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[farnham]

Trusty Bell 360 - 44k
Trusty Bell PS3 - 30k
Fragile Wii - 23k

worse then trusty bell wtf

 

[EDarkness]

Fragile bombed....before it even hit the shops.

I think Fragile's biggest problem is that it's just not that good of a game. The atmosphere is nice, the graphics are nice, but the gameplay just isn't that good. I bought it and so far the "game" part of it isn't holding my interest. It's a shame, too, because I had high hopes for it.

 

[ccbfan]

Its so disappointing that Zill'O is only barely outselling Fragile in one charts and is actually behind in another.

With the crazy large amount of advertisements of Zill'O and the extremely high development cost and care. This is kinda disappointing. Third parties should completely ignore the PSP.

Spoiler

I'm I doing it right Media Create people?

WTF is Zill'O anyways, this is the first time I ever heard of it.

 

[markatisu]

Third parties should completely ignore the PSP.

You did this just to get Spiegel to post didn't you :lol

 

[ksamedi]

That's certainly true. A 30-40k initial shipment is not encouraging. Still, at least it cleared one length (retail->consumer) of the "bomba chain".

I hope you understand with what I meant with all the publisher--> retailer talk the last time. A small minority of the posters seem to think that selling out of initial shipment means succes for the publisher. Its a succes for retailers sure, but I doubt Namco expected to sell 30, 40K for Fragile.

 

[cw_sasuke]

worse then trusty bell wtf

Trusty Bell is a Mainstream J-RPG.....fragile, not so much...is it even a rpg ?

 

[markatisu]

Trusty Bell is a Mainstream J-RPG.....fragile, not so much...is it even a rpg ?

Not from what I have played, its more of a action/point and click/investigative game

 

[wrowa]

I hope you understand with what I meant with all the publisher--> retailer talk the last time. A small minority of the posters seem to think that selling out of initial shipment means succes for the publisher. Its a succes for retailers sure, but I doubt Namco expected to sell 30, 40K for Fragile.

If Namco expected more they should have advertised it ;O

 

[Error]

Lately nope, they have had slightly altered numbers and positions.


From sinobi:

Zill 29k
Fragile 23k
Haruhi 19k
L4D 17k

DSi 45k
PSP 41k
Wii 26k
PS3 17k
DSL 14k
360 7k

Trusty Bell 360 - 44k
Trusty Bell PS3 - 30k
Fragile Wii - 23k

Haruhi PSP - 71k
Haruhi PS2 - 113k
Haruhi Wii - 19k

pretty slow week.

 

[ksamedi]

If Namco expected more they should have advertised it ;O

I think the problem is that its just not a game that is destined to sell well. Even with advertising, I would have expected it to bomb. Advertising is not the cure for everything. Sometimes a game just doesn't sell.

 

[Vinnk]

I think the problem is that its just not a game that is destined to sell well. Even with advertising, I would have expected it to bomb. Advertising is not the cure for everything. Sometimes a game just doesn't sell.

You have to wonder why they greenlight games they don't plan to promote. If they don't think they have sales potential to begin with, why make them?

 

[Spiegel]

From sinobi:

Top 10 + numbers


1. [Wii] Mario Tennis
2. [PSP] Zill'O Infinite Plus / 29k
3. [Wii] Taiko no Tatsujin
4. [PSP] Monster Hunter Portable 2G
5. [Wii] Fragile / 23k
6. [Nds] Wagamama Fashion
7. [Nds] Rhythm Tengoku Gold
8. [Wii] Haruhi / 19k
9. [Wii] Wii Fit
10. [360] Left 4 Dead / 17k



DSi 45k
PSP 41k
Wii 26k
PS3 17k
DSL 14k
360 7k

You did this just to get Spiegel to post didn't you :lol

Oh, I'm "that" guy now. I'll stop arguing

 

[BishopLamont]

I hope you understand with what I meant with all the publisher--> retailer talk the last time. A small minority of the posters seem to think that selling out of initial shipment means succes for the publisher. Its a succes for retailers sure, but I doubt Namco expected to sell 30, 40K for Fragile.

Shipments aren't dependent on retailer only though, they're a combination of both. Since we don't know the budget for the game (that includes everything from game dev to marketing), it's safe to say assume selling out your first shipment should be considered a success. Otherwise we'll be going back to LanceStern's method, which no one would like to see.

 

[ksamedi]

You have to wonder why they greenlight games they don't plan to promote. If they don't think they have sales potential to begin with, why make them?

Usually big advertising campaigns are greenlit after the company gets a hint of succes (for example relativly high retailer preorders) or if the product is highly marketeble. If the product does not do well at retail initially you can't expect advertising to save it from failure. Usually companies look at how much advertising can lift a products sales. If they think the lift is worth it, they will pump money into it. For a game like Fragile, I think Namco decided against a decent advertising budget because they didn't think the lift was worth it. You can see it as bomb policy I guess.

 

[Pureauthor]

Wonder where Devil Survivor will end up.

 

[Tenbatsu]

You have to wonder why they greenlight games they don't plan to promote. If they don't think they have sales potential to begin with, why make them?

It's the passion!

 

[Vinnk]

You can see it as bomb policy I guess.

Well it worked.

 

[schuelma]

I don't have last years numbers on me, but my impression is that hardware is drastically down pretty much across the board, with the exception of the 360. Wii is the biggest offender from what I remember. Of course last year Wii Fit had just released and Smash Brothers was coming out..

 

[frankie_baby]

figures for the wii are very low but still higher than ps360 combined, when is the next big wii release?

 

[AyuFanatic86]

I was a bit impressed by Fragile, I got it yesterday and the controls are well implemented (like Luigis Mansion meets something like Myst), the art direction is great even if the story is kinda weird.

Hey, more impressions please!
Also, could you say how hard this game is without the knowledge of Kanji? I can read Katakana and Hiragana, and planned to buy this game if there was no announcment for a western release soon.

 

[Spiegel]

figures for the wii are very low but still higher than ps360 combined, when is the next big wii release?

Monster Hunter 3 demo + free Monster Hunter G in April. I think

And Wii Sports Resort Q2

 

[Jaruru]

Monster Hunter 3 demo + free Monster Hunter G in April. I think

And Wii Sports Resort Q2

yea. the DQ and MH will make both DS and Wii explode.

 

[frankie_baby]

Monster Hunter 3 demo + free Monster Hunter G in April. I think

And Wii Sports Resort Q2

what seriously, nothing til MH3 demo, think ninty better get some new colours then

 

[schuelma]

Monster Hunter 3 demo + free Monster Hunter G in April. I think

And Wii Sports Resort Q2

Wii Sports resort is probably the next game that could/should spike sales. Until then there isn't much of note.

 

[Stumpokapow]

I don't have last years numbers on me, but my impression is that hardware is drastically down pretty much across the board, with the exception of the 360. Wii is the biggest offender from what I remember. Of course last year Wii Fit had just released and Smash Brothers was coming out..

Easy way to get data:
Garaph -> Weekly Overview (http://garaph.info/weeklyoverview.php)
Previous / Next week (http://garaph.info/weeklyoverview.php?week=2008-12-29)
Change date in title (http://garaph.info/weeklyoverview.php?week=2008-01-12)

Tada!

Week of 01-07

Wii  	82,232
GBASP 	319
GBM 	588
DSL 	102,919
PS2 	14,956
PS3 	34,322
PSP 	83,676
X360 	5,543

Week of 01-14

Wii 	75,824
GBASP 	243
GBM 	566
DSL 	90,536
PS2 	12,796
PS3 	32,264
PSP 	65,278
X360 	4,437

Ta-da!

 

[Dascu]

Time to bust out the coloured Wii's.

 

[schuelma]

Easy way to get data:
Garaph -> Weekly Overview (http://garaph.info/weeklyoverview.php)
Previous / Next week (http://garaph.info/weeklyoverview.php?week=2008-12-29)
Change date in title (http://garaph.info/weeklyoverview.php?week=2008-01-12)

Tada!

Week of 01-07

Wii  	82,232
GBASP 	319
GBM 	588
DSL 	102,919
PS2 	14,956
PS3 	34,322
PSP 	83,676
X360 	5,543

Week of 01-14

Wii 	75,824
GBASP 	243
GBM 	566
DSL 	90,536
PS2 	12,796
PS3 	32,264
PSP 	65,278
X360 	4,437

Ta-da!

I'm at work so Josh's site is blocked. But thanks for the tip, I wasn't quite sure how to do that on his site.

 

[farnham]

figures for the wii are very low but still higher than ps360 combined, when is the next big wii release?

another code is a semi big title as well (100k ish probably)

 

[frankie_baby]

another code is a semi big title as well (100k ish probably)

how did the ds version do? and has it been getting any promotion

 

[test_account]

It's okay.

But yeah this is probably why Capcom is the only non-Nintendo Japanese publisher that still has significant reigns on the market (both sales wise, and erosion wise (is that the word?) ). They release widely different games in terms of budget, play-style, demographic, and region appeal.

Ye, i agree to what you say

Shipments aren't dependent on retailer only though, they're a combination of both. Since we don't know the budget for the game (that includes everything from game dev to marketing), it's safe to say assume selling out your first shipment should be considered a success. Otherwise we'll be going back to LanceStern's method, which no one would like to see.

With success, do you mean to earn money? It is true as you say, we dont know the budget for the game, but from an interview regarding Fragile we know that the game has been in development for around 2 years. There was also a comment in the same interview that was "RPGs need a lot of money".

Fragile has actually been in development for around 2 years and became a fairly big project over time. "RPGs need a lot of money", he says. As expected, they intend to recoup these development costs with the game sales, and derived products. But the distribution and advertising won't be cheap either.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=14178856&postcount=105

"A lot of money" can be very relative though, it depends on what it is being compared to.

I am not sure on what price Fragile are selling for in Japan, but i checked over at amazon.co.jp and it said 7,980 Yen if i am not mistaken, which is about 89 US dollars. I am not sure how much money the developers/publishers get from those 89 US dollars, but lets say about about half, that they get $50.

The first shipment of Fragile was on about 36,000 copies if i am not mistaken. If all of those copies are getting sold, then it is 36,000 x $50 = 1.8 million US dollars.

The question is then, did it cost around 1.8 million US dollars to make Fragile (including everything from the development to the marketing as you mentioned)? If the developers/publisher gets 50 US dollars for each copy of Fragile that is sold that is. It could be more or it could be less for all that i know.

I am no game developer myself so unfortunately i dont really have any idea what it cost to make a Wii game, or a game for any other platforms for that matter I do however think that 1.8 million dollars sounds abit cheap concidering the developers (i think the intreview was with some of the Fragile developers at least) said that Fragile was a big project and that it has been in development for around 2 years.

Fragile might be released in Europa and/or in the US as well, so then the developers/publisher might make more money, but about the Fragile sales in Japan only, then i am not so sure if they will make money if they sell out the first shipment But then again, i am no game developer myself, so unfortunately i dont know if 1.8 million dollars is cheap or not for making a Wii game. It was just some of my thoughts

EDIT: I added some text.

 

[BishopLamont]

DS price drop incoming?

 

[Jocchan]

Otherwise we'll be going back to LanceStern's method, which no one would like to see.

I would.

Spoiler

I miss the laughs

 

[Stumpokapow]

how did the ds version do? and has it been getting any promotion

100k on the DS but Hotel Dusk did 200k and it's unclear if the growth was related to the fact that the original was an early title on a meh system or if Hotel Dusk actually appealed more to people.

 

[test_account]

By the way, how was the LanceStern method? I forgot to ask about that in my previous post.

 

[Datschge]

By the way, how was the LanceStern method?

He drew the line between success and failure at 300k units sales, ignoring all other possible parameters.

 

[test_account]

He drew the line between success and failure at 300k units sales, ignoring all other possible parameters.

Ah ok. I think that i remember his nick, but i dont think i remember which method he used to determine if a gam sold sucessfully or not, so i had to ask Thanks for the answer!

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

I'm at work so Josh's site is blocked.

Haha. Hard imagine Garaph is notorious enough outside of here to have made the notice of a specific block list. Do you have most things blocked by default and somehow NeoGAF is an exception?

 

[jarrod]

DS price drop incoming?

Why bother before DQXI? They can drop in the summer if things don't pick up.

Wii's more worrying imo. :/

 

[schuelma]

Haha. Hard imagine Garaph is notorious enough outside of here to have made the notice of a specific block list. Do you have most things blocked by default and somehow NeoGAF is an exception?

Yeah many sites are blocked, but somehow Facebook and GAF have so far escaped. If those two go I don't know what I'll do

 

[schuelma]

Wii's more worrying imo. :/

Yeah Wii has absolutely nothing to spur hardware until probably April at the earliest. They have some software that might sell ok in the meantime (Another Code, WE 09, One Piece), but nothing that will help this downward trend. The 2nd half of 09 is going to have to do gangbusters to catch up to 08.

 

[farnham]

Yeah Wii has absolutely nothing to spur hardware until probably April at the earliest. They have some software that might sell ok in the meantime (Another Code, WE 09, One Piece), but nothing that will help this downward trend. The 2nd half of 09 is going to have to do gangbusters to catch up to 08.

well we dont know which is the next game after another code

could be line wars or cosmic walker.. who knows..

 

[Stumpokapow]

Yeah many sites are blocked, but somehow Facebook and GAF have so far escaped. If those two go I don't know what I'll do

google "open proxy" and evaluate your options

 

[schuelma]

well we dont know which is the next game after another code

could be line wars or cosmic walker.. who knows..

Ok, but I really really doubt cosmic walker would do anything.

 

[markatisu]

Hey, more impressions please!
Also, could you say how hard this game is without the knowledge of Kanji? I can read Katakana and Hiragana, and planned to buy this game if there was no announcment for a western release soon.

To understand how to play the game and where to go is pretty easy, I mean everytime the game wants you to learn a new thing (like how to attack, how to use your flashlight) you get a scroll that you can go through which has pics and is pretty self-explanatory.

The story is kinda hard to follow since I do not read, write or speak any form of Japanese. I mean you get the "jist" of things but of course you are going to miss out on details and probably information that makes the story make sense.

But I had no problem getting from point A to point B in the few hours I played it.

Obviously I cannot tell if the game has a superb story but I think the controls work well and I enjoy the look of the game and the quality of the cut scenes.

At times it feels like a MGS game in the sense of you have more cutscenes then you do actual gameplay

 

[donny2112]

Weekly software data for 2007 is not available. However, first-half and full-year data for 2007 is.

Thanks!

I mean you get the "jist" of things

Japan + gist = jist

 

[markatisu]

Japan + gist = jist

Well apparently in addition to not knowing Japanese I do not even have a handle on English :lol

 

[jarrod]

Yeah Wii has absolutely nothing to spur hardware until probably April at the earliest. They have some software that might sell ok in the meantime (Another Code, WE 09, One Piece), but nothing that will help this downward trend. The 2nd half of 09 is going to have to do gangbusters to catch up to 08.

Agreed. It's actually got a pretty nice filler lineup though, but no real "stand outs" to drive things. :/

List (w/dates only)!


01.29.09 Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles: Echoes of Time (Square Enix)
01.29.09 Tomb Raider Underworld (Spike)
02.05.09 Another Code-R: Kioku no Tobira (Nintendo)
02.05.09 High School Musical 3: Senior Year DANCE! (Disney Interactive Studios)
02.12.09 Skate It (Electronic Arts)
02.19.09 Dead Rising: Zombie no Ikenie (Capcom)
02.19.09 Wii de Asobu: Metroid Prime (Nintendo)
02.19.09 SimAnimals (Electronic Arts)
02.26.09 One Piece Unlimited Cruise Episode 2: Mezameru Yuusha (Bandai)
02.26.09 Winning Eleven Playmaker 2009 (Konami)
03.05.09 Relaxuma: Minna de Goyururi Seikatsu
03.12.09 Boku to Sim no Machi Party (Electronic Arts)
03.12.09 Phantom Brave Wii (Nippon Ichi Soft)
03.12.09 Sonic to Ankoku no Kishi (SEGA)
03.12.09 We Cheer (Bandai)
03.19.09 Jikkyou Powerful Pro Yakyuu Next (Konami)
03.19.09 Monopoly (Electronic Arts)
03.19.09 Tiger Woods PGA TOUR 09 All-Play (Electronic Arts)
03.19.09 Winter Sports 2009: The Next Challenge (Arc System Works)
03.26.09 Suzumiya Haruhi no Heiretsu (SEGA)
03.26.09 Yu-Gi-Oh 5D's: Wheelie Breakers (Konami)
04.02.09 Winning Post World (KOEI)
04.23.09 Meja-Maji March (Square Enix)
04.23.09 Monster Hunter G (Capcom)
04.30.09 Fish Eyes Wii (Marvelous Entertainment)


...granted it's going to fill out for April, and there's WiiWare to also consider, but MHG looks like the only thing lined up that could crack 250k imo. :/

 

[goompapa]

I think Fragile's biggest problem is that it's just not that good of a game. The atmosphere is nice, the graphics are nice, but the gameplay just isn't that good. I bought it and so far the "game" part of it isn't holding my interest. It's a shame, too, because I had high hopes for it.

Nah, I don't think it even matters whether Fragile is any good or not. The shipment was ordered before the quality of the game was known.

The Wii audience just doesn't respond well to these kind of games(new core-game franchise, poor promotion).
Things are looking very rough for the Wii the early months of this year. I won't be surprised if the streams will cross more than a couple of times.

 

[donny2112]

The Wii audience just doesn't respond well to these kind of games(new core-game franchise, poor promotion).

Are you saying that the Wii audience is unique to not responding well to "new core-game franchises" with "poor promotion"?

 

[goompapa]

Agreed. It's actually got a pretty nice filler lineup though, but no real "stand outs" to drive things. :/

List (w/dates only)!


01.29.09 Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles: Echoes of Time (Square Enix)
01.29.09 Tomb Raider Underworld (Spike)
02.05.09 Another Code-R: Kioku no Tobira (Nintendo)
02.05.09 High School Musical 3: Senior Year DANCE! (Disney Interactive Studios)
02.12.09 Skate It (Electronic Arts)
02.19.09 Dead Rising: Zombie no Ikenie (Capcom)
02.19.09 Wii de Asobu: Metroid Prime (Nintendo)
02.19.09 SimAnimals (Electronic Arts)
02.26.09 One Piece Unlimited Cruise Episode 2: Mezameru Yuusha (Bandai)
02.26.09 Winning Eleven Playmaker 2009 (Konami)
03.05.09 Relaxuma: Minna de Goyururi Seikatsu
03.12.09 Boku to Sim no Machi Party (Electronic Arts)
03.12.09 Phantom Brave Wii (Nippon Ichi Soft)
03.12.09 Sonic to Ankoku no Kishi (SEGA)
03.12.09 We Cheer (Bandai)
03.19.09 Jikkyou Powerful Pro Yakyuu Next (Konami)
03.19.09 Monopoly (Electronic Arts)
03.19.09 Tiger Woods PGA TOUR 09 All-Play (Electronic Arts)
03.19.09 Winter Sports 2009: The Next Challenge (Arc System Works)
03.26.09 Suzumiya Haruhi no Heiretsu (SEGA)
03.26.09 Yu-Gi-Oh 5D's: Wheelie Breakers (Konami)
04.02.09 Winning Post World (KOEI)
04.23.09 Meja-Maji March (Square Enix)
04.23.09 Monster Hunter G (Capcom)
04.30.09 Fish Eyes Wii (Marvelous Entertainment)


...granted it's going to fill out for April, and there's WiiWare to also consider, but MHG looks like the only thing lined up that could crack 250k imo. :/

These are the only games who might passed 100k imo(yikes!!). I have serious doubt about Another Code though.
I don't think WE will since it barely crossed 100k last year and the Wii has slowed down drastically ever since in terms 3rd party core-games sales.