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[jarrod]

At least in terms of Japan, the Wii is going to be looked at as a tragic tale by future generations. So much potential essentially buried because third parties decided not to try. It's basically turning into the same situation the GC and N64 were in: first party blockbusters surrounded by half-hearted or niche third party efforts with an occasional big third party game. Sales are being affected severely by this, and they are only going to keep sliding.

Eh, it's still getting the two biggest upcoming 3rd party games as exclusives (post DQIX). And there's at least games releasing every week, it's not near as bad as N64 and (to a lesser extent) GC were.

Really, I think Nintendo's 1st party absence is what hurt the last half of 2008 most. Contracted games and GC reissues aren't enough, where's EAD been exactly?

 

[schuelma]

Really, I think Nintendo's 1st party absence is what hurt the last half of 2008 most. Contracted games and GC reissues aren't enough, where's EAD been exactly?

I think Nintendo counted on Wii Music/Animal Crossing to do what Wii Fit did last year. Oops.

 

[HK-47]

KSSU dropping fast. I had hoped for 1.5 million

Also can Wagamama make it the a million?

 

[Link]

I know you love to do this, but come on man. Sales are probably going to be down for the first part of the year, but Nintendo has many cards to play and 3rd party support, contrary to your doom and gloom posts is going to be significantly better in 2009. Significantly. Monster Hunter 3, Tales of Ten, Samurai Warriors 3, Crystal Bearers (not confirmed but I imagine it's this year if a new trailer is coming out)...that's already a significantly better lineup than 2008, and we're barely into the new year.

I'd also add that Wii Sports Resort/Motion + could be very big, and at the very least I expect it to have much more of a impact than Wii Music/Animal Crossing.


Edit- I'd add that sales are down in this period for PSP and PS3 as well.

That's all well and good, but it's pretty much exactly what I was saying. Heck, we could name just as many third party games coming to the PS3/360 that are at least as big as any of the titles you listed, and no one is expecting those platforms to suddenly have better sales for anything more than the short-term. There's just not enough consistency in releases on the Wii to maintain great sales. It's going to keep falling further and further behind the PS2. Quite frankly, I doubt it will ever even catch the PSP.

For whatever reason, Japanese third parties have decided it's worth losing sales potential in Japan to develop for the PS3/360 because they can make up for it with western sales. The irony there, of course, is that the Wii does better than either of them in the west as well. It also seems developers would lately rather just focus on the PSP for their "PS2-level" games and just ignore the Wii. I still can't figure out the logic to that one, but so it goes.

 

[frankie_baby]

That's all well and good, but it's pretty much exactly what I was saying. Heck, we could name just as many third party games coming to the PS3/360 that are at least as big as any of the titles you listed, and no one is expecting those platforms to suddenly have better sales for anything more than the short-term. There's just not enough consistency in releases on the Wii to maintain great sales. It's going to keep falling further and further behind the PS2. Quite frankly, I doubt it will ever even catch the PSP.

For whatever reason, Japanese third parties have decided it's worth losing sales potential in Japan to develop for the PS3/360 because they can make up for it with western sales. The irony there, of course, is that the Wii does better than either of them in the west as well. It also seems developers would lately rather just focus on the PSP for their "PS2-level" games and just ignore the Wii. I still can't figure out the logic to that one, but so it goes.

I'm sorry but it seems to me the wii has a far better upcoming line up than the psp

 

[schuelma]

That's all well and good, but it's pretty much exactly what I was saying. Heck, we could name just as many third party games coming to the PS3/360 that are at least as big as any of the titles you listed, and no one is expecting those platforms to suddenly have better sales for anything more than the short-term. There's just not enough consistency in releases on the Wii to maintain great sales. It's going to keep falling further and further behind the PS2. Quite frankly, I doubt it will ever even catch the PSP.

For whatever reason, Japanese third parties have decided it's worth losing sales potential in Japan to develop for the PS3/360 because they can make up for it with western sales. The irony there, of course, is that the Wii does better than either of them in the west as well. It also seems developers would lately rather just focus on the PSP for their "PS2-level" games and just ignore the Wii. I still can't figure out the logic to that one, but so it goes.

1- The 2009 lineup is a lot better than 08 or 07. That's a fact.

2- You note that the lineup is comparable to PS360..ok, but that market has been cultivated from the start by 3rd parties. I respectfully submit that Wii has a lot more to gain from getting say Monster Hunter 3 than PS3 has by getting Final Fantasy. The people waiting for FF I'd argue have been buying the system since it came out. The potential Monster Hunter crowd? I don't think they've much considered the Wii up until now.

 

[Link]

1- The 2009 lineup is a lot better than 08 or 07. That's a fact.

In terms of big third party releases, yes. However, you need stuff to fill in the gaps between the tentpoles. I don't see enough being there to keep sales consistently up.

2- You note that the lineup is comparable to PS360..ok, but that market has been cultivated from the start by 3rd parties. I respectfully submit that Wii has a lot more to gain from getting say Monster Hunter 3 than PS3 has by getting Final Fantasy. The people waiting for FF I'd argue have been buying the system since it came out. The potential Monster Hunter crowd? I don't think they've much considered the Wii up until now.

Neither of us can prove this one way or the other, especially since neither console has received a game related to the series each is waiting for. I suppose we'll get an idea of things when MH3 releases.

 

[donny2112]

where's EAD been exactly?

And there leads the idea that Nintendo has held back some of its core titles to support Wii Motion+ becoming the standard Wiimote. I don't know if you were reading the MC threads during the last six months of 2008, but I've been sort of pushing forward the idea that Nintendo could be wanting Motion+ to be the new standard and has therefore held back some bigger core titles to support that movement. It's more of a "theory that happens to fit the facts" than a provable scenario, at this point, though. Whenever Nintendo has a meeting about the launch of Motion+ (e.g. the end of January quarterly retailer conference), we should know more.

 

[ksamedi]

Not a whole lot of big games have been announced for the PS3 or 360 in 2008. A lot more announcements have been made for the Wii. Thats a sign that Japanese (home console) development is shifting towards the Wii. I'd argue that even Square Enix will make that shift ones they finish up their HD project.

 

[birdchili]

And there leads the idea that Nintendo has held back some of its core titles to support Wii Motion+ becoming the standard Wiimote.

that'd be a pretty-challenging thing to pull off. do you support both old and new controllers? the remote has been pretty weak on the motion-recognition front, so it's hard to think of many games that would be easily compelling supporting two controller options.

they *really* need wii sports resort to be a massive hit then. and they'd probably do well with some sort of follow-up to wii play.

i don't suppose it's impossible, of course. has any other console (succesfully) manufacturer managed a massive shift like that mid-generation?

 

[d+pad]

Another thing to think about in this Wii-vs-everyone-else discussion: Nintendo must not be too concerned with their decreased performance (at the start of this year vs. the start of last year and in all of 2008 vs. 2007) considering they have yet to offer up a bundle or a new color.

I have to imagine if numbers don't pick up soon - or if a good first-party or even third-party piece of software isn't released soon - that's just what we'll see. IMO, that's all that would be needed for sales to pick up for some time.

And if that doesn't work, they could drop the price, but I really don't see that happening for some time.

I think, like others here, Nintendo just thought AC and especially Wii Music would carry the system through to Wii Sports Resort, with the "Play on Wii" releases playing supporting roles.

Anyway, it'll be interesting to see what comes out at the end of the quarter...

 

[Link]

I'd argue that even Square Enix will make that shift ones they finish up their HD project.

By the time they finish up the FFXIII saga, the generation will be over.

 

[Cosmonaut X]

i don't suppose it's impossible, of course. has any other console (succesfully) manufacturer managed a massive shift like that mid-generation?

Arguably, Sony with the PS1 Dual Shock.

 

[Spiegel]

It also seems developers would lately rather just focus on the PSP for their "PS2-level" games and just ignore the Wii. I still can't figure out the logic to that one, but so it goes.

Let's see the latter half of 2008

Wii had
Resident Evil 0 (port)
Jikkyou Powerful Pro Yakyuu 15
One Piece Unlimited Cruise: Episode 1
Soul Eater: Monotone Princess
Jikkyou Power Pro Major League
Sky Crawlers: Innocent Aces
Tenchu 4
Harvest Moon: Exciting Animal March
Family Ski & Snowboard
Rune Factory Frontier
Naruto: Shippuuden Gekitou Ninja Taisen! EX
428: Fuusa Sareta Shibuya de
Tatsunoko vs. Capcom: Cross Generation of Heroes
Taiko no Tatsujin Wii
Karaoke Joysound Wii

Sky Crawlers, Tenchu 4, Tatsunoko, Naruto Shippuden, Jikkyou Power Pro/PowerFul Pro, Soul Eater, Harvest Moon, Rune Factory, Family Ski sold like shit/underperformed
428, One Piece, Resident Evil 0 sold ok/good
Taiko and karaoke sold great



PSP had
Gundam Battle Universe
Phantasy Star Portable (port)
Fate/Tiger Colosseum Upper
Katekyoo Hitman Reborn! Battle Arena
Way of the Samurai Portable (port)
Mana-Khemia: Alchemists of Al-Revis Portable+ (port)
Macross Ace Frontier
Mobile Suit Gundam: Gundam vs. Gundam
Prinny: Can I really be the Hero?
Musou Orochi: Maou Sairin (port)
Yu-Gi-Oh! GX Tag Force 3
Kenka Banchou 3
Dissidia: Final Fantasy

Prinny sold like shit/underperformed
The Gundam games, Fate/Tiger, Hitman, Macross, Musou Orochi, Mana Khemia,... sold ok/good
Dissidia, Phantasy Star, Kenka Banchou, Yugioh, Gundam Vs Gundam sold great

 

[ccbfan]

That's all well and good, but it's pretty much exactly what I was saying. Heck, we could name just as many third party games coming to the PS3/360 that are at least as big as any of the titles you listed, and no one is expecting those platforms to suddenly have better sales for anything more than the short-term. There's just not enough consistency in releases on the Wii to maintain great sales. It's going to keep falling further and further behind the PS2. Quite frankly, I doubt it will ever even catch the PSP.

For whatever reason, Japanese third parties have decided it's worth losing sales potential in Japan to develop for the PS3/360 because they can make up for it with western sales. The irony there, of course, is that the Wii does better than either of them in the west as well. It also seems developers would lately rather just focus on the PSP for their "PS2-level" games and just ignore the Wii. I still can't figure out the logic to that one, but so it goes.

Well considering similar level 3rd party games sell better on the PSP than the Wii. I'm not surprise.

The PSP audience is built now. Multiplayer games and Anime games (especially gundam) are the recipe for success. PSP games of this type are even starting to beat PS2 multi-releases. Just look at Phantasy Star Portable. That was probably the single most derivation from the usual performance of franchise in a positive way. Has a port ever outsold the original by this much?

I mean have wii even beaten the PS2 in a multi-release yet? There is not recipe of success that third parties can use right now for the Wii that wouldn't be a bigger success on the DS or PSP. I mean its not like third parties could use Mario or put "Wii" in their game's title. (For those who doubt Mario's ability to sell games just look and the Mario and Sonic Olympic game. How much do you think Sonic solo would have sold).

Until someone carves that niche for the Wii that third parties could actually take advantage of, third parties will continue to be worried. There's just no system seller for third party type games on the Wii. There's good games but no "WOW, I must get a Wii now so I can play this game" game. There's help on the way in MH3 and Tales 10 (DQ X will be released way too late to help much.) until then I believe 3rd party Wii games will continue to mega bomb making it harder and harder for small to medium developers of games to want to fill in those drought gaps.

Plus for those complaining about PS3 and 360 still getting more games, most of those were announce a long time ago, way before what we already know about this generation.

 

[Link]

Well considering similar level 3rd party games sell better on the PSP than the Wii. I'm not surprise.

I'm not saying to ignore the PSP, but you'd think they'd have the sense to make a Wii version, too. I mean hell, look at all the companies making 360 versions to go along with the PS3 version. Some games even get PS2 versions without there being a Wii version.

It's like they're just being stubborn at this point in an effort to save face.

 

[schuelma]

Let's see the latter half of 2008

Wii had
Resident Evil 0 (port)
Jikkyou Powerful Pro Yakyuu 15
One Piece Unlimited Cruise: Episode 1
Soul Eater: Monotone Princess
Jikkyou Power Pro Major League
Sky Crawlers: Innocent Aces
Tenchu 4
Harvest Moon: Exciting Animal March
Family Ski & Snowboard
Rune Factory Frontier
Naruto: Shippuuden Gekitou Ninja Taisen! EX
428: Fuusa Sareta Shibuya de
Tatsunoko vs. Capcom: Cross Generation of Heroes
Taiko no Tatsujin Wii
Karaoke Joysound Wii

Sky Crawlers, Tenchu 4, Tatsunoko, Naruto Shippuden, Jikkyou Power Pro/PowerFul Pro, Soul Eater, Harvest Moon, Rune Factory, Family Ski sold like shit/underperformed
428, One Piece, Resident Evil 0 sold ok/good
Taiko and karaoke sold great

Let's not go crazy here..Soul Eater as some judge of 3rd party viability? And I don't agree with putting Family Ski there..they had two releases within 1 year of each other and the first one did over a 100K.

 

[Spiegel]

Let's not go crazy here..Soul Eater as some judge of 3rd party viability?

No, Soul Eater is a typical Ps2-level third party anime game that sold like shit

And I don't agree with putting Family Ski there..they had two releases within 1 year of each other and the first one did over a 100K.

See Musou Orochi PSP 1 and 2

But it's ok, you can change Family Ski for Klonoa.

 

[donny2112]

Just because I was curious, collected the data, and figured it probably wouldn't hurt to share, here are the total sales, average sales, and count of games from my database (which includes new releases outside the Top 30 and miscellaneous updates throughout the year) by system in 2008 for games that sold less than 1 million or 500K in all of 2008, and then just the last six months of 2008. Essentially, that's trying to exclude "big" games (e.g. MHP2G, Pokemon, Wii Fit, MGS4) from the list and seeing how the rest stack up. Obviously, it would be closer to reality if we already had the Top 500 for 2008, but here it is anyway. :lol

[b]Games selling < 1 million in the period[/b]

[u]2008[/u]

Sys        Total   Average  Count
---------------------------------
NDS   18,077,822  50,216.2    360
WII    6,410,381  59,355.4    108
PSP    5,697,868  54,265.4    105
PS2    5,338,418  34,002.7    157
PS3    4,469,162  49,111.7     91
360    1,460,984  16,988.2     86

[u]Last 6 Months of 2008[/u]

Sys        Total   Average  Count
---------------------------------
NDS    9,123,680  41,660.6    219
WII    4,599,839  60,524.2     76
PSP    3,686,258  49,814.3     74
PS2    2,591,257  30,130.9     86
PS3    2,237,925  39,261.8     57
360      884,235  20,096.2     44


[b]Games selling < 500K in the period[/b]

[u]2008[/u]

Sys        Total   Average  Count
---------------------------------
NDS   14,186,616  40,075.2    354
PS2    5,338,418  34,002.7    157
PSP    4,403,652  42,753.9    103
WII    4,070,718  38,768.7    105
PS3    3,782,908  42,032.3     90
360    1,460,984  16,988.2     86

[u]Last 6 Months of 2008[/u]

Sys        Total   Average  Count
---------------------------------
NDS    7,090,762  32,827.6    216
WII    2,998,573  40,521.3     74
PS2    2,591,257  30,130.9     86
PSP    2,392,042  33,222.8     72
PS3    2,237,925  39,261.8     57
360      884,235  20,096.2     44

Again, very important, this is only what I have in my database, so it is not 100% complete. Hopefully, others will find this interesting, though.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

or maybe the original game underperformed badly on the dying GC and the numbers of the re-release look better because of that.

It came out a few months earlier than Jungle Beat, though. Then again, Jungle Beat's "Play on Wii" sounds like a control unimprovement, so that couldn't help.

 

[Stumpokapow]

Just because I was curious, collected the data, and figured it probably wouldn't hurt to share, here are the total sales, average sales, and count of games from my database (which includes new releases outside the Top 30 and miscellaneous updates throughout the year) by system in 2008 for games that sold less than 1 million or 500K in all of 2008, and then just the last six months of 2008. Essentially, that's trying to exclude "big" games (e.g. MHP2G, Pokemon, Wii Fit, MGS4) from the list and seeing how the rest stack up. Obviously, it would be closer to reality if we already had the Top 500 for 2008, but here it is anyway. :lol

Very interesting and an excellent choice of something to compare. It's very unfortunate that the full year / six month results are materially different and the 1000k / 500k results are materially different because it's difficult to draw any conclusion that's not tapered with "based on this specific set of circumstances that it's difficult to say represents a broad / general case".

The first two tables read as pretty good for the PSP and Wii since it puts both of them at the top. The second two tables read as good for the PS3 and PSP since it puts them at the top. I don't think you can generalize that by saying "PSP > PS3/Wii > everything else" though, obviously.

It's tough, too, to established what these tables are really "doing". I mean, basically what we're trying to do is avoid the skew caused by "big" games. There are a number of ways we could do this--median sales, mean sales of all games below the nth percentile for the system, mean sales of all games below the nth percentile for the market, or mean sales of all games below <x> point. This is the last of those choices.

I think one of the problems with this particular set of tables is that it unfairly excludes games that are above the <x> point while not excluding big games that are below the <x> point. How do I express this... uh... I guess what I mean is that it doesn't strike me as meaningful to compare the whole PS3 library to the Wii library sans million sellers and say that it's an Apples-to-Apples comparison because it excludes all million sellers. The PS3 doesn't have million sellers, but it does have some games that might have been million sellers had the install base been better.

Likewise, if the Wii was selling PS3 numbers and vice versa, a lot of its million+ sellers would be high six figure sellers and vice versa, so the comparison would hurt the PS3 and help the Wii in that case.

I think I'd still feel more comfortable using a median sales number or a mean sales number below the nth percentile on the system rather than this particular comparison, but it's neat all the same.

And there leads the idea that Nintendo has held back some of its core titles to support Wii Motion+ becoming the standard Wiimote. I don't know if you were reading the MC threads during the last six months of 2008, but I've been sort of pushing forward the idea that Nintendo could be wanting Motion+ to be the new standard and has therefore held back some bigger core titles to support that movement. It's more of a "theory that happens to fit the facts" than a provable scenario, at this point, though. Whenever Nintendo has a meeting about the launch of Motion+ (e.g. the end of January quarterly retailer conference), we should know more.

My worry there is that they've announced literally a dozen Wii games for 2009 and most of them are externally developed. So your options are delay some of those announced titles until 2010, cancel some of them altogether, or squeeze them all in to 8-9 months along with prospective EAD titles which would both be very un-Nintendo and pretty dangerous, in my opinion.

 

[Rolf NB]

If you interpret it under the supposition that competitive pressures would over time redistribute developer efforts between platforms until every game can sell the same (on average of course), this chart would tell us that the Wii is still getting too few games (highest avg unit sales per game), PSP could use some more still, the PS2 gets a bit too many, and the Xbox 360 gets far too many.

 

[jarrod]

And there leads the idea that Nintendo has held back some of its core titles to support Wii Motion+ becoming the standard Wiimote. I don't know if you were reading the MC threads during the last six months of 2008, but I've been sort of pushing forward the idea that Nintendo could be wanting Motion+ to be the new standard and has therefore held back some bigger core titles to support that movement. It's more of a "theory that happens to fit the facts" than a provable scenario, at this point, though. Whenever Nintendo has a meeting about the launch of Motion+ (e.g. the end of January quarterly retailer conference), we should know more.

Yeah, M+ is probably why they've been a virtual no-show since the spring (sorry, the 5th version of Animal Crossing and a warmed over experiment like Wii Music aren't enough). Hopefully we get the floodgates opened once Wii Sports 2 hits.

By the time they finish up the FFXIII saga, the generation will be over.

I doubt they're waiting, I think gears have been switching already. The DQX announcement was pretty telling imo, as is the continual no-show of heavily rumored HD projects (Front Mission VI, Grandia 4, Kingdom Hearts 3, etc). I'm starting to think the big HD projects we already know about (TLR PS3, FFXIII stuff, Requiem) might be all we get.

Just look at Phantasy Star Portable. That was probably the single most derivation from the usual performance of franchise in a positive way. Has a port ever outsold the original by this much?

Off the top of my head, Tales of Phantasia PS1, Animal Crossing DS and Monster Hunter 1/2 PSP all did just as good or better. There's probably more games in a similar position actually.

Let's not go crazy here..Soul Eater as some judge of 3rd party viability? And I don't agree with putting Family Ski there..they had two releases within 1 year of each other and the first one did over a 100K.

FamiS&S came too soon imo. Namco should've pushed it to 2009, the first was decent success and a nice turnaround from the RR team's previous failures. Still, FamiS&S may crawl to 100k+ under the radar too, I agree it's too soon to label some of the Wii bombs as such.

Konami needs to integrate motion controls into Powapuro Wii. It's never gonna get any traction against PS2 release so long as it's the same exact game.

 

[Cosmonaut X]

My worry there is that they've announced literally a dozen Wii games for 2009 and most of them are externally developed. So your options are delay some of those announced titles until 2010, cancel some of them altogether, or squeeze them all in to 8-9 months along with prospective EAD titles which would both be very un-Nintendo and pretty dangerous, in my opinion.

At this stage though, is there more risk in pushing out games so close together or in holding back and having a similar release pattern to 2008? The Play on Wii titles are obviously going to be decent filler material - in terms of quality and sales - but a steady stream of fresh titles from Nintendo, their partners and third parties seems to be what is required over the next year or so.

 

[jarrod]

At this stage though, is there more risk in pushing out games so close together or in holding back and having a similar release pattern to 2008? The Play on Wii titles are obviously going to be decent filler material - in terms of quality and sales - but a steady stream of fresh titles from Nintendo, their partners and third parties seems to be what is required over the next year or so.

NCL's committed to one "Play on Wii" game a month evidently! :lol

Looking at the schedule though, it's pretty full already with filler content quality wise imo. The problem is sales though, and no one has so far done what it takes to really build Wii markets like they have on PS360. Even with multiformat games... contrast how Konami handled WE on PS360 vs PS2 and Puwapuro on Wii vs PS2. Nevermind how WE Wii has been handled. Or Koei's obvious attempts to shift the Musou base to HD. That's changing in the coming year finally with some companies (Capcom, Square Enix, Koei, etc) but it's not soon enough. :/

 

[donny2112]

I think I'd still feel more comfortable using a median sales number or a mean sales number below the nth percentile on the system rather than this particular comparison, but it's neat all the same.

Off the top of my head, I'm not sure how I'd go about excluding the top n% of each system's listing without manually doing it with staging tables and putting in the cutoff number per system from an external calculation. I'll give it some thought. Thanks for the suggestion!

My worry there is that they've announced literally a dozen Wii games for 2009 and most of them are externally developed. So your options are delay some of those announced titles until 2010, cancel some of them altogether, or squeeze them all in to 8-9 months along with prospective EAD titles which would both be very un-Nintendo and pretty dangerous, in my opinion.

I'm hopeful that Nintendo will "pull back the curtain" on what they've presumably been holding back for the Motion+ push, but I don't expect everything shown to come out in 2009. The most likely scenario is that the next Zelda will come out in 2009, though, since Twilight Princess was essentially completed three years ago, now.

 

[Stumpokapow]

At this stage though, is there more risk in pushing out games so close together or in holding back and having a similar release pattern to 2008? The Play on Wii titles are obviously going to be decent filler material - in terms of quality and sales - but a steady stream of fresh titles from Nintendo, their partners and third parties seems to be what is required over the next year or so.

Let me try to elaborate. Nintendo is terrible at counterprogramming. They do not know how to release two products at the same time that hit different audiences. They do not know how to plan their product launches to counterbalance competitors projects. This is as true in North America as it is in Japan. If Nintendo wants to launch (totally made up numbers here) 18 titles in 9 months, you'll see a month with no games, a month with four games, and no rhyme nor reason about how the games are selected to co-exist with each other.

In development, they have the following for the Wii:
- 100 Conversations! English Coversations
- Cosmic Walker
- Dynamic Slash
- Endless Ocean 2
- Kensax
- Kirby :lol
- Line Attack Heroes
- NHK Trivia
- Punch-Out
- Sin and Punishment 2
- Spawn Smasher
- Wand of Magic (I'm told "Takt" means "wand" in Japanese, so I don't have a damn clue why people are romanizing this game as "Takt of Magic" which smacks of weaboo gibberish engrish to me)
- Wii Sports Resort

As far as we are aware, every single one of these games other than Wii Sports Resort and Kirby is externally developed. We know for sure about Wand of Magic, Spawn Smasher, Sin and Punishment 2, Punch Out, Line Attack Heroes, Endless Ocean 2, Dynamic Slash, and Cosmic Walker. Maybe some of the others are internally developed, who knows.

I'm purposefully excluding garbage like "NEXT PIKMINS" or "NEXT ZERUDA!!!!" because the reality is that these games have only been announced conceptually, and not actually revealed as games.

We also know that they've got the following lined up for GCN->Wii ports:
- Metroid Prime 2
- Pikmin 2

So you've got 15 titles and their release list up until March is already done (that's why you don't see Trace Memory and Metroid Prime 1 listed above). That's a pretty packed schedule for 9 months, and it gets even more packed when you take into account the fact that there are EAD titles in the works and it's virtually guaranteed there will be more Gamecube ports that the ones listed above and already released.

As for your original question of whether or not it's better to crowd the market or release nothing at all, that depends. If you release nothing at all because you've got nothing to release, that's a worst case scenario (seems to be what Nintendo was doing last Christmas). But I don't think Nintendo should launch 15 Wii games + any EAD stuff for maybe a total of 20 games in 9 months if they're not going to learn how to effectively counterprogram. That strikes me as foolhardy. It seems to me that you'd be better off canceling a few of the duds in that long list or delaying them to 2010 and raising their profile.

Off the top of my head, I'm not sure how I'd go about excluding the top n% of each system's listing without manually doing it with staging tables and putting in the cutoff number per system from an external calculation. I'll give it some thought. Thanks for the suggestion!

Cheap and easy way is two queries to a database:
- SELECT COUNT(1), record count of games
- ORDER BY LifetimeSales DESC LIMIT n, 1000000 where n is the previously recorded count divided to get the top n%

If you've just got a spreadsheet, same goes. Count the rows, sort by lifetime, and select everything below a certain row.

I'm hopeful that Nintendo will "pull back the curtain" on what they've presumably been holding back for the Motion+ push, but I don't expect everything shown to come out in 2009. The most likely scenario is that the next Zelda will come out in 2009, though, since Twilight Princess was essentially completed three years ago, now.

Sure, I'll buy that for the sake of further discussion and because it's not implausible. So, as Nintendo and reflecting the fact that Nintendo has not demonstrating any willingness or ability to counterprogram, what do you do with the 15 titles you've already got slated for 2009 assuming you announce Zelda, and say... uh... 2 other EAD titles of reasonable hitting power?

 

[jarrod]

I'm hopeful that Nintendo will "pull back the curtain" on what they've presumably been holding back for the Motion+ push, but I don't expect everything shown to come out in 2009. The most likely scenario is that the next Zelda will come out in 2009, though, since Twilight Princess was essentially completed three years ago, now.

Zelda seems like a safe bet, and likely Pikmin 3, but outside that I've no clue what might be up? I'd love a return to EAD's "lesser" IPs (Star Fox, F-Zero, Ice Climbers, Pilotwings, Mole Mania, 1080, Wave Race, etc) but I seriously can't see any of them happening (for various reasons)... I sort of wonder if the Wii de Asobu line is eating up more rescources than we know? :/

I'm sure Rhythm Tengoku Wii has to be on SPD's minds though, especially after it's continued DS sales. Band Bros Wii might be nice for EAD, and make up critically with the hardcore for Wii Music, but there seems to be heavy licensing issues with worldwide releases thanks to the way it does content creation.

HAL has Kirby Adventure hopefully. IntSys has that rumored Wario Ware Balance Board title. Not sure of anything else? Mystery Retro game? NST's Project HAMMER lives? Brownie Brown RPG?

Matsuno+NdCube mega-SRPG? :lol

 

[Pureauthor]

I just want to point out that the word is 'foolhardy'.

 

[Stumpokapow]

I just want to point out that the word is 'foolhardy'.

Yikes, that's a killer slip on my part. Ouch.

 

[Cosmonaut X]

Snip

Very good points. There was a time when it seemed NoJ were pretty adept at positioning their DS releases and colours against the PSP, but I take your point about the rather scattergun approach NoJ and NoA have at the moment (NoE has to my mind been rather better at managing consistent releases recently, although they obviously have their own issues...)

(BTW - I'd add Chibi-Robo to your list of ports, as that was on the last list I saw for PoW releases...)

 

[donny2112]

Cheap and easy way is two queries to a database:
- SELECT COUNT(1), record count of games
- ORDER BY LifetimeSales DESC LIMIT n, 1000000 where n is the previously recorded count divided to get the top n%

If you've just got a spreadsheet, same goes. Count the rows, sort by lifetime, and select everything below a certain row.

That's essentially the manual way (though I don't think the databases I have access to have the LIMIT option on an ORDER BY), which I usually try to avoid. I may end up writing a program to do the multiple steps. Hmm.

So, as Nintendo and reflecting the fact that Nintendo has not demonstrating any willingness or ability to counterprogram, what do you do with the 15 titles you've already got slated for 2009 assuming you announce Zelda, and say... uh... 2 other EAD titles of reasonable hitting power?

Delay whichever ones don't make the quality cut by internally set deadlines, which, from our perspective, would be a randomly picked group of games to delay.

 

[jarrod]

Rounding out and clarifying stump's list...

Internal/Partners
- Kirby = HAL Laboratory
- Wii Sports Resort = Nintendo EAD

3rd party Outsourced
- Cosmic Walker = Gaia
- Dynamic Slash = Sandlot
- Endless Ocean 2 = Arika
- Kensax = Shift (of Devil Dice/IQube fame!)
- Line Attack Heroes = Grezzo (ex-Mana team)
- Punch-Out = Next Level Games
- Sin and Punishment 2 = Treasure Video Games
- Spawn Smasher = ARTOON
- Wand of Magic = Taito (Garakuta Studio?)

???
- 100 Conversations! English Coversations
- NHK Trivia

...I'd guess the unknowns could be internal, maybe coming from someone like HAL, IntSys or Genius Sonority (all of whom have made similar quiz or training games on DS before). But really they could just as easily be outsourced (TOSE, indies-zero, etc).

It's also unclear who exactly is doing the GC Wiimakes... we need credit checks!

 

[lo zaffo]

I think that the great part of Nintendo's Wii 2009 line-up will die overlooked and under distributed like Captain Rainbow stuff. And, I dare to write, this is for the better, if the winners will be Pikmin 3 Wii or Zelda Wii.
Print few copies was the key strategy of Nintendo of Europe during GameCube days, and it was a safe choice because of limited market.

 

[Cosmonaut X]

I think that the great part of Nintendo's Wii 2009 line-up will die overlooked and under distributed like Captain Rainbow stuff. And, I dare to write, this is for the better, if the winner will be Pikmin 3 Wii or Zelda Wii.
Print few copies was the key strategy of Nintendo of Europe during GameCube days, and it was a safe choice because of limited market.

WTF?

How is this "better"? "Better" that small, quirky releases or second-tier series should "die overlooked"?

 

[jarrod]

WTF?

How is this "better"? "Better" that small, quirky releases or second-tier series should "die overlooked"?

Well, I'll take small print runs over no print runs. :lol

Damn you NOA!

 

[lo zaffo]

I think it's better for Nintendo to have a few of strong ips (Mario Kart to count one of those) than 100 losers: Odama, Captain Rainbow, Wario Shake Dimension, Eyeshield 21, SD Gundam Hammers, etc.
Well, I should be happier if market winning titles were as broad as possible, but it is reasonable ...

 

[jarrod]

I think it's better for Nintendo to have a few of strong ips (Mario Kart to count one of those) than 100 losers: Odama, Captain Rainbow, Wario Shake Dimension, Eyeshield 21, SD Gundam Hammers, etc.
Well, I should be happier if market winning titles were as broad as possible, but it is reasonable ...

Gundam Hammers sold near 100k iirc?


Bandai shoulda pumped out a quickie US release when they had the chance. They've really been dropping the ball on Gundam localizations since the merger. :/