March 2017 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, April 11th

Mory Dunz said:
shouldn't it strive to win every month this year outside of Scorpio month? Esp if Smash and Pokemon are real.

I figured it'd be slightly disappointing if it didn't
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So you are already expecting Switch to beat PS4 in november and december when PS4 will probably have its best holiday lineup ever and will be cheap as hell? And if switch doesn't that will be slightly disappointing? I mean Switch had great launch month but some of you guys already treat it like it's Wii.
 
Sangetsu-II said:
But PS4 in December was pretty supplied constraint if I remember correctly so it didn't have the Holiday advantage people assume it did.
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Yes, but you also expect sales to always be high in Q4, so manufacturers and store buyers are going to load up with stock. Therefore, they had the supply to sell. (Shortages ended after a few months, so they weren't particularly severe.) It had a Q4 shipment advantage, then, as it was expected to sell a ton being the new thing (with XB1) and the holidays. Therefore, stores bought a ton to sell.

PS4 is still well ahead of NSW's pace, and it remains to be seen if NSW will keep up any momentum through the year. I don't think it really matters, though. Western third-parties have done a knockout job segregating the Nintendo game buying audience from exposure to their products, so a Switch success is unlikely to have much of an impact on long-term prospects for PS4/Pro and XB1/Scorpio, who rely almost exclusively on Western third-parties, at this point.
 
I still haven't seen a Switch in stock but YMMV. Expecting Nintendo to sell what they ship in April so curious to see how much they ship.
 
KillerMan91 said:
So you are already expecting Switch to beat PS4 in november and december when PS4 will probably have its best holiday lineup ever and will be cheap as hell? And if switch doesn't that will be slightly disappointing? I mean Switch had great launch month but some of you guys already treat it like it's Wii.
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I think suggesting Nintendo would be disappointed if they don't win every month is a massive stretch. Having said that I don't think it's crazy to think the switch will outsell the PS4 in November and December. Nintendo traditionally have big sales during the holidays and they will have a few big sellers coming this holidays. Obviously it's hard to tell this early but the potential is there for a big holiday season.

Not sure what to expect from the PS4. It does have a lot of big SW coming but it's also in its 4th year and that alone won't cause it to have a bigger holiday than last year. However with Scorpio coming I think a price cut is likely and spending how big the price cut is that could spur sales a lot.
 
BruceLeeRoy said:
What are the expectations for Horizon?
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I think it'll be north of 1 million, somewhere around 1.1 million. They game did massive numbers (2.6 million WW in just two weeks), so the NA numbers will be big as well.

Mrbob said:
I still haven't seen a Switch in stock but YMMV. Expecting Nintendo to sell what they ship in April so curious to see how much they ship.
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I think they are shipping quite a lot of units for April because of Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, and I expect May and June to get less shipment. Depending on whether they can produce the units, I think they might ship close to 1.5 million units in April, but I'm not the expert here so it's just an uneducated estimation.
 
Ascenion said:
I'm gonna go out on a limb here and say you don't really understand what tentpole means. Since it's borrowed from film tentpole means a movie that supports the financials of a movie/production studio through the film itself and various other merchandising opportunities. So much so it can occasionally mitigate losses on other things. So Disney for example can make films that bomb because Star Wars/Marvel will make a billion guaranteed off the film alone not counting the merchandise. So in this case Sony can make Horizon because Uncharted 4 is a guaranteed hit basically. A new IP doesn't have this ability because it is an unproven new IP. People hype things that fail all the time. Horizon is not a tentpole franchise. It probably will be but at the moment it isn't and it definitely wasn't before launch.
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Pretty sure you don't fully understand what "tentpole" means then. It has nothing to do with being part of a big franchise or being a proven success. Horizon absolutely was a tentpole release.
 
AdventureRacing said:
I think suggesting Nintendo would be disappointed if they don't win every month is a massive stretch. Having said that I don't think it's crazy to think the switch will outsell the PS4 in November and December. Nintendo traditionally have big sales during the holidays and they will have a few big sellers coming this holidays. Obviously it's hard to tell this early but the potential is there for a big holiday season.

Not sure what to expect from the PS4. It does have a lot of big SW coming but it's also in its 4th year and that alone won't cause it to have a bigger holiday than last year. However with Scorpio coming I think a price cut is likely and spending how big the price cut is that could spur sales a lot.
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While PS4 might not hit the heights of holiday season 2015 I absolutely think it can outperform last year despite being year older. During last holiday season top three multiplatform AAA games underperformed rather massively. This year you have new Battlefront with new Star Wars movie. You have Destiny 2 which is following massive success of first Destiny. You have new COD that might get a boost from change of setting and then of course if Rockstar can actually hit the the release date you have RDR 2 that will be absolutely massive after GTA V. Nintendo traditionally has big holidays but having first holiday season so massive that it beats PS4s this holiday season is pretty damn optimistic at this point. If Switch can match holiday season of 3DS in 2011 with much higher price I would count that as a big success.
 
BruceLeeRoy said:
What are the expectations for Horizon?
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No raw numbers but this past month, from release on 2/28 to April 2017, they saw record Horizon Zero Dawn engagement with 1.1 billion turkeys killed globally, a 14 percent increase week-over-week. Looking ahead, we are excited to share more about our DLC plans for Horizon, including "The Crucible of Rost".

J/K
 
KillerMan91 said:
While PS4 might not hit the heights of holiday season 2015 I absolutely think it can outperform last year despite being year older. During last holiday season top three multiplatform AAA games underperformed rather massively. This year you have new Battlefront with new Star Wars movie. You have Destiny 2 which is following massive success of first Destiny. You have new COD that might get a boost from change of setting and then of course if Rockstar can actually hit the the release date you have RDR 2 that will be absolutely massive after GTA V. Nintendo traditionally has big holidays but having first holiday season so massive that it beats PS4s this holiday season is pretty damn optimistic at this point. If Switch can match holiday season of 3DS in 2011 with much higher price I would count that as a big success.
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I don't really disagree with any of this. If the switch comes anywhere close to the PS4 this holiday season I think Nintendo would be very happy.
 
Zedark said:
I think it'll be north of 1 million, somewhere around 1.1 million. They game did massive numbers (2.6 million WW in just two weeks), so the NA numbers will be big as well.



I think they are shipping quite a lot of units for April because of Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, and I expect May and June to get less shipment. Depending on whether they can produce the units, I think they might ship close to 1.5 million units in April, but I'm not the expert here so it's just an uneducated estimation.
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eh, 1.1 million is really high tbh. No other MS or Sony exclusive has broken 1 million this gen. Halo 5, UC4 and Titanfall were all in the high 800 to 900k range. Horizon is probably somewhere closer to 700-750k not counting digital. And with Sony stuff, its likely that WW did a lot of heavy lifting as opposed to a MS game, where the US is their strongest market
 
blakep267 said:
eh, 1.1 million is really high tbh. No other MS or Sony exclusive has broken 1 million this gen. Halo 5, UC4 and Titanfall were all in the high 800 to 900k range. Horizon is probably somewhere closer to 700-750k not counting digital
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You're right, I forgot about UC4 and got a bit carried away. It's probably somewhere between 700k-800k: it is a new big IP, but it has a whole month of tracking, so that offsets stuff a bit.
 
KillerMan91 said:
So you are already expecting Switch to beat PS4 in november and december when PS4 will probably have its best holiday lineup ever and will be cheap as hell? And if switch doesn't that will be slightly disappointing? I mean Switch had great launch month but some of you guys already treat it like it's Wii.
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think you're talking to the wrong guy concerning that sentiment
 
KillerMan91 said:
So you are already expecting Switch to beat PS4 in november and december when PS4 will probably have its best holiday lineup ever and will be cheap as hell? And if switch doesn't that will be slightly disappointing? I mean Switch had great launch month but some of you guys already treat it like it's Wii.
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I mean it's not out of the realm of possibility. If the switch has a $299 Zelda or Splatoon bundle, Mario and a Pokémon game launching. And Nintendo actually has the stock allocated, I could see it
 
KillerMan91 said:
?. Allan posted that Switch has Q2 months in lock and you replied to that it should win all months of the year or else it will be slightly disappointing. I don't see how I replied to wrong person (?).
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I forgot about BFII for Christmas and didn't know PS4 was going to be cheap (?), so I only mentioned scorpio month. But yeah, holidays could go anyway. Admittedly, I was more referencing the upcoming months. Though if stock is there, they'd want to be close during Christmas at least.

During the rest of the months, selling around or more than ~200-300k or w/e PS4 does should be doable considering 2017 would be one of the best lineups they can muster ever (1st party AAA wise) if the rumors are true. So yes, selling less than the PS4 each month would be disappointing. Especially near Splatoon, Smash, Pokemon if they exist.

I've been telling people to calm down for weeks about projecting sales. So yeah, your wii comment is for the wrong person
 
750k will be the minimum for Horizon with north of 1 million in play if we include the digital NPD number imo.

The 2.6 million number in 2 weeks has to mean a very strong correlation of sales in NA
 
blakep267 said:
eh, 1.1 million is really high tbh. No other MS or Sony exclusive has broken 1 million this gen. Halo 5, UC4 and Titanfall were all in the high 800 to 900k range. Horizon is probably somewhere closer to 700-750k not counting digital. And with Sony stuff, its likely that WW did a lot of heavy lifting as opposed to a MS game, where the US is their strongest market
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Didn't Titanfall break it with bundles
 
LordKano said:
Are we expecting a Ghost Recon > Zelda > Horizon podium ?
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I definitely expect those three games and Mass Effect in the top 4. I think the order is a bit rough to predict, but if forced I'd say

1. Zelda
2. Ghost Recon
3. Mass Effect
4. Horizon

Individual SKU version:

1. Zelda Switch
2. Ghost Recon PS4
3. Ghost Recon XB1
4. Horizon
5. Mass Effect XB1
6. Mass Effect PS4
7. Zelda WiiU
 
People already saying switch will outsell PS4....Let's wait and see what it does after launch month first, come on. Switch doesn't have the big third parties and ps4 will be 199 this holiday. It is not happening.
 
I would be really impressed if Switch outdoes PS4 this holiday. I think PS4 will skyrocket this year because of the huge marketing and the low price for the console. Switch even being on par with PS4 would be really good.
 
Zedark said:
I think they are shipping quite a lot of units for April because of Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, and I expect May and June to get less shipment. Depending on whether they can produce the units, I think they might ship close to 1.5 million units in April, but I'm not the expert here so it's just an uneducated estimation.
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Worldwide or just in the USA? I don't see 1.5 million in USA alone, heck that would be tough worldwide unless production is really cranking now....was thinking more along the lines of 300k-500K for April shipments in USA.
 
Mrbob said:
Worldwide or just in the USA? I don't see 1.5 million in USA alone, heck that would be tough worldwide unless production is really cranking now....was thinking more along the lines of 300k-500K for April shipments in USA.
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Worldwide, I'm not expecting them to improve their launch month or anything. I do expect them to have plans for large shipments for MK8D.
 
Liabe Brave said:
I definitely expect those three games and Mass Effect in the top 4. I think the order is a bit rough to predict, but if forced I'd say

1. Zelda
2. Ghost Recon
3. Mass Effect
4. Horizon

Individual SKU version:

1. Zelda Switch
2. Ghost Recon PS4
3. Ghost Recon XB1
4. Horizon
5. Mass Effect XB1
6. Mass Effect PS4
7. Zelda WiiU
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I'd bet heavily against Wildlands PS4 outselling Horizon.
 
Liabe Brave said:
I definitely expect those three games and Mass Effect in the top 4. I think the order is a bit rough to predict, but if forced I'd say

1. Zelda
2. Ghost Recon
3. Mass Effect
4. Horizon

Individual SKU version:

1. Zelda Switch
2. Ghost Recon PS4
3. Ghost Recon XB1
4. Horizon
5. Mass Effect XB1
6. Mass Effect PS4
7. Zelda WiiU
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I'd bet that the Xbox version of wildlands performs way better than the PlayStation version
 
onemanasylum said:
People already saying switch will outsell PS4....Let's wait and see what it does after launch month first, come on. Switch doesn't have the big third parties and ps4 will be 199 this holiday. It is not happening.
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Nintendo has never had the big 3rd parties but they have still managed to have big holiday sales. It's obviously impossible to make any predictions that far out based on a months sales. I do think it's possible that the switch could sell the most this November and December. It's going to be a massive holiday period for all 3 I think.
 
AdventureRacing said:
Nintendo has never had the big 3rd parties but they have still managed to have big holiday sales. It's obviously impossible to make any predictions that far out based on a months sales. I do think it's possible that the switch could sell the most this November and December. It's going to be a massive holiday period for all 3 I think.
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No doubt! Switch's first holiday with Mario and potentially other big exclusives, Scorpio - which I think will add anywhere between 400 and 900k between November and December, and PS4's third party marketing/bundle COD/BF2/RDR2/Destiny 2 quadrumvirate.
 
Horizon would not include PSN number in the ranking list as a Sony first party game
 
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