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[Flying_Phoenix]

Well said. I'd say Capcom is probably adjusting the best. Success with more western franchises on the hi def systems, Monster Hunter on PSP, and then MH3 on Wii with the likelihood of more Resident Evil stuff as well. They're in good position.

That's probably because Capcom actually sees what's right in front of them, not what they want to see.

I think MH3 is pretty solid for 2009. They wouldn't be releasing MHG with the demo in April if they weren't confident that MH3 would be a 2009 release. Also, you have Tales of Ten, Samurai Warriors 3, and probably Crystal Bearers in 2009 as well. Those certainly aren't the top of the top franchises, but I'd argue those are a clear step above what 3rd parties have been putting out on the Wii (with the exception of DQ:Swords).

The problem is that is only 3 games (Samurai Warriors series isn't that big in Japan from what I remember). I know Nintendo will probably announce something down the line but these games better come quick before the console turns this sales trend into standard.

By blip I mean the system sales werent affected. There was no shake up because of it. AC came and existed. It was a guaranteed million seller. It did that. Routine.

Except that the Wii did see a significant jump in hardware sales when Animal Crossing was released.

 

[Rolf NB]

I guess the best comparison would be King's Field IV?

http://garaph.info/linecomparegamej.../height/300/title/710+-+King's+Field+IV+-+PS2

Even despite that, I still think Demon's Souls' performance is disappointing. Its role in the overall software catalog is different now, it's a bigger fish in a smaller pond. The high sell-through suggests that it was undershipped, but this observation is academic at this point. This kind of damage can't be fixed after the fact.

 

[jeremy1456]

Except that the Wii did see a significant jump in hardware sales when Animal Crossing was released.

That, itself could be attributed mostly to the holiday season.

 

[Hcoregamer00]

And Wii clearly gets its strength from first party games. Nintendo cant count on anyone else to support it. They have to do it themselves.

I think we are past the point where a DS situation happens

I agree that we are past the point where a DS situation happens.

All Nintendo has to do now is just to build relationships and hope that they will come in droves when Nintendo dominates from the get go with Wii 2.

Like it or not, Nintendo starts the next generation with a HUGE advantage over Sony and Microsoft.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Most of your statements are right, but this one is just plain WRONG.

I know it's an exaggeration, but I was curious as to how much of one. Cranking the numbers, it seems like Monster Hunter + Tales + Gundam + Winning Eleven covers about 1/3 of PSP software sales.

 

[Cosmozone]

First Day Sales (02/05)
[WII] Another Code:R - Kioku no Tobira (Nintendo) - 6,000 (20%)

Noooo! ;_; Nobody wants to play adventures, sad.

 

[Durante]

Even despite that, I still think Demon's Souls' performance is disappointing. Its role in the overall software catalog is different now, it's a bigger fish in a smaller pond.

I really can't agree with that. When King's Field 4 was released, there were no similar games on PS2, just like there are no games like Demon's Soul on PS3 now (in fact, one could argue that Oblivion is closer than anything that was on PS2 at the time, even though it's still very different). I'd say it's a very good comparison: it's a game in the same genre by the same developer that had a similar reception (in terms of reviews). The biggest difference seems to be that it was released on a less successful console, and yet it managed to outsell KF's first week in its first day.

 

[Spiegel]

I know it's an exaggeration, but I was curious as to how much of one. Cranking the numbers, it seems like Monster Hunter + Tales + Gundam + Winning Eleven covers about 1/3 of PSP software sales.

~30 of the best selling games accounting for 1/3 of the total software sales is pretty usual

The 30 best ds selling games account for more than half of the total software sales in your database.

 

[Stumpokapow]

I really can't agree with that. When King's Field 4 was released, there were no similar games on PS2, just like there are no games like Demon's Soul on PS3 now (in fact, one could argue that Oblivion is closer than anything that was on PS2 at the time, even though it's still very different).

Okay but on the other hand when King's Field 4 was released, it was a Z-tier (prominence, not quality) game from a B-tier publisher on a console full of AAA-tier (prominence, not quality) games from every publisher under the sun.

Do you feel that assessment is accurate for Demon's Souls and the PS3?

 

[bttb]

.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

The problem is that is only 3 games (Samurai Warriors series isn't that big in Japan from what I remember).

It's pretty big. Perhaps you've more easily missed it since there hasn't been a main game release in nearly three years, while Dynasty and Gundam versions have flown more freely. The first one topped a million, the second half a million, and each had expansion/spinoffs that added further hundreds of thousands.

However, we're probably in a bit of a Tales situation here, where a series that was once pretty well locked on one system is now spread all over the place, and nothing is getting near the series previous highs. Actually it looks like since Samurai Warriors 2, the biggest of all Warriors releases has been PS2's Warriors Orochi in 2007 at over 600K. Nothing on other systems has done half as well.

 

[Kenka]

Noooo! ;_; Nobody wants to play adventures, sad.

Fuck adventure genre

Spoiler

yeah, I mostly wanted to find an excuse to use this image

 

[Durante]

Okay but on the other hand when King's Field 4 was released, it was a Z-tier (prominence, not quality) game from a B-tier publisher on a console full of AAA-tier (prominence, not quality) games from every publisher under the sun.

Do you feel that assessment is accurate for Demon's Souls and the PS3?

I don't know how prominent it is in Japan, so I can't answer regarding that. Looking at all their recent releases From Software still seems very much like a B-tier publisher, so at least that hasn't changed. You do have a point about the library taken as a whole, but I believe that looking at individual genres makes more sense for niche games.

Edit: I just saw that Demon's Soul was published by SCE. That invalidates my point about the publisher, but I'm not sure how much it really changes things without knowing how much it was advertised -- having SCE on the box is not like Nintendo or even S-E.

 

[Hcoregamer00]

Noooo! ;_; Nobody wants to play adventures, sad.

Unless is it is a sexy court battle saga.

I bet that Gyakuten Kenji will do VERY WELL in Japan.

 

[jeremy1456]

Unless is it is a sexy court battle saga.

I bet that Gyakuten Kenji will do VERY WELL in Japan.

I might be completely mistaken, but didn't it already come out?

EDIT:

Oh... hmm. Guess not.

 

[Link]

Like it or not, Nintendo starts the next generation with a HUGE advantage over Sony and Microsoft.

The same could have been said of Sony before this gen started, and they had a ton more third party support behind them.

 

[Haunted]

I agree that we are past the point where a DS situation happens.

All Nintendo has to do now is just to build relationships and hope that they will come in droves when Nintendo dominates from the get go with Wii 2.

Like it or not, Nintendo starts the next generation with a HUGE advantage over Sony and Microsoft.

True. Another reason why they need to increase the power of the WiiHD to PS360 level, so third parties can use the tech they've developed for those platforms this gen from the get go.

Imo, of course.

The same could have been said of Sony before this gen started, and they had a ton more third party support behind them.

Yes, but I have a feeling Nintendo won't price themselves out of the market with the WiiHD.

And don't forget the three-generation rule.

 

[Hcoregamer00]

The same could have been said of Sony before this gen started, and they had a ton more third party support behind them.

Yeah, but Sony screwed up with the price. Had Sony launched between $300 and $400, they would have been a huge success.

True. Another reason why they need to increase the power of the WiiHD to PS360 level, so third parties can use the tech they've developed for those platforms this gen from the get go.

Imo, of course.

Exactly, one of the most common arguments that developers make about not going to the Wii is that they lose 2-3 years of development time that was spent making HD assets.

With Wii in HD-level graphics, that excuse is not valid anymore.

With that along with strong mind share, they go into the next generation running. I could forsee PS2 levels of dominance with the Wii 2.

 

[RpgN]

I agree that we are past the point where a DS situation happens.

All Nintendo has to do now is just to build relationships and hope that they will come in droves when Nintendo dominates from the get go with Wii 2.

Like it or not, Nintendo starts the next generation with a HUGE advantage over Sony and Microsoft.

Nintendo did support the wii heavily in its first year when it comes to core games and then dropped the ball pretty quickly. It wasn't a good transition like the ds where it had support a little longer. It seems that it's too late for the wii to become the next ds, but there are still big games coming that have a small chance in doing it (DQX, MH3). I don't know if it's too late or not, but I agree that third party support will be much stronger with wii 2.

 

[drkOne]

With that along with strong mind share, they go into the next generation running. I could forsee PS2 levels of dominance with the Wii 2.

If they don't market their next console with the same purpose of "family gaming" as this one they'll probably lose a lot of costumers.

Nintendo is winning with this strategy, first party Wii games are always on top of charts on US/Europe, so I don't see them risking too much.
At least in terms of third party I doubt the Wii 2 will achieve the levels of what the PS2 was able to achieve. If they keep up like this I doubt much will change even by making their console HD.

Edit: Re-Thinking about it I guess if developers start delivering good HD games for the Wii 2, core gamers will consider the Wii 2 a must-have console > core games will get a bump on sales > there will be more interesting games > more gamers will buy the Wii... So, yeah, Nintendo is in a good position and will have an huge advantage on Sony and Microsoft at the start of the next gen, just hope they don't screw it up like Sony did this gen.

 

[Link]

True. Another reason why they need to increase the power of the WiiHD to PS360 level, so third parties can use the tech they've developed for those platforms this gen from the get go.

But wasn't that the logic for getting lots of third party support for the Wii? Developers could just use the tech from their PS2/Xbox projects. That never really panned out.

 

[freddy]

I think the Wii and other home consoles have one huge disadvantage in Japan, at least this time round. They require you to be at home and invest a lot of time in front of the television. The majority of console titles that have been hugely successful there are pick up and play, in short bursts if you desire. Wii Music and Animal crossing not so much.

Nintendo and Sony are quite well positioned, in that they have portable systems selling very well. Given Wiis' success around the rest of the globe I don't think huge changes are necessary at all. They have some things coming and up their sleeves. Sony? Well, they are just pulling their belt tight.

 

[Cosmonaut X]

But wasn't that the logic for getting lots of third party support for the Wii? Developers could just use the tech from their PS2/Xbox projects. That never really panned out.

No, the logic was that developers would be able to apply their experience and tech on the GameCube to give them a good start on a very similar platform.

Unfortunately, many developers had largely abandoned the GameCube or had never really exploited its hardware in the same way as a handful of third parties and Nintendo themselves had, and most of the rest had shifted onto developing engines and pipelines for the entirely different PS3/360.

 

[Link]

So what makes you think the Wii2 is going to be similar enough to the PS3/360 for that to happen next time?

 

[Cosmonaut X]

So what makes you think the Wii2 is going to be similar enough to the PS3/360 for that to happen next time?

Nothing, I was just adding to your point

 

[Link]

Oh. Well... carry on then.

 

[Cosmonaut X]

Oh. Well... carry on then.

Sir, yes sir!

;-)

 

[Flying_Phoenix]

Yeah, but Sony screwed up with the price. Had Sony launched between $300 and $400, they would have been a huge success.



Exactly, one of the most common arguments that developers make about not going to the Wii is that they lose 2-3 years of development time that was spent making HD assets.

With Wii in HD-level graphics, that excuse is not valid anymore.

With that along with strong mind share, they go into the next generation running. I could forsee PS2 levels of dominance with the Wii 2.

I feel that the Wii 2 will be a Nintendo DS in terms of power compared to it's competitors. Far weaker (as the NDS is far weaker then the N64 and PSX) but so easy to develop for with such great tools that you can make games that look just as good as their games (or even better in the 32/64 bit case). I'd also imagine they'd adopt the NDS form of not having standards for graphics or game type.

I can have 2D SNES graphics to a game that looks like a 2D Dreamcast game like Kumantachi.

I can have a 3D game that looks as bad as Flower, Sun, and Rain to as good as Moon where it nears last gen standards.

 

[donny2112]

(as the NDS is far weaker then the N64 and PSX)

No.

 

[bttb]

.

 

[Flying_Phoenix]

No.

Umm actually that is factually yes the DS is weaker then the N64 and PSX in polygon count and nearly every other way. It's just that it's far easier to develop for and development has improved over the years.

 

[BishopLamont]

I feel that the Wii 2 will be a Nintendo DS in terms of power compared to it's competitors. Far weaker (as the NDS is far weaker then the N64 and PSX) but so easy to develop for with such great tools that you can make games that look just as good as their games (or even better in the 32/64 bit case). I'd also imagine they'd adopt the NDS form of not having standards for graphics or game type.

I can have 2D SNES graphics to a game that looks like a 2D Dreamcast game like Kumantachi.

I can have a 3D game that looks as bad as Flower, Sun, and Rain to as good as Moon where it nears last gen standards.

Watch as Nintendo releases a more powerful console then MS/Sony's next gen.

 

[donny2112]

Umm actually that is factually yes the DS is weaker then the N64 and PSX in polygon count and nearly every other way.

The DS was designed to be a portable N64-level system just as the GBA was designed to be a portable SNES-level system, and the GameBoy was designed to be a portable NES-level system. From past readings, I always got the impression that DS > N64 overall considering the fact its a portable and doesn't need to output to a TV even though it was missing AA and I think the frame buffer was smaller (again due to not having to output to a TV). Sort of like how overall Wii > Xbox even though the Xbox has a couple of extras that Wii lacks.

 

[Eteric Rice]

The DS was designed to be a portable N64-level system just as the GBA was designed to be a portable SNES-level system, and the GameBoy was designed to be a portable NES-level system. From past readings, I always got the impression that DS > N64 overall considering the fact its a portable and doesn't need to output to a TV even though it was missing AA and I think the frame buffer was smaller (again due to not having to output to a TV). Sort of like how overall Wii > Xbox even though the Xbox has a couple of extras that Wii lacks.

I think he's speaking from a specs vs. specs point of view, in which he would be correct.

But yeah, because the DS doesn't have to render as high of a resolution, developers can do more with it's hardware than they could with the N64.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

True. Another reason why they need to increase the power of the WiiHD to PS360 level

I really think the only way that isn't happening is if they make me the person solely responsible for designing hardware.

But wasn't that the logic for getting lots of third party support for the Wii? Developers could just use the tech from their PS2/Xbox projects. That never really panned out.

It'll probably work out a little better next time. Nobody's going in fooled that severely increasing complexity again is the key to keeping access to a PS2-sized market, and they'd better start allocating resources years in advance if they don't want to be behind.

 

[Neo C.]

Given Wiis' success around the rest of the globe I don't think huge changes are necessary at all. They have some things coming and up their sleeves.

I agree. I also think they have done a very good job so far in terms of software. There's a fair amount of good to excellent games available for everyone, yet they give enough room for the third parties to breath. They certainly made the mistake of overestimating the relevance of Wii Music and Animal Crossing, hence the lack of counter measures in the last two months. Nintendo really should release new colours, some limited editions etc. These measures seldom hurt the sales or the image.

 

[Flying_Phoenix]

That, itself could be attributed mostly to the holiday season.

Yeah but the Wii jumped really high and even started competing with the PSP. Though it was probably a mix of both Animal Crossing and the Holiday Season.

I think he's speaking from a specs vs. specs point of view, in which he would be correct.

But yeah, because the DS doesn't have to render as high of a resolution, developers can do more with it's hardware than they could with the N64.

Exactly.

Though it's more so due to developers being much more experienced now with far better tools as well as the system being pie to develop for.

I agree. I also think they have done a very good job so far in terms of software. There's a fair amount of good to excellent games available for everyone, yet they give enough room for the third parties to breath. They certainly made the mistake of overestimating the relevance of Wii Music and Animal Crossing, hence the lack of counter measures in the last two months. Nintendo really should release new colours, some limited editions etc. These measures seldom hurt the sales or the image.

Nintendo did an amazing job 2007 to mid 2008. But after Mario Kart Wii it was as if all the momentum stopped. I am aware of Animal Crossing Wii but that isn't my type of title (I do admit it is unfair of me to cast it out though). There was Wario Land but...well let's just say I don't want to talk about it. And yeah while Wii Music is a "casual" game it definitely wasn't as good as the previous "casual" entrys.

The holes that are open for third parites are showing signs of filling. Shaun White has been doing well and Ubisoft is still putting up commercials for it which is a good sign.

 

[Kurosaki Ichigo]

Archived Famitsu Data from Oricon:
2006 PS2 TOP10 by Month: Apr / May / Jun / Jul / Aug / Sep / Oct / Nov / Dec
2007 PS2 TOP10 by Month: Jan / Feb / Mar / Apr / May / Jun / Jul / Aug / Sep / Oct / Nov / Dec

Past Famitsu Data from Oricon:
2008 PS2 TOP10 by Month: Jul / Aug / Sep / Oct / Nov / Dec

That's damn awesome. Just checked October and Tales of the Abyss budget re-release is there at 6052 for a 114768 total. So 671,233, which makes it pass Phantasia PSX, Eternia PSX and Rebirth PS2. Its now 3rd biggest behind ToD and ToD2

 

[dionysus]

I don't know that Nintendo in the home console arena will enjoy such a huge advantage in third party development come next generation.

The way I see it, the two lessons learned from this generation are.

1) If you are a going for a global market, do not put your eggs all in one basket at the start of a generation. Nothing is certain about the winner of the next console war.
2) If you are going for the Japanese market only, develop most of your titles for portables, not home consoles. Of course publishers will not abandon home consoles, not saying that.

 

[Captain Smoker]

Archived Famitsu Data from Oricon:
2006 PS2 TOP10 by Month: Apr / May / Jun / Jul / Aug / Sep / Oct / Nov / Dec
2007 PS2 TOP10 by Month: Jan / Feb / Mar / Apr / May / Jun / Jul / Aug / Sep / Oct / Nov / Dec

Past Famitsu Data from Oricon:
2008 PS2 TOP10 by Month: Jul / Aug / Sep / Oct / Nov / Dec

Thx bttb.

 

[Jokeropia]

~30 of the best selling games accounting for 1/3 of the total software sales is pretty usual

The 30 best ds selling games account for more than half of the total software sales in your database.

The 30 best selling PSP games are not exclusively Monster Hunter + Tales + Gundam + Winning Eleven so your comparison with DS is flawed. In fact, if you look at the actual 30 best selling PSP games, you'll find that they make up a larger portion of the total PSP software sales than the 30 best selling DS games make up of total DS software sales. (Though not by much.)

 

[Spiegel]

The 30 best selling PSP games are not exclusively Monster Hunter + Tales + Gundam + Winning Eleven so your comparison with DS is flawed. In fact, if you look at the actual 30 best selling PSP games, you'll find that they make up a larger portion of the total PSP software sales than the 30 best selling DS games make up of total DS software sales. (Though not by much.)

That's why I said they are 30 OF the best selling psp games. And not the 30 best selling psp games.

And of course the 30 best selling psp games would account for more sales than the 30 best selling ds games. DS has 496 entries on the database, psp only 245. The comparison is to show that 30 of the best selling games accounting for 1/3 of the sales is not something unusual.

 

[schuelma]

Just looking through last year's threads, hardware sales across the board are down. Don't know if its a lack of huge titles (for Wii, Wii Fit had only recently came out and Smash was just released), or maybe the recession is really affecting things.

 

[Flying_Phoenix]

Just looking through last year's threads, hardware sales across the board are down. Don't know if its a lack of huge titles (for Wii, Wii Fit had only recently came out and Smash was just released), or maybe the recession is really affecting things.

Pretty much. It only seems that the 360 has gained. Is it at the point where I can say that it is "competiting" or is a "main console" in Japan yet? I mean a remember the PS3 pulling numbers like that not too long ago.

It's pretty big. Perhaps you've more easily missed it since there hasn't been a main game release in nearly three years, while Dynasty and Gundam versions have flown more freely. The first one topped a million, the second half a million, and each had expansion/spinoffs that added further hundreds of thousands.

However, we're probably in a bit of a Tales situation here, where a series that was once pretty well locked on one system is now spread all over the place, and nothing is getting near the series previous highs. Actually it looks like since Samurai Warriors 2, the biggest of all Warriors releases has been PS2's Warriors Orochi in 2007 at over 600K. Nothing on other systems has done half as well.

I see, thanks for shedding light on the subject. And yeah it seems that it has definitely gone down in popularity. I expect 230-300k for Warriors 3.

 

[schuelma]

I see, thanks for shedding light on the subject. And yeah it seems that it has definitely gone down in popularity. I expect 230-300k for Warriors 3.

Which doesn't sound that impressive...and yet if it did those numbers (say 300K) it would be higher than any 3rd party Wii game outside of DQ:Swords and Taiko Drum.

 

[Rpgmonkey]

That's damn awesome. Just checked October and Tales of the Abyss budget re-release is there at 6052 for a 114768 total. So 671,233, which makes it pass Phantasia PSX, Eternia PSX and Rebirth PS2. Its now 3rd biggest behind ToD and ToD2

It only needed that much just to pass them? Talk about close.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Just looking through last year's threads, hardware sales across the board are down. Don't know if its a lack of huge titles (for Wii, Wii Fit had only recently came out and Smash was just released), or maybe the recession is really affecting things.

I've shown some individual system comparisons in recent weeks, but here's the sum of all hardware:

 

[Eteric Rice]

I agree that we are past the point where a DS situation happens.

I just wanted to reply to this since I just now saw it.

I don't think it's to late for that, really. It depends on how long the Wii is going to be around. Also depends on if Nintendo will re-release the Wii or not (like they did with DS -> DS Lite).

 

[donny2112]

Also depends on if Nintendo will re-release the Wii or not (like they did with DS -> DS Lite).

A console redesign is less effective than a handheld due to not having to carry around the console. However a controller redesign (e.g. Motion+ ) could have some of that affect, since you do carry that around.

 

[Flying_Phoenix]

Which doesn't sound that impressive...and yet if it did those numbers (say 300K) it would be higher than any 3rd party Wii game outside of DQ:Swords and Taiko Drum.

Not impressive at all. But again this is how far serious (I could just say game not made by Nintendo) has fallen in Japan. There are very few games that even reach the 200K mark.

I mean is it that hard to observe the market and make games that appeal to them? Isn't it obvious that local exploration multiplayer is the way to go due Monster Hunter's massive success? Yet the only game that has seemed to mimic is Phantasy Star Portable which has been met with huge success. Yet most publishers are either releasing A or AA games of the same ye old formula or innovative quirky B or A budgeted games that are pushed so little that they are doomed from the start.