Mask Efficacy |OT| Wuhan!! Got You All In Check

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ManaByte said:
These lockdowns continue into the summer and you'll see a lot more of that.
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Agreed. This is one of the reasons philosopher Esther O'Reilly wrote the article "Economic Costs Are Human Costs."

"A "bad economy" doesn't just mean flashing red lights on a computer screen in Wall Street offices. It means chaos for the single mom scotch-taping together waitressing and house-cleaning jobs. It means ruin for the small-business owner who built something from nothing and now has to snip the lifeline for his employees personally. It means uncertainty for the food vendor with a wife and kids and a father depending on him. You can see these human faces and more in this short documentary of New York on the cusp of the shutdown. This is to say nothing of how the shutdown will affect those who are mentally ill, clinically depressed, addicted, or trapped in abusive family situations — all issues which are typically compounded by poverty. How will an economic crash coupled with severe isolation affect these people financially, mentally, spiritually? How will it affect the relationships between care-givers and people who need care? Between pastors and fragile congregants?" (3/25/20)
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For those that are interested, the rate of growth in the USA has dropped below 10% for two days straight. The 5 day average is about 12%. This is roughly a third of the growth rate that we saw about a month ago. A month ago we saw a doubling rate of 2-3 days. Today we are looking at a doubling rate of 7-8 days.

This is really great news. It is real signs of this virus eventually plateauing in the US.

I can post graphs later if anyone is interested.
 
Sejan said:
For those that are interested, the rate of growth in the USA has dropped below 10% for two days straight. The 5 day average is about 12%. This is roughly a third of the growth rate that we saw about a month ago. A month ago we saw a doubling rate of 2-3 days. Today we are looking at a doubling rate of 7-8 days.

This is really great news. It is real signs of this virus eventually plateauing in the US.

I can post graphs later if anyone is interested.
Click to expand...

Interested. ^_^
 
Sejan said:
For those that are interested, the rate of growth in the USA has dropped below 10% for two days straight. The 5 day average is about 12%. This is roughly a third of the growth rate that we saw about a month ago. A month ago we saw a doubling rate of 2-3 days. Today we are looking at a doubling rate of 7-8 days.

This is really great news. It is real signs of this virus eventually plateauing in the US.

I can post graphs later if anyone is interested.
Click to expand...

SHHH people don't want to hear that. They want more death counts.
 
Sejan said:
For those that are interested, the rate of growth in the USA has dropped below 10% for two days straight. The 5 day average is about 12%. This is roughly a third of the growth rate that we saw about a month ago. A month ago we saw a doubling rate of 2-3 days. Today we are looking at a doubling rate of 7-8 days.

This is really great news. It is real signs of this virus eventually plateauing in the US.

I can post graphs later if anyone is interested.
Click to expand...

Please do, you're doing GREAT work.
 
DeepEnigma said:
Please do, you're doing GREAT work.
Click to expand...

Total US numbers for the past 64 days

vWIWCIp.png


This graph is simply the total daily numbers. The curve is a bit scary at first, but at the tail end of the curve you can see that it is beginning to be less sharp


Logarithmic Representation of These Numbers

whL1UKj.png


This graph is a logarithmic representation of these same numbers. In this sort of graph, a straight line represents exponential growth. The red line shows how steady that exponential growth was for about a month. At this point in the data, the growth was about 30-40% daily. The amount that we have fallen off that line shows a great trend.


Daily Percent Growth

4kHlG2a.png


This final graph maps the daily percent growth over the past 40 days. I cut the first 24 days off this data because the very low numbers made the data wildly erratic. In this graph you can see a clear trend downwards. The red line is a 5 day rolling average of the data to smooth it out to give a clearer view of what we are facing. The growth of this virus has clearly trended downwards rather consistently outside of the spike at day 24.


Overall, I believe that this data shows the efficacy of the measures that we have taken. While we are not out of the woods yet, it is clear that we are headed in the right direction. We need to persist with what we are doing right and we will see real results sooner than we might expect.
 
Dr.Guru of Peru said:
It actually doesn't. That's just how long it takes to absorb into the bloodstream. It then has to reach the cells to start working, and you likely wouldn't notice a dramatic effect for at least a few doses.. Improvement in a mattor of hours is almost certainly placebo.
Click to expand...

It depends on how it works. If it works as an ionophore to move zinc into cells and the zinc is binding some part of the replication machinery the of the virus, then it is a pretty quick kill. I could see it being as fast as finasteride, which quickly binds and deactivates its target reductase (the actual impact for BPH takes longer, of course, as does letting new hair grow back).

And the placebo effect isn't going to improve people who are in critical care, so it would not apply to those cases. Psychosomatic healing isn't going to fix lung damage.
 
Sejan said:
Total US numbers for the past 64 days

vWIWCIp.png


This graph is simply the total daily numbers. The curve is a bit scary at first, but at the tail end of the curve you can see that it is beginning to be less sharp


Logarithmic Representation of These Numbers

whL1UKj.png


This graph is a logarithmic representation of these same numbers. In this sort of graph, a straight line represents exponential growth. The red line shows how steady that exponential growth was for about a month. At this point in the data, the growth was about 30-40% daily. The amount that we have fallen off that line shows a great trend.


Daily Percent Growth

4kHlG2a.png


This final graph maps the daily percent growth over the past 40 days. I cut the first 24 days off this data because the very low numbers made the data wildly erratic. In this graph you can see a clear trend downwards. The red line is a 5 day rolling average of the data to smooth it out to give a clearer view of what we are facing. The growth of this virus has clearly trended downwards rather consistently outside of the spike at day 24.


Overall, I believe that this data shows the efficacy of the measures that we have taken. While we are not out of the woods yet, it is clear that we are headed in the right direction. We need to persist with what we are doing right and we will see real results sooner than we might expect.
Click to expand...

The sooner the better. I'm still worried about the "right-tail" cases with suspectible demographics, though. Even as the spread slows as immunity builds up and as hospitals are not stressed, it seems like older Americans will still be in a lot of danger.
 
infinitys_7th said:
The sooner the better. I'm still worried about the "right-tail" cases with suspectible demographics, though. Even as the spread slows as immunity builds up and as hospitals are not stressed, it seems like older Americans will still be in a lot of danger.
Click to expand...

Absolutely. We have gotten growth down to 8-9%, and that is great. However we still need to keep in mind that we are still talking about ~30,000 people. Of those 30,000 at least 300-600 won't survive the ordeal-maybe more. We cannot forget that the reason we are taking these steps is to save lives. If I get this virus, I'll most likely survive, but if I give it to my grandmother, there is a very real chance that she won't. This is absolutely serious.
 
llien said:
Oh, wow, missed this one:



On 8th of March Spain was at 646 known infected.
www.worldometers.info

Spain COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

Spain Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.
www.worldometers.info www.worldometers.info
Click to expand...

Yep, our socialist, feminist government (and basically all of Spain's mainstream media) are a bunch of imbeciles (and/or psychopaths) Back in January, anyone who dared say we should close our borders to China got labeled a fascist, xenophobe, racist. Then, days and even weeks before the 8th of March Women's Day demonstrations, when we started having confirmed deaths due to coronavirus, many people warned them about the dangers of not cancelling the marches. Of course all of them got called sexists, fascists, woman haters, etc.

Many people "joked" about how they would only start publicly talking about the real danger of coronavirus the day after the feminist demonstrations, which is exactly what happened. Mainstream media and the government were all pushing the "it's just a flu" narrative right until March 9th, when they suddenly changed and started sounding the alarm. Before, all of them (the government and the MSM) were actively promoting the feminist march, telling people to attend, while downplaying (or even laughing at) the danger of the virus.

Now, the government and the media are pushing a new narrative, which is that "nodody could have known" which is fucking bullshit of course. The official website they were using to tally the number of cases, conveniently stopped counting any new cases the weekend of the Women's Day demonstrations. One of the organizers was filmed shouting "No kisses!!!" to the attendees right at the head of the march, where the government representatives were (almost all of them ended up being infected anyway) A high ranking member of the police was dismissed for "being an alarmist", for warning about coronavirus since January. The government also repeatedly ignored the advice of the WHO to get extra medical supplies in preparation for the virus. I could keep going with more examples of the negligence of our government (not to mention the disgusting complicity of the media) but it would take me several days.

Those bastards put their bullshit ideology over the health and lives of their own people. The whole government (and some members of the media) should end in jail IMO.
 
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If you look at the charts there is something very interesting in Europe.

Basically almost everyone outside of 2 or 3 countries that saw their case peak on March 24th, and then basically plateaued and now they are all declining.

It looks like the virus spread through Europe at basically the same time.
 
cryptoadam said:
If you look at the charts there is something very interesting in Europe.

Basically almost everyone outside of 2 or 3 countries that saw their case peak on March 24th, and then basically plateaued and now they are all declining.

It looks like the virus spread through Europe at basically the same time.
Click to expand...

Well it had a Silk Road to get there.
 
Sejan said:
For those that are interested, the rate of growth in the USA has dropped below 10% for two days straight. The 5 day average is about 12%. This is roughly a third of the growth rate that we saw about a month ago. A month ago we saw a doubling rate of 2-3 days. Today we are looking at a doubling rate of 7-8 days.

This is really great news. It is real signs of this virus eventually plateauing in the US.

I can post graphs later if anyone is interested.
Click to expand...
Is this counting rural areas?
 
infinitys_7th said:
It depends on how it works. If it works as an ionophore to move zinc into cells and the zinc is binding some part of the replication machinery the of the virus, then it is a pretty quick kill. I could see it being as fast as finasteride, which quickly binds and deactivates its target reductase (the actual impact for BPH takes longer, of course, as does letting new hair grow back).

And the placebo effect isn't going to improve people who are in critical care, so it would not apply to those cases. Psychosomatic healing isn't going to fix lung damage.
Click to expand...
Uh, that's not how it works. The medicine isn't even in the blood stream until 2 hours. Assuming that one dose is sufficient to disrupt viral replication within seconds of it entering your blood stream, you still have to deal with the effects of the inflammation the body has undergone in an attempt to fight the virus: the stuff that makes you actually feel sick. That will take days. Get real man, in no way is her story "possible".

We're not talking about someone in critical care, we're talking about someone posting on Twitter that felt better before her body even absorbed the pill she took. Like I said; I'm not discounting HCQ, I'm just saying don't believe the stories of people posting about miracles.
 
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RSB said:
Yep, our socialist, feminist government (and basically all of Spain's mainstream media) are a bunch of imbeciles (and/or psychopaths) Back in January, anyone who dared say we should close our borders to China got labeled a fascist, xenophobe, racist. Then, days and even weeks before the 8th of March Women's Day demonstrations, when we started having confirmed deaths due to coronavirus, many people warned them about the dangers of not cancelling the marches. Of course all of them got called sexists, fascists, woman haters, etc.

Many people "joked" about how they would only start publicly talking about the real danger of coronavirus the day after the feminist demonstrations, which is exactly what happened. Mainstream media and the government were all pushing the "it's just a flu" narrative right until March 9th, when they suddenly changed and started sounding the alarm. Before, all of them (the government and the MSM) were actively promoting the feminist march, telling people to attend, while downplaying (or even laughing at) the danger of the virus.

Now, the government and the media are pushing a new narrative, which is that "nodody could have known" which is fucking bullshit of course. The official website they were using to tally the number of cases, conveniently stopped counting any new cases the weekend of the Women's Day demonstrations. One of the organizers was filmed shouting "No kisses!!!" to the attendees right at the head of the march, where the government representatives were (almost all of them ended up being infected anyway) A high ranking member of the police was dismissed for "being an alarmist", for warning about coronavirus since January. The government also repeatedly ignored the advice of the WHO to get extra medical supplies in preparation for the virus. I could keep going with more examples of the negligence of our government (not to mention the disgusting complicity of the media) but it would take me several days.

Those bastards put their bullshit ideology over the health and lives of their own people. The whole government (and some members of the media) should end in jail IMO.
Click to expand...
Let them do their feminist event Raise 4 walls around them and let them quarantined together. I bet it would do some good for humanity. lol
 
SLoWMoTIoN said:
Is this counting rural areas?
Click to expand...

This is counting the entirety of the US. The virus is spreading at different rates in different places depending on a number of variables. For instance, it appears that New York has slowed significantly, but Louisiana is still growing pretty quickly.

I like this website for looking up specific states and counties throughout the US.

Global COVID-19 Tracker & Interactive Charts | Real Time Updates & Digestable Information for Everyone | 1Point3Acres

coronavirus.1point3acres.com coronavirus.1point3acres.com
 
Dr.Guru of Peru said:
Uh, that's not how it works. The medicine isn't even in the blood stream until 2 hours. Assuming that one dose is sufficient to disrupt viral replication within seconds of it entering your blood stream, you still have to deal with the effects of the inflammation the body has undergone in an attempt to fight the virus: the stuff that makes you actually feel sick. That will take days. Get real man, in no way is her story "possible".

We're not talking about someone in critical care, we're talking about someone posting on Twitter that felt better before her body even absorbed the pill she took. Like I said; I'm not discounting HCQ, I'm just saying don't believe the stories of people posting about miracles.
Click to expand...

Without knowing mechanism of action or other things, it's difficult to draw any conclusions.

Here is what we do know (or can assume):
  • 2-4 hours is likely for the drug to reach maximum concentration (Cmax)
  • 2-4 hours is not a binary (ie. drug isn't in your blood or other compartment of your choice at 1hr 59min 59.9999999sec, then is suddenly in your compartment at 2hr)
  • Cmax is (likely) higher than minimum effective concentration (MEC)
    • In some instances you need to take repeat doses to get to a therapeutic range safely
  • MEC is only known for malaria, lupus, and rheumatoid arthritis
  • Chloroquine has anti-inflammatory properties
  • If the MEC is low for COVID-19, it is possible that before reaching 2-4 hours, you will start seeing therapeutic effects
  • If the MEC is high for COVID-19, then it is possible that you will be seeing placebo effect
Whether you believe there is an effect or not is at this point a guess whether you believe the MEC to be low or high.
 
RSB said:
Those bastards put their bullshit ideology over the health and lives of their own people. The whole government (and some members of the media) should end in jail IMO.
Click to expand...
Governments do shit left and right. I think the most important question here is: will they have to pay for it? (politically, of course)
 
gamerMan said:
New York's new hospitalizations seem to be slowing down too, which is a very good sign.

x9Ph43W.jpg
Click to expand...
The above numbers are a lot different from these, which still show ~2K cases per day:

covidtracking.com

New York

Cases, testing, hospitalization, outcomes, long-term-care, and race and ethnicity data for New York, plus data sources, notes, and grade.
covidtracking.com covidtracking.com

I would what the cause of the discrepancy is. Is your chart only showing the cases for NYC?
 
Fuck China. I swear, if this isn't a goddamn wake up call to the world, I don't know what is.

I hope Boris pulls through, and they are just being overly cautious.

Has anyone heard more regarding Rand Paul?
 


hariseldon said:


What the fuck is wrong with people?
Click to expand...

Surely, all these human beings are also experts in "online hate" subject, as well as likely are The Survivors of such hate.

That being said, I caught myself thinking that BoJo getting bad could have positive impact on the world, acting as a wake up call to all those still thinking "just a flue", "only kills grandpas". I wish him well though.
 
Sejan said:
This is counting the entirety of the US. The virus is spreading at different rates in different places depending on a number of variables. For instance, it appears that New York has slowed significantly, but Louisiana is still growing pretty quickly.

I like this website for looking up specific states and counties throughout the US.

Global COVID-19 Tracker & Interactive Charts | Real Time Updates & Digestable Information for Everyone | 1Point3Acres

coronavirus.1point3acres.com coronavirus.1point3acres.com
Click to expand...
Yeah, I'm afraid states with less big cities will get hit next more than anything.
 
Sejan said:
For those that are interested, the rate of growth in the USA has dropped below 10% for two days straight. The 5 day average is about 12%. This is roughly a third of the growth rate that we saw about a month ago. A month ago we saw a doubling rate of 2-3 days. Today we are looking at a doubling rate of 7-8 days.

This is really great news. It is real signs of this virus eventually plateauing in the US.

I can post graphs later if anyone is interested.
Click to expand...
Doubling rates slow down because of limitations of testing. Exact same thing happened in China, in Italy and Spain. Restrictions should lead to 12 to 14 % of new increases after the first week and 6 to 7 % after the second week. If you opt for a complete lockdown like Wuhan, Italy and Spain, you can go down to less than 4 % of new infections after a week and then to 0 over a couple of weeks. You will find that while the percentage of new infections goes down, the percentage of positive tests/all tests goes up. Because testing is the limiting factor. It went from 10 % positive tests all the way to 25 % in Lombardy while doubling rates went down. The only meaningful metric is absolute daily new infections. That number tells you how many more infections you can expect. And that number in the US seems to be around 35k per day right now. Which is around 5 times higher than it has been at the peak of any other country. And the US hasn't peaked yet.
 
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hariseldon said:


What the fuck is wrong with people?
Click to expand...

I suppose it's the reaction you get when your "strategy" is to let 100.000 of your citizens die (herd immunity):

www.mirror.co.uk

Coronavirus 'could kill 100,000 Brits' as ministers prepare for huge death toll

But the Chancellor has promised to take "targeted" measures to help businesses as he gears up for his first budget in the role. The financial plan is likely to focus on protecting the economy in the face of the virus
www.mirror.co.uk www.mirror.co.uk
 
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