Sabato, well-renowned political analyst/pundit from the University of Virginia's Center for Politics and founder of the website Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball just updated his race ratings for the first time in over a year, to account for the likelihood of a Clinton vs. Trump match-up. The result -

2016_03_31_pres_600.png


GOP is in some deep shit.

Election analysts prefer close elections, but there was nothing we could do to make this one close. Clinton’s total is 347 electoral votes, which includes 190 safe, 57 likely, and 100 that lean in her direction. Trump has a total of 191 (142 safe, 48 likely, and 1 leans).

Over the years we’ve put much emphasis on the seven super-swing states: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Virginia. While some will fall to the Democrats less readily than others, it is difficult to see any that Trump is likely to grab. In fact, four normally Republican states (Arizona, Georgia, Indiana, and Missouri) would be somewhat less secure for the GOP than usual. North Carolina, which normally leans slightly to the GOP, would also be well within Clinton’s grasp in this election after being Mitt Romney’s closest win in 2012.

The probability is that the Clinton campaign will target at least one or two of the four Likely Republican states, which would have the effect of helping Democratic Senate nominees where they exist (all of those states have Senate races in November). Because Clinton’s objectives will surely include recapture of the Senate, no doubt her campaign will keep in mind the competitive contests that could yield the net four seats for a tied Senate or five seats for outright Democratic control.
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In all four of the states rated Likely Republican, there are competitive Senate races, so Clinton may have incentive to go big in those if the traditional swing states are looking locked up.

Of course:

If you’re unhappy with this projection of November’s results, dear reader, just wait a while. No analyst that we know correctly predicted the GOP nominating battle. Why should the general election be any different? The roller coaster of 2016 will lead to revisions — perhaps massive — in this, our Electoral College map. Expect new calculations at regular intervals in this exceptionally unpredictable campaign.

However, our first update in 2016 does reflect that the GOP primary battle has made the Republicans general election underdogs. They are not unquestionably doomed to this fate: If we were totally confident about the November outcome, we’d call Florida, Ohio, and the other swing states “safe” for Democrats instead of just leaning them. So there is a long way to go, and after the rise of Trump we’re not even close to 100% confident of much of anything. But a general election race that at the start of the cycle looked like a Toss-up just isn’t right now, which is why we have made such dramatic changes to our ratings.
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This could all certainly change, but I'm certainly feeling pretty good as a Democrat right about now.
 
M

Maengun1

Member
transience said:
NC leaning D? I'll believe it when I see it

though with Trump, I guess any result is on the table
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Obama won it in 2008 and barely lost it in 2012 though.

Anyway, nice map. I keep waiting for Georgia to turn. I'd like to see the dems push for Arizona too.
 
T

tearsintherain

Member
yeah as a fiscal conservative and social moderate I am pretty much resigned to 8 more years of Clinton's in the white house, the republicans have done too much damage to themselves to really win nationally.

Political cycle continues though, democrats will pick up some house and senate seats this year, decide to do some really dumb things, the mad voters will give control back to the republicans of the house/senate over the next 4 years, and 4 more years of abysmal gridlock after that and the cycle will start again. Hoping a third party forms at some point but doubtful in my life.
 
B

Betty

Banned
Clinton winning is going to be so entertaining.

The sourness from Trump and his supporters will be eternal, he'll spin it and cry for a recount, accusing the Democrats and maybe even the GOP of conspiring to rig the election against him.

Of course a Trump victory would be entertaining too... but for very different reasons.
 
Link

Link

The Autumn Wind
tearsintherain said:
yeah as a fiscal conservative and social moderate I am pretty much resigned to 8 more years of Clinton's in the white house, the republicans have done too much damage to themselves to really win nationally.

Political cycle continues though, democrats will pick up some house and senate seats this year, decide to do some really dumb things, the mad voters will give control back to the republicans of the house/senate over the next 4 years, and 4 more years of abysmal gridlock after that and the cycle will start again. Hoping a third party forms at some point but doubtful in my life.
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Like actually get shit done that benefits the country?
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
I just made my map, but yeah. Same shit. At this point (and things could change), it's not even close.

g3b9exj.png


I don't think Indiana and Missouri will go for Trump at the end of the day, but I do think that they'll be closer than Obama in 2012 because Clinton will campaign there. I probably should've put Michigan as Safe D, but whatever.
 
B

Brinbe

Member
Duh... doesn't take a political scientist to see this November as a near repeat/mix of 2008/2012. Will be interesting to see if/when the demographics in places like GA/TX really turn those a bit purple, as that will really shake things up. Maybe in 2020/2024.
 
J

johnsmith

remember me
I think that's the absolute best case scenario for the GOP in a Clinton vs Trump matchup. I can see AZ, GA, IN and MO all going blue with the way Trump's been acting.
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
johnsmith said:
I think that's the absolute best case scenario for the GOP in a Clinton vs Trump matchup. I can see AZ, GA, IN and MO all going blue with the way Trump's been acting.
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I agree. I think it's much more likely that we'll be looked like Montana polls than North Carolina polls come late October.
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
Bam Bam Baklava said:
What if GOP steal the nom from Trump and give it to Cruz? He is polling too well in the GE for such a controversial guy.
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I don't think those numbers would hold under the scrutiny that Trump is getting at the moment.

I mean he's already losing by 4-5 points and the oxygen is completely sucked out of the Republican side by Trump.
 
B

Brinbe

Member
Bam Bam Baklava said:
What if GOP steal the nom from Trump and give it to Cruz? He is polling too well in the GE for such a controversial guy.
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Sabato covers him too in his analysis. Nothing much changes except maybe firming up support in GOP-leaning places like Missouri/Indiana/Arizona.

But Cruz would be an easier target to run against by Dems and Romney ran extremely close to Obama in national polling by the end in 2012 and still got destroyed. So it'll be the same thing with Cruz. There's about zero chance Ted Cruz becomes President.
 
C

Cipherr

Member
Even the GOP know that Trumps a disaster. They aren't trying to undermine him for fun. They are scared shitless. It's amazing to me that people think Trump has a chance. Its sooooo disconnected from reality.

Link said:
Like actually get shit done that benefits the country?
Click to expand...

Or maybe fight amongst each other like they did the first two years of Obamas term....

Let's not pretend like things are perfect on our side. They aren't; and Liberals are known to do some dumb shit time to time.
 
davepoobond

davepoobond

you can't put a price on sparks
i think we can assume that any states that have passed voter suppression laws since the voting rights act was gutted will be safely Republican this time around. seems like they were covered, from what i know.
 
Z

Zophar

Member
davepoobond said:
i think we can assume that any states that have passed voter suppression laws since the voting rights act was gutted will be safely Republican this time around. seems like they were covered, from what i know.
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Like Citizens United, I actually expect this to be a smaller factor than doomsayers suggest. Bad for House seats, certainly, but not a major impact on the Presidency vote.
 
B

Bel Marduk

Banned
transience said:
NC leaning D? I'll believe it when I see it

though with Trump, I guess any result is on the table
Click to expand...

I don't believe NC will vote Democratic

It did in 2008 but only because of increased African American turnout

Since then NC Republicans have done everything they can to suppress the vote and oppress minorities
 
J

johnny956

Member
ivysaur12 said:
I just made my map, but yeah. Same shit. At this point (and things could change), it's not even close.

g3b9exj.png


I don't think Indiana and Missouri will go for Trump at the end of the day, but I do think that they'll be closer than Obama in 2012 because Clinton will campaign there. I probably should've put Michigan as Safe D, but whatever.
Click to expand...

I wish I could say Missouri would go D this cycle but just not seeing it happen. You would think with us seeing all the problems in Kansas would make it consider it. We have higher income taxe rates then Kansas and Illinois and are in substantially better shape then both states. Instead we have the idiot Rex who pushed his tax ideas in Kansas doing the same in Missouri.
 
K

kirblar

Member
johnny956 said:
I wish I could say Missouri would go D this cycle but just not seeing it happen. You would think with us seeing all the problems in Kansas would make it consider it. We have higher income taxe rates then Kansas and Illinois and are in substantially better shape then both states. Instead we have the idiot Rex who pushed his tax ideas in Kansas doing the same in Missouri.
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*Votes in Brownback*

*Economy goes to shit*

*Blames Obama*
 
davepoobond

davepoobond

you can't put a price on sparks
Zophar said:
Like Citizens United, I actually expect this to be a smaller factor than doomsayers suggest. Bad for House seats, certainly, but not a major impact on the Presidency vote.
Click to expand...

maybe. but we saw what happened in Arizona.

I hope that there is the same sort of reaction if it ends up being ridiculously restrictive, though I imagine they mostly take small, tempered, steps to absolute voter suppression so this isn't as bad as it might be in 30 years without a voting rights action.
 
L

LCGeek

formerly sane
I think the map is off. I can feel it in WI. There are trump supporters but I know plenty who will sit out who are republican or who might vote dem just to not see him ever get in.

The hate is real, I use to think clinton hate was real but trump has his own haters that are building who are not normal political types who might enter and sway things. I'm calling it now in this topic that map understatement to what will happen if trump gets nomination.
 
Z

ZealousD

Makes world leading predictions like "The sun will rise tomorrow"
That's basically Obama's 2008 map minus Indiana. Damn.

Also kind of depressing that the map really hasn't changed much since 2000.
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
johnny956 said:
I wish I could say Missouri would go D this cycle but just not seeing it happen. You would think with us seeing all the problems in Kansas would make it consider it. We have higher income taxe rates then Kansas and Illinois and are in substantially better shape then both states. Instead we have the idiot Rex who pushed his tax ideas in Kansas doing the same in Missouri.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I had it as Likely Republican. I think the margin will be in single digits.
 
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