Support NeoGAF

[Spineker]

Ukraine's parliament just passed a bill giving the Dutch and Australians joint control over the MH17 crash site, with the power to defend themselves if necessary.

External download of the text (RTF)

Relevant portions:

This is pretty unprecedented, to say the least. The Ukraine basically just gave the Aussies and Dutch permission to occupy a small section of their country.

Well....It technically still is.

 

[Sibylus]

They should defend themselves against tanks and heavy artillery? This is a farce.

If the rebels are stupid enough to fire on the teams recovering wreckage at the crash site, they'll annihilate any of the international esteem they haven't already destroyed. Any willing to try will have to come out of hiding and expose themselves to Ukraine's armed forces to do so.

It's far removed from farcical. It'll materially weaken an already weak rebel position in the Southeast.

 

[dejay]

They should defend themselves against tanks and heavy artillery? This is a farce.

The plan as far as the Australian side goes is to go in unarmed. The agreement is a contingency as far as I know. It also allows use of Australian sniffer dogs.

 

[CTLance]

Wow, that's a pretty damn generous offering from Ukraine. Doubt there are many governments on this here mudball who would give up control of their own land to such an extent.

Hopefully this can just remain a piece of paper and the rebels will just stay the fuck away. I don't wanna see Russia go to town when a struggle with "occupation forces" ends up with a wounded "freedom fighter".

 

[CassSept]

A ridiculous story spread yesterday about a russian soldier who didn't know of geo-tagging and accidentally sharing a selfie inside BUK on Ukrainian territory, anyone knows if there is any truth or credible source to this? Story spread pretty fast on my fb feed but honestly I know better than to trust a random story like this and I can't find a source.

 

[Tacitus_]

A ridiculous story spread yesterday about a russian soldier who didn't know of geo-tagging and accidentally sharing a selfie inside BUK on Ukrainian territory, anyone knows if there is any truth or credible source to this? Story spread pretty fast on my fb feed but honestly I know better than to trust a random story like this and I can't find a source.

If it's the same I'm thinking of, buk here is russian slang for a laptop. Though I'm not sure if he was in Ukraine or not.

E: scratch that, apparently there's a new one that popped up. Dunno how credible it is tho.

 

[Partial Gamification]

A man heard cursing about “spies” aboard Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 in a phone call allegedly intercepted just after the plane was shot down is the leader of a band of Russian Cossacks and may have been involved in the firing of the fatal missile, U.S. officials tell NBC News.

Technical analysis has confirmed that the voice heard on the audiotape obtained by Ukrainian authorities is that of Nikolai Ivanovich Kozitsyn, longtime leader of Russia’s Don Cossacks, according to the intelligence officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry also has vouched for the authenticity of the intercepted calls.
[...]
http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/uk...-cossack-leader-made-spies-phone-call-n163311

opinion piece 4 Dec 2012:

[...]
Former General Staff head Nikolai Makarov said that in the region of the great Don Cossacks, about 30,000 men came of military age, of whom only 1,800 were actually enrolled in the ranks of the army. That was 30 percent more than joined before. In 2010, a Defense Ministry source told Interfax that the number of actual Cossacks in the so-called Cossack units "was not more than 2 percent, and in a number of subunits, not a single Cossack was serving."

As it turns out, the Cossacks are willing to patrol Moscow streets, but they refuse to perform their main historical function: serving in the armed forces. In reality, Cossacks are no different from the rest of the population. All the talk that Cossacks represent generations of pedigreed fighters imbued with a burning desire to defend the motherland is nonsense.

As for "state service," the Cossack community has shown a clear interest in signing contracts with local authorities to uphold public order or protecting nature reserves. Translated into modern-day Russian, this may mean they want to run a racket collecting bribes from criminals or illegal businesses. In this way, Russian authorities are hoping that they can gain a loyal quasi-police force that can help break up street protests, while at the same time using them to pad the numbers for army recruits and officers. In short, the Kremlin wants to incorporate an invented "elite" group of Russians into the siloviki.

I suspect that the patrols of Moscow streets by fake Cossacks is just the first step toward their control over such profitable sectors as collection of parking fees in the city center. Don't be surpised if the "Kubansksaya gang" or "Donskaya gang," referring to the centers of Cossack culture in the Rostov and Krasnodar regions, become as recognizable as the other famous Russian organized crime groups, such as the Tambov or Orekhovskaya gangs.
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinion/article/a-cossack-mafia-in-the-making/472436.html

 

[mikeyw85]

Has anyone read more similar to this? http://www.nst.com.my/node/20925

 

[Kinan]

Oh my, just read that new SBU theory about why MH17 was shot down. It is so crazy that I almost believe it. In short, our security service believes that terrorist were actually trying to shot down an Aeroflot plane Moscow-Larnaka that was flying nearby at almost the same time. That would create immediate casus belly for Russia to step in. Mistake was an error on BUK operators side. They were ordered (as is known from radio interceptions) to bring BUK to Pervomaysk. There are, however, two places with almost the same name, and, since those guys were not locals, they made a mistake and brought the system to wrong one.

This may be the mistake that saved Ukraine as we know it.

 

[antonz]

Dutch Government released a Map indicating debris locations, where they searched etc.Interesting tidbit is the areas Russian rebels refused access too. some grids right smack dab in middle of areas they were allowed. Have to wonder what they were hiding.

 

[ymoc]

EDIT: Didn't notice mikey's source is basically the same, with a different url.

Some Malaysian news:

http://www.nst.com.my/node/20961

In a damning report dated Aug 3, headlined “Flight 17 Shoot-Down Scenario Shifts”, Associated Press reporter Robert Parry said “some US intelligence sources had concluded that the rebels and Russia were likely not at fault and that it appears Ukrainian government forces were to blame”.

“There have been two or three pieces of fuselage that have been really pockmarked with what almost looks like machinegun fire; very, very strong machinegun fire,”

“It had to have been a hail of bullets from both sides that brought the plane down. This is Haisenko’s main discovery. You can’t have projectiles going in both directions — into the left-hand-side fuselage panel from both its left and right sides — unless they are coming at the panel from different directions.

I for one do not buy this Putin brainwashing propaganda.

 

[SRG01]

EDIT: Didn't notice mikey's source is basically the same, with a different url.

Some Malaysian news:

http://www.nst.com.my/node/20961

I for one do not buy this Putin brainwashing propaganda.

... Okay, first off, this article makes no sense. Small-arm machine gun fire? On an aircraft at 30k+ ft? Second, how on earth does machine gun fire even reverse the blame?

 

[PotatoeMasher]

Isn't a surface-to-air missile detonated once it's close to the plane leaving a smattering of pocks like that, whereas a Ukrainian military jet shooting it down would be from a single missile impact?

 

[Yamauchi]

... Okay, first off, this article makes no sense. Small-arm machine gun fire? On an aircraft at 30k+ ft? Second, how on earth does machine gun fire even reverse the blame?

Check out the article. It speculates that a Ukrainian military aircraft shot down the airliner.

 

[Showaddy]

EDIT: Didn't notice mikey's source is basically the same, with a different url.

Some Malaysian news:

http://www.nst.com.my/node/20961

I for one do not buy this Putin brainwashing propaganda.

Lol at Machine-Gun fire reaching 30,000 ft.

 

[antonz]

Isn't a surface-to-air missile detonated once it's close to the plane leaving a smattering of pocks like that, whereas a Ukrainian military jet shooting it down would be from a single missile impact?

Yeah the Surface to Air style approaches to about 70 feet then explodes and basically shotguns the target with shrapnel so it cannot remain in flight.

The entire it was a fighter argument Russia pushes is impossible and debunked by pure science. A Fighter that can only go up to 5,000meters when armed is not going to reach 33,000 feet as Russia claims. Even barebones with no weapons whatsoever the SU-25 can only reach around 7000 meters which would still be more than 3,000 meters short of target.

Shrapnel markings etc. and the heavy damage around the lower cockpit more or less indicate the missile approached them from the East as details indicate and exploded below the cockpit and then peppered the fuselage

 

[RunWhiteBoyRun]

Check out the article. It speculates that a Ukrainian military aircraft shot down the airliner.

Honest question. What other planes were detected in the area within range to do this?

 

[Particle Physicist]

EDIT: Didn't notice mikey's source is basically the same, with a different url.

Some Malaysian news:

http://www.nst.com.my/node/20961

I for one do not buy this Putin brainwashing propaganda.

lol. Like we can trust this shit after investigators were completely blocked from the crash site for quite a while.

 

[Yamauchi]

Yeah the Surface to Air style approaches to about 70 feet then explodes and basically shotguns the target with shrapnel so it cannot remain in flight.

The entire it was a fighter argument Russia pushes is impossible and debunked by pure science. A Fighter that can only go up to 5,000meters when armed is not going to reach 33,000 feet as Russia claims. Even barebones with no weapons whatsoever the SU-25 can only reach around 7000 meters which would still be more than 3,000 meters short of target.

Shrapnel markings etc. and the heavy damage around the lower cockpit more or less indicate the missile approached them from the East as details indicate and exploded below the cockpit and then peppered the fuselage

Just to be clear, I believe the pro-Russian rebels brought this down.

That said, Ukraine has operational Su-27s, and these aircraft have a flight ceiling of about 60,000 feet.

 

[Anteo]

Lol at Machine-Gun fire reaching 30,000 ft.

You could fire it from 29,999 ft

 

[ymoc]

lol. Like we can trust this shit after investigators were completely blocked from the crash site for quite a while.

I hear ya.
The rebels sealed that place off, rambo'd the shit out of the remains with heavy machinery and now they pretend it was a false flag operation by Ukraine. Only a conspiracy nutter could fall for that.
Let's just wait a few more months until UK examines those black boxes. That shit must be under highest scrutiny, so I actually don't expect any news for at least a year or two.

 

[soepje]

lol. Like we can trust this shit after investigators were completely blocked from the crash site for quite a while.

Weren't there also reports within a day or two after the crash that rebels had 'cleaned up' parts of the fuselage asap?

 

[DC R1D3R]

Weren't there also reports within a day or two after the crash that rebels had 'cleaned up' parts of the fuselage asap?

yeh…like where's all the video recording of those scenes?

 

[ymoc]

Courtesy by the Ukraine thread
http://www.onderzoeksraad.nl/upload...3acad0ceprem-rapport-mh-17-en-interactief.pdf
The preliminary report.

So, what exactly are "high energy objects" that penetrated the airplane?
BUK shrapnel missile?

 

[DrM]

So, what exactly are "high energy objects" that penetrated the airplane?
BUK shrapnel missile?

Shrapnel parts from anti air missile. Looks like it detonated on the side and slightly above cockpit. Plane disintegrated into several pieces due to explosive decompression, with nose and front part colliding into the ground near flight path, and rear section coming down several kms away

 

[ymoc]

Shrapnel parts from anti air missile. Looks like it detonated on the side and slightly above cockpit. Plane disintegrated into several pieces due to explosive decompression, with nose and front part colliding into the ground near flight path, and rear section coming down several kms away

The explosion must have detonated on the back side though, if the damage on the wing is to be acknowledged?

 

[MisterFalcon]

The damage on the wing is much too isolated to be caused by a missile explosion. The damage at the front is a mass of small and larger impacts consistent with shrapnel while the wing is just one big impact. It's probably a part of the plane that came off that hit it.

 

[Tacitus_]

Courtesy by the Ukraine thread
http://www.onderzoeksraad.nl/upload...3acad0ceprem-rapport-mh-17-en-interactief.pdf
The preliminary report.

So, what exactly are "high energy objects" that penetrated the airplane?
BUK shrapnel missile?

The BBC article says that the damage is consistent with the operating principles of a BUK missile.

 

[Phantast2k]

An incredibly detailed, independent analysis by "bellingcat" / "Brown Moses" has been released. It follows the origin of the Buk anti-air def. system from Russia to more or less where mh17 went down and back to Russia.
Brown Moses is this guy: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eliot_Higgins

@bellingcat

Origin of the Separatists’ Buk: A Bellingcat Investigation
Web - https://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-...e-separatists-buk-a-bellingcat-investigation/ …
PDF - https://www.bellingcat.com/wp-conte...paratists-Buk-A-Bellingcat-Investigation1.pdf …

Here's an interactive map:

‏@vpkivimaki
Locations of Buk convoy sightings visualized on a lovely map by the awesome folks of @Mapbox. https://www.mapbox.com/labs/bellingcat/index.html

‏@vpkivimaki
Expert from Finnish National Defence University: @bellingcat's Buk report quite convincing, analysis done thoroughly http://m.mtv.fi/uutiset/ulkomaat/ar...inalliset-ampuivat-malesialaiskonetta/4507704

/the level of detail is crazy, especially when it comes to geo-location (linked in the web version).

 

[pestul]

An incredibly detailed, independent analysis by "bellingcat" / "Brown Moses" has been released. It follows the origin of the Buk anti-air def. system from Russia to more or less where mh17 went down and back to Russia.
Brown Moses is this guy: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eliot_Higgins


Here's an interactive map:




/the level of detail is crazy, especially when it comes to geo-location (linked in the web version).

Very well done. I'd like to see this refuted.

 

[Phantast2k]

Very well done. I'd like to see this refuted.

Yeah, me too.

What's also been making rounds on twitter today are these flickr albums:
https://www.flickr.com/photos/podpolkovnikvvs/sets/

Different kinds of shrapnel can be seen in the MH17 wreckage some of which point to Buk usage:
http://www.whathappenedtoflightmh17...7-crash-site-show-various-pieces-of-shrapnel/
(author: https://twitter.com/marcelvandenber )
"This cube shaped piece of metal shown in the three images below has been identified by an expert as shrapnel of a SA-11 (Buk code name):

And here are the entry points which match this form of shrapnel (as opposed to other one which is from Grad rockets and appear to be contamination):

Hope the Dutch investigators could secure some of this shrapnel.

In related news:
Dutch PM pushes Russia's Vladamir Putin for more assistance in crash investigation

Vladimir Putin cannot avoid me at G20 summit, warns Tony Abbott
Australian PM follows up on vow to "shirtfront" Russian president by claiming Mr Putin won't be able to avoid a "conversation" about MH17 at Brisbane G20 summit next week

Flight MH17: Nine crash victims still unaccounted for

/Some more info supporting the notion that the shrapnel cubes came from Buk rockets. This is a predecessor of the system:

2K12 Kub......Production continued until 1983, when the 9K37 Buk / SA-11 Gadfly replaced it in production.

The 3N12 57 kg blast-fragmention warhead is mounted behind the fuse.

http://www.ausairpower.net/APA-2K12-Kvadrat.html

 

[Purkake4]

Glad the investigation is still going on. The belling cat investigation looks very interesting.