CrapSandwich
former Navy SEAL
The modelers never had any idea of what they were doing, so an obvious response would be to disregard them going forward.But the CDC aggregates and showcases 26 pedigreed models predicting the near-term course of the disease. On January 18, only two of the 26 showed the dramatic case decline the country experienced by February 1 as being within what’s called the 95 percent confidence interval. In other words, 24 of the 26 models said what ended up happening over just the next two weeks was, more or less, statistically impossible. The other two gave it, at best, a sliver of a chance.
Also there's little to no mention in this article that we are simply paying for our sins in the West--primarily that staying indoors and eating Cheetos all day is going to create health consequences in a situation such as this. Much as insulin resistance has been the primary driver of most of our chronic disease and related deaths for decades now, it's also reared its head and created catastrophic consequences during covid. Couple that with a population that's largely defiicient in vitamin D and this is what we get. These messages will get lost and there is no bright upside coming out of this pandemic. People were largely happy enough to do nothing and wait for the pharmaceutical solution.